Testing of new method

I am just testing my new method that I cannot put into the code and run backtesting. Therefore I am going to forward test with writing.

No money management at this stage - because don't even know whether it would be profitable at all. Not even demo trade at all.

Don't follow any of my posting please.

Trade with Eur/Usd:
Short 1.2810
Stop 1.2866
Target: no target, only stop loss, will move stop loss everyday.

If price stay up 1.2866 for 2 hours, then go long with same stop(1.2866).

How do you determine your entry? Did it look promising from manual backtesting?

Hello,

It is not a fully developed system yet. Just in case it will mislead anyone, I am not going to describe the whole system yet. I will however share the system if it is proven to be profitable.

About manual backtesting.....I actually lost my 5min data since I had broken hard drive and unable to do the proper backtesting. It "looks" good by daily chart but need to have proper data to do the testing. That's why I am just forward testing it.

The framework of the system is to determine the "turning point" daily - and then if the price is below the point for 2 hours, then sell (or have the sell order already on hand) and if it is higher than that point for 2 hours then buy. The exit point is the turning point and when the price touches it.
That's why I need 5min data to find the entry point.

Thanks for your interest. Please don't follow it - I am not even use demo account on this yet. Because I don't know the max it can lose in a trade, I cannot determine the lot size to use.

Trade 1
Presumably stop taken out at 1.2866
-56PIPs

Trade 2
Long 1.2925
Stop original at 1.2866 move up to 1.2884

Turning point at 1.2961.
Trade 2 close at 1.2900
-25PIPs

Trade 3
Short 1.2900
Stop 1.2961

Keep up the testing and I hope it goes well for you. It's always discouraging to hit a couple of losses early in your testing. I have found it VERY discouraging in the past when I test and find several bad results early on.
I hope you have some idea of the money management you will use. Even when I start testing a new idea I always think about money management.

Cheers,
Linc.

Thank you for your support Linc. With last 2 trades, I am thinking of maybe 0.7-1 mini lot for every 1000 dollar equity for this strategy. However have to wait and see if it is pofitable for the next few trades.

Review of trade 2: because spot forex are running 24 hours, the next day's "turning point" at 1.2962 can actually be calculated at that time of decline and can actually exit with profit during that time.

Trade 3: stop moved to 1.2955

Trade 3: stop moved to 1.2886

As review of trade 2 - I will trial 2 methods for trade 3
1. original method - wait for market to close for the day and determine next day's turning point and adjust stop loss accordingly
2. Pre-calculate next day's turning point and then take profit first (+- re-enter position near the original stoploss point)

Trade 3 method 2:
stop loss moved to 1.2839 (for 61PIPs profit)

Trade 3 method 1: Stop moved to 1.2820
Trade 3 method 2: Stop moved to 1.2804

By the way, something not related to my system, Euro looks like a head, shoulder pattern on weekly chart and making the right shoulder.

Trade 3 Method 1: Stop moved to 1.2744
Trade 3 Method 2: Stop moved to 1.2687

Trade 3 Method 2: stop moved to 1.2669

Trade 3 Method 1: Stop moved to 1.2669
Trade 3 Method 2: Stop moved to 1.2654

Trade 3 Method 2: Stop moved to 1.2625

Although Trade 3 seems to be good, I already found some flaw in the system when I do manual backtesting on 5 min chart...(the system is good for selling but not for buying)
therefore will rethink the system through....and stop testing on this stage..
will restart when I find the solution....

Trade 3 Method 1: Stop moved to 1.2635
Trade 3 Method 2: Stop moved to 1.2614

No trade for buy at this stage....
and will try to figure it out and retest again

Trade 3 Method 1 stopped at 1.2635 +265PIPs
Trade 3 Method 2 Stopped at 1.2614 +286PIPs

Trial of thought for buying order before sell order stopped:
Trade 4: Buy 1.2580 stopped out at 1.2547 -33PIPs
As I thought it can solve the problem of buying orders, it got swiped out by the news. Therefore will need to trial the buy order again for the next round.

Hence wait for signal of Trade 5:
will sell if it stays below 1.2619 for more than 2 hours and stop at 1.2619

Wrong calculation :
Should be 1.2632

Trade 5: Short 1.2604 Stop at 1.2632

Trade 5:-28PIPS

Trade 6: Buy 1.2625 Stop 1.2558
Trade 7: Sell 1.2643 Stop 1.2654

Basic framework has been changed after review (plus manual backtesting)
Hopefully, there will be no more change from trade 6 onwards.

PS. It is very interesting to see the trades over last few days when it runs up and down around my "paper trade" stoploss level......If that's the real trade, then one would start to think about the "stop hunting" theory - it may be true that many people are using very similar calculation and place the "stop" over that area but it also may be true that those numbers are the true support and resistance level....

Trade 6: stop moved to 1.2600
Trade 7: -11PIPs
Trade 1-5: 156PIPs - BUT the system has changed so PIPs will be recount from trade 6.