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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,541
  • Apr 4, 2013 6:28am Apr 4, 2013 6:28am
For many this happened.
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  • #39,542
  • Apr 4, 2013 6:31am Apr 4, 2013 6:31am
became this.
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  • #39,543
  • Edited 7:38am Apr 4, 2013 7:02am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting frz
ok, i have another misconceived. i have very little knowledge on the economy land. it means i have much home work to do, also learn to recognise the news that have significant impact to market. Regards
for you i have a suggestion.
go down to the smallest trading size you can live with.

then you build.
like ant work.

everytime you meet 300% of risk capital, then re-adjust your minimum up 30% of base.
do this 7 years learning every trick markets knows, then when you learned the lessons, you conclude.
i bet by then you will understand and continue as when you started.

I don't want hear any excuses.
make sure your siralling is at least 7 layers deep and 7 of 7 and 7 of 7. (this just guide) i know you will know stuff more powerful than this.

This if you really want to learn the real deal. But is a long and boring exercise.
but no markets can kill you. i am quiet certain in my mind. even if you bad trader is difficult to kill you. except maybe frozen concentrated orange juice or pork bellies markets. maybe even not.

will initially only provide you ice cream for lunch and dinner.
but when you become aged like me, you may just own everything around you.

regards

there is a way shift your var formulation using historical volatility reads, moving between macro risk capital and investable risk capital , but i will let you fig that out yourself. you will learn what to incorporate and how much from markets.
i not want every funds manager in the world trying assasinate me.

PS don't try build a robot do this, robots cannot learn lessons, only humans can.
i am telling you from experience,( i also know how build robots who know how use fuzzy logics.)
is a futile effort. i spent lots bank money in mios on that learn of it futility.
is ok the mios only small money from group earnings. i was pioneers during the digital discovery era. Though its very powerful, was wrong.
  • #39,544
  • Apr 4, 2013 7:44am Apr 4, 2013 7:44am
others who had succesfully learned nimbleness from the thread should so as you doing.
you will be more powerful.
beccause you scarifice safety for performance.
But never lose your mindset.
If possible have someone audit you mind from time to time.


regards
  • #39,545
  • Edited 8:44am Apr 4, 2013 8:29am | Edited 8:44am
Blue denube anyone?

Inserted Video
  • #39,546
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:22am Apr 4, 2013 9:22am
Today I have trade GJ pair. I have enter a area a overbought area using bolinger band with setup:
Period =12,
Deviation =2

At 12pm (GMT +8:00), I enter 0.1 lot (equivalent to 1000 unit) of SELL (at overbought area).
Quickly this become dead water.
since then, I try doing:
0.1 lot rescue
0.1 lot rescue
but fail!
so I close 1x 0.1lot. But later, I reenter with 1x0.1lot.

But the market seem never stop, it keep on rally.
then, I try reenter:
0.3lot rescue at 142.168.
0.1lot rescue at 142.248.
All Fail. All terminated at 143.830 since I reach 2% limit.

Make up LOSS roughly $120 which is 2% of my account.

I have identified below problems. but what other area I need to improve?

1. Not follow 3x daily profit rule (3x daily profit is $12)
2. I do not listen to music. but I got doing a email readings at the same time.
3. Before this LOSS, I have nearly 80% winning rate.
4. trading on news release - Japan policy ongoing
5. anythings else?

Can anyone tell me what other wrong move/mindset that I have? I really need improve my skills.
All critics are welcomed

Below are my blotter.
2013.04.04 00:40 sell 0.10 gbpjpy. 141.165 CLOSE 06:24 143.815 PL = -27.75
2013.04.04 00:42 sell 0.10 gbpjpy. 141.308 CLOSE 06:24 143.817 PL = -26.28
2013.04.04 00:43 sell 0.10 gbpjpy. 141.533 CLOSE 00:54 141.932 PL = -4.25

2013.04.04 01:00 sell 0.10 gbpjpy. 142.248 CLOSE 2013.04.04 06:24 143.818 PL = -16.45
2013.04.04 01:08 sell 0.30 gbpjpy. 142.168 CLOSE 2013.04.04 06:24 143.826 PL = -52.09
2013.04.04 03:46 sell 1.00 gbpjpy. 143.919 CLOSE 2013.04.04 04:22 143.830 PL = 9.32

