£ Journal

Just another GBPUSD pair journal.
This isn’t a thread to flex my wisdom. Just ordinary thread.
Don't try to mimic my points coz you will blow your account faster than i could say Fibonacci.
2% weekly for 5 years is ~170k, starting with 1k.
All that... from just knowing when not to trade

Most volatile part of the session - London
Most likely will make one move per session, witch can be predicted by certain messages on 1m tf. Timing is essential!!!

Asia session:

1. 90% of the time moves in 30 pips range within first 3 hours of Asia (11.30pm-2.30am GMT)
2. After 2.30am break of bottom/top usualy
3. Exception: strong trend on higher time frame (more pip movement in one direction)

£ makes false moves before intentional move:

1. Spikes up/down in first two hours before choosing the direction
2. Higher chance of sustainable trend in one direction after first two-three hours finished (from 10am GMT)

Market quieting down after London session close (except when there is a strong trend)

Today's morning plan

Small short till support. SL above consolidation zone

SL hit, due to bad timing, tho fundamentals are ruling today, will close for this week, tommorow NFP.
P.S. little spike above consolidation area may due to near London close? (need to see previous preLondon close PA) tho weekly central PP may stand for resistance.

Currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves. (2012 Q3 data). From previous year GBP made positive change from 3.8% to 4.1%. Not a big change, but still may be important.

Good day for studying
1. Foreign exchange market participants.
2. Foreign exchange market transaction types.
3. Direct and indirect Foreign exchange quotes. American and European expressions.
4. Currency buying and selling quotation.
5. Forward foreign exchange quotations expression (expressed in percentage and points).
6. Interest rate parity.

Small short till London Open, signal - few spikes below Tokyo consolidation area, SL above that area. Possible reversal after London open, due to negative NFP expectations.

Position closed.
(Comentary from Alpari experties from Bloomberg TV - NFP negative numbers may be positive for US)???

London open 1 min from now. Stepping into stop hunting zone.

Looks like a very good journal. Hope you are using price action strategies to trade fx.

Hi Brendad, thanks for quote. Credits should go to Forex professionals who showed me how to trade GU. Will try to translate it into my own words and put it on board ) Tho nothing is 100% guaranteed, especially in FX, but it gives me some guidelines. I think technical s, fundamentals and market condition should be included into analysis, just to see whole picture, but yeh I see it like a price action strategy

Flat at the moment, will see where NFP will push the price. Cheers!

news for this week with high impact.

Positive forecast for £ in the beginning of this week due to manufacturing m/m rise, USD unemployment claims could bring it down but core retail sales, PPI, retail sales and prelim Uom Consumer Sentiment is more positive for £ rise?

Made a short short, banked 11 pips. As we see it's Monday, so probably there will bee no big moves, especially that we had NFP on Friday, if we will go out of this range will look for possible entry. Tho I suspect it will be tomorrow.
P.S. uploaded account into journal, will be easier to follow all trading statistics.

Two spikes below consolidation area, will it hold? Should wait for London open.

Stop hunting lasts 2-3 hours, if there is no strong trend, should wait for box break and consolidation above/below it. box should be modified in between that time.

Stop hunted, tho, should be strict to strategy, wait until good setup...

Friday must be cautious, possible profit taking or continuation of the upside, tho serious resistance is at ~1.542x area where we have Fib 38.2% level of last downside from the beginning of the year. Also huge sup/res levels from history chart on daily.

some information to gather... tho could this be important to spot fx still under question...

volumes
day to day

week to day

and month to day

US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield /
UK Govt Bonds 10 Year Note Generic Bid Yield

and GU comparison, doesn't look relative tho


The spread differential (difference in yields) between the yield on the ten-year gilt and that on the ten-year US Treasury note usually impacts the exchange rate. The spread differential between gilts and German bonds is also important, as it impacts the EUR/GBP exchange rate, which could affect GBP/USD

___
UK trade balance