Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

Stress and tired are my two main problems. Working with contractors at the new house, dealing with patio and deck. Dealing with the new neighbor about his fence that is on my land. Other things going on outside trading. Then there is the whole glass house thing. I miss my test account. I would like to be able to try out some things that are bouncing around in my head. I used that account to take iffy trades and play around while my trades were open and now I can't do that. There are lots of things and right now I am not having a lot of ability to compartmentalize. It's basically just a stew of factors and I can't settle down. I will get past it.

Interesting reply Tantum. Probablly no-one really sees the market the same way, we all have our areas of interest and give different aspects more weight than others. I didn't look at horizontal levels untill I began reading this thread. It sounds ridiculous but I was a day-trend trader and so everything for me happened inside a channel. In the time I spent inside channels, inside channels (MTF set up) I learned that price movements can be predicted within and up-against channel lines. Not always, not 30% of the time, but sometimes price reacts to channel lines as it weaves it's way up or down a price channel. You can't disagree that price can be seen as a specific value at a specific time and that a chart is just a representation of that. But at the same time as we know traders large and small trade with charts not just on price. That's why chart pattern studies exist and appear to work some of the time. The market as a whole responds to this visualisation of price which is what we call a chart. That's is probably not relevant to the way you trade because there is more than one way trade a market but I would encourage anyone to look into channels and trend lines to see if they could help then see price behaving in another way. Not everyone's cup of tea I suppose! Good trading!

The fade refers to selling when price retraces to the point at your ?. Of course it didn't make it there this morning and we bought the previous day low instead. The rest of your points are spot on correct.

Hi!

I want to thank Seneca and others for this excellent thread!

I have been reading few days this thread and got so much ideas. Have to read it through few more times and start adopting the concepts to my trading. I have traded Tom De Mark level 2 trendlines, with fairly good success, but feel that i get only small part of the move. This style you teach is great and I have started studying.

I have few questions, if somebody could answer:

1. Just to make sure. Is this Opening Range right? There are time differencies and everything, so attached is a picture

2. When there are lot's of "red ffcalendar" news as today, do you usually get out of trade, when scheduled news is about to come? Is there any difference getting out if trade is in profit or when it is in minus?

3. I understand that when NFP news is scheduled, then it is best to trade just the news. What is best pair to trade NFP, UDSJPY?

4. I use Ninjatrader and have little trouble setting up ATR %, if there is someone who could help, I would be very grateful.

BR,

tdforex

Juice some kale cucumber and cilantro. Put an apple in it if you want. If you haven't already maybe you should get some greens in your life. You'll save lots of energy in digestion. I find that for me if i drink one of these (or any juiced greens) in the morning i am very relaxed and i can concentrate/think much better than if i had a coffee or egg and cheese on a roll or any of the traditional american breakfasts. May help

Say the word and I will have this muppet and his fence taken out. If there's one thing I can't stand it's neighbours inching their fences onto someone elses property and expecting them not to notice. Are they insane??

1000% agree with that. It's all about the raw enzymes.

(Can't post in CP's thread... You can likely guess why)

But here ya go:

Haven't seen you in a while. What's shakin bacon?

Had a ripping week Pilot man (the best of the year), so I'm feeling pretty generous. Gotta get myself humbled before I get blind sided so any piss taking is well welcomed =)

Hope you're well. How's the S/R trading going today? Knives through butter or you got it under control?

Neither I don't think. There is no return to the open at 1 nor at '?'. If the horizontal line is DO there is no valid sell entry if you are touch trading as SP suggests - price does not return to touch the open price.

Fade the return to the open = 'trade against' the return to the open - I think.

The levels held up well. I didn't execute for shit though. Buying the last week low and hanging on was a massive winner today. I screwed it up of course. Only got a smallish winner out of it.

Right now I am rebelling against myself and taking back my test account. I am building up a structure around a level that I want to try out. I may lose my ass.

Hi 1st post. No the range is not correct. You should read post 80 on the thread which explains this one. You want to bracket 3hrs leading up to LO, so your range is way too wide.

EDIT: OPPS, actually you are spot on. SORRY. I was confused over times. Yes range is correct.

I did notice this one earlier... Traded it much lower though myself.

A) If I speak in absolutes I don't necessarily mean to.
B) I am not talking voodoo, these things are basic, but my explanation may make it confusing. You need to be aware of what controls some of your decisions and perceptions.
C) If it sounds like I am repeating something from FF, it is because I am. These ideas have been stated numerous times through the forum. It's funny how some "experts" here at FF disregard them, but they are what they are.
D) I have lots more to learn... I don't know what I don't know...

Anyways, this is what I see...

1) I mentioned previously how we visually take information in as humans. We have been pre-wired or have learned to react to various stimuli subconsciously (some things are different across cultures, but not all). As a crude example I do not use the color red in my candles, why? Because red means danger or has a negative aspect associated with it.

I always wondered why It was easier for me to trade when the market was moving up on a chart rather than down (perception). I believe there have been studies associated with it. Sometimes when we are looking at charts, because of the fact it reads to the right based on time we are fooled into some bias regarding the market. Bias by the means how fast the market is moving vs moving slowly. There have been some cool things by some people regarding time, but like I said previously it is beyond my comprehension and I am not sure it is needed anymore than order placement.

