These clips might be taken off anytime.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o_YSY3w6K0

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGUmY0vSf2I

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1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

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Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Good-Bye FF | 857 Posts

These clips might be taken off anytime.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o_YSY3w6K0

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGUmY0vSf2I

- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 1,142 Posts

Disliked

Pay close attention because this has a lot to do with your trading.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdk9FG2aa3E

Ignored

Knowledge is a commodity.

- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 5,511 Posts

unfortunately the post has been extracted relating to dimensions,

im far from mastering this,but i am touching this truth,past data for me has merit,especially with levels of agreement which lead me to possible bias .

i dont think we will get anymore on this but certainally worth some thought and study !

im far from mastering this,but i am touching this truth,past data for me has merit,especially with levels of agreement which lead me to possible bias .

i dont think we will get anymore on this but certainally worth some thought and study !

The reason it happens is very similar to why alot of traders fail. Like traders backfit random filters on data to find profitable results over a period and expect it to work in the future when there is no common sense reason it should. Scientists do the same, of all the many studies across the world every year, some will and do happen to stumble across a random occurance of something, prove it exists and assume it will continue to exist when there is no common sense reason it should.

kind of like this en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redskins_Rule

Traders find random systems or TA threads on forums in books etc and then expect these random patterns to work without even knowing why they occur or if they occur at all and how often. The real way to learn to trade is to go find a reason why the market may be inefficient and then try to find the pattern in the maket to prove it. Or if you observe a pattern you think may be an inefficiency, try and find a common sense reason it may be happening and test it to see if you are right and that it is continuing to happen.

- | Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Newbie | 123 Posts

DislikedFor me, I still remember the day when the first time I asked the question:

"How and where the F*ck did they come up with [b]pi = 3.14159265... !!! ?"Ignored

We define the perimeter of a polygon as the sum of the lengths of all of its sides. If we imagine an ant walking around the perimeter of a circle, and then walking around the perimeter of a polygon of the same radius, it's clear that, as the number of sides of the polygon increases, the total length walked by the ant in going around the polygon will approach the total length walked in going around the circle. So, we'll just find the perimeter of a polygon with a very large number of sides.

http://www.physicsinsights.org/image...currance-1.png

- | Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Newbie | 123 Posts

Disliked

free yourself from your boxed thinking... You can calculate the volume without ever having access to itIgnored

Accordingly, if I know that total volume of the trades that caused last tick (e.g. price change from 1.34519 to 1.34524) is 200M USD, this fact,

- Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 884 Posts

DislikedAccordingly, if I know that total volume of the trades that caused last tick (e.g. price change from 1.34519 to 1.34524) is 200M USD, this fact,by itself, will not give me any valuable information to enhance my profitability.Ignored

Total volume would only indicate how thick or thin the market is at that given time, not neccesarily direction (which is what your after).

The more transactions occured the more 'stable' price is, the less the transactions the more 'unstable' price is.

200M USD from X.XX519 to X.XX524 doesnt necesarily indicate which group is in control (bears or bulls).

Its the same as me giving you the finale of a movie. The end. But if you watch the movie from the beginning WITHOUT knowing what the end entails (will evil win or lose?) then as the story unfolds it shows its tipping points as to what is likely to happen next. For example:

180M USD from X.XX519 to X.XX524 from bulls.

020M USD from X.XX519 to X.XX524 from bears.

(Yet at any given moment that can change lol.)

Of course if your predicting that 200Mio is what will make price continue for the next 15m, 30m, 1hour then that in itself is speculation.

The question is, will that 'dissected' 200Mio impact a continuation for the next few ticks, seconds, minutes? If so how can you exploit this information on a recurring manner?

I havent a clue, but theory does sound simple ey?