2013.04.04 05:06 sell 1.00 gbpjpy. 143.651 CLOSE 2013.04.04 05:17 143.748 PL = -10.17

2013.04.04 07:49 sell 0.10 gbpjpy. 144.176 CLOSE 2013.04.04 09:26 144.720 PL = -5.68
2013.04.04 08:10 sell 0.10 gbpjpy. 144.402 CLOSE 2013.04.04 09:26 144.722 PL = -3.34
  • #39,547
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:32am Apr 4, 2013 9:32am
Quoting fti
others who had succesfully learned nimbleness from the thread should so as you doing. you will be more powerful. beccause you scarifice safety for performance. But never lose your mindset. If possible have someone audit you mind from time to time. regards


Hi fti


I hope you are feeling better within yourself now as you sound as if you are.


I am sorry for not understand this but who and/or how do you get someone to audit your mindset?


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,548
  • Edited 10:18am Apr 4, 2013 9:47am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting phil13
Hi fti I hope you are feeling better within yourself now as you sound as if you are. I am sorry for not understand this but who and/or how do you get someone to audit your mindset? Regards Phil.
Need be someone who knows you well. Family or good friends who themselves are traders.
When you performing well, you have a certain mindset that eminates into your behaviour.
when there is change your behaviour will also change very evidently.

When one interrects, one can detect subtle changes.
When one talking cock sure of something then one knows the bias moved in overshadow the mind.

Can do this when book bottom line begins to deviate from norm.
trying crawl back to basic when detected can create environment shield one from making big mistakes in mindset.

in markets i still watching for the sell off. but something or someone is there blocking. Even when the BOJ thingy came on markets. The euros no respond.
need watch for topping actions but non detected so far
but lots upward volitility strength.
still watching and talking with peeps set up trade lines again.
But peeps very cautious. Maybe they may like fig out if i still sane.



regards

now watching how theses outside day reversals in flags trying change landscape.
is very A B normal. only one still sane is aud
lets see if fear of euro rate cuts may want take the manipulation on.
usdyen and tier 2 markets still sane.
euro and cable under intense manipulation.
Love to see who the rogues. can send them working in farms again.
but for now cannot fight them yet.
they firewalling the market.

last i heard buyers of cable were black gold money.
but i not on market pulse so i not seeing clear picture yet.

this round of insanity cost me lost some sources of analysis.
normally peeps not wants anything do with the insane.

in cable outside reversal on outside reversal in a flag.
They trying kill all weak traders.
anyone over exposed is on dinning table.
  • #39,549
  • Edited 10:30am Apr 4, 2013 10:00am | Edited 10:30am
Quoting fti
for you i have a suggestion. go down to the smallest trading size you can live with. then you build. like ant work. everytime you meet 300% of risk capital, then re-adjust your minimum up 30% of base. do this 7 years learning every trick markets knows, then when you learned the lessons, you conclude. i bet by then you will understand and continue as when you started. I don't want hear any excuses. make sure your siralling is at least 7 layers deep and 7 of 7 and 7 of 7. (this just guide) i know you will know stuff more powerful than this....
thanks Fti.
much obliged.

i knew this is like another field of work.
need sacrifice to learn lesson step by step.
so, i will consider your kindness of advice utterly.

not easy though,
a bit like, i need couple days to understand what this picture's means. haha.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: morerange.jpg Size: 232 KB


about MM,
i have tried to figure out what spiral within spiral means, but got no clue.
is it layering the reserves equity to prepare rescue and attack mode?
once, i found out the first position is very unsignificant to the next positions.
since i just using single position almost all the time.
but, i know my MO will evolving along the time..
so i will put your lesson about layering capital into practise on my demo.

my plan on demo is to figure out the volatility and recognise waves.
as you have mentioned, this is akin like drive on motorcycle.
a lot practise to feel the tempo also recognise the terrain.

the news, i think it just corroborative.
what lays on the chart is enough to take action.
since i haven't any reliable source news just in time.
my task is to figure out the news and government's policy impact on the long term.

about MO,
i'm superior on the congestion (sideways within range)
but got killed on the trend almost all the time.
surely, i will discover it. maybe with some patience ingredient.



