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Money flows: Trading the strongest / weakest major currency cross

  • #141
  • Mar 28, 2013 4:51pm Mar 28, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting unknown4x
Do that. You will need lots of screen time + experimentation on what suites you best / makes it as easy + quick as possible for you depending on the timeframe.

Remember, the synthetics help you get an instant "hotspot" where you should look deeper but then make use of the real major/minors there to get the exact information. I explained it in the why indices are right & wrong section.
A few question for you when you have the time. As you can see in the attached pic, I have my indexes that I've created. With regards to understanding the flow, would you recommend just looking at a view similar to what I have posted in the picture along with various charts? Do you think I need to be looking at the regular crosses more so than the synthetics?

I recall you not being a huge advocate of the 'heatmap' type of outlook, but would you think that organizing the data from the synthetics in some type of tabular form would be useful in any way?

More along the line of custom synthetics beyond the type you create with the basic formulas and weighting..... do you see any value in historical moving averages with various lookback periods of the synthetics being useful? Or is that all just mostly past data that is unlikely to have a bearing on the future behavior?
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  • #142
  • Mar 28, 2013 5:01pm Mar 28, 2013 5:01pm
Regarding the post above, you can't disseminate data when you look at singularities / stacks separately; you have to have a currency comparison which all have a common start point, perhaps week open, day open or year open.

By then looking at the pairs with the most divergence, that's where the 'money flow' is occurring.

This thread does baffle me as it seems too complicated what you're doing with all the maths i've seen, there's no need...KISS.

From this tool, here's 5 minute data from earlier today...

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Edit: Just read this paragraph which makes as much sense as triple integral calculus...

Quote
If you got your CHF index with CHFUSD 2.05% (random value) and your pricefeed just got USDCHF then all you do is invert USDCHF which gives you CHFUSD. Now that you already got CHFUSD you will of course not change the percentage since your percentage _is for_ CHFUSD. If you negate the power that is the same as 1 / x so by negating your percentage power you keep the percentage (as it should be) but negate the underlying value (convert USDCHF to CHFUSD).
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #143
  • Mar 28, 2013 5:43pm Mar 28, 2013 5:43pm
Quoting FiatFap
Regarding the post above, you can't disseminate data when you look at singularities / stacks separately; you have to have a currency comparison which all have a common start point, perhaps week open, day open or year open.

By then looking at the pairs with the most divergence, that's where the 'money flow' is occurring.

This thread does baffle me as it seems too complicated what you're doing with all the maths i've seen, there's no need...KISS.

From this tool, here's 5 minute...

Just because you don't understand (or want to) something does not mean it is not worth being understood. Please refrain from advertising the same useless tool over and over again that one can use in a better quality in many places and has been programmed as an indicator for most platforms a million times. Especially since you want to profit from it with your requirements for people to hand them over their private data to you.

I have already explained (and other members seem to understand that very well) why this tool is at max a supportive tool but cannot be used efficiently the way it is being marketed (train has not just left the station but already arrived at the destination)

Thank you.
  • #144
  • Mar 28, 2013 5:59pm Mar 28, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting unknown4x
Just because you don't understand (or want to) something does not mean it is not worth being understood. Please refrain from advertising the same useless tool over and over again that one can use in a better quality in many places and has been programmed as an indicator for most platforms a million times. Especially since you want to profit from it with your requirements for people to hand them over their private data to you.

I have already explained (and other members seem to understand that very well) why this tool is at max a supportive tool...
Easy tiger, no need to throw your toys out of the pram.

I read your post about missing data and it is indeed an MT4 anomaly where candles aren't drawn for volumeless data, here's an excellent EA that populates data so you have 100% data integrity. I then created a .NET that copies these off-line charts so i can import them into my charts, but my useless tools probably won't float your boat.

