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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,021
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:43pm Apr 3, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting TantumVerum
I don't want to get away too much from what you do SP, because like I said previously it seems we view the market similarly, but I look for "stacks". There is a large stack in the area where it turned. I count 4 there now, I believe 3 were present when your trade was validated. 2 of the 3 were potentially more important than the other. In addition to the 3-4 there is another placed within 15 pips to add more order support. This is not my attempt to invalidate the entry to the south either, but only to expand further on my previous statement to...
I wanted to answer this point earlier but had to pop out to the flicks (cinema). OK I understand the concept of stacks, of orders placed at specific levels where say an institution feels there is a value buy or where an institution thinks another institution has placed a lot of orders and so they want to climb on board for a ride. Yes these are the levels where price will turn because when the price is hit the orders on the banks books will be activated and there will be a lot of buying going on. Now we all seem to be accepting that bank A will look at the chart and say OK I want to buy at 1.2000 because that is yesterdays low and 4days ago there was a battle there and buyers won so there is the expectancy that most players in this pair will buy heavily again there - oh and economic news is good etc etc. That's an example. We also accept that smaller Bank B will look and say OK bank A has a big order there so we are going to follow suit and buy 4pips above the level and hold for 20pips. Now we accept that, it's levels. So why do we NOT accept that Bank A and B might draw in channels and say the same thing about the bottom of the channel - when price hits this line we expect most of the players to buy so we will also buy. There might not be orders on the books because it's impossible to tell what price will be when it retraces to the line but there is still a level line there and when it's hit orders are executed.

So I'm not suggesting price bounced because 'it hit a channel line' but that price bounced because major players use channel lines. Also lets not forget that not all forex trading is speculative. A lot of multi-nationals and national banks need currency at certain times and so to get it at a good price they might see a 5day upwards trend and decide to buy on a retrace to the bottom of the acceding channel line. I might be misunderstanding the mechanics there but that's a side point. It's very easy to overlook channels when seeing every significant level as horizontal.
  • #2,022
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:44pm Apr 3, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Thank you Steve, you are one of my favorites.
love u too.
  • #2,023
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:50pm Apr 3, 2013 4:50pm
Dam i´m good.

This realy works.

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/2168/m_2...279t-183kb.jpg
  • #2,024
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:06pm Apr 3, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
They are about the same over time. Often when price closes so close to the low as it did yesterday it will go down and go long off the low then reverse when it hits the daily open and then break the low. Just as often you see what happened today. The only answer I have is to take the first trade that is triggered and manage things from there. My problem is the managing. I can't stay up around the clock and I can't sleep during the day because I have the boys to take care of. If I were able to have stayed awake last night it would have been no big...
Hello,

Do you take longer term context into account or just go purely based off your rules?

What I mean by that is that for the last month or so, we've been in a fairly consistent pattern of movement in the EU. It goes range > break upwards > sharp break downwards all the way through the bottom side of the previous range > new range > repeat. Sort of like a downward channel, with the ranges occurring on the lower side of the channel and each move upwards is followed almost immediately by an even sharper move downwards further continuing the downward channel. I only mention it because as long as we remain in this pattern, I'd be hesitant to trade lower on the EU when it's already on the downside.
  • #2,025
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:15pm Apr 3, 2013 5:15pm
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/2168/m_2...xvja-261kb.jpg
  • #2,026
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:20pm Apr 3, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting smittens4212
Hello, Do you take longer term context into account or just go purely based off your rules? What I mean by that is that for the last month or so, we've been in a fairly consistent pattern of movement in the EU. It goes range > break upwards > sharp break downwards all the way through the bottom side of the previous range > new range > repeat. Sort of like a downward channel, with the ranges occurring on the lower side of the channel and each move upwards is followed almost immediately by an even sharper move downwards further continuing the downward...
Price can go anywhere. Without respect to the previous day price can go up, down, or sideways. I have shorted the top of three day runs with my rule of selling the previous day high if it is the first hit. I have bought similarly. I have also grudgingly sold or bought when I didn't think there was a chance in hell that the trade would succeed and watched the trade go on to hit my target or beyond. To tell you the truth I was pleading with the price to go down first because I really wanted to buy the low. I don't like trading into that support but I have seen it succeed enough to take the short against my strongest beliefs. I made a mistake last night. I set the stops and targets and went to sleep. I should have been awake to reverse. I would, without a doubt, have gone long after the test and successful retest of the Tue low. I screwed up, but not because I went short. I screwed up because I went to sleep with money on the line.
  • #2,027
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:26pm Apr 3, 2013 5:26pm
Seneca you have a good method. You dont need to explain anymore its all been said. I have altruistic impulses too but I limit that to friends and family. I just responded to your thread because I could recognise your experience. I myself have spent too much time working stuff out just to lay out there for anyone to take for free. At the end of the day its a zero sum game and if the queue of less able traders on the other side of your trade is smaller, then you only have yourself to blame. Lots of respect to you.
  • #2,028
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:45pm Apr 3, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting dutchstew
Seneca you have a good method. You dont need to explain anymore its all been said. I have altruistic impulses too but I limit that to friends and family. I just responded to your thread because I could recognise your experience. I myself have spent too much time working stuff out just to lay out there for anyone to take for free. At the end of the day its a zero sum game and if the queue of less able traders on the other side of your trade is smaller, then you only have yourself to blame. Lots of respect to you.
Well I need as many bad ones to line up as possible. I am not too good myself.
  • #2,029
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:11pm Apr 3, 2013 6:11pm
Sen

You have covered most everything related to your strategy multiple times. You have explained it so well that I think I have only needed to ask one question. Ironically, your posting less may be better for some traders, as it will encourage them to think for themselves.

