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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,001
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:32am Apr 3, 2013 11:32am
Quoting kk007
That one is 3 minutes after news, and movement seemed still due to news outcome. I am not sure if you would take it even when awaken.
I would have taken it. It was classic stop out and retest. The fast moving train is often the best trade. Unfortunately I woke up about ten minutes too late.
  • #2,002
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:53am Apr 3, 2013 11:53am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I will go farther out on a limb and say that I believe that it went higher because of the order flow around the Tuesday low. I only wish I had been awake to see it happening because I would have reversed. It is NFP week and the price likely won't move too far in any direction before Friday.
I don't want to get away too much from what you do SP, because like I said previously it seems we view the market similarly, but I look for "stacks". There is a large stack in the area where it turned. I count 4 there now, I believe 3 were present when your trade was validated. 2 of the 3 were potentially more important than the other. In addition to the 3-4 there is another placed within 15 pips to add more order support. This is not my attempt to invalidate the entry to the south either, but only to expand further on my previous statement to stevie and SP's . The areas of orders that create my "stack" have all been discussed in this thread, so I will not go into those either.
  • #2,003
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:00pm Apr 3, 2013 12:00pm
Seneca how do you monitor orderflow in the spot currencies? As far as I know you can only see real time order flow in the futures where all orders go through 1 exchange. I would be interested also in your analysis of option levels, how do you know where they are and in what amount?
  • #2,004
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:14pm Apr 3, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting dutchstew
Seneca how do you monitor orderflow in the spot currencies? As far as I know you can only see real time order flow in the futures where all orders go through 1 exchange. I would be interested also in your analysis of option levels, how do you know where they are and in what amount?
You can't monitor it in a specific sense as the currency market is not centralized. What I do know from reading and experience is that there were sellers at those lows yesterday. They were in drawdown and would want to get even. Also there are many people like me who buy lows, it is an old strategy. Large amounts of buy orders always stack up around important lows. Daily low is important enough to have a big stack. The question, and the deciding factor is whether the liquidity takers in the form of market order sellers can overcome the liquidity providers in the form of limit buys and the liquidity takers in the form of market buyers at the level. It usually takes a pretty important news event or sentiment trend to overcome the orders stacked at the lows and highs.
  • #2,005
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:26pm Apr 3, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
You can't monitor it in a specific sense as the currency market is not centralized. What I do know from reading and experience is that there were sellers at those lows yesterday. They were in drawdown and would want to get even. Also there are many people like me who buy lows, it is an old strategy. Large amounts of buy orders always stack up around important lows. Daily low is important enough to have a big stack. The question, and the deciding factor is whether the liquidity takers in the form of market order sellers can overcome the liquidity...
True. I like the discussion.
But in the end it doesn't matter why the price moves in a certain direction, just be on the right side or reverse the position if you are not.
Just put the odds in your favor (e.g. fade the important levels), take low risk and manage your money/trade well.
Sounds simple...it really is - but not easy to follow consistently due to psychological effects (fear, greed, revenge trading etc.).
  • #2,006
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:35pm Apr 3, 2013 12:35pm
Can I just check that I've got this right, thanks.

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  • #2,007
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:35pm Apr 3, 2013 12:35pm
I understand but it would be nice to see when that stack is being added to or being diminished, I suppose you can infer whats going on with price action and time. Any info on option levels?
  • #2,008
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:38pm Apr 3, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting Olarion1975
True. I like the discussion. But in the end it doesn't matter why the price moves in a certain direction, just be on the right side or reverse the position if you are not. Just put the odds in your favor (e.g. fade the important levels), take low risk and manage your money/trade well. Sounds simple...it really is - but not easy to follow consistently due to psychological effects (fear, greed, revenge trading etc.).
Don't forget screwed up sleep patterns. I am not afraid to reverse I just can't seem to stay awake to do it.
  • #2,009
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:43pm Apr 3, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Don't forget screwed up sleep patterns. I am not afraid to reverse I just can't seem to stay awake to do it.
Oh yes, I believe that makes you want to tear your hair out.
So there are only 2 solutions:
1. use uppers or
2. change your time zone.

Luckily I can trade the whole European and US session if I like during my wake phase.
  • #2,010
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:46pm Apr 3, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting FX Alex
Can I just check that I've got this right, thanks. {image}
Pretty much right except that the previous day low was 27945. It is the lowest low before the start of the new day three hours before London open. Happens to be Midnight here in the US. 05:00 in the UK.
  • #2,011
  • Apr 3, 2013 1:08pm Apr 3, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Pretty much right except that the previous day low was 27945. It is the lowest low before the start of the new day three hours before London open. Happens to be Midnight here in the US. 05:00 in the UK.
Thanks got it now.

