Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder | Page 16 | Forex Factory

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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #301
  • Apr 2, 2013 2:29pm Apr 2, 2013 2:29pm
Here's what mine look like


Btw i also attach an indicator that gives me alert when Williams is in overbought. This is very handy as it allows me to do other things until it's time to enter trades. Hope it helps you guys too
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-04-02_1527.png Size: 43 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 WPR.ex4   4 KB | 329 downloads
File Type: mq4 WPR.mq4   4 KB | 430 downloads
  • #302
  • Apr 2, 2013 8:34pm Apr 2, 2013 8:34pm
One of my GBP/AUD BUY trades hit the SL target today for a loss of 155 pips.

Accumulated Pips from March 18 - April 2: 1,516
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Closed_Positions_(3-18_through_4-2).png Size: 68 KB
  • #303
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:15pm Apr 2, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Going long on EUR/USD today has nothing to do with the Third Screen Strategy which is explained throughout this thread so please make sure to clarify WHY you entered this position so as to not create confusion for the traders utilizing this strategy. Thanks! As for scaling in positions. I ALWAYS set a 160 SL and 280 TP for each position regardless of which one was opened first. This is why, for example, if you plan on trading 2 lots per trade it is best to split the trade up into 4 .50 lot positions or 2 separate 1 lot positions. This will allow...


what i meant is say you had 4 positions opened. would your stop loss for each one be 160 ? or must the TOTAL stop loss for ALL 4 positions add up to 160 ?
  • #304
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:19pm Apr 2, 2013 9:19pm
Quoting whatfx
what i meant is say you had 4 positions opened. would your stop loss for each one be 160 ? or must the TOTAL stop loss for ALL 4 positions add up to 160 ?
Each position has a SL of 160
  • #305
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:24pm Apr 2, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting irampagemc
Here's what mine look like Btw i also attach an indicator that gives me alert when Williams is in overbought. This is very handy as it allows me to do other things until it's time to enter trades. Hope it helps you guys too {image} {file} {file}
Nice work Irampagemc!

Also, thanks for sharing your alert indicator with everybody here.
  • #306
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:32pm Apr 2, 2013 9:32pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Opened up 2 more USD/JPY SELL positions. Current Open Positions {image}

not all of us can open as many positions as you are. i usually limit myself to a maximum of just 4 pairs. so my results will be as no where near as yours. and god forbid if those 4 pairs were to lose, no other pairs will be there to compensate those losses, unlike what you do.


anyway well done......
  • #307
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:39pm Apr 2, 2013 9:39pm
Quoting whatfx
not all of us can open as many positions as you are. i usually limit myself to a maximum of just 4 pairs. so my results will be as no where near as yours. and god forbid if those 4 pairs were to lose, no other pairs will be there to compensate those losses, unlike what you do. anyway well done......
Simple solution to this is to adjust your lot sizes.

If you trade 1 standard lot right now and you prefer to open up one position per pair then here is the alternative: Open up 4 separate .2 positions. Or open up 3 .3 positions. Or open up 2 .5 positions.

Problem solved!

**It is better to open up multiple positions with this particular strategy due to the fact that we trade off of the daily time frame and there is always the chance that price could move against us. Instead of getting fearful we can look at this as an opportunity to open up another position to give us a better average entry price.

Also, let's say you have 2 positions opened up, a few days later you are about 100 - 150 pips in profit for each pair and experience a retrace on the H1 time frame to where it shows "over bought" or "over sold" You can now open up 2 more positions to keep your position trending as price moves in your favor. This is how we maximize our profits with this system.
  • #308
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:40pm Apr 2, 2013 9:40pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
One of my GBP/AUD BUY trades hit the SL target today for a loss of 155 pips. Accumulated Pips from March 18 - April 2: 1,516 {image}
Hi 100PipsADay

My GBPAUD BUY thade also hit the SL target.It seems the trend for GBP is still bearish.So i will wait " over bought"on the H1 chart and get a short position on GBPJPY.Let's see the Weekly and Daily chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.jpg Size: 172 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #309
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:46pm Apr 2, 2013 9:46pm
Quoting Fishcoo
Hi 100PipsADay My GBPAUD BUY thade also hit the SL target.It seems the trend for GBP is still bearish.So i will wait " over bought"on the H1 chart and get a short position on GBPJPY.Let's see the Weekly and Daily chart. {image} {image}
Hey Fishcoo,

You are right, the GBP/AUD trade was definitely "counter trend" so it was a little more risky.