First i like your post about intangible construct, my master always said

- nobody know which way the price will move and where it stop

- price is moved because there is transaction done by market participants

- where price tendency movement direction depends completely on the accumulation transactions that dominate the current market

- transactions domination will Weakens for two things, first : when one market participants can not accept price above current highest price or below current lowest price. Second is: when the volume of transaction is small. small transaction volume it happens only caused by two thing, First : there is only small amount of market participant on that time (holiday,etc) second: waiting for the right moment to flood in

- accumulated transaction domination and the weakening of it establish two condition in trading which is trending and ranging/sideway

from 5 points above we can assume:

- there is no way to predict where the price will move because too many variable involved in, don't make it hard and difficult by sayingbig boys, market maker and blablabla because whatever they are, they still buyer and seller just like us which tryingto squezze profit out of forex market, the price move not by news risk on risk off, not by moving average etc, it move because of at that moment the accumulated transaction (buyer or seller) dominated the market even if US is bombed by terrorist but the people is still want to buy usd then the price will move up right (just an extreme example in reality let the market decide), we all know before nfp released the price will ranging and when the news released the market move like crazy then after moving to one direction for some time it suddenly reverse, it's not because moving indicator or fibonaci retracement it because the majority of market participant doesn't accept the price to move below or above it. the last is the one which i recall after reading your post about intangible constant,,no matter what there is only 2 move in market trending and ranging, if we go deeper we can assume ranging is where buyer and seller feel comfortable to trade in that price range, we can assume ranging is when buyer and seller domination is in balance, after the balance disrupted then the price trending, after some time because of the reason on point 4 then ranging again it always like this from the beginning of market. if we separate our focus on multi time frame we could see example on h4 trending but if we zoom in to m5 or m15 maybe right now the current price is ranging, if we see price is trending in m15 or m5 maybe right now in daily chart it is still ranging...the point is this constant pattern of ranging and trending appear simultaneously in each time frame the key is which time frame for the main focus, which time frame for big map, and which time frame for execution (but ignore the time we just want to see what is inside and outside by zoom in time frame and zoom out time frame) and entry in sideway condition because in sideway condition the price range is narrow and the border are clearly visible so we can set our stop loss not too far away (since we cannot predict the price movement),,for the tools we can simply use available indicator in mt4 which have deviation in it which in statistic majorly known 3 deviation 68,xx deviation 1, 97,xx deviation 2, 99,xx deviation 3 and so on but there will be no 100% deviation. we can assume if price move inside deviation 1 then price is distributed normaly (ranging) and deviated xx% persen from the average at the moment we can assume trending if price move to the outside of deviation 1..but still its not the indicator but what the chart tell about the current moment hope is not confusing

oh yeah i forgot to add 2 laws:

"the big wave is formed by small waves and the small wave direction is following the big wave direction"

"price move from area of agreement to area of agreement before or make a new area of agreement" use modus in statistic to identify the area of price agreement where the movement goes use linear regresion on statistic to calculate dynamic data slope

- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Member | 1,596 Posts

Pipalicious,

Ref post #487. Right on.......Right on. What will happen next is always the question.

________________________

Ref post #487. Right on.......Right on. What will happen next is always the question.

________________________

- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 5,511 Posts

Dislikedfind this thread interesting somehow it's remind me of my master teaching,,I'm a pre-newbie and english is not my native so please pardon me if what i'm trying to say is confusing.

First i like your post about intangible construct, my master always said

- nobody know which way the price will move and where it stop

- price is moved because there is transaction done by market participants

- where price tendency movement direction depends completely on the accumulation transactions that dominate the current market

- transactions domination will...Ignored

i agree with much of what you say here,especially regarding levels of agreement,averaged levels,cross referencing time perspectives and there convergences to one point

.

- | Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Newbie | 123 Posts

Everything has a purpose, even this, and it's up to you to find it.

- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 474 Posts

Hi everybody, I've found this thread after reading the first CP's thread just a few time ago, so sorry me for my late introducing.

First of all I'd like to thanks CP because his posts are plenty of wisdom and they helped me a lot to understand what I've struggling to understand for years; my trading has changed a lot.