Price simply moves up and down, not related to right or left. Of course you could turn a chart 90 degrees and say that it moves right to left, but then it doesn't move up and down. If you tried this once with your chart, I would bet nearly everyone, if not everyone would have no idea what they were doing, but why couldn't it be this way? No voodoo here, was just an example.

It is hard to verbalize how the chart plays tricks on you because there are numerous ways it can without you or I realizing how we are sabotaging ourselves. It is why rules and plans are needed, but not being aware of some of your inabilities can create all these different bias's. I think it is why trading can be said is simple in a complex structure, but yet so difficult. It's just like anything else you look back and wonder why you couldn't see through the BS before. Then you can go down the road of chasing the goose that lays the golden egg and it's no wonder why we get all f'd up. I know I did.

There are various ways to trade and you need to be able to ground your perceptions of price within a time based chart if you are trading off of one. I also believe that you can use indicators to trade successfully, but only if you understand the market structure. If you understand the market structure I don't know that you have to have indicators, trendlines, etc... I would like to say this as an absolute, but I know better. I do not concern my self with the larger trend, what price did yesterday, and certainly not what the analysts think. The only thing I concern myself in regards to history is price at certain points.

The following keeps my perceptions and bias grounded...

2) Yes I do use tools, I guess. I trade according to price and market structure. Price at certain points as discussed here, but I have to use a chart with candlesticks (tools), could be bar charts. There are numerous levels and some hold more weight on price movement than others, again addressed in this thread. No need for me to discuss these levels, it's all here, but I do use more or possibly use them a little different. Difference is I see levels as yellow lights if you will. Sometimes I use them as red lights, just stop my trade if I want to be done and not actively manage (set and forget).

I enter and exit trades on 1 minute charts. Doesn't mean I don't use 5m, 15m, or 1h for analysis, albeit very brief, but I use them. I don't use them for anything else but visually seeing where the levels are in a larger view. I could zoom way out on a 1m and see the same thing. My trade management and risk tolerance is directly related to where these levels are lining up now. I had referred to stacks earlier, which I really mean stacks of stacks. If there is a DO, LO, and say 1 other level within close proximity this will cause me to place additional weight on the level and my risk tolerance, SL, and entry is based on them. My SL changes though as price develops. My initial SL is static in case someone drops a large order in. In reality my SL is dynamic and moves as I see price develop on the 1 m chart. My TP is the same. I always set my TP to the next major area/level (static) in case my computer blows up or I have to leave. The only difference is it can be 1 single level, but it has to be a perceived important one. Perceived because we only work in probabilities, and a daily high is probably going to be important as an example. Once in trade management and I am at my computer, the TP is actually dynamic. Both the TP & SL are executed on the same set of rules based on what price is doing. I will look for the next minor level to be hit and then move my SL to BE at the very least, again as a safety net. No trades entered in "no man's land" and most of the time no exits either. I do not use ATR like SP, not because it's not a good tool, but I just don't require it for the way I trade. It makes complete sense the way it is used here. Again, as an example, for easy numbers let's just say E/U had an ATR of 100 as a daily range at the current moment. If I am in a trade and E/U has ranged 130 it (ATR) does not affect my management. Even if I am beyond all my current tradeable levels for the day (extreme or large trending day, like today) while already in a profitable trade I am simply at this point following what price is doing on my 1m chart. I "own" price at this point and I am happy to get out when the market lets me know. These circumstances are less the norm. The norm is trading within the levels.

Why do I trade this way? It's who I am. It has some strict rules in it, but also discretion as well. You can't backtest it (but you can backtest probabilities at levels), you can't automate it, but I can get a good idea of what would/could have happened by looking back. I get into trouble the same way as any other trader would. My entries and exits are stupid simple and the management is pretty basic too, it's the me part that usually f's it all up.

I hope that helps partially answer your question. If you were looking west and I went east let me know.

Thanks Steve, right, price below short the retest, price above long the retest.. phew

anyway ok so no trade.

How's the rest looking if you get a minute?

SP, you sound knackered mate, take a break. Houses and the like super stress.

I responded but there are a lot of posts. All your points were spot on correct.

Yep as SP said you have the right ideas.

The one thing I would say is you aren't mentioning when you would have got out of trade 2. You should be targetting a R:R ratio of 2 or 3:1. Looks like 35pips there. Would you have taken profit there or would price have come back and taken out your stop before hitting TP??

Then when trade 3 occurs you should be out either with a profit or loss from trade 2 you should not have 2 trades open from there. Again what are you targetting?

With 4 your main thought should be time of day. Do you want to be opening positions that late in the day? You are getting close to or after London hours so the liquidity in the market is drying up. Everyone has gone home. Finally the more times price returns to the same level the less reliable it will be to trade. Each time price retouches a level from above or below orders are being filled so would a retest for a long be a good idea? It might be but not necessarily a high probability trade IMHO.

I want to speak to the exit for the first trade. The level to exit was the close from last week. I think Icoff might have been confused with where to put this line. The week close is 17:00 NY time on Friday. This is different from the week open which is the Monday daily open.