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All Majors and Gold

  • #3,661
  • Apr 2, 2013 12:32pm Apr 2, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting mark_it
Closed the shorts from 1579/78 for a further 300 pips - this wave is over in my opinion. I'm looking at a retracement to between 1588 and possibly as high as 1596 before any of the above two bear targets are hit. Enough drama for today, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
the drama has ended...tomorrow will be interesting........i hope it retraces back to 88..and it should do this before the americans come!..otherwise it looks so bearish that nfp might hit your bear targets straight away
  • #3,662
  • Apr 2, 2013 2:13pm Apr 2, 2013 2:13pm
Hi All,
After several months with an MT4 micro account, earning and loosing like any new jockey on the XAUUSD pair, last week I moved up to a classic MT4 account with a deposit of around 3000 EURO. When gold started dropping today, I was sure it will rise and I kept buying and buying without setting a stop loose until after it was too late, everything happened so fast. I lost everything and was shocked by how stupid i am. This is my first big lost, actually my biggest lost.

Yes, I was so enthusiastic that I broke the rules, bought too much without thinking for5 a second that I might be wrong. I was absolutely sure that it is going to rise up again.

In order to circumvent such events from happening in the future, I am interested in discovering whether there was any indicator someone used that could have helped me foresee the catastrophe (see attached).

Any input is highly appreciated,

S.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd_02_04_2013.png Size: 31 KB
  • #3,663
  • Apr 2, 2013 2:50pm Apr 2, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting shlomok
Hi All, After several months with an MT4 micro account, earning and loosing like any new jockey on the XAUUSD pair, last week I moved up to a classic MT4 account with a deposit of around 3000 EURO. When gold started dropping today, I was sure it will rise and I kept buying and buying without setting a stop loose until after it was too late, everything happened so fast. I lost everything and was shocked by how stupid i am. This is my first big lost, actually my biggest lost. Yes, I was so enthusiastic that I broke the rules, bought too much without...
sorry to hear your lost....

first rule
-know why you are taking a trade

second rule
-know your exit strategy for profit and loss

third rule
-know how much you are willing to loss on this trade

fourth rule
- only trade 3% max of your account

fifth rule
- trading gold can hurt if you do not follow those first 4 rules

hope that helps......

study candlestick formation, trendlines, channels, fibonocci, moving average, stochastic and price action

open on top of thread the attachment icon----in there are my two indicators i use all the time......somewhere in the first few pages of the thread are instruction on how to use them.....

hope that helps....thanks

G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,664
  • Apr 2, 2013 3:03pm Apr 2, 2013 3:03pm
Wednesday, March 27, 2013


Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left? Part II



By: Eric Sprott & Shree Kargutkar

The past few months have been difficult for the gold investor as selling pressure in the gold futures market has set a decidedly negative direction for the price of the yellow metal. As fundamental investors, we always pay special attention to the supply and demand dynamics of gold and, recently, we have found it very difficult to reconcile lower prices with continued strong demand for physical gold.

While the supply of gold has remained largely static, we have seen a steady increase in demand for the yellow metal. India and China have emerged as strong buyers, consuming over half of the mine supply in recent years. Central banks have switched from being sellers of gold to being net buyers, with their gold purchases in 2012 increasing by 17% to almost 535 tonnes. Exchange traded products (ETPs) around the world have continued to add to their gold hoards, as have institutions and private investors. Furthermore, central banks, such as South Korea and Russia, have added to their bullion reserves early in 2013, which points to sustained strength in demand. These facts are important because, over the past decade, the annual supply of gold has stayed flat at approximately 4,000 tonnes.

Much ado has been made about the recent sell-off in the yellow metal forcing certain ETPs to liquidate, adding a supply of gold into the market in the process. Our work reveals that the previous ETP sell-offs, (which occurred in January 2011, December 2011, May 2012 and July 2012) have all coincided with gold finding strong price support and rallying higher.

In our September 2012 MAAG, titled, “Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left???”, we reconciled the annual change in demand for gold between 2000 and 2012 to be almost 2,300 tonnes. We went on to hypothesize that given the massive change in demand, the only suppliers large enough to fill the gap between supply and demand were the Central Banks. Now, our long search for the “smoking gun” to prove our hypothesis appears to have finally materialized.

Every month, the US Census Bureau releases the FT900 document, which outlines US International Trade Data. Going through this document, we were intrigued to see that in December 2012 the US exported over $4B worth of gold and imported around $1.5B worth of gold, representing a net export of $2.5B or almost 50 tonnes1. This surprising number led us to look at the previous releases of US International Trade Data which go as far back as 1991 – what we found was truly shocking. Not only has the US been consistently exporting large quantities of gold on a net basis, the amount of gold the US has been exporting is above and beyond what the US should be capable of exporting.