I like the GBP/JPY short position at this time. Here are 2 posts I made in the GBP/JPY thread about an hour ago or so.


GBP/JPY
20 EMA is about to cross over the 50 EMA on the Daily chart. Last time this happened was May 15, 2012 and price dropped 1,000 pips (from 128 down to 118) in almost exactly 2 weeks time.

After which the 20 EMA did not cross back over the 50 EMA to the upside until August 20, 2012 (3 months later) at which time price was around 123.

Obviously tomorrow could change things for the JPY cross pairs but for the time being I am definitely bearish on GBP/JPY as well as EUR/JPY. I am actually thinking that most of what we can expect tomorrow has already been priced in during the past 5-6 month bull run so there is a bigger risk that markets will be disappointed for one reason or another.

Also, take a look at historical open position ratios at Oanda. More and more retailers are going LONG on USD/JPY as well as other JPY cross pairs. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions

I doubt the Big Boys are going to hand out free lunches tomorrow. Who knows though, this is the FOREX market and anything is possible...

**Bulls Beware**
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_D1_-_20_and_50_EMA_(4-2).png Size: 125 KB
  • #310
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:47pm Apr 2, 2013 9:47pm
GBP/JPY (continued)

Current Target for GBP/JPY: 132.75

If markets are disappointed tomorrow (which I expect they will be) then I see us moving back down to 132.75 which helps us to form a new "higher low" from a weekly perspective.

Resistance turned Support

Interestingly enough the last time the 20 EMA crossed over the 50 EMA to the downside (which was on May 15, 2012) price moved down almost exactly 1,000 pips in 2 weeks time. 1,000 pip drop this time would take us right to my weekly support @ 132.75. Coincidence?

Needless to say I am bearish from a technical stand point, let's see what tomorrow brings. Sidelined with GBP/JPY though for the time being.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Weekly_Support_(4-2).png Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Daily_Support_(4-2).png Size: 95 KB
  • #311
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:18am Apr 3, 2013 2:18am
GBP/USD is going to ready for short.

What are you thinking guyes?
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #312
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:30am Apr 3, 2013 2:30am
Quoting khaled_ctg
GBP/USD is going to ready for short. What are you thinking guyes?
I think that is an excellent choice. We have a nice weekly down trend, D1 MACD is not quite bearish but I would take this trade anyways as it is going to cross ove very soon, just wait for H1 to show "over bought" using Williams.

Also, price is still below the 50 EMA.

**Important: Due to the fact that GBP pairs are quite volatile and have a high daily range I actually use 260 SL and 320 TP targets for ALL GBP pairs. So for GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, and GBP/NZD you might want to consider setting like a 250 SL and a 320 TP or something close to that. Just a suggestion.
  • #313
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:35am Apr 3, 2013 2:35am
After looking at the charts it looks to me that we might see EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, and EUR/JPY break through their current support levels today. Keep an eye on the EUR during the next 2 hours or so.

Hope everybody is having a good week so far!
  • #314
  • Apr 3, 2013 2:40am Apr 3, 2013 2:40am
Current Open Positions

2nd Chart shows trades with highest floating profit towards the top. I've highlighted the trades with the most potential of reaching TP targets fairly soon. Looks like two of the EUR/AUD trades will hit TP very soon. Next up are a few EUR/JPY shorts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Open_Positions_(4-2).png Size: 203 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Open_Positions_Highlighted_(4-2).png Size: 197 KB
  • #315
  • Apr 3, 2013 3:04am Apr 3, 2013 3:04am
Quoting 100PipsADay
After looking at the charts it looks to me that we might see EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, and EUR/JPY break through their current support levels today. Keep an eye on the EUR during the next 2 hours or so. Hope everybody is having a good week so far!
I think we should consider news on Construction PMI, if this is as forcast, maybe GBP/USD will go up
  • #316
  • Apr 3, 2013 3:22am Apr 3, 2013 3:22am
Quoting chrjtm
I think we should consider news on Construction PMI, if this is as forcast, maybe GBP/USD will go up
We don't consider "news events" when trading our strategy. If price moves against us (UP) then we simply add another position to get a better average price.

