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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #441
  • Apr 5, 2013 7:35pm Apr 5, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting Erebus
Good day 100PipsADay Congratulations on a very fine thread here, I have been following only for this last week now, but it has been 100%, oh, OK 95%, as I just stopped reading all other threads here on FF. And even more congratulations on the excellent results posted yesterday; I mean the overall results, not just the results of past few days of extraordinary price action. This thread should soon have the largest following of any one would expect, but then maybe most will not have...
Hi Erebus!

Thank you for the kind words. First of all I would like to say that I like the book you have there! If you would like an electronic copy let me know and I'll get that over to you. I also have a HUGE list of e-books all geared for trading.

Anyways, on to your questions...

My trading style mainly revolves around the Third Screen Strategy explained throughout this thread. It has proven itself to be profitable and reliable, so there isn't any real need to change it. However, I am a firm believer in Price Action @ Support / Resistance (PASR) especially when it comes to the larger time frames e.g. weekly & monthly. This helps me to identify potential trend reversals which will then in turn help me to make better trades on the D1.

I don't use the H4 chart as the H1 seems to be ideal for our strategies' entry points. By all means though, you can test the H4 time frame if you choose to do so.

Everybody and anybody is welcome to post their charts, analysis, projections, thoughts, etc... any time! In fact, it is encouraged. Trading is a lonely business and is always changing so the more people we have to bounce ideas off of the better off we'll be in my opinion.

As for my "trading setup" I have a 22" monitor on my desk in my living room which is hooked up to a HP desktop Nothing real fancy as that is unnecessary for our trading style. We don't need to be glued to our 7 different computer screens all day, however, we can if we want to. This is why I prefer a Swing Trading approach, it allows one to be flexible as positions are typically held anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of weeks.

USD/CAD: I don't really like this pair... It's too slow for my liking! So I simply don't trade it.

As far as position sizing and money management I prefer not to really get into that at all for various reasons. It is definitely better to be under leveraged then it is to be over leveraged though. We want to be able to stick around for the long haul and blowing up accounts is not the way to accomplish this! I guess position sizing and leverage all boils down to personal preference and ones risk tolerance...

Hope this helps... Enjoy your weekend Erebus!
  • #442
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:48pm Apr 5, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting whatfx
well, you seem to be a very experienced trader. how long have you been trading ? your technical analysis and knowledge is way above the folks that lurk here on forexfactory. your analysis suggests you are probably working for a broker or other financial companies. and hence your thorough knowledge and discussions. its not a problem if you are. its good to know the truth so that we know we have one of the experienced ''big boys'' in our midst while you were shorting the jpy cross pairs recently, i was hesitant in taking any shorts, which i expressed...
Hi Whatfx,
Would you please share your analysis or relevant links which help you to figure out trend strength?

Have a good weekend. Thanks.

Regards.
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #443
  • Edited 7:37am Apr 6, 2013 4:50am | Edited 7:37am
Great thread and some phenomenal forward testing. This was one of the first systems I traded almost 7 years ago. I pretty much used the system as described by Elder but with heiken ashi candles to guage an entry. Weekly mac D histogram, Daily stochastic for over bought/sold pull backs and then the hourly chart entry using Heiken Ashi and trendlines. Taking profits at the Daily stochastic extreme but locking in along the way once a 2:1 RR had been achieved. I used to get some great RR trades from the hourly and losses were small in comparison.

I see you have some great results but it concerns me that your pip value would have to be quite small to take into consideration the large stops and the many pairs traded. What are your profit and stop values based on? Sorry if this was mentioned earlier. Great addition with regards incorporating weekly or daily SR levels to determine potential trend reversal areas before the lagging macd or ema has time to change.
  • #444
  • Apr 6, 2013 5:14am Apr 6, 2013 5:14am
EURJPY hited the TP yesterday.

2nd Chart: Current Open Positions
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  • #445
  • Apr 6, 2013 5:39am Apr 6, 2013 5:39am
Quoting Fishcoo
EURJPY hited the TP yesterday. 2nd Chart: Current Open Positions {image} {image}

well done fishcoo, that you ''hited'' the tp !


but jokes aside, a very good bunch of results for you. keep up the good work. i assume you are trading live ?
  • #446
  • Apr 6, 2013 6:09am Apr 6, 2013 6:09am
Quoting whatfx
well done fishcoo, that you ''hited'' the tp ! but jokes aside, a very good bunch of results for you. keep up the good work. i assume you are trading live ?
Thank you whatfx

I just follow the Third Screen Strategy and let's see what will happen after a long time.Yes,I am trading a real accout.

