Spider's Den | Page 853 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Spider's Den
Exit Attachments

Spider's Den

  • #17,041
  • Apr 5, 2013 6:03am Apr 5, 2013 6:03am
Quoting egkid
Morning all 1.29 mid point and very important for the day I'm still bullish and my target still UP position in play 2843 , 2844 PA now 2925 and will b back to 1.29 again
Locked my profit@2935 will reload long again later
  • #17,042
  • Edited 6:22am Apr 5, 2013 6:12am | Edited 6:22am
EURUSD has jumped heavily at 2745 rising above 2900 where it was pushed by a BULLY candle. If you watch the patterns Bully candle gave a retest of 2900 and we have a possible continuation pattern - RISING 3 METHODS where targets should be 3050, even 3105. I dont know when it will happen as today is NFP, but there is a possibility according to TA.

2 big channels formed a sort of a pitchfork and its rising up, giving a possibility for a deeper retracement to 3105.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2.jpg Size: 177 KB


You can also read analysis on my Forex Blog.
  • #17,043
  • Apr 5, 2013 6:36am Apr 5, 2013 6:36am
Quoting T@rantula
EURUSD has jumped heavily at 2745 rising above 2900 where it was pushed by a BULLY candle. If you watch the patterns Bully candle gave a retest of 2900 and we have a possible continuation pattern - RISING 3 METHODS where targets should be 3050, even 3105. I dont know when it will happen as today is NFP, but there is a possibility according to TA. 2 big channels formed a sort of a pitchfork and its rising up, giving a possibility for a deeper retracement to 3105. {image} You can also read analysis on my [url="http://www.forextrade.rs/forextrade_blog/analiza-eurusd-05042013"]Forex...
3070 as chart say but i say 3080
  • #17,044
  • Apr 5, 2013 7:32am Apr 5, 2013 7:32am
Quoting egkid
3070 as chart say but i say 3080
Here we go...3010 rising 3 methods working like a charm
  • #17,045
  • Apr 5, 2013 7:59am Apr 5, 2013 7:59am
Watching sterling pound 5350-80 region, may place a short around there as it will need a retrace. This 1h candle is called WHITE OPENING MARUBOZU.

Attached Image
  • #17,046
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:21am Apr 5, 2013 8:21am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Today if NFP is bad say at 125,000 or worse we would have Risk Off however since the markets crave continued monetary stimulus or QE then a bad number encourages them to think that the FED will continue to ease and thus the US Dollar becomes weaker.
Nothing else to say but: Great analysis.
  • #17,047
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:55am Apr 5, 2013 8:55am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Good Morning From a Fundamental view I will look at the following issues. The Dow Futures are down 40 now and the US Bond Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds are .24% with the 10;Year at 1.73% The money from all the asset classes move around depending if we have Risk On or Risk Off. The flow goes from Equities to Bonds when we have Risk Off. Today if NFP is bad say at 125,000 or worse we would have Risk Off however since the markets crave continued monetary stimulus or QE then a bad number encourages them to think that the FED will continue to ease...
Quoting hfcgII
Nothing else to say but: Great analysis.
Yes I agree, great fundamental view of USDx strength/weakness. Post like this are always welcome. This explains risk on/off which usually creates a doubt in traders' mind.
  • #17,048
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:31am Apr 5, 2013 11:31am
Quoting T@rantula
Watching sterling pound 5350-80 region, may place a short around there as it will need a retrace. This 1h candle is called WHITE OPENING MARUBOZU. {image}
5350-5325 + 25 pips on this one. Am done for this week.
  • #17,049
  • Apr 8, 2013 6:13am Apr 8, 2013 6:13am
Typical NFP Monday...

