Ramblings of a Forex Junkie | Page 100 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Forex Trading: Incorporating Price Behavior into a Forex Trading System 4 replies

Forex Training: What to Look for in a Forex Training Program 1 reply

The Journal Of A Macro Fundamental & Technical Analysis Junkie 26 replies

Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer 147 replies

Attachments: Ramblings of a Forex Junkie
Exit Attachments

Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #1,981
  • Edited 5:29am Apr 3, 2013 4:15am | Edited 5:29am
SP, for the OR retest...price came close as 3.2 pips to the upper range...would you consider this as a valid retest and enter long or would you enter exactly at the range? I did not enter...
You once said you often enter 3-4 pips from the level...
  • #1,982
  • Apr 3, 2013 7:09am Apr 3, 2013 7:09am
I have never previously looked at the London close. Im trading the cme eurdoll futures, I manually timed it 5pm gmt as 1.2843 which held for the morning high with a 30 pip retrace. Is the London close listed officially? because I only get market close figures.
  • #1,983
  • Apr 3, 2013 8:02am Apr 3, 2013 8:02am
Quoting kk007
Hi SP, Price rebound from 3hr before London open level (GMT4:00) a few minutes after news, would you have faded it? {image} {image}
I wish I had been awake to fade it. I had a loser on GU off daily open and would have longed it there but I was not awake yet. I need to be able to sleep some so I enter the trades and go to sleep. I miss some retest entries due to my schedule.
  • #1,984
  • Apr 3, 2013 8:03am Apr 3, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Olarion1975
SP, for the OR retest...price came close as 3.2 pips to the upper range...would you consider this as a valid retest and enter long or would you enter exactly at the range? I did not enter... You once said you often enter 3-4 pips from the level...
I assume you are in now?
  • #1,985
  • Apr 3, 2013 8:11am Apr 3, 2013 8:11am
If I have a complaint with my style of trading today would be the type of day I complain about.

Since I take the first trade triggered I was short EU and GU from the daily open. I set the stops and targets and went to sleep. Of course the easy thing to say is it was dumb to go short so close to the previous day low, and there is some truth to that, but there are so many days where the daily open pointed in the correct direction and the low got broken that you are a little dumb to ignore it also. I don't know if it a bias or not but when the daily open was triggered I had absolutely no problem shorting. There is so much wrong with the Euro that shorting it just comes naturally. Of course when price came so close to the Tue low early in the session I was poised to go long just as my rules dictate so the only conclusion for me is I made good trades. I followed the rules of my method. I lost a couple of percent today but I did it by the book and there is nothing negative about that. Still some trading left today and I would like to catch a percent or two but if not no sweat.
  • #1,986
  • Apr 3, 2013 8:44am Apr 3, 2013 8:44am
Quoting Seneca pilot
If I have a complaint with my style of trading today would be the type of day I complain about. Since I take the first trade triggered I was short EU and GU from the daily open. I set the stops and targets and went to sleep. Of course the easy thing to say is it was dumb to go short so close to the previous day low, and there is some truth to that, but there are so many days where the daily open pointed in the correct direction and the low got broken that you are a little dumb to ignore it also. I don't know if it a bias or not but when the daily...
Tough day for me I will probably call it a day if nothing good comes up soon. I will need to drown my sorrows in some milk.
  • #1,987
  • Apr 3, 2013 8:56am Apr 3, 2013 8:56am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Of course the easy thing to say is it was dumb to go short so close to the previous day low, and there is some truth to that, but there are so many days where the daily open pointed in the correct direction and the low got broken that you are a little dumb to ignore it also. I don't know if it a bias or not but when the daily open was triggered I had absolutely no problem shorting. There is so much wrong with the Euro that shorting it just comes naturally. Of course when price came so close to the Tue low early in the session I was poised to go...
SP,
Are you saying from exp. that using dailyopen has better stats than DailyHigh or Low ? I was lucky today entered on DailyLow and got about 3RR on both GU and GJ. Still busy doing my homework and building stats.

Read all the thread and really like the way you trade. Thanks again for sharing and for your time.
the market is not random but anything can happen.
  • #1,988
  • Apr 3, 2013 9:29am Apr 3, 2013 9:29am
Quoting vspatrick
SP, Are you saying from exp. that using dailyopen has better stats than DailyHigh or Low ? I was lucky today entered on DailyLow and got about 3RR on both GU and GJ. Still busy doing my homework and building stats. Read all the thread and really like the way you trade. Thanks again for sharing and for your time.
They are about the same over time. Often when price closes so close to the low as it did yesterday it will go down and go long off the low then reverse when it hits the daily open and then break the low. Just as often you see what happened today. The only answer I have is to take the first trade that is triggered and manage things from there. My problem is the managing. I can't stay up around the clock and I can't sleep during the day because I have the boys to take care of. If I were able to have stayed awake last night it would have been no big deal to reverse at the appropriate locations but I didn't get the opportunity to do that so I am left with the loss. Not really a big deal but I would, of course, love to come up with a set of guidelines to get the correct level on a given day. The levels work well but there is no way to always know which one to take at a particular time.
  • #1,989
  • Apr 3, 2013 9:57am Apr 3, 2013 9:57am
Quoting Seneca pilot
They are about the same over time. Often when price closes so close to the low as it did yesterday it will go down and go long off the low then reverse when it hits the daily open and then break the low. Just as often you see what happened today. The only answer I have is to take the first trade that is triggered and manage things from there. My problem is the managing. I can't stay up around the clock and I can't sleep during the day because I have the boys to take care of. If I were able to have stayed awake last night it would have been no big...
A recent example of the daily open winning out over the previous day high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily open wins.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,990
  • Apr 3, 2013 10:20am Apr 3, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Seneca pilot
A recent example of the daily open winning out over the previous day high. {image}
Here's another where the low gets taken out by the daily open. I wish it was always simple and cut and dried but it isn't. Anybody want to suggest a method that never loses?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily open wins.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,991
  • Edited 10:42am Apr 3, 2013 10:38am | Edited 10:42am
Like you said, being able to accept the loss is essential.

