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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,101
  • Apr 4, 2013 3:19pm Apr 4, 2013 3:19pm
Quoting TantumVerum
A) 1) I mentioned previously how we visually take information in as humans. We have been pre-wired or have learned to react to various stimuli subconsciously (some things are different across cultures, but not all). As a crude example I do not use the color red in my candles, why? Because red means danger or has a negative aspect associated with it. I always wondered why It was easier for me to trade when the market was moving up on a chart rather than down (perception). I believe there have been studies associated with it. Sometimes when we are...
If I ever feel like taking a trade from my visual take on a chart I ALWAYS invert it to look at it upside down and test if I feel the same way. We definately have visual bias's I beleive. Probably why I often pick the wrong girl too! (I'm not suggesting we try and turn them upside down to choose BTW)
  • #2,102
  • Apr 4, 2013 3:29pm Apr 4, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I think Icoff might have been confused with where to put this line. The week close is 17:00 NY time on Friday. This is different from the week open which is the Monday daily open.
You are correct. I was confused on this. I have updated the indicator to reflect the correct weekly close. I have also fixed the logic for calculating the daily high/low and made the colors configurable for text and entry lines.
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File Type: zip SenecaPilot-Indicator-1.1.zip   40 KB | 628 downloads
  • #2,103
  • Apr 4, 2013 3:33pm Apr 4, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting Hyperion
If I ever feel like taking a trade from my visual take on a chart I ALWAYS invert it to look at it upside down and test if I feel the same way. We definately have visual bias's I beleive. Probably why I often pick the wrong girl too! (I'm not suggesting we try and turn them upside down to choose BTW)
Hmmm. What are the cap flow implications of turning all the women on the earth upside down.
  • #2,104
  • Apr 4, 2013 3:33pm Apr 4, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting lcoff
You are correct. I was confused on this. I have updated the indicator to reflect the correct weekly close. I have also fixed the logic for calculating the daily high/low and made the colors configurable for text and entry lines. {file}
Excellent, how did the EA handle today's trade on EU?
  • #2,105
  • Apr 4, 2013 3:36pm Apr 4, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Hmmm. What are the cap flow implications of turning all the women on the earth upside down.
Wait, if we turn them all upside down would that somehow invert their thought processes and make them agree with us more?
  • #2,106
  • Apr 4, 2013 3:57pm Apr 4, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Excellent, how did the EA handle today's trade on EU?
It bombed today. Lost about 3.5%

Bought the daily low at 8:00 GMT for a win.
Bought the daily low again at 12:37 GMT for a loss.
Sold the previous weeks low at 12:45 GMT for a loss. -- Error in logic on this. It should have bought.
Sold the previous weeks low again at 12:55 GMT for another loss. -- Error again.
Sold retest of previous day low at 13:12 GMT for a loss.
Sold previous day high at 14:00GMT for a loss.

Would have been a small loss for the day had it bought the previous week's low rather sell it.

I really need to go over the rules that you listed in post 1810. Gotta go back to work tomorrow morning so will not have much time to work on it til next week.
  • #2,107
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:09pm Apr 4, 2013 4:09pm
Thanks very much for your answers guys, sorry yes I missed your post sp.

Steve, great points about targets and market participants ..... I know that I can't hold very long, targets are next on the list, just needed to get the entry thing sorted in my head first.

  • #2,108
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:10pm Apr 4, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Wait, if we turn them all upside down would that somehow invert their thought processes and make them agree with us more?
No sorry, they're all upside down here (downunder) but we are still always wrong!
  • #2,109
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:22pm Apr 4, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting FX Alex
Thanks very much for your answers guys, sorry yes I missed your post sp. Steve, great points about targets and market participants ..... I know that I can't hold very long, targets are next on the list, just needed to get the entry thing sorted in my head first.
Oh another thing, your chart there is 5M and this touch method is based on 2x15M candles being clear of the DO before a retest is a valid signal. Also as we can see your afternoon buy off DO would have been a good one. However on 15M chart there are not 2xcandles of separation. Not sure how SP would tackle a potential re-entry here. Are we looking for 2xcandles of separation again or just price returning to level after break.
  • #2,110
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:23pm Apr 4, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting Hyperion
No sorry, they're all upside down here (downunder) but we are still always wrong!
You have the sun and the beers and the beaches but you still got the moody sheilas too? What is wrong with them?!
  • #2,111
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:27pm Apr 4, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting lcoff
It bombed today. Lost about 3.5% Bought the daily low at 8:00 GMT for a win. Bought the daily low again at 12:37 GMT for a loss. Sold the previous weeks low at 12:45 GMT for a loss. -- Error in logic on this. It should have bought. Sold the previous weeks low again at 12:55 GMT for another loss. -- Error again. Sold retest of previous day low at 13:12 GMT for a loss. Sold previous day high at 14:00GMT for a loss. Would have been a small loss for the day had it bought the previous week's low rather sell it. I really need to go over the rules...
This was my fear. Of course we do not want to buy the previous day low for a second time after trading it long for a win previously. The selling weekly low I am sure is a simple fix for you. I am just not sure if this can be coded. We know almost instinctively what levels to take a shot at after years of screen time. I simply do not know if there is any way to code that instinct. I have high hopes for you to get it right.
  • #2,112
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:39pm Apr 4, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting stevexyg
Interesting reply Tantum. Probablly no-one really sees the market the same way, we all have our areas of interest and give different aspects more weight than others. I didn't look at horizontal levels untill I began reading this thread. It sounds ridiculous but I was a day-trend trader and so everything for me happened inside a channel. In the time I spent inside channels, inside channels (MTF set up) I learned that price movements can be predicted within and up-against channel lines. Not always, not 30% of the time, but sometimes price reacts...
Not that it matters at all whatsoever, but my opinion regarding any sort of subjective patterns (channels, flags, visual formations such as head & shoulders, etc.) is that order flow creates the pattern, not the other way around. I can't state this factually of course, but I would guess that the type of order flow that moves the market is very rarely if ever based on patterns but instead creates the pattern, a chicken vs. egg type scenario. Maybe it's semantics, but I do think it's a key difference. One of the reasons I like this thread is that the horizontal S/R discussed here is based on objective price vs. value, not subjective visual patterns. The reactions to these objective price levels may or may not create what looks like a pattern to us, but it's really irrelevant either way. You can find patterns everywhere in chart data, even if the chart itself is nothing more than random data put into candlestick format.