BR
Fishcoo
  • #447
  • Apr 6, 2013 6:28am Apr 6, 2013 6:28am
Quoting Porkpie
Great thread and some phenomenal forward testing. This was one of the first systems I traded almost 7 years ago. I pretty much used the system as described by Elder but with heiken ashi candles to guage an entry. Weekly mac D histogram, Daily stochastic for over bought/sold pull backs and then the hourly chart entry using Heiken Ashi and trendlines. Taking profits at the Daily stochastic extreme but locking in along the way once a 2:1 RR had been achieved. I used to get some great RR trades from the hourly and losses were tiny. I see you have some...
I'm glad there are other more veteran traders than I who see the value of this system.

As far as trading ALL of the pairs discussed with all max positions that just won't work unless you either A) have a very large account balance or B) are trading Micro lots so the trick is to find out what works best for you.

Do you want to trade one pair with more volume?
Or would you rather trade multiple pairs with less volume?

One just needs to figure out what works best for them but I did want to point out that this system is working on multiple currency pairs and results have been phenomenal!

SL & TP: I have tried many many many different SL and TP parameters but these areas tend to work the best for our strategy and time frame used. Not any real formula, just a bunch of trial an error

Feel free to stick around the thread and post your trade ideas, charts, analysis, projections, etc... Enjoy the weekend PorkPie!
  • #448
  • Apr 6, 2013 6:30am Apr 6, 2013 6:30am
Quoting Fishcoo
Thank you whatfx I just follow the Third Screen Strategy and let's see what will happen after a long time.Yes,I am trading a real accout. BR Fishcoo
Congrats on your trades Fishcoo! This week we are bound to be hitting more TP targets with our current open trades. I'm just hoping that we can get another pull back so that H1 shows over sold... I am expecting USD/JPY and the cross pairs to be extremely bullish this coming week.
  • #449
  • Apr 6, 2013 6:46am Apr 6, 2013 6:46am
Quoting Fishcoo
Thank you whatfx I just follow the Third Screen Strategy and let's see what will happen after a long time.Yes,I am trading a real accout. BR Fishcoo
I also had two positions reach their TP targets late Friday before market closed.
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  • #450
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:16pm Apr 6, 2013 11:16pm
Hi 100PipsADay

What do you think about EURCAD?D1 MACD show bullish,but the bar closed blew EMA50 .It seems that EMA50 acts as a very important resistance and I think the weekly trend is still down ,so it is better not to trade this pair at this time .Maybe wait until the D1 MACD show bearish again.
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  • #451
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:23pm Apr 6, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting Fishcoo
Hi 100PipsADay What do you think about EURCAD?D1 MACD show bullish,but the bar closed blew EMA50 .It seems that EMA50 acts as a very important resistance and I think the weekly trend is still down ,so it is better not to trade this pair at this time .Maybe wait until the D1 MACD show bearish again. {image}
Hi Fishcoo,

I will more than likely sit the next couple of days out on EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD and see what happens as Weekly trends are clearly down but D1 MACD is now bullish.

Probably going to mainly focus on the JPY cross pair this week but we'll see what happens.

Hope you are enjoying your weekend buddy.

*I'll let you know before I enter any positions with EUR/AUD and/or EUR/CAD
  • #452
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:30pm Apr 6, 2013 11:30pm
Quoting Fishcoo
Hi 100PipsADay What do you think about EURCAD?D1 MACD show bullish,but the bar closed blew EMA50 .It seems that EMA50 acts as a very important resistance and I think the weekly trend is still down ,so it is better not to trade this pair at this time .Maybe wait until the D1 MACD show bearish again. {image}
Or can we think for Long when price will move above 50EMA (break the resistance)? As D1 MACD signals UP.
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #453
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:37pm Apr 6, 2013 11:37pm
Quoting khaled_ctg
Or can we think for Long when price will move above 50EMA (break the resistance)? As D1 MACD signals UP.
Yep, as of right now though EUR is going to gap down by about 100 pips against AUD and CAD...
  • #454
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:53pm Apr 6, 2013 11:53pm
I found CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, USDJPY weekly MACD and Daily MACD is up. So I think these 4 pairs are good for Long trade. Am I right?
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #455
  • Apr 7, 2013 12:00am Apr 7, 2013 12:00am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi Fishcoo, I will more than likely sit the next couple of days out on EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD and see what happens as Weekly trends are clearly down but D1 MACD is now bullish. Probably going to mainly focus on the JPY cross pair this week but we'll see what happens. Hope you are enjoying your weekend buddy. *I'll let you know before I enter any positions with EUR/AUD and/or EUR/CAD
Yes , i see. The JPY cross pairs are more safer trades now.The trend is very clear.