Regards

p.s
i'm little surprised when i read reminiscence of stock operator,
knowing that his MO is akin as yours. Great traders.
steady as she goes
  • #39,550
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:10am Apr 4, 2013 10:10am
Quoting fti
Need be someone who knows you well. Family or good friends who themselves are traders. When you performing well, you have a certain mindset that eminates into your behaviour. when there is change your behaviour will also change very evidently. When one interrects, one can detect subtle changes. When one talking cock sure of something then one knows the bias moved in overshadow the mind. Can do this when book bottom line begins to deviate from norm. trying crawl back to basic when detected can create environment shield one from making big mistakes...

Hi fti


thank you for your explanation, I understand what you are saying now as I have seen/noticed and felt some of this within my self and my actions/re-actions with others, my problem is I do not know any one else who trades and/or understands this business at all, I guess I will have to try extra hard not to stray and keep myself in check, again thank you for your time and valuable response.

i am all square as of today and not going to get another trade started until tuesday maybe later, i have something not related to trading disrupting my mindset, so have traded very light this week with the view to square out totally, i am hoping that monday will calm things down for me and i can continue my trading.

Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,551
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:24am Apr 4, 2013 10:24am
Quoting yorae77
Today I have trade GJ pair. I have enter a area a overbought area using bolinger band with setup: Period =12, Deviation =2 At 12pm (GMT +8:00), I enter 0.1 lot (equivalent to 1000 unit) of SELL (at overbought area). Quickly this become dead water. since then, I try doing: 0.1 lot rescue 0.1 lot rescue but fail! so I close 1x 0.1lot. But later, I reenter with 1x0.1lot. But the market seem never stop, it keep on rally. then, I try reenter: 0.3lot rescue at 142.168. 0.1lot rescue at 142.248. All Fail. All terminated at 143.830 since I reach 2%...

Hi Yorae.

today was very powerfull move for all jpy pairs, due japan CB policy.
i guess your resue was against the trend.
any rescue wont work if against the trend, unless you flipping into trend moves.
and for the bleeding position is your call to cut it out or keep it.

hope it helps, since i'm still learning.

Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,552
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:36am Apr 4, 2013 10:36am
for those not aware.
the BOJ had a change of guards and the new team coming on very determined.

The iron lady also will be having change of guards soon.

Will be nice see usdyen above par.and if the wuro can stay above 1.3 would be a boon for the jap economy recover.
but be nimble. Lots changes in the cards.


regards

looking at euro crosses behavious, seems the currency moving things is the euro.
Now i trying find out who's euros they belong to.
for now no one seems able put their fingers on it yet.
someone's sure selling lots yellow metal.
need follow the money.
  • #39,553
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:56am Apr 4, 2013 10:56am
Quoting frz
thanks Fti. about MM, i have tried to figure out what spiral within spiral means, but got no clue. is it layering the reserves equity to prepare rescue and attack mode? once, i found out the first position is very unsignificant to the next positions. since i just using single position almost all the time. but, i know my MO will evolving along the time..
is allover the thread.
you still have lots reading and experimentation to do.

Generally is about mm.

stare at picture and see if you can catch some fresh air.

oh is not for hypnosis, there is a picture of somthing in it.
Not airplane either.
Attached Image
  • #39,554
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:00am Apr 4, 2013 11:00am
for those riding the euro and cable strength, be very aware of the euro crosses tear.
i waiting try see their hand.
once caught can chop it off.

for now just watch them manipulate.
everyone 's watching also see how the NFP tom.

if they try bailout before nfp, don't be there give them way out.
let them risk.
  • #39,555
  • Edited 11:44am Apr 4, 2013 11:13am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting yorae77
Today I have trade GJ pair. I have enter a area a overbought area using bolinger band with setup: Period =12, Deviation =2 At 12pm (GMT +8:00), I enter 0.1 lot (equivalent to 1000 unit) of SELL (at overbought area). Quickly this become dead water. since then, I try doing: 0.1 lot rescue 0.1 lot rescue but fail! so I close 1x 0.1lot. But later, I reenter with 1x0.1lot. But the market seem never stop, it keep on rally. then, I try reenter: 0.3lot rescue at 142.168. 0.1lot rescue at 142.248. All Fail. All terminated at 143.830 since I reach 2%...
Bands?
you CB?
whats over sold can remain over sold vice versa.
what bands tells you?