News is relevant only when it contributes to break sequences of measured moves induced by Program Trading on the larger time frames, i.e. daily and weekly. But very rarely news is capable of doing that: what can really change market direction is huge and coordinated participation from smart money and/or central banks.

For instance, the S&P500 was turned higher twice in the last 3 years: the first time in March 2009 and the second time in May-July 2011 by the intervention of the FED with Quantitative Easing initiatives.

A construction PMI will not reverse our current down trend for GBP/USD...
  • #317
  • Apr 3, 2013 4:19am Apr 3, 2013 4:19am
I opened 2 Short positions on GBP/USD as per "Third Screen Strategy"
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #318
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:48am Apr 3, 2013 6:48am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Each position has a SL of 160

are you then not maximising your losses this way ? you have 160 pip SL for each position. if the pair reverses trend then you will be stopped out on all 4 positions (assuming you scaled in and had 4 positions opened on same pair) resulting in a loss of 640 pips in total !

how often has that happened to you, and what would you do to counter it ?


i entered sell yesterday on audnzd as per third screen strategy.

iam not feeling too confident on the audcad short trade i have open. my other daily chart has gone into a ''buy'' mode. i tried to scale in by adding another short position, but the spread was around 9 pips !! remind me not to trade this pair ever again in the future.

iam looking to come out as close to BE as possible on this pair. i will observe the charts and see how things turn out.


at the moment i have positions on gbpjpy - short in profit, audcad - short losing, audnzd - short just in profit.


keeping an eye on the following pairs as per third screen strat.

gpbusd - short

eurnzd - short

audnzd - short

cadchf - buy


  • #319
  • Apr 3, 2013 7:01am Apr 3, 2013 7:01am
Quoting whatfx
are you then not maximising your losses this way ? you have 160 pip SL for each position. if the pair reverses trend then you will be stopped out on all 4 positions (assuming you scaled in and had 4 positions opened on same pair) resulting in a loss of 640 pips in total ! how often has that happened to you, and what would you do to counter it ? i entered sell yesterday on audnzd as per third screen strategy. iam not feeling too confident on the audcad short trade i have open. my other daily chart has gone into a ''buy'' mode. i tried to scale in...
It doesn't matter because the Risk:Reward ratio is always the same. Risk 160 to make 280. That is a risk / reward ratio of 1:1.75 (risk $1 to make $1.75) You just need to adjust your lot sizes accordingly to the stop losses that we use along with max positions. It is all relative...

I have had 4 positions lose in a row multiple times, but I've also had 4 positions win in a row more than the losses. However, I have also had 4 positions opened up with separate entry points and have had a few trades knocked out but then price moved back into the original trend and the remaining positions moved into profit.

Lose 2 = 320
Win 2 = 560

I could win only 50% of my trades and still be VERY profitable in the long run. Fortunately for me, most of the pairs I trade have anywhere from a 65% - 75% win rate with a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.75.


WhatFx,

Please please go back to this post and study the closed trades. Look at open times, look at how many positions were opened at any given time. Look at how new positions were scaled into the trend. Look at the Max draw down on the "statistics" page. Look at the win rate for each pair. And also look at the total accumulated pips. Please study these pages to get a better understanding of how this strategy works. It's all right there for you to learn. It will also save me time so I won't have to keep answering questions that already have answers.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post6520073

By the way, nice trades!
  • #320
  • Apr 3, 2013 7:15am Apr 3, 2013 7:15am
I am following your third screen strategy very successfully, thanks so much for sharing. I have a question - I have saved all my pairs in profiles with Monthly , Daily and 1 hour charts all on one screen, however I have to click to open each individually and I have noticed that the alarm for Williams % overbought/oversold does not go off if that particular pair is not open. How do get the symbols for all my pairs to show along the bottom of the screen so, in effect, they are all open? Is there a toolbar I can install?I have just changed to MT4 so perhaps I am not saving my charts correctly, thanks for helping.
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