Hope you are profitable next week.
  • #456
  • Apr 7, 2013 12:03am Apr 7, 2013 12:03am
Quoting khaled_ctg
I found CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, USDJPY weekly MACD and Daily MACD is up. So I think these 4 pairs are good for Long trade. Am I right?
Hi haled_ctg

Yes , you are right.The important thing is that the Weekly trend is also bullish .So it is good for Long trade ,just wait until H1 show "Over Sold".

BR
Fishcoo
  • #457
  • Edited 1:48am Apr 7, 2013 12:09am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting khaled_ctg
I found CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, USDJPY weekly MACD and Daily MACD is up. So I think these 4 pairs are good for Long trade. Am I right?
Correct

We have strong weekly uptrends for ALL JPY pairs and D1 MACD is also bullish therefore we can buy any and all JPY cross pairs once H1 is over sold.

This week should be an excellent week for JPY cross pair BULLS!
  • #458
  • Apr 7, 2013 12:09am Apr 7, 2013 12:09am
Quoting Fishcoo
Yes , i see. The JPY cross pairs are more safer trades now.The trend is very clear. Hope you are profitable next week.
Thanks FishCoo, am looking forward to this week!
  • #459
  • Edited 9:04am Apr 7, 2013 7:45am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I had a detailed response to this but my browser just froze up on me! Anyways, I'll try it again... I agree with you that trading during high impact news releases can be risky, however, this system is purely technical so we disregard any and all fundamentals. From my experience it is clear that most news events rarely can reverse the current trend from a weekly perspective but will cause "spikes" which typically knock traders out of their current positions if their SL is too tight. Unfortunately for most here, this is exactly what happened...
Hi Everybody,
I have just seen that my broker posted a story in the FaceBook. I just want to share it with everybody here.

There was once a man who lived by the side of the road and sold hot dogs. He was hard of hearing so he had no radio - he had trouble with his eyes, so he read no newspapers and of course he didn't look at television. But he sold very good hot dogs. He put up signs on the highway telling everyone how good they were, he stood on the side of the road and cried out to all that past 'buy a hot dog, they are the best in town'.

And people bought his hot dogs and he increased his meat and bun orders. He bought a bigger stove to take care of all the extra business. He finally got his son to come and help him out with his business.

But then something happen, his son who had been well educated said . . . ' Father, haven't you been listening to the radio or reading the newspapers or watching television? There's a big recession happening right now. The current business situation is terrible in this country - we have problems with unemployment, high living costs, strikes, pollution, the influence of minorities and majorities, the rich, the poor, drugs, alcohol, capitalism and communism '.

Where upon his father thought, ' well my son's been well educated, he reads the papers, listens to the radio and watches television, so he ought to know '.

So his father cut down on his meat and bun orders, took down all his advertising signs and no longer bothered to stand by the side of the road to promote and sell his hot dogs, . . . . and his hot dog sales fell almost overnight.

'You're right, son' the father said 'we certainly are in the middle of a recession'

Somebody please help me to find out the Moral of the Story.

Regards.
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #460
  • Apr 7, 2013 8:37am Apr 7, 2013 8:37am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Weekly, Daily, Open Position, & Overall Bias For Our Most Frequently Traded Pairs AUD/JPY: Weekly - Up Daily - Up Open Positions - Up Overall - Up CAD/JPY: Weekly - Up Daily - Up Open Positions - Up Overall - Up NZD/JPY: Weekly - Up Daily - Up Open Positions - Up Overall - Up GBP/AUD: Weekly - Down Daily - Up Open Positions - Down Overall - Flat EUR/AUD: Weekly - Down Daily - Up Open Positions - Down Overall - Flat EUR/CAD: Weekly - Down Daily - Up Open Positions - Down Overall - Flat EUR/USD: Weekly - Down Daily - Up Open Positions - Down Overall...
What about USD/JPY, EUR/JPY ?
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
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