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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #221
  • Mar 29, 2013 4:30am Mar 29, 2013 4:30am
Quoting smikester
Hi 100 pips and thanks for your thread. I notice you started the thread with lots of fundamental reading while presenting a technical method and although I see nothing wrong with the combined approach I wonder if you are gaining confidence in the technical side of the strategy now?

I share your reservations about Yen pairs and agree the long term weakness of the Yen sentiment, but maybe they are due a correction of at least 38% which would take us to about 115 in the case of Eur/Jpy?
Hi Smikester,

I still follow market fundamentals very closely but it is often times very hard to trade using fundamentals as the "timing" part is almost impossible!

So I have decided to stick to this technical system and let the SL or TP targets get met before closing out the trades. It seems to actually work better leaving the system alone and results have been above average from what I can tell.

Whenever something interesting is brought to my attention I will try and share it with this thread but as of right now I am trying to help the select few that are following this strategy to understand how to trade without any problems as far as entry points, SL and TP targets, as well as the more profitable trending pairs that work with this system.

From what I can tell there are a few here who have started to understand and trade this system and will experience excellent results this year if they stick to it!

By the way, I have 117.60 and 115.20 as significant support for EUR/JPY from a weekly perspective. 115 would be nice for my current short positions!
  • #222
  • Mar 29, 2013 6:00am Mar 29, 2013 6:00am
i got out of my chfjpy short trade at break even. i decided yesterday i wanted to come out, set stop at BE and overnight got me out. didnt like the way it was moving, wasnt corresponding with other technical stuff.


only one trade open at the moment. audcad short. hoping the weekly bar will close an engulfing one. but from what i can see today so far it may not. in which case i will have to reassess the situation next week.

will look at chfjpy again mid next week as well.


  • #223
  • Mar 29, 2013 6:44am Mar 29, 2013 6:44am
Quoting 100PipsADay
As you know the Third Screen Strategy is a trend strategy so it is important to trade pairs that trend nicely.

EUR/AUD & GBP/AUD: Both of these pairs trend very nicely and have a good average daily range.

AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, & EUR/JPY: Most JPY Cross pairs trend nicely and some tend to respect support / resistance better than others. These 4 pairs are my favorite JPY cross pairs to trade.

EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, & AUD/NZD: These are last on my list of favorite trending pairs to trade.


[b]If I could pick only...

Hi 100Pip. Looks like JPY pairs are looking like it's flipping to the downside on the weekly. Should provide strong confirmation of a downtrend. Some have already flipped again to the downside on the daily. Do you see the same thing? Also wonder if you move your trade to BE when you are up as TP hasn't hit yet? If you do, how many pips in profit b4 you do so? Thanks 100pip.

Have a Happy Easter weekend.
  • #224
  • Mar 29, 2013 11:52am Mar 29, 2013 11:52am


HAPPY EASTER to all.
  • #225
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:27pm Mar 29, 2013 7:27pm
100pips, i have a question as i am a bit confused. Please see my attachment.

This is AUDJPY Daily.

Price is above EMA.
MACD says to sell

What to do?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-29_2024.png Size: 136 KB
  • #226
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:31pm Mar 29, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
Hi 100Pip. Looks like JPY pairs are looking like it's flipping to the downside on the weekly. Should provide strong confirmation of a downtrend. Some have already flipped again to the downside on the daily. Do you see the same thing? Also wonder if you move your trade to BE when you are up as TP hasn't hit yet? If you do, how many pips in profit b4 you do so? Thanks 100pip.

Have a Happy Easter weekend.
Hey MKFXTrader,

As for the JPY pairs I got burned about a month ago or so trying to "pick the top" in such a strong uptrend but as of right now I am confident with my sell positions. However, fundamentally speaking I am still bullish on all of the JPY cross pairs for the mid to long-term.

I don't move any trades to break even at any point in time. I wait for either SL or TP to get hit. It seems to work better for this particular strategy as both ways have been tested.
  • #227
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:36pm Mar 29, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting irampagemc
100pips, i have a question as i am a bit confused. Please see my attachment.

This is AUDJPY Daily.

Price is above EMA.
MACD says to sell

What to do?

Good question. The 20 EMA and 50 EMA don't really have anything to do with the Third Screen Strategy system. However, normally when price is above both the 20 and 50 EMA price is bullish and if price is below both of the EMA's then it is more than likely bearish.

This is a risky trade to short in my opinion even though the Third Screen Strategy is telling us to sell.

There are other pairs that may provide a little better opportunity at this time if you don't want to chance selling AUD/JPY as price is still above both EMA's. Ultimately the choice is up to you.

You might want to look at possible shorts with EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/CAD, or AUD/NZD as they are all showing bearish signs on the D1 MACD. Just wait for H1 to show over bought using Williams %, of course there are no guarantees but I am confident with those trades listed above. Happy trading!
  • #228
  • Mar 29, 2013 9:02pm Mar 29, 2013 9:02pm
audcad. weekly candle at close was NOT engulfing. so not a strong sell signal orstart of reverse trend as i had hoped.
  • #229
  • Mar 29, 2013 10:10pm Mar 29, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting whatfx
audcad. weekly candle at close was NOT engulfing. so not a strong sell signal orstart of reverse trend as i had hoped.
AUD/CAD

You are right that we have not seen our weekly BEEB (bearish engulfing bar) that we had hoped for, however, we are near all time resistance and have a solid sell signal with Third Screen Strategy system so it is still a valid sell signal when looking at it from this thread's perspective.
  • #230
  • Mar 29, 2013 10:33pm Mar 29, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
AUD/CAD

You are right that we have not seen our weekly BEEB (bearish engulfing bar) that we had hoped for, however, we are near all time resistance and have a solid sell signal with Third Screen Strategy system so it is still a valid sell signal when looking at it from this thread's perspective.
Hi 100PipsADay,
What indicator do you use to find Support and Resistance? In your given template file I didnot find anything for S/R.

