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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #1,901
  • Apr 2, 2013 3:58am Apr 2, 2013 3:58am
Definitely not my best exits but decent trades and I need some sleep:

PS. I almost added another position at Monday low for EJ but too much risk.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,902
  • Apr 2, 2013 4:12am Apr 2, 2013 4:12am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Definitely not my best exits but decent trades and I need some sleep: PS. I almost added another position at Monday low for EJ but too much risk. {image} {image}
Nice trading...I took the same...exited EJ for 32 pips and GJ for 25 pips.

My SL on GJ is only 29 pips...5 EMA of 5-day-ATR is 126 pips (rounded up) --> 20% is 25 pips + 3 pips (spread) + 1 pip = 29 pips
How come you have 33 pips?

I am short on the opening range breakout...let's see how deep it falls...
  • #1,903
  • Apr 2, 2013 4:21am Apr 2, 2013 4:21am
Quoting Olarion1975
Nice trading...I took the same...exited EJ for 32 pips and GJ for 25 pips. My SL on GJ is only 29 pips...5 EMA of 5-day-ATR is 126 pips (rounded up) --> 20% is 25 pips + 3 pips (spread) + 1 pip = 29 pips How come you have 33 pips? I am short on the opening range breakout...let's see how deep it falls...
I had, at yesterday close on GJ 143.16 for the EMA so 28.6 rounded to 29 plus four for the spread.

I missed the OR today. Might be a big mistake as there is 84 more pips to go to the low from last week.

My exits are looking better now.
  • #1,904
  • Apr 2, 2013 4:28am Apr 2, 2013 4:28am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I had, at yesterday close on GJ 143.16 for the EMA so 28.6 rounded to 29 plus four for the spread. I missed the OR today. Might be a big mistake as there is 84 more pips to go to the low from last week. My exits are looking better now.
Ah, ok. I finally found the difference....you use a 5 SMA (simple moving average) for the smoothing of the ATR and I used the 5 EMA. Correct?

With the 5 SMA I get exactly your value of 143.16. My second mistake was to take the ATR value of the current day and not from the previous closed day.
  • #1,905
  • Apr 2, 2013 4:34am Apr 2, 2013 4:34am
Quoting Olarion1975
Ah, ok. I finally found the difference....you use a 5 SMA (simple moving average) for the smoothing of the ATR and I used the 5 EMA. Correct? With the 5 SMA I get exactly your value of 143.16. My second mistake was to take the ATR value of the current day and not from the previous closed day.
You are right. I have simple. I said EMA before. Sorry for the confusion.

I set my values at midnight as I am setting my lines. I always get the value for the last five full days this way. If you use the current day reading it skews the value downward because of the small range of the partial day.
  • #1,906
  • Apr 2, 2013 4:35am Apr 2, 2013 4:35am
Good night all going to sleep. Back in a few hours.
  • #1,907
  • Apr 2, 2013 4:36am Apr 2, 2013 4:36am
Quoting Seneca pilot
You are right. I have simple. I said EMA before. Sorry for the confusion. I set my values at midnight as I am setting my lines. I always get the value for the last five full days this way. If you use the current day reading it skews the value downward because of the small range of the partial day.
Perfect, I am glad we settled the case!
Good night!
  • #1,908
  • Apr 2, 2013 4:36am Apr 2, 2013 4:36am
Quoting MapleLeaf
Good thread, subscribing.
Welcome aboard.
  • #1,909
  • Apr 2, 2013 6:49am Apr 2, 2013 6:49am
Hi!

Did anyone take the "yesterdays low" entry of GU? (for long)
And if not then, is there a valid reason why not?

Thanks
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #1,910
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:04am Apr 2, 2013 7:04am
Hi Seneca,

Wanted to thank you for a brilliant thread. About 1/3 of the way through reading it all. You've been very generous with everything you've shared.

Are you mostly looking at EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY now? Kicking myself for not that EUR/JPY trade earlier. Oh well... Anyway, here is a GBP/USD short I took off of yesterday's London close. A nice 2:1. +48 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm15.png Size: 53 KB
  • #1,911
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:09am Apr 2, 2013 7:09am
Quoting rdsl
Hi! Did anyone take the "yesterdays low" entry of GU? (for long) And if not then, is there a valid reason why not? Thanks
I didn't take that one as I had already gone short on that pair at 1.5230, yesterday's London close. I had just got out of that trade at +48 before it hit yesterday's low, so was not keen to enter another trade long at that point.
  • #1,912
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:11am Apr 2, 2013 7:11am
Good Morning.

