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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,521
  • Apr 2, 2013 2:37pm Apr 2, 2013 2:37pm
Thanks fti for your precious time to respond.
6 years ago i decided to try forex coz of my two superior(CIO & CFO), they taught me all kinds of TA/FA & ultimately
taught me how to blew up my account haha those were the days!! i was on-off after 3yrs of trading, finding/tweaking ways
how i can be profitable on this market...along the way, i cut all the crap that i have infused in my brain and start fresh...then
discovered the beauty of PA and heiken-ashi, i knew so many trader are extremely reproachful of it coz of it's laggy nature but
not me, it showed me a very clear pattern where i can enter the battle..you called it dance and i called go with the flow! Through patience &
dedication i developed my skills in any situation of the market...so many of you wouldn't believe that most of the time i make more money when
news are coming out coz i can jump in and out very quickly on those condition.

anyway,thanks a bunch for your generosity!
R.
  • #39,522
  • Apr 2, 2013 6:49pm Apr 2, 2013 6:49pm
Just for info.
I not got my trade line in order.
still think how i going get things done.

For those not aware.
There is fundemental shift in political arena.
i expected see market try for bottomless drive
may come may not.
But things seems in position for it happen.
so be aware flow possibilities and time trades mm prudently.


regards

after a lull, seems they have agenda impose ways.
Hearing deposits in cyrpus may lose 60% of value.
Is big thing.
Just be aware. May see funds flight to safety.

i feel is a mistake, politics comes into markets.
but thats their choice.
or maybe is just those in trouble in desperation.
remember icelandbank incident.
greese incident.

Just treating symtoms and not disease is not a clever thing.
haunting pic coming into scope again.
  • #39,523
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:47pm Apr 2, 2013 9:47pm
my unload mission was failed.
though it still on hedging position and didn't lose significant amount.
but i can't bear the gigantic pressure.

so, i'm returning back to demo account for one month or more if necessary.
honing skill also back testing MO and MM.
hoping i could tame my mount of ego and see things more clearly.

thanks for all kindness of advice that have been given to me.
good luck to you all.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,524
  • Edited 4:37am Apr 3, 2013 3:51am | Edited 4:37am
The more I trade, the more I realise that, for me at least, it is understanding why I do what I do that helps me the most, instead of trying to understand why the market does what it does. I cannot control where price will go but I can try to control my reactions to price movements and attempt to make rational decisions rather than ones based on anger, pride and other ego-related feelings.

This is probably really obvious to everyone else on this thread but it only just hit me a few weeks ago.

I had flipped my position and doubled in size at the same time and I was thinking about why I did that. I realised that I had done it for all the wrong reasons but when I looked at where the market was and what had happened already, I came to the conclusion that it was the right thing to do and as it happens it turned out fine for me. However, I think it is important for me to identify the type of situations when I react illogically and to try to retrain my mind, because next time I might not be so lucky.

EDIT: On the rare occasions that I make a post, I almost always wish that I hadn't. I think this is such a personal journey and what I am experiencing is probably of little value to others.
  • #39,525
  • Apr 3, 2013 3:52am Apr 3, 2013 3:52am
Quoting frz
my unload mission was failed. though it still on hedging position and didn't lose significant amount. but i can't bear the gigantic pressure. so, i'm returning back to demo account for one month or more if necessary. honing skill also back testing MO and MM. hoping i could tame my mount of ego and see things more clearly. thanks for all kindness of advice that have been given to me. good luck to you all. Regards
yes if pressure is over bearing, then you operating out of comfort zone.
Best take a break.

I feel demo is ok.

back testing have little benefits.
may create illusions of performance from historical scars.
worst is getting false confidence.
The markets they not going happen same way again.
and you not going get same feels and emotions again.


regards
  • #39,526
  • Edited 5:12am Apr 3, 2013 4:54am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting ukmanthailan
The more I trade, the more I realise that, for me at least, it is understanding why I do what I do that helps me the most, instead of trying to understand why the market does what it does. I cannot control where price will go but I can try to control my reactions to price movements and attempt to make rational decisions rather than ones based on anger, pride and other ego-related feelings. This is probably really obvious to everyone else on this thread but it only just hit me a few weeks ago. I had flipped my position and doubled in size at the...
not really my friend.
your experiences may help others.

what you said is very true.
YoU factor is very big component in the mix.
Is the foundation where the decision processes eminates from.
it may not drive some of the performance but its what keeps you alive under stress.
most traders not know about this.
Only needs 1 mistake under the wrong conditions and boom.

an err not become a mistake, unless is not corrected.

Mindset is critical. Mostly peeps are careless. Or too rigid, sometimes rushing.
Gambling takes the cake.

2 persons can be doing same thing while their mind set is while 1 is gambling another is performing strategic allignments.
it depends on what they are doing on book and under what terrains they managing.
This called risk management. These many years i had tried guided to best practises.

