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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #241
  • Edited 2:27pm Mar 31, 2013 12:33pm | Edited 2:27pm
100pip,
I've read on a few of your post where you mention the weekly TF. I'm still trying to implement this triple screen strategy into my naked PA system but need a couple of questions clarified.

Do you only use the daily TF MACD crossover to recognize the change in sentiment, or do you also look at the bigger picture with what the MACD is doing on the weekly TF as Elder suggested? I believe he suggested using the slope of the MACD on the weekly to establish the long term trend or as he called it (the tide) b4 even looking at the daily TF (the wave).

I know that you use the hourly chart for entry but before that, do you wait until the daily MACD crossover is in agreement with the weekly first? Or do you basically ignore the weekly TF altogether and just use the daily and hourly charts? Maybe your daily TF is the tide and hourly is the wave.

I also read that Elder prefers now to use the 13 week EMA for establishing the trend. Do you have an opinion?

Also, what is your default setting for MACD? Please clarify. Sorry if the question sound repetitious. Thanks for your time 100pip.
  • #242
  • Mar 31, 2013 2:47pm Mar 31, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
100pip, I've read on a few of your post where you mention the weekly TF. I'm still trying to implement this triple screen strategy into my naked PA system but need a couple of questions clarified. Do you only use the daily TF MACD crossover to recognize the change in sentiment, or do you also look at the bigger picture with what the MACD is doing on the weekly TF as Elder suggested? I believe he suggested using the slope of the MACD on the weekly to establish the long term trend or as he called it (the tide) b4 even looking at the daily TF (the...
Hi MKFXTrader,

I definitely like to keep an eye on the Monthly & Weekly time frames to find the overall trend. Then I drop down to the D1 and wait for confirmation before looking at the H1 for entry points.

Monthly and Weekly is very important in my opinion as it is dangerous to go against the overall trend even if the D1 MACD is saying to do so. This is actually why I didn't buy GBP/USD last week when D1 MACD was "bullish" as the Weekly trend is down and it also broke out of a 4-Year symmetrical triangle to the downside a little over a month ago. Overall trend is down so it is best to wait for D1 MACD to cross over to the downside before entering more short positions.

As for EMA's I prefer the 20 and 50 EMA but this is totally separate from the Third Screen Strategy that is explained throughout this thread. I feel Price Action on the higher time frames are VERY important but I don't want to confuse the traders trying to learn the Third Screen Strategy with Price Action @ Support / Resistance as well as trading using the 20 EMA and 50 EMAs.
  • #243
  • Mar 31, 2013 3:01pm Mar 31, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi MKFXTrader, I definitely like to keep an eye on the Monthly & Weekly time frames to find the overall trend. Then I drop down to the D1 and wait for confirmation before looking at the H1 for entry points. Monthly and Weekly is very important in my opinion as it is dangerous to go against the overall trend even if the D1 MACD is saying to do so. This is actually why I didn't buy GBP/USD last week when D1 MACD was "bullish" as the Weekly trend is down and it also broke out of a 4-Year symmetrical triangle to the downside a little over a month...
Great explanation. I too like to look at the weekly TF and making sure the daily is in agreement with it. BTW-When you are looking at the weekly TF, are you using the MACD crossover or slope at all, or just your EMA's? What is your setting on MACD? 12,26,9?
  • #244
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:01pm Mar 31, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Current Open Positions **All current open positions were executed using the Third Screen Strategy explained throughout this thread** {image}
Current Open Positions

So far so good...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Open_Positions_(4-1).png Size: 177 KB
  • #245
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:12pm Mar 31, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Current Open Positions So far so good... {image}
NIce trade .

AUDJPY seems a nice short,will you get a position?
  • #246
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:20pm Mar 31, 2013 10:20pm
Quoting Fishcoo
NIce trade . AUDJPY seems a nice short,will you get a position?
Thanks Fishcoo. I will probably wait until after the BOJ meeting on April 3rd. I don't think we will see much bullish movement as market tends to price things in in advance but I will keep my EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY shorts on. In fact, I'm thinking that the market may be disappointed on the 3rd and we could see another big sell off in USD/JPY as well as the cross pairs.

My opinion is to short AUD/JPY once we see H1 "over bought" using Williams % indicator as D1 MACD is telling us to sell.

Take a look at this EUR/JPY Daily chart. We could be heading much lower to form new weekly lows, question is, how low will we go?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Daily_20_and_50_EMA_(4-1).png Size: 129 KB
  • #247
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:31pm Mar 31, 2013 10:31pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi MKFXTrader, I definitely like to keep an eye on the Monthly & Weekly time frames to find the overall trend. Then I drop down to the D1 and wait for confirmation before looking at the H1 for entry points. Monthly and Weekly is very important in my opinion as it is dangerous to go against the overall trend even if the D1 MACD is saying to do so. This is actually why I didn't buy GBP/USD last week when D1 MACD was "bullish" as the Weekly trend is down and it also broke out of a 4-Year symmetrical triangle to the downside a little over a month...
Thanks Sir for the clear explanation. Now I understand that why you don't trade even the Daily MACD gives signal. It is important that Monthly, Weekly and Daily trend should be same direction. Anyway can you suggest a way or technic to determine the overall trend?
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #248
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:39pm Mar 31, 2013 10:39pm
Quoting khaled_ctg
Thanks Sir for the clear explanation. Now I understand that why you don't trade even the Daily MACD gives signal. It is important that Monthly, Weekly and Daily trend should be same direction. Anyway can you suggest a way or technic to determine the overall trend?
I don't really know how to explain in detail how to determine the overall trend except for looking at monthly and weekly charts. Maybe somebody else here can help explain how to determine the overall trend in a detailed manner.

