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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #341
  • Apr 4, 2013 5:34am Apr 4, 2013 5:34am
Quoting Fishcoo
Hi 100PipsADay Most of my JPY cross positions hited the SL . So sad , but this is the market. I will stick to the strategy and i believe that if we keep following the rules , we will experience great results in the long run.
I have a feeling that most here who took short positions were stopped out with JPY pairs. However, we should now be seeing the D1 MACD turn bullish in the next 1-2 days for USD/JPY as well as ALL of the JPY cross pairs which puts them back into their current weekly uptrend. I guess we won't be forming new "higher lows" from a weekly perspective...

I think I'm going to call it a night, talk to you tomorrow buddy.
  • #342
  • Apr 4, 2013 7:00am Apr 4, 2013 7:00am
Quoting Fishcoo
Current Open Positions when i used Third Screen Strategy from March 27.Great system,simple and powerful. {image} {image}
d


fishcoo

is that on a demo account.


my gbpjpy was a few pips away from being stopped out, the last time i checked. audcad - decided to leave that running. closed have the position though at near BE. so wont be too much of a pain if get stopped out. however looking forward to adding a further position if price moves below current 4 hr support and provided the williams 1hr is overbought of course. shall wait and observe.

audnzd still running.
  • #343
  • Apr 4, 2013 7:05am Apr 4, 2013 7:05am
With such a bearish Japanese CB announcement surprising the market, it's going to be hard to try and short yen pairs for awhile IMO. I'm also looking and waiting for daily MACD to turn back up and buy dips.
  • #344
  • Apr 4, 2013 8:23am Apr 4, 2013 8:23am
gbpjpy short stopped out . - 160 pips.
  • #345
  • Apr 4, 2013 8:31am Apr 4, 2013 8:31am
got stopped out on all by 1 jpy trade (which i then closed manually at -125 pips).

sad times
  • #346
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:43am Apr 4, 2013 9:43am
In the future, I recommend NOT having open positions on the day CB interest rate decision unless you keep a TIGHT SL. Very volatile day with three central bank rate decisions. This recommendation is just based on my experience. Been there, done that. Sorry for your losses. Get back on the horse and good luck.
  • #347
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:44am Apr 4, 2013 9:44am
Quoting whatfx
d fishcoo is that on a demo account. my gbpjpy was a few pips away from being stopped out, the last time i checked. audcad - decided to leave that running. closed have the position though at near BE. so wont be too much of a pain if get stopped out. however looking forward to adding a further position if price moves below current 4 hr support and provided the williams 1hr is overbought of course. shall wait and observe. audnzd still running.
Hi whatfx

That is a real account.But every position is 0.01 lot.Most of Yen cross positions hited the SL,so i will wait the D1 MACD then open the long opsitions.Because the Weekly trend of the Yen is still bullish.

BR
Fishcoo
  • #348
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:10am Apr 4, 2013 11:10am
Nomura recommends buying AUD/JPY, targeting a 105 with a stop at 97 for the next two to three months. Hopefully we'll get a good pullback to go long with this target.
  • #349
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:41pm Apr 4, 2013 9:41pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
In the future, I recommend NOT having open positions on the day CB interest rate decision unless you keep a TIGHT SL. Very volatile day with three central bank rate decisions. This recommendation is just based on my experience. Been there, done that. Sorry for your losses. Get back on the horse and good luck.
I had a detailed response to this but my browser just froze up on me!

Anyways, I'll try it again... I agree with you that trading during high impact news releases can be risky, however, this system is purely technical so we disregard any and all fundamentals. From my experience it is clear that most news events rarely can reverse the current trend from a weekly perspective but will cause "spikes" which typically knock traders out of their current positions if their SL is too tight.

Unfortunately for most here, this is exactly what happened yesterday.

JPY: The BoJ has made it clear that they are going to do everything in their power to weaken the Yen as to stimulate their economy and pull themselves out of deflation. This has been clear to me for the past 6 months but price stalled for most JPY cross pairs AND we had solid sell signals according to our system, so we took the short trades. However, the decisions made and released by the BOJ yesterday made it clear that we will now see more weakening of the JPY so our best bet is to go LONG on USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, and NZD/JPY in order to take advantage of the BOJ's current monetary policy.