Perhaps you could incorporate the ea code into the indy you use, to smooth out the currencies.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #145
  • Mar 28, 2013 6:05pm Mar 28, 2013 6:05pm
Quoting forrestang
A few question for you when you have the time. As you can see in the attached pic, I have my indexes that I've created. With regards to understanding the flow, would you recommend just looking at a view similar to what I have posted in the picture along with various charts? Do you think I need to be looking at the regular crosses more so than the synthetics?

I recall you not being a huge advocate of the 'heatmap' type of outlook, but would you think that organizing the data from the synthetics in some type of tabular form would be useful in...
On the run. Will answer you tomorrow.

Everyone happy easter n stuff

Inserted Video
  • #146
  • Mar 28, 2013 6:08pm Mar 28, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting FiatFap
Easy tiger, no need to throw your toys out of the pram.

I read your post about missing data and it is indeed an MT4 anomaly where candles aren't drawn for volumeless data, here's an excellent EA that populates data so you have 100% data integrity. I then created a .NET that copies these off-line charts so i can import them into my charts, but my useless tools probably won't float your boat.

Perhaps you could incorporate the ea code into the indy you use, to smooth out the currencies.
Not using MT at all. The moment MT draws a candle my order is long at a real counterparty.
  • #147
  • Mar 28, 2013 9:20pm Mar 28, 2013 9:20pm
Quoting FiatFap
Regarding the post above, you can't disseminate data when you look at singularities / stacks separately; you have to have a currency comparison which all have a common start point, perhaps week open, day open or year open.

Just as something to mention, one of the iterations I came up along the last few weeks messing around with this idea was something similar to what you mentioned. At least with respect to picking an anchoring point to measure from.

Here you see an average of individual strengths plotted along an axis, starting over each day @ 00:00GMT, and plotting with an average the length of the Opening Range for a 24 hour forex market.

Just inspecting it visually seemed like inverted strengths moved in general the direction of the main move each day for various crosses.
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  • #148
  • Mar 28, 2013 9:53pm Mar 28, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting forrestang
Here you see an average of individual strengths plotted along an axis, starting over each day @ 00:00GMT, and plotting with an average the length of the Opening Range for a 24 hour forex market.

Just inspecting it visually seemed like inverted strengths moved in general the direction of the main move each day for various crosses.
I like your thinking, it would be great to superimpose those daily moves and show them in an extra dimension. It then reminded me of this beautiful bloomberg terminal screenshot

Attached Image
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #149
  • Mar 28, 2013 10:04pm Mar 28, 2013 10:04pm
Going to post this, if anything, just to annoy unknown4x

It shows momentum since week open and we can see eur (green) and chf (pink) are the weakest, but interestingly, GBP (blue) and AUD have just crossed over...hmmm.

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Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #150
  • Edited Mar 29, 2013 10:09am Mar 28, 2013 11:49pm | Edited Mar 29, 2013 10:09am
Quoting FiatFap
Going to post this, if anything, just to annoy unknown4x

It shows momentum since week open and we can see eur (green) and chf (pink) are the weakest, but interestingly, GBP (blue) and AUD have just crossed over...hmmm.
I have some similar charts, but seems like the problem is being able to identify the breakout before it occurs or as it has recently begun. By the time you look up, the divergence is usually pretty extended already. Seems like other tools are necessary.
  • #151
  • Mar 29, 2013 6:11am Mar 29, 2013 6:11am
Quoting FiatFap
Regarding the post above, you can't disseminate data when you look at singularities / stacks separately; you have to have a currency comparison which all have a common start point, perhaps week open, day open or year open.

By then looking at the pairs with the most divergence, that's where the 'money flow' is occurring.

This thread does baffle me as it seems too complicated what you're doing with all the maths i've seen, there's no need...KISS.