You mentioned that you played the daily opened on the EU, on my Oanda feed the dailyLow was the first entry.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: [EURUSD,M15]-1.jpg Size: 83 KB


Is my daily opening set at the right place ? (5 GMT as you stated)
the market is not random but anything can happen.
  • #1,992
  • Apr 3, 2013 10:39am Apr 3, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Seneca pilot
The levels work well but there is no way to always know which one to take at a particular time.
SP I see it this way - the EU DO did work today, it's just that price hit a trendline at 1.2788 area and bounced. Draw an acending channel on 15M with the bottom line joining Thursdays low (candle bodies) with Mondays low (candle bodies), you will now see why price bounced at 2788. Channels are very influential but like levels you can't say when price will respect or not, but atleast you can be aware of what is out there and plan ahead accordingly.

On the house.
  • #1,993
  • Apr 3, 2013 10:55am Apr 3, 2013 10:55am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I assume you are in now?
Yes, I am!
Closed one half for 0.5%, second half running with stop at BE. Looks good, much room above...
  • #1,994
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:02am Apr 3, 2013 11:02am
Quoting vspatrick
Like you said, being able to accept the loss is essential. You mentioned that you played the daily opened on the EU, on my Oanda feed the dailyLow was the first entry. {image} Is my daily opening set at the right place ? (5 GMT as you stated)
I have the opening price as 28052 and two complete fifteen minute bars below it for a short entry. Wish I didn't.
  • #1,995
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:04am Apr 3, 2013 11:04am
Quoting vspatrick
Like you said, being able to accept the loss is essential. You mentioned that you played the daily opened on the EU, on my Oanda feed the dailyLow was the first entry. {image} Is my daily opening set at the right place ? (5 GMT as you stated)
I think Day Open is GMT 4:00 am..... i.e. 3 hour before London Open and i.e. EST 0:00.
If you use Oanda, no adjustment is needed...
  • #1,996
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:04am Apr 3, 2013 11:04am
Quoting Olarion1975
Yes, I am! Closed one half for 0.5%, second half running with stop at BE. Looks good, much room above...
Yes sir the last week high is WAAAAY up there. Maybe this one will run. At least one of my accounts is making a little today.
  • #1,997
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:06am Apr 3, 2013 11:06am
regarding the chart you posted, i couldnt actually see the opening range but on this chart i reposted No1 boxed in.... No2 level broke...No3 inside bar three great signals that it was going down. i also noticed that some of the guys are thinking when that is dangerous, trade the method and you will succeed, do not think of a loss as a loss its just a casualty, be good
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xxx.PNG Size: 39 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,998
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:18am Apr 3, 2013 11:18am
Quoting stevexyg
SP I see it this way - the EU DO did work today, it's just that price hit a trendline at 1.2788 area and bounced. Draw an acending channel on 15M with the bottom line joining Thursdays low (candle bodies) with Mondays low (candle bodies), you will now see why price bounced at 2788. Channels are very influential but like levels you can't say when price will respect or not, but atleast you can be aware of what is out there and plan ahead accordingly. On the house.
I am going to emphatically disagree with this statement. I am not claiming that I know everything, but I am 99% sure that the reason it did not go any lower was not because of a trendline/channel. Price was moving down and hit a series of stops in an area and not a specific price/level. This area has no relation to the reason posted above. I am also not claiming that I knew this was going to happen, but price was signaling a potential bias up from the start. Too much going on to go south, but not to say it was inevitable.

Don't be fooled...
  • #1,999
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:30am Apr 3, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I wish I had been awake to fade it. I had a loser on GU off daily open and would have longed it there but I was not awake yet. I need to be able to sleep some so I enter the trades and go to sleep. I miss some retest entries due to my schedule.
That one is 3 minutes after news, and movement seemed still due to news outcome. I am not sure if you would take it even when awaken.
  • #2,000
  • Apr 3, 2013 11:31am Apr 3, 2013 11:31am
Quoting TantumVerum
I am going to emphatically disagree with this statement. I am not claiming that I know everything, but I am 99% sure that the reason it did not go any lower was not because of a trendline/channel. Price was moving down and hit a series of stops in an area and not a specific price/level. This area has no relation to the reason posted above. I am also not claiming that I knew this was going to happen, but price was signaling a potential bias up from the start. Too much going on to go south, but not to say it was inevitable. Don't be fooled......
I will go farther out on a limb and say that I believe that it went higher because of the order flow around the Tuesday low. I only wish I had been awake to see it happening because I would have reversed. It is NFP week and the price likely won't move too far in any direction before Friday.
0 traders viewing now