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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #3,521
  • Mar 28, 2013 1:36pm Mar 28, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting Fx3423454
Bob wouldn't you consider yourself an investor?

If you plan on holding on to long positions for a year or more that sounds a lot like an investor.

Even the IRS would basically consider you an investor, you probably couldn't even get trader tax status or even want it considering that if you hold an asset for 12 months or more you could be taxed at the lowest possible capital gains rate.

I think your opinions are valuable like everyone else's but you are an investor in my book not a trader.

I know life is an ongoing process of adaptation.

But,...



I wish I could add GBPJPY to my portfolio bahahha, its mentally there tho
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  • #3,522
  • Mar 28, 2013 1:49pm Mar 28, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting albchr
Oh what an exciting day!!! But It's been fun watching all the...oh it's going up...no it's going down chatter today....

Just to put a little perspective on it. We've had a WHOPPING 80 pip range and it's sitting at about open now. How can I contain my excitement??

The one thing I will say is, it seems we've had a fair amount of late day moves this month. Perhaps today will give us some? Doubt it but maybe...lol
I think we have had it for the week, no important news anymore this week.

I'm just scalping a little bit.
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  • #3,523
  • Mar 28, 2013 1:51pm Mar 28, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting netera
The last hour closed above the 50 ema in my chart ? Does this have a specific meaning ?
Not as much as you may think. Remember that "location" relative to support and resistance is important as well. And there are other factors as well.

Take a look here on this 1H at the highlighted bars. I won't go too far back but, you can see where a 1H bar closed above the 50 and what happened. The first marked 1H bar closed just over the resistance of the 61.8% fib. It went up some, fell back down to what's now support, dropped a bit below but price "closed" above support for three 1H bars and then the second marked 1H bar closed above both support AND the 50ema. Then it fell from the sky right? The third marked 1H bar closed over the 50ema in between the 61.8% and 50% fibs and then fell again.

This last one closed over the 50ema but still below the 50% fib. It may go up a bit more but keeping the immediate "short term" down trend in mind, I don't think it's much concern right now.

Try to keep in mind that MA's are visual "filters" that are really meant to draw our eye and attention to a "potential" move. It's not a sure thing. I put far more faith in horizontal SR and TL's myself. Notice that TL and where the 100ema (orange) are? I'll look there for a bounce if it get's there.

Can you post charts so we can see what you're looking at? It may help us, help you
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,524
  • Mar 28, 2013 1:57pm Mar 28, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I'm just scalping a little bit.
Must be a VERY little bit....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,525
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:06pm Mar 28, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Look for 143.19 very soon....

I really want 145 by the end of the week but tomorrow being a bank holiday I highly doubt any big moves...Unless Kuroda says some interesting things tonight..


He knows that when his meeting starts the jpy pairs will go ballistic, that being the reason for him not trying to hurt the yen too much until then.

would be nice if we would attempt to hit that today

Something I have been watching on the daily, whenever we have a series of wicks in mini downtrends it usually reverses.
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  • #3,526
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:10pm Mar 28, 2013 2:10pm
hey netera...did you catch that sentence....he was short at that price......gonna end the trade....hopefully at be= break even....
  • #3,527
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:12pm Mar 28, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting BobGnarly
would be nice if we would attempt to hit that today

Something I have been watching on the daily, whenever we have a series of wicks in mini downtrends it usually reverses.
Heck, I called for the DP at 143.16 yesterday while holding these shorts bro. It never made it there but I don't see the significance of 3 pips more today?
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  • #3,528
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:14pm Mar 28, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting albchr
Must be a VERY little bit....
See now why I closed shorts? I was afraid this would be happening, trading above 143.00.

It might not come under 143 again this week.
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  • #3,529
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:14pm Mar 28, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
hey netera...did you catch that sentence....he was short at that price......gonna end the trade....hopefully at be= break even....
Who do you mean ?
  • #3,530
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:15pm Mar 28, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting albchr
Heck, I called for the DP at 143.16 yesterday while holding these shorts bro. It never made it there but I don't see the significance of 3 pips more today?


It was the price that provided the most resistance before this recent fall, I am really looking for a close above that to really call a reversal. I have nothing against anyone being short, I also played shorts in my mini account. My main account tho is just for sniping the perfect entry on a big trend..