We will now look for the D1 MACD to cross to the upside (which it already has for most pairs) and enter when H1 is showing "over sold" using Williams %. Yesterday is a good example of how the FOREX market is, no matter what we think we know, we can always be wrong and must be prepared for this. So never over leverage yourself with any particular trade.

EUR: Yesterday one of the well known and respected members on FOREX Factory brought the following to my attention:

3 Possibilities for the EUR:
1. There will be no ECB rate cut today
2. The press conference will be the kicker coz the market will be intensely looking for any hints that a rate cut will come this year.
3. If there is a hint of a possible rate cat, watch the USD soar like an eagle and drag risk currencies down. If not, then I expect a corrective rally on most Euro crosses.

As we all know the EUR rallied against the USD as well as most of the other currencies due to "whatever" was said and perceived by the market. We can't foresee this so all we can do is trade what we see and make sure that we don't over leverage our accounts so that we are able to trade another day. I sincerely hope that everybody here who is following our system was not affected too much with the current moves in the market and is still able to follow our system for the long haul.

IMPORTANT: Last thing, our swing strategy which is a trend strategy should be viewed as a mid to long term strategy. Don't take results by the day or even by the week. Try to look at this from a quarterly (3 month) perspective so as to not get disappointed when you experience a string of losses. This system has proven to be reliable and profitable for the long term and I am wishing the best for anybody who chooses to follow it!

1st Chart: Current Open Positions
2nd Chart: ALL closed positions since March 18
3rd Chart: Total Profit and Loss in $

As you can see I'm still up over 1,000 pips since March 18. Not too bad, but could have been better...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-04-04_1633.png Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Closed_Positions.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: PNL.png Size: 11 KB
  • #350
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:43am Apr 5, 2013 12:43am
Hi 100PipsADay
Thanks for your post.It is very usefull to me.I think we should trust the system and follow the rules all the time.So we will be successful for the long term .

Add a long position on USDJPY at 96.29 when H1 is showing "over sold" using Williams %.
  • #351
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:58am Apr 5, 2013 12:58am
Quoting Fishcoo
Hi 100PipsADay Thanks for your post.It is very usefull to me.I think we should trust the system and follow the rules all the time.So we will be successful for the long term . Add a long position on USDJPY at 96.29 when H1 is showing "over sold" using Williams %.
You're welcome Fishcoo, I hope the moves last night did not hurt you too bad. I am also getting ready to go long on AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and CAD/JPY.

H1 Williams % is almost over sold...
  • #352
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:08am Apr 5, 2013 1:08am
Quoting MKFXTrader
Nomura recommends buying AUD/JPY, targeting a 105 with a stop at 97 for the next two to three months. Hopefully we'll get a good pullback to go long with this target.
I am going to have to agree with Nomura 100%!

AUD/JPY

Waiting for H1 to show "over sold" like normal.

1st Chart: Weekly Support / Resistance
2nd Chart: D1 MACD
3rd Chart: H1 Williams %
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_Weekly_(4-4).png Size: 123 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_D1_MACD_(4-4).png Size: 108 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_H1_Williams_(4-4).png Size: 107 KB
  • #353
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:13am Apr 5, 2013 1:13am
Quoting 100PipsADay
You're welcome Fishcoo, I hope the moves last night did not hurt you too bad. I am also getting ready to go long on AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and CAD/JPY. H1 Williams % is almost over sold...
Most of the Yen cross positions hited SL last night.But every position is only 0.01 lot.so the loss was not very large.Do you think we should close the positions on the day CB interest rate decision last time?100PipsADay.It shows very risky if we hava a lot of positions.
  • #354
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:28am Apr 5, 2013 1:28am
Quoting Fishcoo
Most of the Yen cross positions hited SL last night.But every position is only 0.01 lot.so the loss was not very large. Do you think we should close the positions on the day CB interest rate decision last time?100PipsADay.It shows very risky if we hava a lot of positions.
Good question, and I'll have to say that it is completely up to the trader. Let's take the JPY cross pairs for example, I was short on USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and EUR/JPY so one could say that I was over exposed to JPY as I was trading multiple pairs. This is why once I saw the spike UP on the USD/JPY and cross pairs I started closing out trades manually as it was clear that we were going higher.