The gold market is fairly simple to understand from a supply and demand perspective. Since you cannot fabricate gold out of thin air, supply comes from new mine production, scrap gold recycling and investor disposition of bullion. Demand comes from many sources including investment demand, electronics, dental and industrial uses to name a few. There can be short-term aberrations between supply and demand where the market can be oversupplied, or demand can outstrip supply, however, over a longer period, supply should equal demand with the price acting as the equalizer. Under this assumption, the amount of gold that the US is exporting should equate to the amount of gold that the US is not consuming over a long enough time frame.

Table 1 lays out our framework for analyzing the US gold supply and demand.


Table 1
http://sprott.com/media/235471/maag-3-2013-table-1.gif


For our analysis of supply and demand, we have very robust statistics as far as mine production, import-export data, coin sales and ETP demand from GFMS2, the US Census Bureau3, the US Mint4 and Bloomberg5, respectively. We have good data on gold recycling, jewelry sales and gold use in electronics and industrial applications from the CPM Group6.

Table 2 lays out our analysis for 2012 using the supply and demand framework.


Table 2
http://sprott.com/media/235476/maag-3-2013-table-2.gif


We used this framework to analyze supply and demand in the US going all the way back to 1991, which is as far back as the FT900 documents go. Over the span of 22 years, the total amount of gold that the US has exported – above and beyond its supply capability – is almost 4,500 tonnes! A truly stunning figure. (See Table 3).



TABLE 3: US GOLD MARKET, CUMULATIVE SUPPLY DEMAND 1991-2012 (IN TONNES)

http://sprott.com/media/235486/maag-3-2013-table-3.gif

http://sprott.com/media/235481/maag-...-table-3-2.gif

Admittedly there is an unknown in our analysis, that being gold bullion acquisition and disposition by private investors. However, strong demand in ETPs such as GLD and PHYS and demand for gold coins provide strong evidence that the private investor has been a net buyer over the years. The inclusion of the private investor on the demand side would in fact skew the ‘gap’ of 4,500 tonnes higher to a figure that would lie somewhere between 4,500 tonnes and 11,200 tonnes, which represents the gross exports out of the US. The only US seller that would be capable of supplying such an astonishing amount of gold is the US Government, with a reported gold holding of 8,300 tonnes. The US Government gold holdings have not been audited or verified in more than four decades. The US trade data defines the export of nonmonetary gold as a sale of gold from a private seller within the US to an official agency. In September 2012, we espoused that the Western Central Banks have been surreptitiously selling/ leasing their gold through private channels in an effort to increase the available supply and in turn suppress prices. This new analysis using official US agency numbers seems to provide the strongest validation of our hypothesis to date. It is worth noting that our data only covers two decades and that the export ‘gap’ could in fact be significantly larger if earlier numbers were included or the real private investor demand for gold was known.

We are currently in an environment where policy makers are intent on devaluing their currencies in an effort to create growth. Real rates continue to stay negative in most of the developed world. Every marginal dollar of debt that is created is producing lower and lower amounts of growth. In a world overwhelmed by mountains of debt and economic growth which is sub-par at best, precious metals and real assets can act as insurance against the stupidity of policy makers. The evidence pointing towards the suppression of the gold price is becoming increasingly apparent. Don’t be the last person to figure this out! The current sell-off in gold should be viewed not with extreme trepidation but as an unbelievable opportunity to buy the metal at an artificially low value.

- Source, Sprott Asset Management:
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,665
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:09pm Apr 2, 2013 7:09pm
Gold is prepare welcome 1550 area
  • #3,666
  • Apr 2, 2013 10:57pm Apr 2, 2013 10:57pm
Gnomoneey, thank you very much for your reply and the various tips you provided. In addition to the mistakes I noted, one of the biggest mistakes was solely focusing on 1 minute intervals and tick charts, without looking at the "big picture"
So, I experienced margin call, only weeks after watching the movie baring the same name.

I couldn't find your indicators, maybe I am overlooking something, can you please elaborate?
  • #3,667
  • Apr 2, 2013 11:58pm Apr 2, 2013 11:58pm
wow this is like an express train heading to deep south...now im interested to know what has changed.
  • #3,668
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:35am Apr 3, 2013 12:35am
Looks like the Asian bears wanted a piece of the action too.