Those think they have holi grill, normally gets grilled.
The markets are alive.
Is not a question of whether it will happen, is a question of when and under what conditions it happens.

every pip gained have potential for same loss.
and althought is difficult to ascertain what the gain, is paramount important to keep loss in manageble perspective.



regards
  • #39,527
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:07am Apr 3, 2013 5:07am
Quoting fti
not really my friend. your experiences may help others. what you said is very true. YoU factor is very big component in the mix. Is the foundation where the decision processes eminates from. it may not drive some of the performance but its what keeps you alive under stress. most traders not know about this. Only needs 1 mistake under the wrong conditions and boom. Mindset is critical. Mostly peeps are careless. Or too rigid, sometimes rushing. Gambling takes the cake. 2 persons can be doing same thing while their mind set is while 1 is gambling...
I like that. I've definitely been lightly flambéed a few times by the market and positively incinerated once or twice
  • #39,528
  • Edited 5:26am Apr 3, 2013 5:16am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I like that. I've definitely been lightly flambéed a few times by the market and positively incinerated once or twice
ya happens to every one.
What most important is you survives and make necessary adjustments not to get grilled again.
Mostly peeps come to markets trying manage profits.

In my book, profits is easy pissy for me manage .
Is the downside risk i always watching out for.

If i get aggressive on trades i make sure i have enough foreign cap pay for the dinner.
Otherwise eat humble pie.

Even some risk, with accumulated forign cap.
sometime i still gets the bill for others dinner.
but thats part of the managing. Cannot win every trade.

I like stay consistenly making, holding to best practises mindset.
So no 1 trade can take me out.
neither can i make fortune from 1 trade. ant work.

Basically i already gave in detail on the thread and how to get there.
some things may seem trivial.
but is standing up carelessly that gets soldiers shot. esp when they think they bullet proof.

regards
  • #39,529
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:26am Apr 3, 2013 5:26am
Quoting fti
yes if pressure is over bearing, then you operating out of comfort zone. Best take a break. I feel demo is ok. back testing have little benefits. may create illusions of performance from historical scars. worst is getting false confidence. The markets they not going happen same way again. and you not going get same feels and emotions again. regards

Thanks Fti. i will note it

ups, i think i have a little misconceived.
my bad, my english is terrible.
i don't know if backtesting is a jargon.

i just knew it from wikipedia:
"Backtesting is jargon used in financial industries to refer to testing a trading strategy or predictive model using existing historic data."

and what i mean about back testing is just testing a trading strategy.
since my MO get in touch only with the present price.
i don't use predictive model of historic data.

i don't believe trade with rocket science or some hocus pocus fortune teller.
i think market just simply about supply and demand,
clash between sellers and buyers


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,530
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:29am Apr 3, 2013 5:29am
Quoting frz
Thanks Fti. i will note it ups, i think i have a little misconceived. my bad, my english is terrible. i don't know if backtesting is a jargon. i just knew it from wikipedia: "Backtesting is jargon used in financial industries to refer to testing a trading strategy or predictive model using existing historic data." and what i mean about back testing is just testing a trading strategy. since my MO get in touch only with the present price. i don't use predictive model of historic data. i don't believe trade with rocket science or some...
a small correction.

price is about demand and supply.
markets is about dealers spreads and brokers shades.
strategies, greed, fear, capitalisation, money management.........basically skills.

lucky is about not get killed in hairy situations.
good trades are those that you losing but net out winner.

Good traders is about consistency in performance over lifetime.
Bad traders are those makes lots and loses even more.


regards
  • #39,531
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:43am Apr 3, 2013 5:43am
Quoting fti
a small correction. price is about demand and supply. markets is about dealers shades and brokers spreads. strategies, greed, fear, capitalisation, money management.........basically skills. regards
ok, i have another misconceived.
i have very little knowledge on the economy land.
it means i have much home work to do,
also learn to recognise the news that have significant impact to market.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,532
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:48am Apr 3, 2013 5:48am
Quoting frz
ok, i have another misconceived. i have very little knowledge on the economy land. it means i have much home work to do, also learn to recognise the news that have significant impact to market. Regards
learning is good.

you know those big $$$ performers?
when they make big , have big celebration.