2965-3040 range. Still no setups except possible shorts at 3040 and 3060.
  • #17,050
  • Apr 8, 2013 8:16am Apr 8, 2013 8:16am
EURUSD current analysis


We can see as shown on the chart that EURUSD broke the channel upwards and I have shown a fork last week where 3 rising methods drove the price upward. Now notice ( marked in blue) a doji candle just at the channel top, after it broke the channel upward. BUY into retracement is suggested as possible targets are 3140 region and 3250 as a stronger pullback.

2980 2955 and 2930 are support levels and should provide a buying opportunities on retracements.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 265 KB


You can also read the analysis on my Forex Blog.
  • #17,051
  • Edited 2:58am Apr 9, 2013 2:48am | Edited 2:58am
In addition to yesterday's scenario we have Regular bearish divergence and broken trendline on H1 chart. This might give a PB to 2950-2915 region to have a long trade there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 368 KB


You can also read the analysis on my Forex Blog.
  • #17,052
  • Apr 9, 2013 4:34am Apr 9, 2013 4:34am
Quoting T@rantula
In addition to yesterday's scenario we have Regular bearish divergence and broken trendline on H1 chart. This might give a PB to 2950-2915 region to have a long trade there. {image} You can also read the analysis on my Forex Blog.
What do u think of shorting@3070
  • #17,053
  • Apr 9, 2013 4:37am Apr 9, 2013 4:37am
Quoting egkid
What do u think of shorting@3070
That would b my final point for a short, if we go above we may hit 3140 without a good retrace :/ We already know the direction, but the deeper the retrace is the better..
  • #17,054
  • Apr 9, 2013 4:45am Apr 9, 2013 4:45am
Quoting T@rantula
That would b my final point for a short, if we go above we may hit 3140 without a good retrace :/ We already know the direction, but the deeper the retrace is the better..
T Don't u think trading became more harder than before i mean lately need more concentrate and more work on your plan to success than we used to do or that's only me
  • #17,055
  • Apr 9, 2013 4:49am Apr 9, 2013 4:49am
Quoting egkid
T Don't u think trading became more harder than before i mean lately need more concentrate and more work on your plan to success than we used to do or that's only me
You are right, the trading has progressively become harder during these last few years. Swing trades are harder to achieve and take much longer time, even for good intraday setups u need to wait a bit. Correlations are also screwed atm and we have a currency war ongoing.


So we really must concentrate and avoid big leverage.
  • #17,056
  • Apr 9, 2013 5:08am Apr 9, 2013 5:08am
Quoting T@rantula
You are right, the trading has progressively become harder during these last few years. Swing trades are harder to achieve and take much longer time, even for good intraday setups u need to wait a bit. Correlations are also screwed atm and we have a currency war ongoing. So we really must concentrate and avoid big leverage.
Thanks T , I thought it's only me
catch u later i will back to my work now
  • #17,057
  • Apr 9, 2013 5:12am Apr 9, 2013 5:12am
I am having some trouble getting on to your blog..T.. maby its just me.. i will try again tomorrow night
  • #17,058
  • Apr 9, 2013 5:40am Apr 9, 2013 5:40am
Quoting danc
I am having some trouble getting on to your blog..T.. maby its just me.. i will try again tomorrow night
How?? Why's that so?
  • #17,059
  • Apr 9, 2013 5:43am Apr 9, 2013 5:43am
Double top formed at 3050, whole number confluence along with Fib resistance and H4 camarilla.

If u ask me, its really too high for me to enter a long position now. I prefer a pullback then long. Technically it was ok to long near DPP on fake buy today, but now when DT ( double top) has formed, a nice PB would be excellent.

This can be even classified as TT ( triple top), watch the peaks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 254 KB
  • #17,060
  • Apr 9, 2013 5:48am Apr 9, 2013 5:48am
Good Morning

For Information Purposes

Notes From Underground: Kuroda Sings Karaoke … “We Didn’t Start The Fire”

"As my readers as well aware, bond rates and yield curves are very important indicators for understanding all aspects of foreign currencies, commodities and all financial assets … now even more so. And a word of caution to ECB President Mario Draghi: The German elections cannot come soon enough. If Europe holds firm to its present policy, it will be the recipient of major capital inflows and the euro may be driven much higher on a relative basis, unless there is a major political debacle."