And I want nothing more then to let this F*&%$# run for 2 years....
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  • #3,531
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:21pm Mar 28, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting KillerWhale
See now why I closed shorts? I was afraid this would be happening, trading above 143.00.

It might not come under 143 again this week.
Nope, I don't but hey, that's just me. I don't get spooked by a few pips on the Beast bro.

Let's see what happens when it hit's the TL and 100ema in my last 1H chart post. Whoops....bouncing as I type...
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  • #3,532
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:25pm Mar 28, 2013 2:25pm
Moving up on decreasing volume, theory says that is likely a false move.
  • #3,533
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:26pm Mar 28, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting BobGnarly
It was the price that provided the most resistance before this recent fall, I am really looking for a close above that to really call a reversal. I have nothing against anyone being short, I also played shorts in my mini account. My main account tho is just for sniping the perfect entry on a big trend..


And I want nothing more then to let this F*&%$# run for 2 years....
Ahh...I see. So a close above 143.19 means a reversal for you? Interesting. And I didn't think you had anything against those shorting. Don't know if I gave you that impression somehow?? But I wouldn't have meant to.
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  • #3,534
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:28pm Mar 28, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting albchr
Ahh...I see. So a close above 143.19 means a reversal for you? Interesting. And I didn't think you had anything against those shorting. Don't know if I gave you that impression somehow?? But I wouldn't have meant to.


No, not you bro, Just seems when your bias is different than the threads there is some tension, but what ever.. I see it as an important barrier and a close above it would likely be the floor for the next up move passed 145.50
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  • #3,535
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:37pm Mar 28, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting blobsaudio
Moving up on decreasing volume, theory says that is likely a false move.
I've heard that as well. Wonder how true it is assuming volume can even be relied on. As far as I know, it really can't be determined accurately. I mean I can see my brokers volume, but that's a very thin slice in a very large pie.
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  • #3,536
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:45pm Mar 28, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting BobGnarly
No, not you bro, Just seems when your bias is different than the threads there is some tension, but what ever.. I see it as an important barrier and a close above it would likely be the floor for the next up move passed 145.50
I have no bias myself. As far as the thread it seems equally split to me with some bouncing back and forth...LOL

I'm just following price best I can. But, when it was up at 144ish you felt the same way about it hitting 145.50 no?

Anyway, I'm almost tempted to add shorts here. On the 4H we have the mid channel line, 50 and 100ema's and the TL it just bounced off. On the 1H we have the top channel, 100ema and TL. Hmmm....If this hour should close below the 50% again, it would make a nice pin.
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  • #3,537
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:55pm Mar 28, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting albchr
I've heard that as well. Wonder how true it is assuming volume can even be relied on. As far as I know, it really can't be determined accurately. I mean I can see my brokers volume, but that's a very thin slice in a very large pie.
I thought volume was derived from the number ticks, which would be as good as the brokers feed wouldn't it?

Not a volume user myself, just know the basic theory behind it.
  • #3,538
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:55pm Mar 28, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting albchr
I have no bias myself. As far as the thread it seems equally split to me with some bouncing back and forth...LOL

I'm just following price best I can. But, when it was up at 144ish you felt the same way about it hitting 145.50 no?

Anyway, I'm almost tempted to add shorts here. On the 4H we have the mid channel line, 50 and 100ema's and the TL it just bounced off. On the 1H we have the top channel, 100ema and TL. Hmmm....If this hour should close below the 50% again, it would make a nice pin.

Yes I did call that and I said by the end of the week, but Doesn't seem possible for this week, but ya never know. My monthly outlook is extremely bullish... Daily for the last 2 weeks has been neutral to slight downtrend, same as weekly. I say lots of levels and calls that I probably shouldn't, I just get bored lol...

This is a complete fundamental trade for me, nothing else.. It is nice to see the ema crossover on the monthly as well, to confirm. Japans economy will be entering a 10-15 year slow down.
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  • #3,539
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:55pm Mar 28, 2013 2:55pm
This pair loves the 50ema on the daily chart, there is always some sort of reaction when price hits it or is near it, take a look below.
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  • #3,540
  • Mar 28, 2013 3:02pm Mar 28, 2013 3:02pm
1st hourly close above 143 in 33 hours
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