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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #3,761
  • Apr 2, 2013 8:12pm Apr 2, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting fxrustyspoon
ya i know i follow you guys...im a sleeper ff junkie...
It just didn't seem like you'd read the last couple pages based on your questions.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #3,762
  • Apr 2, 2013 8:16pm Apr 2, 2013 8:16pm
20 EMA is about to cross over the 50 EMA on the Daily chart. Last time this happened was May 15, 2012 and price dropped 1,000 pips (from 128 down to 118) in almost exactly 2 weeks time.

After which the 20 EMA did not cross back over the 50 EMA to the upside until August 20, 2012 (3 months later) at which time price was around 123.

Obviously tomorrow could change things for the JPY cross pairs but for the time being I am definitely bearish on GBP/JPY as well as EUR/JPY. I am actually thinking that most of what we can expect tomorrow has already been priced in during the past 5-6 month bull run so there is a bigger risk that markets will be disappointed for one reason or another.

Also, take a look at historical open position ratios at Oanda. More and more retailers are going LONG on USD/JPY as well as other JPY cross pairs. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions

I doubt the Big Boys are going to hand out free lunches tomorrow. Who knows though, this is the FOREX market and anything is possible...

**Bulls Beware**
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  • #3,763
  • Apr 2, 2013 8:20pm Apr 2, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
20 EMA is about to cross over the 50 EMA on the Daily chart. Last time this happened was May 15, 2012 and price dropped 1,000 pips (from 128 down to 118) in almost exactly 2 weeks time. After which the 20 EMA did not cross back over the 50 EMA to the upside until August 20, 2012 (3 months later) at which time price was around 123. Obviously tomorrow could change things for the JPY cross pairs but for the time being I am definitely bearish on GBP/JPY as well as EUR/JPY. I am actually thinking that most of what we can expect tomorrow has already been...
Good spot there but I would add also that until the MA has crossed over, the trend is still intact. BOJ disappointment would definitely expose good down move towards 134.
  • #3,764
  • Apr 2, 2013 8:24pm Apr 2, 2013 8:24pm
long for 141.70 then sell the crud out of 141.78.! ABC downward just finished possibly....my 9-18 ma floortrader dealy

if 141.89 rejects it....that's goin' down
  • #3,765
  • Apr 2, 2013 8:25pm Apr 2, 2013 8:25pm
Current Target for GBP/JPY: 132.75

If markets are disappointed tomorrow (which I expect they will be) then I see us moving back down to 132.75 which helps us to form a new "higher low" from a weekly perspective.

Resistance turned Support

Interestingly enough the last time the 20 EMA crossed over the 50 EMA to the downside (which was on May 15, 2012) price moved down almost exactly 1,000 pips in 2 weeks time. 1,000 pip drop this time would take us right to my weekly support @ 132.75. Coincidence?

Needless to say I am bearish from a technical stand point, let's see what tomorrow brings. Sidelined with GBP/JPY though for the time being.
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  • #3,766
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:00pm Apr 2, 2013 9:00pm
cool, 135.xx is the wave count barrier....for elliott wave analysis....
  • #3,767
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:34pm Apr 2, 2013 9:34pm
Actually passed out for a few. lol

I say...., ema this, EW that....

The only thing that concerns me about these longs? PRICE! And right now the pound has one last chance to change direction because it just crossed a pretty good SR point. If it breaks the one just below it's going
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,768
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:46pm Apr 2, 2013 9:46pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Current Target for GBP/JPY: 132.75 If markets are disappointed tomorrow (which I expect they will).
Hey Terry,

So you're a bear on the yen now, or just the pound/yen? And....what's tomorrow? I thought the BoJ that everyone is concerned about is on the 4th.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,769
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:53pm Apr 2, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting albchr
Hey Terry, So you're a bear on the yen now, or just the pound/yen? And....what's tomorrow? I thought the BoJ that everyone is concerned about is on the 4th.
Hey Chris!

Yep I'm bearish on USD/JPY as well as the JPY cross pairs for the time being. Have been since March 18th when I closed out my long positions and started shorting EUR/JPY.

Don't get me wrong, this is more of a short to mid term outlook though as I am definitely bearish on the JPY long term (years...) but I'm not going to throw away thousands of pips by keeping a bullish bias.

Banked about 1,100 pips with my 4 EUR/JPY shorts from March 18th till now. Also have some EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY short positions opened at this time. Waiting on GBP/JPY though as I am content with current positions.

