Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Up +3 today

Woke up this morning to this - my tp was 50 pips, my r-multiple was 4.6, increased my equity by 2%. My probability of success on this trade 80%.

If you look closely at the stat box you will notice some changes. I have pointed out stats that I focus on. Why do I focus on these stats? I can adjust my TP so I am able to get longer runs per trade with minimal risk.

Ok so the highlights didn't come through. I focus on Breakout average and individual trades win ratio %.

Hey guy, i suggest test on Alpari UK or NZ, cause they have a nice history in m15. 2 month, mean 60 day. So we can watch a big picture

What is it you want to test?

I still learn to increase win ratio, but still nothing. Keep testing
1 head, nothing. But many head, we can move a moutain

The mountain has already been moved - read the thread and you will find that is the case.

Yeah but i saw you guy test on just 15-30 day. Is it enough? Just saying
Can you point specific page so i can reduce my time. Don't get me wrong, i know reading is important, but i already read 130 page and still find nothing

Here you go, that post covers everything you need to know.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5811021#post5811021

130 pages - wow you have a ways to go - When you read are you just reading or are you thinking about the post? It's easy to just read the thread, thinking about each post and how it relates to how you want to trade - now that is the work. For the short time frame on my last post, I duplicated a chart posted by FH as a learning process. You may want to work at duplicating posted charts and see if you can get close, then ask yourself why those settings and do they work for me. If you had read the thread you would know that I mainly trade 4 hour charts which gives me an even bigger picture than 100 days on a 15 minute chart. I posted the 15 min GU chart to be in integrity with the thread. That is asked of us in the first couple of pages of this thread. You may want to go back and re-read the first page - from the point of view that everything you know about trading is wrong. SSBO is not the holy grail - it just teach's one how to trade one way.

Altos, seems like you need a refresher:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6462829#post6462829

Yes, I know exactly what you mean. I was thinking of that very post you refer me to when I wrote that. Matter of fact I am up at 3 am realising that phrase was going to cause me strife and checking that it appears to be a different issue. I would not have set up those parameters. There is a very strange anomally that I need to show xux and yourself. Fortunately I have screenshots showing it which illustrate what occured. If I can keep my eyes open I will send the info shortly or in my morning which is only a few hours away. Need a cup of tea right now. I will PM.

Update from yesterday, EURGBP broke south for 20 pips.

Altos, this isn't directly aimed at you dude I just thought it was an opportune post to mention something about my trading journal which rang a bell in my heed when i read your post.

Within my trading journal (an excel spreadsheet) I colour code cells between wins and losses in my pip value column, it's a simple visual aid which I added specifically for these occassions. When I see fluctuations in my win % I can look at my journal and see whats dropped off the front without analysing any figures, just colours, at a glance I can also see the distribution over longer periods of time of significant continuous wins, interspersed with smaller runs of losses (I graph my accumulation of pips too).
Why do I do this? (other than being an analytical freak)

Well, if you check your sample size on the first chart it shows 40 trades in 100 days, this is a small sample, and is the reason why you see such large fluctuations in your win %'s it's even more pronounced on recovery 1,2,3,4, & 5 because each time the sample gets smaller. But over time this sample will build up into a more significant size (but only in your trading journal, not on your charts). The bigger the size, the less fluctuation there will be and a more accurate picture of your win ratio will emerge. By the way if your running multiple accounts you either need to identify the account in your journal or keep a seperate journal for each account. I even keep my pairs in seperate worksheets within my journal.

Other stuff I either do now or plan as enhancements are :- count the number of consecutive wins and losses in each 'run' so when my sample is big enough I can look at my journal and calculate probabilities such as after 3 consecutive losses what is the probability of a 4th. (I hope you can see why I would do this). I keep a record of not just the date but the weekday as well for similar reasons, I keep a colour coded record of what market session the trade was entered (oddly i dont with the exit). Eventually when my sample size is big enough I can use the info, combine fields and use a macro to turn the info into something like a heat map. When I start trading more than the initial breakout I will be enhancing my journal to include a column to tell me which trades within the set won and lost. A lot of you will think this is overanalysis, I tend to agree but it stops me looking at charts thinking 'oooh that looks like it's going to take out my SL i'll exit early' only to see it hit where my TP was several hours later. Basically what i'm saying is analysis gives me confidence in SSBO, confidence dramatically reduces incidences of interference in trades, seducing interference increases profits.

AAARGGHHH!

Until I got sidetracked with my last post i was watching the attached chart, which has since broken out and given a signal but the sound is turned off on my laptop. Oh well, next time I'll post when theres no cz's in sight.

Oh wow HX, I haven't compiled a spreadsheet in years, early 90's. SuperCalc 4 was my prefered and then Lotus 123. Never used Excel much. There are a few sites such as MyFXBook which give various levels of breakdown but I had not thought of the possibility of analysing SSBO trades. Maybe have to put such into practice after Easter. There is food for thought on that same as Sedona contemplating his journal - back to the chart.

Watching AUD JPY....

Nice one on GA

I was in that one at the same entry point, but exited after a couple of hours, for 3 pips (woo hoo) it was too choppy for me that price action!


Ben

EURUSD 61 bars by 25 pips....

I had it up close for a real fright just the one day on the screen. I am enuring myself to my feelings and just following the rules. Was on demo also but I very much treat it as real. There are good recovery stats on it but I know full well it might hit me one day - on real that is.