12 periods lag in this volitility, your positions can become very dead in water very quickly. depends on how fine your period.
If you on tenure, then may God have mercy on the persitions.
rescue?

rescue what?
only if you CB. and even that no one wants piss into the wind.
will flow right back at you.

regards

when your b bands meets , thats chance for you bailout if you positions out of line with flow.
I not like the Mo , but if you insist.
Thats your que to jump ship. Sometimes it will kill all before bands meets. or by not moving for long long period
for you will be 12 periods market inactivity.

Just to help you out, try read some front pages of this thread. about i telling you about using indicators and parameters lags.
  • #39,556
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:25am Apr 4, 2013 11:25am
Quoting fti
is allover the thread. you still have lots reading and experimentation to do. Generally is about mm. stare at picture and see if you can catch some fresh air. oh is not for hypnosis, there is a picture of somthing in it. Not airplane either. {image}
ok, i got the clue.

before came to this thread.
i have plenty exercise with fibonacci thingy and some harmonic patterns.
well, it's not futile at all.
at least i could apply some of it on the MM.

i must admit, i'm over gearing on the MM.
my principal risk is 50% of equity.
and 10% per single trade.

since i have not mature yet on MO,
i got killed after making doubled my account within a week.
so, i had think about my weakness on the MM too.

wow, i guess you was guestimate my weakness on the MM.
since traders will not get killed if he is not over gearing.

hm, 7 layers sure it's absolutely ant works.
but, i will put into practise anyway.


Regards

P.S: surely i will get married after my trading establish in the long long long long...
ah, i just jesting.
i knew if i do not repairing my MM, then i would got killed every time i come to the market
steady as she goes
  • #39,557
  • Edited 12:03pm Apr 4, 2013 11:49am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting frz
ok, i got the clue. before came to this thread. i have plenty exercise with fibonacci thingy and some harmonic patterns. well, it's not futile at all. at least i could apply some of it on the MM. i must admit, i'm over gearing on the MM. my principal risk is 50% of equity. and 10% per single trade. since i have not mature yet on MO, i got killed after making doubled my account within a week. so, i had think about my weakness on the MM too. wow, i guess you was guestimate my weakness on the MM. since traders will not get killed...
ambition must be managed hor.

Only reason i gave you 7 layers is because even God rested after 7 days of our shit.
by 7 , i am sure the pressure would be high enough, if someone opened your lid will be explosion.
so not be rigid , just a guide. help you see the compounding calculus.
you need find that equilibrium between performance and riskwhich you can live with.

you are intelligent chap, I'm sure you will figure it out.

regards

by the way 7 layers is minimum
3 is with training wheel. begining thread i gave 3 because i not wanted any frinds eyes pop out of their sockets.
for starting to learn already 3 can exploded some hearts.

You overtrading your cap.
and if you continue overtrade , you not going become as old as i am and still trading.

Just to help you out.
Please be very sure your job and reasons for trading.
your job description is make pips.
how much depends on how well you capitalised and how skillful you can become.
it not matters if you think you skillful.
1st thing is make pips. That your only task and it starts from doremi.
After you make then you must know how protect what you made.
  • #39,558
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:57am Apr 4, 2013 11:57am
Quoting frz
ok, i got the clue. before came to this thread. i have plenty exercise with fibonacci thingy and some harmonic patterns. well, it's not futile at all. at least i could apply some of it on the MM. i must admit, i'm over gearing on the MM. my principal risk is 50% of equity. and 10% per single trade. since i have not mature yet on MO, i got killed after making doubled my account within a week. so, i had think about my weakness on the MM too. wow, i guess you was guestimate my weakness on the MM. since traders will not get killed...
10% per trade? You got balls. lol
  • #39,559
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:10pm Apr 4, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting fti
ambition must be managed hor. Only reason i gave you 7 layers is because even God rested after 7 days of our shit. by 7 , i am sure the pressure would be high enough, if someone opened your lid will be explosion. so not be rigid , just a guide. help you see the compounding calculus. you need find that equilibrium between performance and riskwhich you can live with. you are intelligent chap, I'm sure you will figure it out. regards by the way 7 layers is minimum 3 is with training wheel. begining thread i gave 3 because i not wanted any frinds...

yap, must manage the ambition if i want to see my equilibrium.

ok, i will put it into practise on my demo.
and show you the result next week.

it's midnite already on my place.
time to sleep.
many thanks for the lesson,
take care fti.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,560
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:11pm Apr 4, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting M-H Trader
10% per trade? You got balls. lol
yap, definitely.


Regards
steady as she goes
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