jwpdad's Journal

Final pip count for April 3 is +13 weighted, markets continue to basically not go anywhere, see what happens tomorrow.

Just popped in to see how you're doing today, jwp... lookin' good!

Hey Geppy, thanks, very good day today, I am waiting for the last trade to resolve before reporting the pip count.

Final pip count for April 4 is +321 weighted. Done for the week, no trading on NFP Friday for me. Final pip count for the week is +359 weighted. For my explanation of weighted pips, see post #129.

So far since I changed my approach and reduced leverage while taking multiple trades per day, things have been going well. There have been 7 trading days for me in these 2 weeks, I did not trade Good Friday March 29, Easter Monday April 1, or NFP Friday April 5. Per the above quote, I have had 2 very strong winning days, 1 good day, 3 breakeven days (all slightly positive), and one bad day. The pips gained have been a little better than expected per my testing, there were a couple days where the market moved strongly in my favor.

The graph shows this, previously I had some large gains but then a week of substantial drawdown, now the graph is more level and consistent with the good days mentioned above accounting for the positive growth in equity. It's only been 2 weeks and a lot more time is needed to observe the extent to which this will continue, but my testing shows that this should be about right.

Hi jwpdad,

I've started reading trading in the zone by mark douglas. I must say its really a good read.

Btw what kins of time frame do.you trade on? It seems like you're on a lower time frame?

wow finally something/someone worth reading on FF.

you clearly have the correct mindset and thought process, I have read the whole thing so far and don't smell a ounce of BS which is rare around here.

I wish you all the best on your future endeavours and I have subbed to this thread.

We seem to have a similar trading method just different tools as triggers.

Keep it up

Love Trading in the Zone, you can google Mark Douglas Mind Over Market for a very good interview with him. For the most part I trade on M15, sometimes on M30 depending on the situation.

I just ran across this passage from Trading in the Zone, it is very ironic that to be confident in your edge you have to accept uncertainty, as simple as that may seem it is a difficult thing to come to terms with.

This passage is talking about a trader who feels like he has to be right on every trade:

"He is desperately trying to create certainty where it just doesn’t exist. The irony is that if he completely accepted the fact that certainty doesn’t exist, he would create the certainty he craves: He would be absolutely certain that certainty doesn’t exist. When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment, your frustration with trading will end. Furthermore, you will no longer be susceptible to making all the typical trading errors that detract from your potential to be consistent and destroy your sense of self-confidence."

Thanks, I know what you mean that sometimes it's hard to sift through some of the stuff that's being posted on FF, but there is a lot of good information too. One has to find the golden nuggets that can be used to suit their own personal trading style and incorporate that into their trading method. Don't ever take anything on here as gospel, including anything that I have to say, everyone must do their own due diligence in all aspects of trading. But I can't BS anything at least in terms of trading results, the trade explorer will keep me honest. The good, bad, and ugly is all here for everyone to see.

Been kind of a boring day so far, only 1 valid trade so far per my method and it's a little bit negative right now. My first trade on EURGBP was not a correct entry, managed to get out of that at BE. We'll see what happens the rest of the day, no big news events on the calendar today so something else might have to happen for some volatility to kick in, maybe NY opening will drive some activity.

Patience pays, only 1 trade today, took forever to go anywhere but finally ended with 48 pips.

Final pip count for April 8 is +40 weighted.

Final pip count for April 9 is -67 weighted.

Final pip count for April 10 is -14 weighted.

Final pip count for April 11 is -75 weighted.

Final pip count for April 12 is +10 weighted. Final pip count for the week is -106 weighted. For my explanation of weighted pips, see post #129.

Hey jwpdad,

after reading the book, I've learn to accept the risk involved with every trade.

However, I am struggling now with trades where it goes in my direction but technical indicators do not signal an exit. However, due to news release or data, the trade will suddenly be stopped out due to the volatility. Psychologically, how do you manage your emotions? Do you tell yourself that you were wrong? or it was just a matter of probability that the trade didnt begin to trend and go further in your direction. (Currently im only trading kumo breakouts)

Cheers!

This can be very frustrating, I have had this happen where I have had trades go into profit only to turn and hit stop loss without getting an exit signal first. It's easy to say take the emotion out of it, just trade mechanically and trust your system, but I am a human being with real money on the line and it isn't always that simple. But I have also had trades that went well into profit, retraced against me out of profit, then went on to my full take profit. In that case the emotions are nearly euphoric, you have to reign those emotions in as well, don't get overconfident with the winners. The result of any individual trade doesn't matter, the overall results are what count.

I don't ever want to be seen as offering trading advice, so you have to test your own method then execute the trades per the methodology. When a trade has reached 40 or 50 pips positive I am often tempted to close the trade or trail the stop. But I keep telling myself that the only way to get +100 pips or more on a trade is to stick with it, my bigger winners all happened because I didn't cut the trade off early. Every trade has ebbs and flows which go for you and against you at any moment, all of my big winners had some periods of retracement.

I never, ever do that, the only times I have been wrong is when I made a mistake and took a trade that was not a valid setup, maybe I missed one thing that I look for and didn't realize it until after the trade was already on. Even then, you can't beat yourself up over an honest mistake, they happen. But as long as I have executed the trades properly, even on the losers, I know I have done the right thing and can live with the results. Last week was a losing week for me, but most of my last few trades on Friday were winners helping to reduce the damage. If I had given in to my frustration and stopped trading then the overall result would have been worse.

I see people talking on here about not overtrading, and that is true to the extent that one should never take trades out of emotion to try to win back losses, etc. But I am a huge believer in taking every signal that appears with the system that one is using. This is why extensive testing is needed before trading live so that the method is profitable across various market conditions to the extent that is possible. It also helps to find ways to limit whipsaws in the methodology, although they cannot be totally eliminated. But you never know which trades are going to be the good ones, all you can do is let each trade play out and see what happens. Then track the trades in a series of 20, or as I am doing now tracking by 20 trading days if that suits the method and your style better. There are always going to be some quirky trades that do something crazy and unexpected, it's just part of the trading life. Sometimes the crazy ones go in our favor, so it all comes out in the wash at the end.

Hey jwpdad!

Thank you for taking time to write such an insightful reply! I will continue to trade on demo and test out my strategy!

I will continue to remain patient (my biggest flaw) and monitor my results.

Cheers!

Final pip count for April 15 is -5 weighted.

Final pip count for April 16 is -70 weighted.

I am reporting final pip counts according to trades started on the day referenced in the post, so that is why I am just now reporting the pip count for yesterday, the EURGBP trade from yesterday just closed. In situations like this my results will appear different than what it says on the trade explorer, but it will all even out in the end.

Today's EURJPY trade has been an example of this for me, today has been a crazy day. My profit/loss stats have been all over the place, from looking really good to being strongly negative, some losses but then some nice winners. The EJ was way into profit, then out of profit briefly, then hit my take profit target. I am a big believer as I have said in letting the trade play out, the result of every trade should be either stop loss hit, take profit hit, or exit at proper exit signal. What those levels are will be according to your own method. If the stop levels are not too big but big enough to allow for some breathing room, the take profit levels are big enough to overcome the inevitable losses (I like them to be about 3x the stop), and the exit strategy is logical, then in the long run this puts the odds in your favor to trade profitably. Nothing is ever guaranteed, and there will certainly be losses along the way.