Thanks again Sir.
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #231
  • Mar 30, 2013 1:29am Mar 30, 2013 1:29am
Quoting khaled_ctg
Hi 100PipsADay,
What indicator do you use to find Support and Resistance? In your given template file I didnot find anything for S/R.

Thanks again Sir.
There is no indicator that I know of to map out monthly and weekly areas of support / resistance...

If you want to learn more about Price Action Support Resistance (PASR) then start here: http://www.stratsforextrading.com/dokuwiki/doku.php
  • #232
  • Mar 30, 2013 7:43am Mar 30, 2013 7:43am
Quoting 100PipsADay
There is no indicator that I know of to map out monthly and weekly areas of support / resistance...

If you want to learn more about Price Action Support Resistance (PASR) then start here: http://www.stratsforextrading.com/dokuwiki/doku.php
Thanks for the resource. While putting SL or TP do you consider S/R or just put 160 SL and 280 TP as per "Third Screen Strategy's" rules?
Again while opening a position should we consider S/R or stick as per "Third Screen Strategy" rules? Which one you prefer?
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #233
  • Mar 30, 2013 11:13am Mar 30, 2013 11:13am
Quoting khaled_ctg
Thanks for the resource. While putting SL or TP do you consider S/R or just put 160 SL and 280 TP as per "Third Screen Strategy's" rules?
Again while opening a position should we consider S/R or stick as per "Third Screen Strategy" rules? Which one you prefer?
***I would suggest only focusing on the Third Screen Strategy at this point in time***

Recommended Pairs To Trade: EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY

D1 MACD: Bullish or Bearish

H1 Williams %: Wait for "over sold" or "over bought" conditions before placing trade

Max Positions Per Currency Pair: 4

Stop Loss: 160 Pips

Take Profit: 280 Pips


Keep positions opened until stop loss or take profit target has been reached, no matter what!

Do not do anything else until you have traded this system for 6 months using this strategy on the above mentioned pairs. This system is simple and powerful, do not complicate it any more than you need to.
  • #234
  • Mar 30, 2013 11:18am Mar 30, 2013 11:18am
Quoting 100PipsADay
***I would suggest only focusing on the Third Screen Strategy at this point in time***

Recommended Pairs To Trade: EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY

D1 MACD: Bullish or Bearish

H1 Williams %: Wait for "over sold" or "over bought" conditions before placing trade

Max Positions Per Currency Pair: 4

Stop Loss: 160 Pips

Take Profit: 280 Pips


Keep positions opened until stop loss or take profit target has been reached, no matter what!

Do not do anything else...
OK Thank You Sir. Now and on I'll stick with "Third Screen Strategy". Lets see the outcome.
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #235
  • Mar 30, 2013 3:32pm Mar 30, 2013 3:32pm
So this is all i would need my display to look like!

I will begin from monday!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-30_1632.png Size: 84 KB
  • #236
  • Mar 31, 2013 12:34am Mar 31, 2013 12:34am
Quoting irampagemc
So this is all i would need my display to look like! I will begin from monday!
EUR/CAD

D1 MACD is Bearish
H1 %R remains in Over Bought area.
Its time to enter short EUR/CAD, isn't it?
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #237
  • Mar 31, 2013 12:38am Mar 31, 2013 12:38am
And also AUD/JPY and AUD/CAD.
KISS - Keep It Simple Smart !!!!
  • #238
  • Mar 31, 2013 6:53am Mar 31, 2013 6:53am
Respected 100PipsADay........ whether in system of three screens it is possible to use the Stochastic Oscillator indicator? After all the author of strategy Helder used Stochastic, instead of %R......
  • #239
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:36am Mar 31, 2013 8:36am
100,


Thanks again for all the great information you post for our enlightenment! You are very generous and it is greatly appreciated.

If you don't mind, I have a question...Your system of trading is very methodical and very powerful as a result, no doubt about it. One element I did not see mentioned in the first posting describing the system is Value via using the Midas indicator (VWAP). The Midas book, (have not read it yet, just ordered it and it will be my next project) which is primarily about the use of VWAP, talks about Elders Triple Screen system. Is Midas something you once considered and eliminated? I use the term Value a lot as it is really what Forex is all about, trading the Arbitrage of price divergence back into Value or taking a position of Value and trading away from it to a maximum of divergence. Considering that the largest traders tend to do the same (push the market to a point of value for themselves before taking a true position in the market) and use VWAP in trading algorithms, I am of the mind that thinks it would behoove me as a small time player to incorporate that element strongly in my personal trading style. So I am curious if this element is something you have used/use/experimented/tossed out the window.

Thanks,

sjc
  • #240
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:45am Mar 31, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Coondawg71
100, Thanks again for all the great information you post for our enlightenment! You are very generous and it is greatly appreciated. If you don't mind, I have a question...Your system of trading is very methodical and very powerful as a result, no doubt about it. One element I did not see mentioned in the first posting describing the system is Value via using the Midas indicator (VWAP). The Midas book, (have not read it yet, just ordered it and it will be my next project) which is primarily about the use of VWAP, talks about Elders Triple Screen...
Hi CoonDawg,

To be completely honest I have no knowledge or experience whatsoever with the use of VWAP. I will have to check out the book mentioned above. Thanks for sharing.
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