Please allow me to post my thoughts about the argument.

Let's start from coin tossing and probabilities...let's assume the game is tossing the coin one time only, the probabilities are 50%...right.

Now let's assume instead the game is tossing the coin 10 times, the result will be very different and we cannot calculate probabilities, why?

because the assumed is wrong: everytime we toss the coin it's a new game, so the calculation starts from the begining each time. This is how probabilities calculation works.

This relates to CP's statement that 95% of times price will close above or below it's opening and with the concept of trend: we can say that everytime we enter the market at the opening we have an odd in our favor that is we have 95% probabilities to end above or below our entry point, but we have only 50% probabilities to get the right direction or to be with the trend.

We say that Trend is just a line from A to B because is a subjective concept as well as market structure is fractal, so in reality it has no direction, it has no high, no low, no right, no left, from any angle you look at it is always equal to itself. Therefore trend is a conventional concept but at the same time is a reality because it indicates the direction that money flow is going to take at a particular moment, so also a direction exists and also highs (up) and lows (down) exist, but due to the fractal structure it depends of our perception to see if the direction is up or down.

The odd in our favor is that the directions can be only two, so they are finit inside the infinity and we do know the the probabilities to be right or wrong are equals (50%).

Said that if my stops are smaller than my targets (but I do need to know where to exit too) I can still be profitable, if when I realize that the money flow is going against me I'd just close my first entry and enter in the opposite direction.

Looking at this like a picture one could say that it's all a big mess and the market is random, but as we do know that the market has a fractal structure, this conclusion is not acceptable because a fractal structure is not random but to see it you must zoom in.

So if the market structure is fractal and therefore is not random, also price movements cannot be random but must have a structure, better the same structure. Let's go back to the starlings flight, that is the best example....the randomness of their flight is only apparent, in reality their flight is structured, there are many little groups flying in a direction for a short distance while others are flying in another direction always for a short distance, then they come back and so on, but each little group is always aggregate...then there are external events, like a predator hunting them, that makes starlings aggregate all in a big group and fly in a direction that has a bigger extension than the one they were used to have during the period of calm, but the structure is the same...is not linear, it is a zig zag direction to confuse predators, but is pointing anyway in the same direction, which? the opposite of predators direction.....I think this is a great similitude to explain market behaviour.

Now the big odd is that these movements, as they have a structure, they have a constant that can be measured and the constant should be pi.

Why pi? because due to the fractal structure of the universe everything always tend to go back where it has come from, and so market does.

This is infinity inside finity, exactly like a circle and pi obviously is the only tool we have to take the measure of it.

At this point, many of you will laugh and I'll do with you....iI confess that after all this reasoning, I' still am struggling to understand how to apply it to real trading

First of all I'd like to thanks CP because his posts are plenty of wisdom and they helped me a lot to understand what I've struggling to understand for years; my trading has changed a lot.

Please allow me to post my thoughts about the argument.

Let's start from coin tossing and probabilities...let's assume the game is tossing the coin one time only, the probabilities are 50%...right.

Now let's assume instead the game is tossing the coin 10 times, the result will be very different and we cannot calculate probabilities, why?

because the assumed is wrong: everytime we toss the coin it's a new game, so the calculation starts from the begining each time. This is how probabilities calculation works.

This relates to CP's statement that 95% of times price will close above or below it's opening and with the concept of trend: we can say that everytime we enter the market at the opening we have an odd in our favor that is we have 95% probabilities to end above or below our entry point, but we have only 50% probabilities to get the right direction or to be with the trend.

We say that Trend is just a line from A to B because is a subjective concept as well as market structure is fractal, so in reality it has no direction, it has no high, no low, no right, no left, from any angle you look at it is always equal to itself. Therefore trend is a conventional concept but at the same time is a reality because it indicates the direction that money flow is going to take at a particular moment, so also a direction exists and also highs (up) and lows (down) exist, but due to the fractal structure it depends of our perception to see if the direction is up or down.