However, I posted the following yesterday: News is relevant only when it contributes to break sequences of measured moves induced by Program Trading on the larger time frames, i.e. daily and weekly. But very rarely news is capable of doing that: what can really change market direction is huge and coordinated participation from smart money and/or central banks. For instance, the S&P500 was turned higher twice in the last 3 years: the first time in March 2009 and the second time in May-July 2011 by the intervention of the FED with Quantitative Easing initiatives.

I stand by this statement as it is almost always right. In the case with the BOJ last night the decisions made by them actually put the USD/JPY as well as the JPY cross pairs back into their weekly trend. Our "sell" positions were based off of solid signals, however, they were counter trend in terms of the weekly time frame.

**If you are in profit and don't feel comfortable holding positions through high impact news releases, feel free to close them out. Remember, nobody ever went broke taking a profit!
  • #355
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:29am Apr 5, 2013 1:29am
USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, and GBP/JPY are all now in "over sold" territory on the H1 time frame.

It's time to buy!
  • #356
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:05am Apr 5, 2013 2:05am
Current Open Positions

I wanted to bring the following to everybody's attention real quick. The reason we don't wait for the H1 to close in over sold / over bought territory is because we want to make sure we take advantage of the the buy / sell opportunity before price takes off again in the overall direction. (refer to the chart)

IF price moves against us we all know that we can add another position! This is why we buy/sell immediately when price touches over sold / over bought area and we split up our actual trade into 4 positions

NOTE: I use a 260 SL and 350 TP for GBP/JPY due to the excessive volatility. Yesterday's GBP/JPY candle was roughly 600 pips!!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-04-04_2103.png Size: 154 KB
  • #357
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:43am Apr 5, 2013 2:43am
It's a good idear to split up our actual trade into 4 positions.That's why you open 2 positions on CADJPY and USDJPY, but only one position on the other pairs,am i right?100PipsADay
  • #358
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:47am Apr 5, 2013 2:47am
Quoting Fishcoo
This is why we buy/sell immediately when price touches over sold / over bought area and we split up our actual trade into 4 positions It's a good idear to split up our actual trade into 4 positions.That's why you open 2 positions on CADJPY, but only one position on the other pairs,am i right?100PipsADay
Well I will have a total of 4 positions for each pair sooner or later. I will either add if price moves against me and then when price moves in my favor.


Here is a good strategy you may want to consider when adding positions.

Open your first position for let's say CAD/JPY. If price moves against you by 20-60 pips then you open up one more. Be patient and wait until those two trades are in profit by 100 - 150 pips. Then add on your next two positions once H1 is showing over sold again on the next retrace.

So first two trades open up fairly close to each other, then wait to move in profit by at least 100 pips, then open up another 2 trades on the next pullback using H1 Williams indicator.

The above strategy of "scaling in new positions" works best for me but in the end, the decision is yours.
  • #359
  • Apr 5, 2013 3:01am Apr 5, 2013 3:01am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Well I will have a total of 4 positions for each pair sooner or later. I will either add if price moves against me and then when price moves in my favor. Here is a good strategy you may want to consider when adding positions. Open your first position for let's say CAD/JPY. If price moves against you by 20-60 pips then you open up one more. Be patient and wait until those two trades are in profit by 100 - 150 pips. Then add on your next two positions once H1 is showing over sold again on the next retrace. So first two trades open up fairly close...
Thank you for your good idear.
  • #360
  • Apr 5, 2013 3:06am Apr 5, 2013 3:06am
Quoting Fishcoo
Thank you for your good idear.
No problem FishCoo!
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