I have a question regarding Current EJ H1 Chart:

• Yellow is Previous Week & Month Low.
• Orange dotted is Pre London 3 hour range, which at the bottom is also current daily/weekly lows.
• Blue Dotted is Previous Daily Low.

Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 indicate previous encounters with Previous Week & Month Low.

√ 1st part of question is there too much going on here to consider a trade before leaving this 50 pip range?

√ Next, I currently am placing emphasis on Prev Wk & Month Low (Yellow), as the key area. Does this area already have too much activity and is possibly losing it's importance?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 4-2-13 Levels.png Size: 24 KB
  • #1,913
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:21am Apr 2, 2013 7:21am
Quoting rdsl
Hi! Did anyone take the "yesterdays low" entry of GU? (for long) And if not then, is there a valid reason why not? Thanks
I did not take it. My valid reasons:

I was asleep

I had already taken two trades for the night

If I were awake and hadn't already traded other stuff I would have taken it and would now be waiting for a retest to short. ATR however could now creep in to be a problem for any shorts.
  • #1,914
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:22am Apr 2, 2013 7:22am
Quoting Tech10Ken
I didn't take that one as I had already gone short on that pair at 1.5230, yesterday's London close. I had just got out of that trade at +48 before it hit yesterday's low, so was not keen to enter another trade long at that point.
Discretion with regard to choosing entries is a big part of the success of this method on a given day. Over time things even out. Nice trade.
  • #1,915
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:27am Apr 2, 2013 7:27am
Quoting diamonddbw
Good Morning. I have a question regarding Current EJ H1 Chart: • Yellow is Previous Week & Month Low. • Orange dotted is Pre London 3 hour range, which at the bottom is also current daily/weekly lows. • Blue Dotted is Previous Daily Low. Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 indicate previous encounters with Previous Week & Month Low. √ 1st part of question is there too much going on here to consider a trade before leaving this 50 pip range? √ Next, I currently am placing emphasis on Prev Wk & Month Low (Yellow), as the key area. Does this...
Sometimes those weekly levels are very sticky. Other weeks the price may shoot off the level and never look back. I tend to look less at the level as it gets hit again and again. The daily levels are easier to play at this point as it gets tougher and tougher to figure out which way it wants to go. Do remember this is NFP week and there will be lots of positioning and book squaring leading up to the news so price tends to be squiggly. The range is often squeezed a bit during this week leading up to the employment figures.
  • #1,916
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:35am Apr 2, 2013 7:35am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I did not take it. My valid reasons: I was asleep I had already taken two trades for the night If I were awake and hadn't already traded other stuff I would have taken it and would now be waiting for a retest to short. ATR however could now creep in to be a problem for any shorts.
OK ,cool thanks Chris.
Man, did you really sleep around 2 hours and 50 minutes today?
Wow, and I thought I was a junkie
I can't even think ,what kind of success would you have ,had you been able to get more of the horizontal stuff...
Now I appreciate your work even more.
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #1,917
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:46am Apr 2, 2013 7:46am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Sometimes those weekly levels are very sticky. Other weeks the price may shoot off the level and never look back. I tend to look less at the level as it gets hit again and again. The daily levels are easier to play at this point as it gets tougher and tougher to figure out which way it wants to go. Do remember this is NFP week and there will be lots of positioning and book squaring leading up to the news so price tends to be squiggly. The range is often squeezed a bit during this week leading up to the employment figures.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thank You.

I was considering this entire zone as a good place to only observe, thinking that the weekly/monthly line had already been respected and now, possibly would be abused or ignored.
  • #1,918
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:50am Apr 2, 2013 7:50am
Here's my view of overused Levels:

Inserted Video
  • #1,919
  • Apr 2, 2013 7:54am Apr 2, 2013 7:54am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I did not take it. My valid reasons: I was asleep I had already taken two trades for the night If I were awake and hadn't already traded other stuff I would have taken it and would now be waiting for a retest to short. ATR however could now creep in to be a problem for any shorts.
It would be a loser if taken, isn't it?
My indicator for Oanda MT4 taken "Sunday" Low and it is 1.5177.
Do your indicator takes Monday or Sunday low?
  • #1,920
  • Apr 2, 2013 8:24am Apr 2, 2013 8:24am
Quoting kk007
It would be a loser if taken, isn't it? My indicator for Oanda MT4 taken "Sunday" Low and it is 1.5177. Do your indicator takes Monday or Sunday low?
On behalf as I'm bored, yes looser. That's why he said he'd be looking for a reversal - so a retest of level from below before entering short.

He draws manually and uses Sunday high and low as an extension of previous week so Friday ends on Sunday night. Sounds like an excuse for a party.
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