Not sure if that makes sense, but in practical terms for me I do still use chart patterns, but only to track the momentum of an active trade off a confirmed level, never for trade entry. This way subjective patterns actually do show something-- at what rate of speed are new highs/lows made and is this rate holding steady, increasing, or decreasing. I would guess that more often than not, successful trades based off of subjective patterns occurred at important levels and simply coincided with a trendline or pattern that may or may not have actually had any impact to order flow that moved the market.
  • #2,113
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:43pm Apr 4, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Of course we do not want to buy the previous day low for a second time after trading it long for a win previously.
Easy enough to fix, but at what point would you look to sell the daily low if a long failed? Or would you?
  • #2,114
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:54pm Apr 4, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting lcoff
Easy enough to fix, but at what point would you look to sell the daily low if a long failed? Or would you?
I will sell a retest of the level from below if stopped out on a long.
  • #2,115
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:57pm Apr 4, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting lcoff
It bombed today. Lost about 3.5% Bought the daily low at 8:00 GMT for a win. Bought the daily low again at 12:37 GMT for a loss. Sold the previous weeks low at 12:45 GMT for a loss. -- Error in logic on this. It should have bought. Sold the previous weeks low again at 12:55 GMT for another loss. -- Error again. Sold retest of previous day low at 13:12 GMT for a loss. Sold previous day high at 14:00GMT for a loss. Would have been a small loss for the day had it bought the previous week's low rather sell it. I really need to go over the rules...
I have seen people who build EA's for a living try and code basic s/r robots before... From experience I can tell you straight off the bat this will not work without some context, unless you max out on the R/R and can accept a very low win rate.. there's stacks of info on the subject around if you have a little dig
tradewith60
  • #2,116
  • Apr 4, 2013 5:01pm Apr 4, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting stevexyg
Oh another thing, your chart there is 5M and this touch method is based on 2x15M candles being clear of the DO before a retest is a valid signal. Also as we can see your afternoon buy off DO would have been a good one. However on 15M chart there are not 2xcandles of separation. Not sure how SP would tackle a potential re-entry here. Are we looking for 2xcandles of separation again or just price returning to level after break.
Yeah the 5min chart was just for clarity.

This is where I think the work begins, gathering the stats, finding out what is the probability of those kinds of retests playing good is, and does the probability go up if we have 2 x15m candles holding price up or perhaps some other price observation.
  • #2,117
  • Apr 4, 2013 6:41pm Apr 4, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting Good Lookin
Juice some kale cucumber and cilantro. Put an apple in it if you want. If you haven't already maybe you should get some greens in your life. You'll save lots of energy in digestion. I find that for me if i drink one of these (or any juiced greens) in the morning i am very relaxed and i can concentrate/think much better than if i had a coffee or egg and cheese on a roll or any of the traditional american breakfasts. May help
Homemade vegetable juice may well be the best thing we can put inside our bodies. One of many benefits is that it skews our body Ph over to the alkaline side of the spectrum, 7 to 14. It is uncommon to get cancer with an alkaline Ph.
  • #2,118
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:50am Apr 5, 2013 12:50am
Quoting stevexyg
Hi 1st post. No the range is not correct. You should read post 80 on the thread which explains this one. You want to bracket 3hrs leading up to LO, so your range is way too wide. EDIT: OPPS, actually you are spot on. SORRY. I was confused over times. Yes range is correct.
Thank you for your answer!

How about, do you have some comments on these? NFP-news is coming soon

2. When there are lot's of "red ffcalendar" news as today, do you usually get out of trade, when scheduled news is about to come? Is there any difference getting out if trade is in profit or when it is in minus?

3. I understand that when NFP news is scheduled, then it is best to trade just the news. What is best pair to trade NFP, UDSJPY?
  • #2,119
  • Apr 5, 2013 7:56am Apr 5, 2013 7:56am
IB forming. If it breaks down it is the stronger signal. If it breaks up weaker signal and likely to fail at the top of the 08:30 bar.
  • #2,120
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:02am Apr 5, 2013 8:02am
Quoting Seneca pilot
IB forming. If it breaks down it is the stronger signal. If it breaks up weaker signal and likely to fail at the top of the 08:30 bar.
You trade bar formation?
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