The odd in our favor is that the directions can be only two, so they are finit inside the infinity and we do know the the probabilities to be right or wrong are equals (50%).

Said that if my stops are smaller than my targets (but I do need to know where to exit too) I can still be profitable, if when I realize that the money flow is going against me I'd just close my first entry and enter in the opposite direction.

Looking at this like a picture one could say that it's all a big mess and the market is random, but as we do know that the market has a fractal structure, this conclusion is not acceptable because a fractal structure is not random but to see it you must zoom in.

So if the market structure is fractal and therefore is not random, also price movements cannot be random but must have a structure, better the same structure. Let's go back to the starlings flight, that is the best example....the randomness of their flight is only apparent, in reality their flight is structured, there are many little groups flying in a direction for a short distance while others are flying in another direction always for a short distance, then they come back and so on, but each little group is always aggregate...then there are external events, like a predator hunting them, that makes starlings aggregate all in a big group and fly in a direction that has a bigger extension than the one they were used to have during the period of calm, but the structure is the same...is not linear, it is a zig zag direction to confuse predators, but is pointing anyway in the same direction, which? the opposite of predators direction.....I think this is a great similitude to explain market behaviour.

Now the big odd is that these movements, as they have a structure, they have a constant that can be measured and the constant should be pi.

Why pi? because due to the fractal structure of the universe everything always tend to go back where it has come from, and so market does.

This is infinity inside finity, exactly like a circle and pi obviously is the only tool we have to take the measure of it.

At this point, many of you will laugh and I'll do with you....iI confess that after all this reasoning, I' still am struggling to understand how to apply it to real trading

Disliked...This relates to CP's statement that 95% of times price will close above or below it's opening and with the concept of trend ...Ignored

Price goes up, price comes down. Most of the time, price will move one way or another to a new location. I think the only lesson CP wants you to take out of this is to think about is WHY does this happen?

But hey, I'm not genius either...perhaps I'm also missing something here!! =P

Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar

- Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 1,797 Posts

DislikedI don't think you're supposed to read that part too literally to the point you should be constructing a trading system out of it. Price goes up, price comes down. Most of the time, price will move one way or another to a new location. I think the only lesson CP wants you to take out of this is to think about is WHY does this happen? But hey, I'm not genius either...perhaps I'm also missing something here!! =PIgnored

- Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 1,797 Posts

DislikedI don't trade this way but maybe I should. If you search Line in the sand, there is an interesting take on just this type of trading. The idea is pick a price (the open price may work). Go short or long at that price. When the price revisits that line flip positions. Repeat until the price moves away for good on the day. The odds of the price ending the day at your line are very small. The trick is to get enough movement away to make a profit above the cost of the position swaps. A clue about how to do this would be a statistical investigation to...Ignored

- | Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Newbie | 123 Posts

DislikedIn one of CP's other threads he states that you need a line on a chart and your goal is to always be long above it and short below it. What is the level he is speaking of? I have no idea. Does the level matter? Again no idea. Is CP a good trader and someone you should be paying attention to? No idea. I do know though that others speak of this same type of long above and short below methodology with respect to their trading. Could a daily open or session open price work in this context? Maybe.Ignored

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- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 474 Posts

CP is talking pi as the elegant math constant and this could make sense as the market flow follows cycles, but you can find pi where ever you want; so which is the point of all this reasoning? how do you apply pi to real trading?

CP don't you think you have teased us enough? isn't the time to be a bit more concret?

CP don't you think you have teased us enough? isn't the time to be a bit more concret?

DislikedIn one of CP's other threads he states that you need a line on a chart and your goal is to always be long above it and short below it. What is the level he is speaking of? I have no idea. Does the level matter? Again no idea. Is CP a good trader and someone you should be paying attention to? No idea. I do know though that others speak of this same type of long above and short below methodology with respect to their trading. Could a daily open or session open price work in this context? Maybe.Ignored

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