Gold bounced off 1563.14, I think this has to be the low but we may retest before heading upwards.
  • #3,669
  • Apr 3, 2013 1:45am Apr 3, 2013 1:45am
Quoting shlomok
Gnomoneey ("http://www.forexfactory.com/gnomoneey"), thank you very much for your reply and the various tips you provided. In addition to the mistakes I noted, one of the biggest mistakes was solely focusing on 1 minute intervals and tick charts, without looking at the "big picture" So, I experienced margin call, only weeks after watching the movie baring the same name. I couldn't find your indicators, maybe I am overlooking something, can you please elaborate?
page 7 post 99
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,670
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:09am Apr 3, 2013 2:09am
gold

potential retrace max 1575
then a sell should happen
d1 stochastics still not oversold- potential to drop some more
h4 stochastics is rising from oversold territory

-for today i would sell the peaks and current price is good area or maybe up to 1575
-don't expect massive movements like yesterday imo, it needs to consolidate
-yesterday's move was first day of the month trading for gold from uk banks
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,671
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:15am Apr 3, 2013 2:15am
news are coming out with more good news economy is getting better therefore gold should drop


IMF Reaches EUR1bn Agreement with Cyprus - Statement
From @djfxtrader| 2 min ago

<li id="thread418812" class="story medium"> Euro area annual inflation down to 1.7%
From europa.eu| 8 min ago
<li id="thread418805" class="story low"> UK construction shrinks for third month running in March - PMI
From reuters.com| 27 min ago
<li id="thread418804" class="story low"> UK Housing Equity Withdrawal (HEW) - 2012 Q4
From bankofengland.co.uk| 28 min ago
<li id="thread418802" class="story medium"> Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey
From bankofengland.co.uk| 31 min ago
<li id="thread418799" class="story high"> Slower decline in UK construction output recorded in March
From markiteconomics.com| 37 min ago| 11 comments
<li id="thread418761" class="story none"> Asia Soaring Wages Mean Rising Prices Worldwide
From bloomberg.com| 1 hr 14 min ago
<li id="thread418787" class="story medium"><li id="thread418774" class="story none"> US Apartment vacancy rate falls to lowest level since 2001
From reuters.com| 1 hr 57 min ago
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,672
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:27am Apr 3, 2013 2:27am
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...ls_Silver.html

Russia & China Loot Western Gold While JP Morgan Sells Silver

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...s%20Silver.jpg
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...s%20Silver.jpg



Today Jim Sinclair told King World News that Russia and China are looting Western gold while JP Morgan sells silver. He also said that all of this chaos is taking place as central planners conceal...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,673
  • Apr 3, 2013 3:19am Apr 3, 2013 3:19am
Quoting gnomoneey
news are coming out with more good news economy is getting better therefore gold should drop IMF Reaches EUR1bn Agreement with Cyprus - Statement ("http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=418818") From @djfxtrader ("http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=hit&id=418818")| 2 min ago <li id="thread418812" class="story medium"> Euro area annual inflation down to 1.7% ("http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=418812") From europa.eu ("http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=hit&id=418812")| 8 min ago <li id="thread418805"...
these news dont sound too negative for gold....quite the opposite, no? German and French 10 year yields are near all time lows (which is ok for Germany but FRANCE??) which is usually an indication of stress.... I duno, but the whole system looks disjoined to me at the moment.
  • #3,674
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:51am Apr 3, 2013 4:51am
I'm staying on the sidelines for now.

An alternative pattern indicates that gold could also plummet seriously from here.

Even some very experienced market analysts are unsure of Gold's direction.

Sometimes waiting it out until the picture is clearer is the best risk management.
  • #3,675
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:54am Apr 3, 2013 4:54am
cmon gold daddy wants 1575
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,676
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:09am Apr 3, 2013 5:09am
Quoting gnomoneey
cmon gold daddy wants 1575
shiat missed it...didnt get that high...1567 support
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,677
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:18am Apr 3, 2013 5:18am
Quoting gnomoneey
shiat missed it...didnt get that high...1567 support
caught it...woooohoooooo
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,678
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:23am Apr 3, 2013 5:23am
even ADP number doesnt bother you?
  • #3,679
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:26am Apr 3, 2013 5:26am
Quoting lexazver
even ADP number doesnt bother you?
adp says 158k jobs increased....not negative numbers ...jobs are bad for gold, usa economy slowly getting better
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,680
  • Apr 3, 2013 5:31am Apr 3, 2013 5:31am
Quoting gnomoneey
adp says 158k jobs increased....not negative numbers ...jobs are bad for gold, usa economy slowly getting better

u r rgiht good number but previous was 237k it is now 158k that means nearly 100k fall in new jobs so if this data will be close to nfp on friday we can see a fall in nfp aswell so more QE and that generally means more money print and buy stocks and gold,
90k jobs falls isnt really good according to me.
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