Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

U/J bulls, buyers are coming

I HOPE the bulls are coming. Been waiting for it to "test" 141 all day to load a better short!

Food for thought as the BoJ approaches tonight. A key phrase in most of the 7 policies is somewhat telling me thinks.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/18106/b...polices-expect

Also, Jay's a pretty smart cookie as well.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/16...-boj-statement

Bad call eh!

Maybe ... maybe not. I think it will likely just hover around here until the news.

My 140.80 short has been up and down a few pips since I took it 7 hours ago.

I see two lurkers I'd like to hear last minute thoughts from there Mr. Terry and Mr. Olu

Online trader

Oh man this is a tough one... It's really a gamble either way as there is no real way of telling what will happen.

"My" technicals are definitely telling me to SELL USD/JPY as well as all of the other JPY cross pairs but if the BOJ comes out guns blazin' this could obviously change the scenario. However, as we all know the market tends to price things in in advance and we have sort of been capped for the past 2 months now. Looking at the weekly charts I think we need to form new "higher lows" from a weekly perspective. This will attract new buyers in order for U/J and cross pairs to start their next leg up in the coming months.

Let's also keep in mind that the JPY already lost about 25% of its value against the USD since late 2012. That is definitely serious progress in the eyes of the BOJ.

I maintain my bearish bias for the time being and will hold all positions throughout the BOJ news releases today. If stops get hit so be it, I will accept the loss and reassess next week.

Thanks buddy.

That's been my feeling as well as I've posted this Yen index for quite some time (at nausium for some in here I'm sure...lol), feeling that at least a correction is due. I think the BoJ will come out cautious at first as their economy is already seeing some results from prior easing and pushing it too far too fast has other negative effects they'd like to avoid. My "guess" is they'll want to see the extent of those results before going all in. Plus Kudro still needs to get elected and guns a blazing probably won't sit well with those that don't share his views.

Like you, I'm pretty sure the long term for the Yen is weak as it pretty much has to be. But for now, it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see more strength before that happens. I'd like to see the Beast hit the 135ish area to start looking for longs.

A pullback to the 23.6% on this weekly index (roughly 50% of the last fall) would be sweet!

Maybe? Just maybe?

I have my TP at 140.10 but if it hits 30 before BoJ I'll take it.

there are bulls & bears..choose your side now..soon we will know. personally i'm on the bears side for now till 139.xx but thats just my opinion..
not calling any trades...D1; H4 & M5 on the same sides now.

You bring up some very valid points. First being, they have already experienced positive results from recent actions and would like to avoid the negative effects by pushing things "too far too fast" as you put it.

Kudro needs to get elected and like you said, not everybody shares his views.

Look at the recent sell off in USD/JPY as well as the cross pairs. It looks as though people are dumping their longs (taking profits) due to the unknown. Or, could it be that some players DO KNOW what is going to happen and are positioning themselves right now? Who knows...

Another point I brought up yesterday was that retail longs have been steadily increasing during the past month or so and I don't think the big boys are going to be giving out any free lunches.

What?? You don't think all those "very kind" rich folks are out there to help us? Why....I'm Shocked!!

And that's what I think all the hype over the past year about full blown easing is all about. To get folks buying the crosses.

My only question is, if it is to go south, how far north will they shake it before it does? ...

Today's BoJ 3 potential scenarios to watch for - Kathy Lien



FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Today's BoJ meeting, under the leadership of Governor Kuroda, is expected to trigger some wild swings in the Yen markets. According to Kathy Lien, co-founder at BKAsset Management, based on last week's comments, "he doesn't plan to keep the BoJ sitting on the their hands for another month."

"While most investors also expect Japan's central bank to announce new easing measures, the recent rally in the Yen suggests most expect the BoJ to underwhelm" Kathy says, adding that "Kuroda's team has many options at their disposal and the final announcement can take many forms." The analyst presents below 3 basic scenarios that traders should be watching.

From Kathy Lien:

Scenario #1 - BoJ Pull Forward Open Ended APP Program > Bullish for USD/JPY : The most aggressive announcement that the BoJ can make would be to pull forward their open ended Asset Purchase Program from 2014 to May 2013 or better yet, immediately. By shifting to unlimited QE, the central bank would prove to the market their level of commitment. This should come hand in hand with an extension of the duration of JGB purchases - the further out, the better. If they also increase the amount of risk assets bought beyond JGBs, it would be a perfectly wrapped gift to the economy and the market. Forex traders would most likely respond extremely well, taking USD/JPY up to 94 and possibly even 95.

Scenario #2 - Increase Scope and Maturity of their APP Program > Potential for Disappointment: While we would like to think the best of the BoJ, the second and most likely scenario is a contained expansion in monetary policy that would allow them to reevaluate the market's reaction and increase stimulus further at the end of the month. Currently the BoJ is buying JGBs up to 3 years, if they extend their purchases to 5 years and leave it at that, it would probably be interpreted as a disappointment. If they expand purchases to 10 years, it would be neutral to slightly bearish for USD/JPY but if they expand the maturity of bonds purchased to 30 years, it could lift USD/JPY but the gains would be nominal. Aside from the size and scope of asset purchases, the BoJ is also widely expected to form a new Asset Purchase fund by merging current JGB purchases with Rinban operations. They are also expected to abolish the banknote rule, which limits their long term JGB purchases to the amount of banknotes in circulation.

Scenario #3 - No Major Changes to APP Program > Bearish for USD/JPY: The third scenario would be the most disastrous for USD/JPY, which would be no major changes to the BoJ's asset purchase program. This is the least likely scenario because to forgo any major action would be a sign of weakness for the new central bank governor and raise the question of whether they will be able to make do on their promises at all. In this scenario, they would still probably abolish the banknote rule and merge JGB and Rinban purchases but that won't be enough.

Kathy ends her view on the BoJ meeting by connecting the dots with CFTC's IMM data, which suggests that many speculators remain short Yen, "so in order for the rally in USD/JPY to regain momentum, the BoJ will need to over deliver" she says, adding that "anything short of open ended QE and major expansion in the scope and duration of asset purchases may not be enough" Kathy concludes.

too much analysis guys. trading, in my view is simple. define the direction in reference to couple of higher time frames, press either sell or buy button, set your stop loss, eat the loss if you were wrong, keep adding more positions to your profit and let it run if you were right.
i do not understand how one can trade with "what if is this, what if that" thoughts always in their mind. correct me if i am wrong...

LOL

Good question and I wish I knew the answer myself... However, most of my USD/JPY and JPY cross pair trades are WELL in profit so I am not too worried.

Here is a screen shot of current open trades. (there are 2 more USD/JPY trades at the very top of the list at about 50+ pips profit each, didn't fit in the screen shot though)

Relax, it's just conversation to fill in a BORING time....

Do you really think we're trying to "predict" the unpredictable?

Consider yourself corrected.... (just kidding)

nice... i thought i got involved in some analyst chit-chat

Wow Dude, that's some pretty crappy results. You slipping or something?

Freaking AMAZING Terry!!

LOL thanks man.

Remember, all of these positions could go in the red with the news later today, OR, they could all move further into profit to hit their 280 pip TP targets!