Yes, the U.S. and Canadian unemployment data were well below market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. were half of the consensus number and under the 110,000 NFP that we wanted to see so as to test the resolve of the recent equity market rally. Not only were the jobs created numbers weak–manufacturing actually lost jobs–but the important average hourly earnings were flat (0.2% increase expected) so there is no growth in consumer spending potential. As poor as the data release was, by day’s end the SPOO and DOW rallied well off the lows made early in the day. The impact from poor economic fundamentals was not strong enough to overcome the continued release of central bank liquidity into the global economy.

The Canadian employment data was also a disappointment as more than 50,000 full-time jobs were lost when the market had been expecting a slight increase. The poor Canadian data was a total reversal of the previous month’s surprising strong growth numbers and thus we caution that one month a trend doth not make, especially as the later-morning release of the Canadian PMI Ivey report was much stronger than anticipated. With no convincing picture of stronger economic activity it is important to analyze the full impact from the Japanese decision to dynamically increase its monetary stimulus program.

***BACK To the front on the Japanese declaration of war on the European Central Bank. The G-7 has maintained that domestic policy objectives of quantitative easing are a net positive for the world, the only problem is if a central bank ramps up it quantitative easing by PURCHASING BONDS AND ASSETS OF OTHER COUNTRIES. THIS WOULD BE A POLICY THAT WOULD CROSS THE LINES OF ACCEPTABLE. This is also the stance taken by Chairman Bernanke in his speech that I have previously cited, given in London on March 25, 2013. Bernanke said: “Again, the distinction between monetary policies aimed at domestic objectives and trade-diverting exchange rate devaluations or other protectionist measures is critical.” It seems that the new Japanese policy obscures those distinctions. How?

This is the critical point that must be understood for the impact of the BOJ‘s recent decision. THE RAMPING UP OF THE BOJ BOND BUYING, ITS EFFORTS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE MONEY SUPPLY, AND THE DESIRE TO CREATE 2% INFLATION MEANS THAT JAPANESE INVESTORS AND LARGE INSTITUTIONS WOULD BE CRAZY NOT TO UNLOAD THEIR MASSIVE HOLDINGS OF LONG-TERM BONDS TO THE MOST READY BUYER … THE BOJ. By unloading bonds to the BOJ the Japanese investor will be forced to either by the Nikkei or search for higher yielding bonds in foreign destinations. Yes, the BOJ will not directly be purchasing foreign assets in contravention of the G-7 agreement but its policy of FINANCIAL REPRESSION of Japanese citizens will force insurance companies and private citizens to undertake such purchases.

The action in the European debt markets on Thursday and Friday was certainly evidence of the impact of BOJ policy. The yields on 10-year notes all across Europe is indicative of the search for yield. French bond rates have fallen 25 BASIS POINTS since the Japanese announcement, as have the bonds of Belgium, Austria,Italy and Ireland. It will be difficult to comfortably short the debt of any highly rated sovereign now that the Japanese private investor is on the search for higher yielding instruments to replace long-held JGBs. The average Japanese investor could comfortably own domestic bonds at very low yields as long as prices remained steady or were in a deflationary mode. The BOJ just ended the security of that investment strategy. In a globalized world of FREE CAPITAL FLOWS IT IS DIFFICULT TO HALT POLICY OUTCOMES AT THE BORDER.

As my readers as well aware, bond rates and yield curves are very important indicators for understanding all aspects of foreign currencies, commodities and all financial assets … now even more so. And a word of caution to ECB President Mario Draghi: The German elections cannot come soon enough. If Europe holds firm to its present policy, it will be the recipient of major capital inflows and the euro may be driven much higher on a relative basis, unless there is a major political debacle. As Kuroda was heard singing :
Click here to read the full article…
13 traders viewing now