The Really Useless Thread

thanks, and some good insights there...

anything moving today?

sup chonch...

Hey Conchy,

long time no se no hear? What is up, friend? Where are you hiding?


Hope all is well :-)



Kind regards,



Markus

sorry guys miss your post after the inactivity, I went to sleep, how are you?, hope well......

hello infinitus, how are you, I'm always at the cesarnc thread, is my corner of the woods, tryng to beat the markets but the markets are trying to beat me, lol, hope you are well and your family......

Happy Eastern to all of you in this thread, with no esections, may you have all a great holidays.......

happy Easter everyone

Nice to see London just undid the entire down move attempt. Sigh. Are we ever going to have a euro again that isn't bound by a 100 pip range lasting days on end?

watching 8Hr. 12hr looks bully too

Hey Pipper. How's the 8hr and 12hr trading going? Love the 12h myself. But there isn't much of a range to play with. From the daily chart, we are working on 3 days now inside of the previous bear candle day. wee.

going good mate. easier to read the moves. 12hr attached. looks like we'll hit 1.29 later or tomorrow hopefully

UJ hitting daily 20Ma

Dow off to a rough start.

Patiently waiting for price to get back to 2960.

.

Quarterly Outlook Q2 2013

On the FA side:

After breaking all time highs in equities with raging bulls and clearing another episode in the never ending European Debt Crisis drama we got left with only one key conclusion and factor in play for this Quarter: The clear and deep macroeconomic divergences between Europe and the US (and the rest if the world in general).

Macro numbers from Europe are key this quarter. Time is ticking fast and Europe is running out of time. If numbers don't start picking up as early as this Quarter things look set for a very nasty correction across the board. On the US, things are changing and improving fast. Mid and long term we are set for a very extended rally, however short term (+/-this Q), the current and any further rally is unsustainable with the largest economic and trading block in the world (Europe) dragging the world economy.

On interest rates, with inflation under control, FED looks set to keep monetary policy steady and without much changes, paying special attention to any changes in FED tone at the end of the Quarter as a trigger for the correction. Not expecting much from the ECB either, inflation under control and without any option for hike. However lots of noise asking for cuts on every interest decision as long numbers are poor but the odds are severely against the ECB breaking its mandate (to promote growth instead of controlling inflation.

The wild card is with the BOJ that in my view will keep playing the active roll in intervening and the the BOE (last Q with King ...yes finally) that lately it only acts like a mad cow so any bad numbers will only trigger more printing/QE and who cares about inflation policy ...

Risk factors to track, other than the now usual EZ debt "spasm" (only Italy left so clear where to look) and with German elections entering in full motion, nothing particularly important to track. Iran, North Korea, Syria and etc ...just the "same" business as usual from a trading perspective.

In simple words, expecting a usual macro number driven quarter not a risk one with all eyes on European macro numbers.

On the TA side:

 

1. Quarterly:

    

   1. Failed to break Resistance (1.334x) but managed to breach to HH (now we have LL and breach to HH) opening extended wide chop zone for this Q and prolly the next one too.
   2. Nothing to see or trade in this chart at these levels and like in any range environment only both "extremes" are worth tracking for the fade or break. 1.266x and 1.334x both wide open for this Q. Fading the ranges has priority but the juice is on the breaks. Staying sidelined in this chart until further data.

1. Monthly:

    

   1. Confirmed fresh R at 1.358x and the close below 1.287x opened 1.266x. The easy part of the retrace is gone and only a break below 1.266x will trigger fresh momentum and it will cause collateral damage to the uptrend making monthly also HH and LL (will mean a guarantee chop zone for a few months and a noisy range in mid term charts).
      
   2. Nothing to see to the long side until 1.298x. A break open key 1.334x, above to 1.398x needs a break and is locked now. To the other side nothing tradable in this TF without a break 1.266x for a fast play to 1.244x.

1. Weekly:

    

   1. Downtrend holding steady but in a very unhealthy slope. Risk + knee jerk reaction + all FA aligned to one side.
      
   2. 1.294x for a chance 1.264x at least (a break will open air to 1.244x) while a direct move to 1.266x without retrace will open 1.334x with a intermediate stop 1.316x but need FA trigger first (tracking ECB).

1. Daily:

    

   1. Overextended and downtrend looks exhausted. Looks very poor r:r entering short at these levels. Two trades in play
      
   2. The pure and only technical play in this chart comes first with a short squeeze from a test of lows to at least 1.294x that is very tradable with intraday/daily and can become in a swing play with ECB support to 1.318x.
      
   3. The continuation which has a very poor r:r at these levels with 1.285x holding daily for a test 1.271x and 1.263x if taken. This one is way too risky in my books so not for my taste and I would skip from a daily chart perspective.

1. Intraday:

    

   1. All bears and yesterday with 1/2 of the trading world still on holiday failed to crack 1.285x opening a new test of lows for a test of nake 1.271x. To the other side nothing tradable as long as 1.285x hold with daily. Easy an clear options there. Short intraday for the continuation, long with the daily/h4 rejection combo for the squeeze. Both sides tradable and with excellent r:r.

The usual charts update (Q/M/W). GL all this quarter.

sisse

Elliott Wave EUR USD

[quote=sisse;6564936]Quarterly Outlook Q2 2013 On the FA side: After breaking all time highs in equities with raging bulls and clearing another episode in the never ending European Debt Crisis drama we got left with only one key conclusion and factor in play for this Quarter: The clear and deep macroeconomic divergences between Europe and the US (and the rest if the world in general). Macro numbers from Europe are key this quarter. Time is ticking fast and Europe is running out of time.

Welcome back mate , I trust you had a good break, decent weather and a few cold ones included

Thanks for the update , as usual appreciated and noted

Flawless entry. Let's see how it pans out.


Heh, I can't remember the last time I actually entered a trade via a market order. Limits are where it's at.

Why I put the order where I did.

Stop bragging please.

I could not find a decent setup to trade today.

It is bad for my self-image to look at your chart