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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #3,381
  • Mar 27, 2013 2:50pm Mar 27, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I have no clue what a mooch is, but then, English is my second language.
Here
Attached Image
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  • #3,382
  • Mar 27, 2013 2:50pm Mar 27, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting albchr
Oh crap, now I'm afraid to ask where you put your SL this time...

But then I figure since it seems ours are always within 5 to 20 pips of each other, it doesn't much matter.
I saw yours... mine is lower.
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  • #3,383
  • Mar 27, 2013 2:54pm Mar 27, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting albchr
Yep, I'm holding my third shot off for a bit. I can see this possibly extending back to the DP at 143.16 or even a touch more. If so, the sniper lies in wait.

EDIT: Never had an 800 on the hourly. Hmmmm...interesting stuff happens when they cross.
I keep the 50, 200, and 800 emas on all TFs. For visual ease, I color them green, yellow, and red (just like a stop light)

You'll start to notice patterns with them across different pairs. Some like to find support at the 200ema while others tend to stick to the 50. Regardless, 800ema is quite slow and when you get one of these crossing over it, it's generally significant.

Honestly, for me the 50 crossing the 800 is just confirmation of the 50 crossing the 200. A lot of the times, if you wait for the 50 over the 800, you can miss a large part of the move (especially when trading against the overall trend, which is essentially what we're doing right now).

I mentioned it the other day that we had a 50/200 cross over, and sure enough, there were pips to be had to the downside. More to come I hope
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  • #3,384
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:10pm Mar 27, 2013 3:10pm
Daily chart: obviously bearish

Hey my icon for attachment isn't there.
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  • #3,385
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:11pm Mar 27, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Daily chart: obviously bearish

Hey my icon for attachment isn't there.
Oh I found it,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-d1-oanda-corporation.png Size: 45 KB
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  • #3,386
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:13pm Mar 27, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Oh I found it,
Who knows, we might even go to the 136 area
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  • #3,387
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:24pm Mar 27, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Oh I found it,
Haha, that's pretty much the exact same chart I have drawn... just different colors
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  • #3,388
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:29pm Mar 27, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting Geppy
Haha, that's pretty much the exact same chart I have drawn... just different colors
Imagine that...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_daily.gif Size: 22 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,389
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:31pm Mar 27, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting Geppy
Haha, that's pretty much the exact same chart I have drawn... just different colors
genius minds
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  • #3,390
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:32pm Mar 27, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting Geppy
It depends on how you look at it (like most things in trading).

On one hand... yes, we've bounced here before. So it could be a good risk/reward to take longs with the thinking that we'll bounce here again.

On the other hand... take a look at your chart. It's clear we've been making lower highs since our failure to get above 146 on the 15th and even more clearly since our failure to get above 145 on the 20th/21st. The question now becomes: how long can this support hold.

It definitely feels like it's weakening and the short-term line of least...
There was a fair bit of wick on the 4hr candle when it closed but still good enough for me, providing price gets above 142.975, preferably into 143 by 10pm GMT. That would be a nice bounce in my opinion, how far it manages to go after that is a bit harder to work out.

One note of interest about today's low was it being higher than on the 25th.
  • #3,391
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:40pm Mar 27, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting blobsaudio

One note of interest about today's low was it being higher than on the 25th.
It definitely was a bit higher... but that's a nasty wick on the 4h candle on the 25th. Wicks are always a bit "weaker" in my mind than a full close. Even if you look at the 1h, you'll see we actually had a lower 1h close than we did on the 25th.
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  • #3,392
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:41pm Mar 27, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting Geppy
I keep the 50, 200, and 800 emas on all TFs. For visual ease, I color them green, yellow, and red (just like a stop light)

You'll start to notice patterns with them across different pairs. Some like to find support at the 200ema while others tend to stick to the 50. Regardless, 800ema is quite slow and when you get one of these crossing over it, it's generally significant.

Honestly, for me the 50 crossing the 800 is just confirmation of the 50 crossing the 200. A lot of the times, if you wait for the 50 over the 800, you can miss a large...
I keep the 55, 100, 200 (ema & sma on the 200) on all of them. I also look for the 55/200 cross. But looking back over time at that 800 when it confirms it could be thousands of pips. But yeah I see what you mean about not waiting for the 800. The 200 is the trigger, the 800 means bulls eye. However like any other MA, where it occurs around SR is important too. Between 11/9/2012 and 11/15/2012 it fell below and then rose above due to hitting serious support at 125.60ish.

What's interesting is that was a perfect bounce off the 800 on the 4H chart on 11/13/2012. Right between those dates...lol

It hasn't been back on the 4H since. Take a look at where it is now. Just below the bottom of the last drop fib at 137.60ish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_4h.gif Size: 24 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,393
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:55pm Mar 27, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting Geppy
It definitely was a bit higher... but that's a nasty wick on the 4h candle on the 25th. Wicks are always a bit "weaker" in my mind than a full close. Even if you look at the 1h, you'll see we actually had a lower 1h close than we did on the 25th.
On my feed, actually 2 one hour closes below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_1h.gif Size: 26 KB
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  • #3,394
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:55pm Mar 27, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting albchr
I keep the 55, 100, 200 (ema & sma on the 200) on all of them. I also look for the 55/200 cross. But looking back over time at that 800 when it confirms it could be thousands of pips. But yeah I see what you mean about not waiting for the 800. The 200 is the trigger, the 800 means bulls eye. However like any other MA, where it occurs around SR is important too. Between 11/9/2012 and 11/15/2012 it fell below and then rose above due to hitting serious support at 125.60ish.

What's interesting is that was a perfect bounce off the 800 on the 4H...
Yeah, they are definitely all interesting to keep an eye on. But I agree, the trigger is that 50(5)/200 cross.
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  • #3,395
  • Mar 27, 2013 3:58pm Mar 27, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting albchr
On my feed, actually 2 one hour closes below.
Yep, I had the same... I just wasn't that specific in my post
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  • #3,396
  • Mar 27, 2013 4:16pm Mar 27, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting Geppy
Yep, I had the same... I just wasn't that specific in my post
LOL...I'm an old, pig headed, stubborn, meticulous German carpenter bro. Accuracy is KEY!
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  • #3,397
  • Mar 27, 2013 4:19pm Mar 27, 2013 4:19pm
Wow, you guys are finally out of your long bias.

Good for you.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #3,398
  • Mar 27, 2013 4:21pm Mar 27, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting Geppy
It definitely was a bit higher... but that's a nasty wick on the 4h candle on the 25th. Wicks are always a bit "weaker" in my mind than a full close. Even if you look at the 1h, you'll see we actually had a lower 1h close than we did on the 25th.
Never looked at large wicks like that, something I will go take a look at when I get time. It is a no lose position for me now (I did finally enter in the end), I have a rather tight SL which has been paid for by sacrificing one open position. I didn't see trading against the more experienced traders in this thread as the best sign in the world.
  • #3,399
  • Mar 27, 2013 4:26pm Mar 27, 2013 4:26pm
Would be nice if we stay under 143
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  • #3,400
  • Mar 27, 2013 4:27pm Mar 27, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting Fx3423454
Wow, you guys are finally out of your long bias.

Good for you.
Not all of us. Still some of us crazies out there.
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