Take a look at the EUR/AUD Monthly & Weekly charts and tell me if we are in an up trend or a down trend. This is why it is best to wait for sell signals as the overall trend is clearly down for this pair...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_Monthly_(4-1).png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_Weekly_(4-1).png Size: 90 KB
  • #249
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:37am Apr 1, 2013 12:37am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Current Open Positions So far so good... {image}
Very nice and impressive trades. ... .. . .

But there is no EUR/CAD short trade. This pair is recommended and I think it now qualifies "Third Screen Strategy". Your opinion please sir.
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #250
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:41am Apr 1, 2013 12:41am
Quoting khaled_ctg
Very nice and impressive trades. ... .. . . But there is no EUR/CAD short trade. This pair is recommended and I think it now qualifies "Third Screen Strategy". Your opinion please sir.
I don't have any open EUR/CAD trades at this time but may look to short again in the near future. There was an opportunity on the H1 time frame to short EUR/CAD from March 26 - March 28 if one was interested in going short.

Below are recently closed EUR/CAD trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD_Closed_Positions_(4-1).png Size: 53 KB
  • #251
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:51am Apr 1, 2013 12:51am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I don't have any open EUR/CAD trades at this time but may look to short again in the near future. There was an opportunity on the H1 time frame to short EUR/CAD from March 26 - March 28 if one was interested in going short. Below are recently closed EUR/CAD trades. {image}
Further do you recommend any trading session to open a position?
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #252
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:53am Apr 1, 2013 12:53am
Quoting khaled_ctg
Further do you recommend and trading session to open a position?
No it doesn't matter as positions are typically held for at least a few days and even weeks. Sometimes we could hold positions for over a month depending on market conditions...

We aren't scalping or day trading, we are Swing Trading.
  • #253
  • Apr 1, 2013 2:18am Apr 1, 2013 2:18am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Current Open Positions So far so good... {image}
I've highlighted the trades that could possibly hit profit targets today. At this time it is only the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trades that may hit TP's fairly soon. CAD/JPY trades are also moving nicely into profit.

I'm off to bed so I'll check back in the morning my time to see how things are looking.

As stated earlier, so far so good. If we see a retrace on any of the JPY cross pairs it could be profitable to enter short assuming H1 is showing "over bought" using Williams %.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Open_Positions_Highlighted_(4-1).png Size: 170 KB
  • #254
  • Apr 1, 2013 2:19am Apr 1, 2013 2:19am
Forgot to mention, EUR/USD could be hitting "over bought" territory on the H1 time frame fairly soon so if you didn't get short late last week you might want to consider a position or two...
  • #255
  • Apr 1, 2013 2:31am Apr 1, 2013 2:31am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I've highlighted the trades that could possibly hit profit targets today. At this time it is only the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trades that may hit TP's fairly soon. CAD/JPY trades are also moving nicely into profit. I'm off to bed so I'll check back in the morning my time to see how things are looking. As stated earlier, so far so good. If we see a retrace on any of the JPY cross pairs it could be profitable to enter short assuming H1 is showing "over bought" using Williams %. {image}
Nice job .. . .
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #256
  • Apr 1, 2013 7:42am Apr 1, 2013 7:42am
i hate to think my audcad short might go in a range for the next few weeks. hope not.
  • #257
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:10pm Apr 1, 2013 12:10pm
Added one more EUR/USD short @ 1.28522 (H1 is "over bought")

Take a look at how the 50 EMA acts as a "moving resistance" on the H4 chart. We might get one more burst upwards before resuming down trend and if so I will look to add 2 more positions on the way up. OR, we may have topped out and will resume down trend. Anybody looking to get short may want to do so now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_((4-1).png Size: 93 KB
  • #258
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:16pm Apr 1, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Added one more EUR/USD short @ 1.28522 (H1 is "over bought") Take a look at how the 50 EMA acts as a "moving support" on the H4 chart. We might get one more burst upwards before resuming down trend and if so I will look to add 2 more positions on the way up. OR, we may have topped out and will resume down trend. Anybody looking to get short may want to do so now... {image}
Already short on EUR/USD and EUR/CAD. But it seems it was done a bit earlier .... .
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #259
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:18pm Apr 1, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting khaled_ctg
Already short on EUR/USD and EUR/CAD. But it seems it was done a bit earlier .... .


What did you use for SL and TP targets?
  • #260
  • Apr 1, 2013 12:19pm Apr 1, 2013 12:19pm
Also, just opened a short position for EUR/CAD @ 1.30592. Will look to add one more if we move a bit higher throughout the day.
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