Good traders, making pips is an every day affair. Nothing to celebrate. Is an expected.
most boring thing in the world. but sure beats losing.

the $$ you get is very boring, only things it can do for you makes exciting.
But if you gets excited, normally your downfall has begun.


regards
  • #39,533
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:10am Apr 3, 2013 6:10am
Quoting fti
learning is good. you know those big $$$ performers? when they make big , have big celebration. Good traders, making pips is an every day affair. Nothing to celebrate. Is an expected. most boring thing in the world. but sure beats losing. the $$ you get is very boring, only things it can do for you makes exciting. But if you gets excited, normally your downfall has begun. regards
HI Chief,

Just a dumb question... but who is in control of the IMF? are they owned by US of A?

regards,
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #39,534
  • Edited 8:35pm Apr 3, 2013 6:10am | Edited 8:35pm
Quoting fti
learning is good. you know those big $$$ performers? when they make big , have big celebration. Good traders, making pips is an every day affair. Nothing to celebrate. Is an expected. most boring thing in the world. but sure beats losing. the $$ you get is very boring, only things it can do for you makes exciting. But if you gets excited, normally your downfall has begun. regards

wow, sure it would change my mind back to start again.
honestly, my mind is poisoned by getting rich quick. LOL

but, in other side of my mind.
i think trade is like another art.. polishing skill step by step. lifetime learning.
i love to trade. i love this job.
and i think i have missing a piece of it.
understanding of making a simple life.
because trading is just like another profession. there's no different.

"the $$ you get is very boring, only things it can do for you makes exciting.
But if you gets excited, normally your downfall has begun"
yes, i have think about it too..
but, sometimes hard to having the balance.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,535
  • Edited 8:32am Apr 3, 2013 6:17am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting dongsky
HI Chief, Just a dumb question... but who is in control of the IMF? are they owned by US of A? regards,
the imf is a private NGO set up as financial body to assist in financial funding to 3rd world countries.
lender of last resorts.
US is biggest contributor to that fund.
But these days i am not very sure of their mission statement anymore.

regards

many organisations are set up for specific purposes, but as time passes some outlive their purpose and evolves.
they not created by God.

The word 官 loosely translated as governing body is made up of different calligraphy.
has two 口, translated as mouth. This old chinese. i not know how they write new chinese word.
and on top of it is a very encompassing roof.
When i was young Dad taught me, every chinese word, enbeded has much meaning.

Even ancient histroy and events and stuff is in there.
Takes more than 1 day explain 1 word.
Want know about God?
http://www.answersingenesis.org/arti...rs-and-genesis

Chinese calligraphy are drawings of stuff in words.
sometimes can even see intestines type drawings.
just look at this.鳥
means bird.

and this chicken. 雞
this goat.羊

here's horse 馬 and mom媽. ai ay very spirited.

now adays panda have new way draw stuff. the lazy meaningless way.
anyway is meaningless to me, i cannot understand.
horses has no legs and stuff.

if God was as llazy, humans would had been created with no brains.
and all would be happy gay and extinct.
ai ya some brains are so damaged.
  • #39,536
  • Apr 3, 2013 10:35am Apr 3, 2013 10:35am
Chief,

Preety girls and Music togther should cheer you up

Inserted Video



V
  • #39,537
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:08pm Apr 3, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting fti
the imf is a private NGO set up as financial body to assist in financial funding to 3rd world countries. lender of last resorts. US is biggest contributor to that fund. But these days i am not very sure of their mission statement anymore. regards many organisations are set up for specific purposes, but as time passes some outlive their purpose and evolves. they not created by God. The word 官 loosely translated as governing body is made up of different calligraphy. has two 口, translated as mouth. This old chinese. i not know how they...

Thank you Chief, appreciated much. 羊
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #39,538
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:16pm Apr 3, 2013 11:16pm
Quoting fti
a small correction. price is about demand and supply. markets is about dealers spreads and brokers shades. strategies, greed, fear, capitalisation, money management.........basically skills. lucky is about not get killed in hairy situations. good trades are those that you losing but net out winner. Good traders is about consistency in performance over lifetime. Bad traders are those makes lots and loses even more. regards
I love your quotes,, sir,,

Good traders is about consistency in performance over lifetime.
Bad traders are those makes lots and loses even more.

salaam
  • #39,539
  • Apr 4, 2013 5:02am Apr 4, 2013 5:02am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief, Preety girls and Music togther should cheer you up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbaNGU1CrXI V
wow, so much energy.
thanks vic, i am so exhausted, i think i slept for long long time.
woke up saw this.
this beautiful, Andre Rieu and gang.

I wished i can get this type energy get life back on the road again.
wroom... wroom.

Ai ya but i must not be deceived of the reality.
nevertheless i must try carefully get out of the shell.

thank you my friend, this very energetic.

regards
  • #39,540
  • Edited 6:04am Apr 4, 2013 5:07am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting mr.kho
I love your quotes,, sir,, Good traders is about consistency in performance over lifetime. Bad traders are those makes lots and loses even more. salaam
i like them too.
these not quotes.
i live by them.
Was my goals and work in life for sometime. Training for corps. the best of the best.


but every where i was,corp politics always got in the way.
even when i was promised , "you will be above the politics."
After the old guard died, and new leaders came on.
most painful was when i saw some trained men fall, because they given task thats destroyed their training. Their mindset.
nothing last forever. after spring comes winter.

regards
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