From this tool, here's 5 minute...


which indi is this ? can you attach it, and how does one use it ?
  • #152
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:35pm Mar 31, 2013 11:35pm
Quoting unknown4x
On the run. Will answer you tomorrow. Everyone happy easter n stuff http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2LTL8KgKv8
Along with THIS post, and figuring out what might be useful ways to organize data, I'll be looking at variations of this data.
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  • #153
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:15am Apr 8, 2013 3:15am
Quoting unknown4x
The inflows + USD / JPY flows are the most important thing you need. You really only need bonds/indices/equities for the larger trades. Even there it helps but it is not needed if you analyse all of your crosses the right way and wait for the right flows. All of the above are represented in the crosses. If you are playing the smaller tfs for a bunch of 20 pippers a day (which makes much more money than you could ever position trade anyways) then the currency flows are all you need. Make sure to really really understand USD + JPY + partly CHF flows...
Hi unknown4x,

If you dont mind, what resemblance is there between money flows and statistical arbitrage?
The way im seeing it, is you either bet with divergences or with convergences (more of differences as opposed to actual direction if you will)...

Seems to me betting on convergences gives a clearer direction as opposed to betting on the actual divergence ocurring. In a way like walking a dog on a lead. The dog lead is of a fixed length so as the dog walks from one extreme to the other he will inevitably cross the middle.

Betting on divergence = is the dog going to my left or to my right from the center?
Betting on convergence = once he gets to the extreme of my left (or my right) he inevitably will come back to the mean...unless the lead snaps

Just curious as you are very well versed on flows between currencies.

Regards
  • #154
  • Apr 9, 2013 2:49pm Apr 9, 2013 2:49pm
Weekend was a bit longer than planned Will answer later.

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  • #155
  • Edited 5:41pm May 2, 2013 3:52pm | Edited 5:41pm
Hey unknown, if you're still around, here's a question: I'd like to focus on just 3 Yen crosses for the time being--the AUD, EUR and GBP. I 'triangulate' each pair thusly: XU, UJ, XJ, with a separate chart with EURGBP, EURAUD and GBPAUD to determine which of the three is strongest/weakest. The screenshots should illustrate what I'm saying. Do you feel this provides enough information to make an informed trade decision or are there more factors to consider? Thanks in advance for your reply and advice.
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  • #156
  • Jul 2, 2013 2:13pm Jul 2, 2013 2:13pm
Hi unknown4x,
I just finished reading your thread and want to thank you so very much for sharing your knowledge about Forex Money Flows. I know this information will prove to be of great value to my trading going forward.
Be Blessed!
Andy
  • #157
  • Edited 12:36pm Oct 16, 2013 5:37am | Edited 12:36pm
Great thread !
I'm a huge fan of currency strength trading, with my own relevant indicators.
I also developed an EA that is working live on H1 in combination of pairs using this strategy, with great results (recent results posted on another thread).
There is also some logic in the selection of pairs that are alowed to be traded (account portfolio).

As to MAJOR and CROSS pairs - see attached chart for some more strength correlation:

G.
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  • #158
  • Oct 16, 2013 5:53am Oct 16, 2013 5:53am
Nice G!
  • #159
  • Oct 25, 2013 11:30am Oct 25, 2013 11:30am
Quoting gg53
Great thread ! I'm a huge fan of currency strength trading, with my own relevant indicators. I also developed an EA that is working live on H1 in combination of pairs using this strategy, with great results (recent results posted on another thread). There is also some logic in the selection of pairs that are alowed to be traded (account portfolio). As to MAJOR and CROSS pairs - see attached chart for some more strength correlation: G. {image}
Kindly share more on it gg53. Also attach a link to the results, if possible. Thanks.
  • #160
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:44am Jan 14, 2014 11:44am
Quoting gg53
Great thread ! I'm a huge fan of currency strength trading, with my own relevant indicators. I also developed an EA that is working live on H1 in combination of pairs using this strategy, with great results (recent results posted on another thread). There is also some logic in the selection of pairs that are alowed to be traded (account portfolio). As to MAJOR and CROSS pairs - see attached chart for some more strength correlation: G. {image}
Hello Bro,
Your indicator dashboad looks nice and promising, I like it as am also into currency strength trading, though I normally use excel spreadsheet. What is it called, can you share it/where can i get it?
Thank u
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