You are real. Other than being thoughtful of others, that is the highest compliment that could be paid anyone on this venerable forum. As you lay down at night, you will have the satisfaction of knowing that you have changed a few people's lives, and in a good way. You have my v.

Bravo!
  • #2,030
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:17pm Apr 3, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting California
Sen You have covered most everything related to your strategy multiple times. You have explained it so well that I think I have only needed to ask one question. Ironically, your posting less may be better for some traders, as it will encourage them to think for themselves. You are real. Other than being thoughtful of others, that is the highest compliment that could be paid anyone on this venerable forum. As you lay down at night, you will have the satisfaction of knowing that you have changed a few people's lives, and in a good way. You have my...
Thank you California. I have enjoyed our discussions through PM and here on the thread. Stop by here and say hello once in a while.

Chris.
  • #2,031
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:27pm Apr 3, 2013 6:27pm
Here is the latest version of the EA. Changes include:

 

  1. Fixed logic for calculating daily, weekly and london close times.
  2. Uses Friday for previous day when necessary.
  3. Uses two full bars between trades in same direction.
  4. Added option to select ATR level to use.

I have also written an indicator for this method. Features include:

 

  1. Displays same levels as the EA.
  2. Displays average daily range, current spread and time til bar ends
  3. Displays ATR 15%, 20% and 25% values
  4. Profit, Stop and Entry lines on chart. When moved into place will show the RR level, stop size in pips, profit size in pips, lot size and margin requirement for 1% risk and lot size and margin requirement for 2% risk.
  5. Displays big and mid figures.

Hope someone finds these useful.

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip SenecaPilotEA-1.1.zip   51 KB | 357 downloads
File Type: zip SenecaPilot-Indicator.zip   40 KB | 453 downloads
  • #2,032
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:31pm Apr 3, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting lcoff
Here is the latest version of the EA. Changes include: Fixed logic for calculating daily, weekly and london close times. Uses Friday for previous day when necessary. Uses two full bars between trades in same direction. Added option to select ATR level to use. I have also written an indicator for this method. Features include: Displays same levels as the EA. Displays average daily range, current spread and time til bar ends Displays ATR 15%, 20% and 25% values Profit, Stop and Entry lines on chart. When moved into place will show the RR level,...
Very interesting. If this turns out to be profitable at a rate anywhere near the manual trading I will stand by my word and nominate you for the coding hall of fame. If it doesn't exist I will start the thread and name you the first inductee ahead of Steve Hopwood and Ronald Raygun.

In fact I have never used an EA before but I will throw this one on a demo account and let it go for a few weeks.
  • #2,033
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:50pm Apr 3, 2013 6:50pm
Last week I was using it on the EURUSD and GBPUSD. On looking at my results it turns out that it was not working so well on the GBP. My results since the week starting 3/25 until today using 1% risk are:

EURUSD: 13 Losses, 21 Wins, +17%
GBPUSD: 32 Losses, 17 Wins, -13%

One problem with the GBP is that I was using 15% ATR. For now I am just trading the EUR with it.

So far it works really well on the EUR, but could just be dumb luck.

Still optimistic though
  • #2,034
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:59pm Apr 3, 2013 6:59pm
Chris,

I'm quite new to your thread. Only wish I had found it sooner. I'm still only about half-way through reading everything. But you have a brilliant way of trading and you teach it well. And on top of it, I can tell that you are a very sincere and genuine person.

Again I just want to thank you for all of the time and effort you have put in here. It's much appreciated!

Ken
  • #2,035
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:25am Apr 4, 2013 12:25am
I am short UJ from last week's close. The ATR was almost doubled and it is a good level. BOJ pretty set on killing yen though. Might work out but I am ready to kill it quick. Never could trade this damn pair, not sure why I am in it now except the factors are in line for it to retrace.
  • #2,036
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:29am Apr 4, 2013 12:29am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I am short UJ from last week's close. The ATR was almost doubled and it is a good level. BOJ pretty set on killing yen though. Might work out but I am ready to kill it quick. Never could trade this damn pair, not sure why I am in it now except the factors are in line for it to retrace.
Me too. Could it be that the big move came from the earth quake that hit Japan?
  • #2,037
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:33am Apr 4, 2013 12:33am
Quoting Olarion1975
Me too. Could it be that the big move came from the earth quake that hit Japan?
No I think this move is about the BOJ entering into QE. I just think it's overdone and these things usually retrace some. I am probably making a mistake here but who knows?
  • #2,038
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:35am Apr 4, 2013 12:35am
Quoting Seneca pilot
No I think this move is about the BOJ entering into QE. I just think it's overdone and these things usually retrace some. I am probably making a mistake here but who knows?
I actually got long EJ per the news rules but set my stop to BE too quickly and got knocked out with a tiny gain. This is the third entry short on UJ others knocked out with tiny profits. Just trying to feel out an entry that sticks.
  • #2,039
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:41am Apr 4, 2013 12:41am
Out -.7

Oh well something to do while the other pairs float around in no mans land.
  • #2,040
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:46am Apr 4, 2013 12:46am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I actually got long EJ per the news rules but set my stop to BE too quickly and got knocked out with a tiny gain. This is the third entry short on UJ others knocked out with tiny profits. Just trying to feel out an entry that sticks.
Really sucks my news long was up to about twenty pips positive and I moved the stop then just got nipped. I wouldn't do that with a normal trade but with the news stuff you have to move fast and protect. Just moved a little too fast tonite. I am not very good with patience.
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