Looking at AUDUSD today and the way it has been using these simple levels. I actually shorted this up there and then closed it by error.
(yeah I've got a lot to learn or I could just blame my kids )

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  • #2,012
  • Apr 3, 2013 1:54pm Apr 3, 2013 1:54pm
Hello Traders

I have been reading this Ramblings thing some days. Didnīt read all of the thread. But i can predict the Future.

What happen to BRV? does he post on FF?
And about Peter Crow, does he post on FF?

Well for some reasons soon or later good traders stop posting on FF. The same will happen with SP. For ower .
Why this happens? At some point someone will make it happen for several reasons.

This is great material in here. And i hope SP stays here for long time. And also if at some point in the Future SP you stop posting or create a private forum or group. I would like to be part of it.

It has been a wile since i have made a post on FF. Hope everyone can benefict from SP work.

I have atach some indicators that can help to make it more visual on MT4 hope it helps anyone studing SP teachings.

All the best

Alfredo
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #LargeTimeFrame.mq4   4 KB | 340 downloads
File Type: mq4 SDX-TzPivots.mq4   23 KB | 284 downloads
File Type: mq4 #M-Candles.mq4   6 KB | 309 downloads
File Type: mq4 HL_Objects.mq4   10 KB | 366 downloads
  • #2,013
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:44pm Apr 3, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting Alfredo
Hello Traders I have been reading this Ramblings thing some days. Didnīt read all of the thread. But i can predict the Future. What happen to BRV? does he post on FF? And about Peter Crow, does he post on FF? Well for some reasons soon or later good traders stop posting on FF. The same will happen with SP. For ower . Why this happens? At some point someone will make it happen for several reasons. This is great material in here. And i hope SP stays here for long time. And also if at some point in the Future SP you stop posting or create a...
Well BRV is a money manager and I have seen him do one live seminar. There was some accusations that Peter Crowns and TRT were the same person. I don't know about that but I do know that TRT (Joel Rensink) has had papers published in Futures Magazine and SRO and he is the real deal. I am in a place in my life right now where I have a little more time during the day than I likely will in the near future. I slept all day before my kids were born. I was able to be up trading through the night. We absolutely did not want to have our kids in the care of a nanny or in a day care for their first year. They are ten months old today so likely in the next two to four months we will hire a nanny and I will resume sleeping during the day. I will not post here as much when that happens.

I can tell you that if I am successful in getting a decent amount of funds to manage later I will likely not post here at all just as the others don't. The demands on your time are simply too great and the outside distractions have to stop. Also overall I think that the impact on me from starting this thread has probably, sadly, been a little bit negative. I now feel like I live in a glass house and feel that I have to explain every little 2% loss like today. I won two trades yesterday and made 2.3%. I lost on four trades today and lost about the same. I feel awful that I am even for the week and I wouldn't have had this feeling four months ago, it would just have been another day at the office.

My trading performance has degraded since my kids were born. I expected that because of the loss of sleep and screwed up schedule that I have been on. Adding in the maintenance of this thread has been an unnecessary and time intense responsibility. I will probably just go back into my little cave where I just lurk and post here and there when I see something I just can't be quiet about. I have made some good friends here. I speak with Lee Goldberg almost every day through e-mail and I enjoy the conversations with Olarian and others here every day. If I do continue to post it will likely be to keep up with these friends (I know I didn't mention everyone sorry if I left you out).

The good threads always die out. The good traders generally move on after they have perfected their method and taught it to the few who will spend the effort to learn. It is the way of the forum. You learn, give a little back, and then move on. Truthfully I am surprised that I made it this long. I was a member here for several years and had well below 100 posts when I started this thread. I am now nearing a thousand posts. I am generally a very quiet and private person, if someone had told me five months ago I would allow myself to be out in the open like this I would have laughed. I don't want to teach or have a live room or website because I really don't like to interact with people that much. I am kind to a fault and generally give too much of myself so I have just kept to myself in the past. I am the type who would lose money with a website because I would feel terrible charging. This is why I go the route of trying to manage money. You have a short lifespan in this business. Trading is mentally tough and very hard on the body due to the stresses. I want to get some clients and make a good return for a few years and have enough to retire comfortably. I can't see myself trading much past 50 or 55. It is a younger person's game.