You can find my positions here when they were opened. I have been keeping track of closed and current opened positions at least a couple times a week: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post6547244

As for the BOJ events tomorrow there is no way to know what will happen in advance so I will trade what I see now, if SL gets hit then so be it. I will reassess after that.
  • #3,770
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:54pm Apr 2, 2013 9:54pm
Quoting albchr
Actually passed out for a few. lol I say...., ema this, EW that.... The only thing that concerns me about these longs? PRICE! And right now the pound has one last chance to change direction because it just crossed a pretty good SR point. If it breaks the one just below it's going {image}
what pair is that chart...I'm curious can't quite see the second pair....
  • #3,771
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:59pm Apr 2, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
As for the BOJ events tomorrow there is no way to know what will happen in advance so I will trade what I see now, if SL gets hit then so be it. I will reassess after that.
I understand where you're coming from on your bias bro but, TOMORROW is the 3rd dude. The BoJ is the 4th.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,772
  • Apr 2, 2013 9:59pm Apr 2, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
what pair is that chart...I'm curious can't quite see the second pair....
That's the Pound Index.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,773
  • Apr 2, 2013 10:02pm Apr 2, 2013 10:02pm
Quoting albchr
I understand where you're coming from on your bias bro but, TOMORROW is the 3rd dude. The BoJ is the 4th.
What's going on on the 4th? I think tomorrow is Japan's "4th of April" Could be mistaken though...

I thought everything important JPY related is tomorrow? (except for of course NFP which affects U/J)
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  • #3,774
  • Apr 2, 2013 10:03pm Apr 2, 2013 10:03pm
thanks for that....so the baseline of the GBP index is 260 something.....and the USD index is 80......something else to look up online.....I got a list.....


that JPY news graphic...thanks...they're going to whiplash us....that's the 3rd...then the fourth...WHIPLASH....coming......I called it
  • #3,775
  • Apr 2, 2013 10:04pm Apr 2, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting albchr
I understand where you're coming from on your bias bro but, TOMORROW is the 3rd dude. The BoJ is the 4th.
4th in Japan, dude!
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  • #3,776
  • Apr 2, 2013 10:18pm Apr 2, 2013 10:18pm
Quoting Geppy
4th in Japan, dude!
Oh crap, I was looking at the FF calendar and it shows it on the 4th "here".
Attached Image
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,777
  • Apr 2, 2013 10:37pm Apr 2, 2013 10:37pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
What's going on on the 4th? I think tomorrow is Japan's "4th of April" Could be mistaken though... I thought everything important JPY related is tomorrow? (except for of course NFP which affects U/J) {image}
Well it's my bad I guess but being that I don't live in Japan, it's on the 4th here and I guess their clock just get's there first....lol

No matter as I really don't concern myself with the fundies. My charts have served me well by themselves. I knew the longs I have were a risky play and as of now, PA is not making me happy about them. All I can say is the dragon does seem to be basing at 141ish for now so as always, I'll follow price and see what happens.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,778
  • Apr 2, 2013 11:08pm Apr 2, 2013 11:08pm
Quoting albchr
Well it's my bad I guess but being that I don't live in Japan, it's on the 4th here and I guess their clock just get's there first....lol No matter as I really don't concern myself with the fundies. My charts have served me well by themselves. I knew the longs I have were a risky play and as of now, PA is not making me happy about them. All I can say is the dragon does seem to be basing at 141ish for now so as always, I'll follow price and see what happens.
I haven't been posting in this thread lately but have been following everybody's posts. You're doing great Chris! Keep it up man

I really don't like to concern myself with the fundies either. The same news event with same numbers can cause a pair to go up one day and then down another... LOL

However, it is good to keep track of the fundies for a macro view of the markets.
  • #3,779
  • Apr 2, 2013 11:18pm Apr 2, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I haven't been posting in this thread lately but have been following everybody's posts. You're doing great Chris! Keep it up man I really don't like to concern myself with the fundies either. The same news event with same numbers can cause a pair to go up one day and then down another... LOL However, it is good to keep track of the fundies for a macro view of the markets.
Yeah, if you have a macro account and trade on a macro scale, I guess so. But for trading on a daily/weekly or even monthly basis, it has little meaning especially in times like this where all the governments have completely destroyed any "real", product and service based economy and everything runs off fabricated and manipulated "news & numbers".

Under these conditions, what one might have planed for a month from now, can change tomorrow.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,780
  • Apr 2, 2013 11:42pm Apr 2, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting albchr
Yeah, if you have a macro account and trade on a macro scale, I guess so. But for trading on a daily/weekly or even monthly basis, it has little meaning especially in times like this where all the governments have completely destroyed any "real", product and service based economy and everything runs off fabricated and manipulated "news & numbers". Under these conditions, what one might have planed for a month from now, can change tomorrow.
I will kind of have to disagree with you on this one my friend. For example, let's take a look at all of the JPY news related articles that I started posting back in October. I actually started receiving them from various financial research companies earlier then when I posted.

Take a look at the actual dates for the articles in ( )

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post6131313 (June 9, 2012)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post6135073 (August 18, 2012)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post6135073 (October 29, 2012)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post6152201 (November 1, 2012)


After reviewing these articles and the fundamental factors behind the imminent weakening of the Yen it was time to pull up the charts and look for a decent place for entry. Once USD/JPY broke out of a weekly down trend I started buying USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. December ended up being my best month and I banked close to 10,000 pips in December alone trading only JPY cross pairs!

The fundamentals pointed me in the right direction and I used technical for my entry points. Even a small account could have grown massively if one were to keep scaling in new positions as the trend moved in their favor... ALL JPY cross pairs moved up thousands of pips each in a period of about 4 months!
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