Well it's not good bye but it's getting damn close. I have taught what I am willing to share in this thread. It's all out there. There is enough information in this thread to learn a method of trading that will sustain you with profits. You will not blow an account if you follow the rules in this thread. Honestly it has become a social gathering place for me to speak with friends each day. I am not a social person so the anonymity of the forum combined with the pleasant social nature of our conversations here have been a nice change of pace for me. For that I am grateful to all of you.

Chris
  • #2,014
  • Apr 3, 2013 3:32pm Apr 3, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Well BRV is a money manager and I have seen him do one live seminar. There was some accusations that Peter Crowns and TRT were the same person. I don't know about that but I do know that TRT (Joel Rensink) has had papers published in Futures Magazine and SRO and he is the real deal. I am in a place in my life right now where I have a little more time during the day than I likely will in the near future. I slept all day before my kids were born. I was able to be up trading through the night. We absolutely did not want to have our kids in the care...
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,015
  • Apr 3, 2013 3:38pm Apr 3, 2013 3:38pm
That's cool Chris, I've learnt loads, thanks very much for taking the time it's been a pleasure to read what you've had to say.

With your permission, and if anybody is interested, I have the first 20 pages in a PDF that I'm more than happy to post.
  • #2,016
  • Apr 3, 2013 3:56pm Apr 3, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting FX Alex
That's cool Chris, I've learnt loads, thanks very much for taking the time it's been a pleasure to read what you've had to say. With your permission, and if anybody is interested, I have the first 20 pages in a PDF that I'm more than happy to post.
Feel free to post it. I will be around but more in the vein of a social gathering than anything else. I am sure that Olarian and I will at least be here daily seeing that neither of us forget to enter into the ORB trade. That thing has statistical legs and can really grow an account over the long haul.
  • #2,017
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:00pm Apr 3, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Well BRV is a money manager and I have seen him do one live seminar. There was some accusations that Peter Crowns and TRT were the same person. I don't know about that but I do know that TRT (Joel Rensink) has had papers published in Futures Magazine and SRO and he is the real deal. I am in a place in my life right now where I have a little more time during the day than I likely will in the near future. I slept all day before my kids were born. I was able to be up trading through the night. We absolutely did not want to have our kids in the care...
Well-written by a nice and helpful guy who knows how to teach and trade!

Thank you Chris for all the valuable information you've given so far.
I'd like to stay in contact and will contribute to the thread (as time allows) as well as help other traders who need some help.

Have a nice evening.
Olarion
  • #2,018
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:07pm Apr 3, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Well-written by a nice and helpful guy who knows how to teach and trade! Thank you Chris for all the valuable information you've given so far. I'd like to stay in contact and will contribute to the thread (as time allows) as well as help other traders who need some help. Have a nice evening. Olarion
I'll pop in to say hello.
  • #2,019
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:19pm Apr 3, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I now feel like I live in a glass house and feel that I have to explain every little 2% loss like today.
That's understandable but you should not put yourself under that pressure, no one here with any experience of the markets expects a 100% winning methodology and you've explained a few times that you have a 60%hit rate. Loosing days are a fact of life for any trader, elite or otherwise. Why should you be any different?

You've done an excellent job here Chris and this thread has been blessed more than most of the time with relevant on-topic posters. I'd attribute that to your generous teaching style which has attracted the inquisitive and those willing to learn. You see fault in being too generous with yourself and I can totally relate on a personal level to the sometimes devastating let downs that can entail but on the other hand this is largely what has made the thread what it is. If you need to get a bit of balance back in your trading day - and that's understandable you are putting a huge amount of work in here - please please stop posting or reduce to one brief visit a day. You will only resent the thread for it's distractions if you don't and that's not going to help anyone. As you said it's all here and I'm sure any newbies can be redirected to page one. Anyway there is the risk that the longer the thread gets the less likely newcomers will read from page 1 and then this just becomes posts simply repeating what's already gone before. Here's something from me, a big fan, take it easy dude.
  • #2,020
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:27pm Apr 3, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting stevexyg
That's understandable but you should not put yourself under that pressure, no one here with any experience of the markets expects a 100% winning methodology and you've explained a few times that you have a 60%hit rate. Loosing days are a fact of life for any trader, elite or otherwise. Why should you be any different? You've done an excellent job here Chris and this thread has been blessed more than most of the time with relevant on-topic posters. I'd attribute that to your generous teaching style which has attracted the inquisitive and those...
Thank you Steve, you are one of my favorites.
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