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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #3,241
  • Mar 26, 2013 6:55pm Mar 26, 2013 6:55pm
Quoting albchr
Ho...Hum...I really hate days like this. Just muddies the waters for me. I honestly don't know if this is a chance to add shorts or wait for a bounce to down to get out...LOL
I'm with you dude. It's a bit muddy now for sure and yesterday definitely could have been the shake out. If so, it worked on me

I'm definitely not adding shorts here though. I've got my SL in at 143.85 and if that gets hit, that's that. It's definitely been a boring day today and watching the lower TFs can drive one crazy. Here's what I'm looking at:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh4.png Size: 107 KB
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  • #3,242
  • Mar 26, 2013 6:57pm Mar 26, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting albchr
LOL...in your position, I wouldn't even open my charts let alone think for a few weeks.....


Well I get bored and have to look at something! Usually its videos on youtube or crackle .... I have recently taken part time position at my main job... Shits getting serious
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  • #3,243
  • Mar 26, 2013 7:01pm Mar 26, 2013 7:01pm
Quoting Geppy
I'm with you dude. It's a bit muddy now for sure and yesterday definitely could have been the shake out. If so, it worked on me

I'm definitely not adding shorts here though. I've got my SL in at 143.85 and if that gets hit, that's that. It's definitely been a boring day today and watching the lower TFs can drive one crazy. Here's what I'm looking at:
Haha...143.90 SL for me and same rules apply.

I will watch PA around that 4H 55 and TL though. Actually on the daily, we're just about 50% up on yesterday's fall. A pretty typical pullback on a previous bar and it's just touching both the 55 and TL. So I'm not convinced shorts are a "bad" thing yet.

I'm more concerned about a spike taking me out and then falling again...LOL
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  • #3,244
  • Mar 26, 2013 7:03pm Mar 26, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting albchr

I'm more concerned about a spike taking me out and then falling again...LOL
Ugh, that's the worst!
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  • #3,245
  • Mar 26, 2013 7:08pm Mar 26, 2013 7:08pm
Interesting indexes here. Pound looks weak and the YEN is rather indecisive in my view.
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  • #3,246
  • Mar 26, 2013 7:08pm Mar 26, 2013 7:08pm
Quoting Geppy
Ugh, that's the worst!
I know. That hurts more than just a plain bad trade decision...lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,247
  • Mar 26, 2013 7:09pm Mar 26, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting albchr
Okie dokie but, if this goes up 150 pips tonight, will you still go long tomorrow to your 146.50? If so, you just lost a LOT of money...no?

BTW man, I'm not mocking, just asking. Been a boring day...LOL
Then I'll kick myself lol I think we'll see a pullback to around 143 or there abouts, tomorrows daily pivot is around 143.10.
  • #3,248
  • Mar 26, 2013 7:14pm Mar 26, 2013 7:14pm
More fuel for the fire

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...tes-will-fall/
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  • #3,249
  • Mar 26, 2013 8:13pm Mar 26, 2013 8:13pm
Entered short @ 143.50, sl 143.75
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  • #3,250
  • Mar 26, 2013 8:13pm Mar 26, 2013 8:13pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Entered short @ 143.50, sl 143.75
Target 142.00
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  • #3,251
  • Mar 26, 2013 8:20pm Mar 26, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting BobGnarly
More fuel for the fire

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...tes-will-fall/
Must be a small ass fire... I can't feel any heat!!! lol
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  • #3,252
  • Mar 26, 2013 8:29pm Mar 26, 2013 8:29pm
I'd like to take a moment to explain how I see the two fib retracements working at this time.

The red fib covers the swing down from 2/7/13 (high of 147.955) to 2/26/13 (low of 137.812). The way I understand retracement fibs is that the 38.2, 50, and 61.8 levels that, IF the trend were to continue, price would most likely retrace to those levels then resume the descent. If price retraces close to the 76.4 then it is more likely that the trend will reverse.

On the red fib, price does just that, breaches the 76.4 but does not close above it. It is rejected back into the range between the 61 and 38. This retrace, in my opinion, can also be fibbed out as it is an intermediate uptrend. Once done, there is some nice confluence between the two. The same principles apply to the blue fib. Price retraces back down and literally hits the 50 to be shot back up (and an argument can be made that this is close enough to the 38 of the red fib.

So, are ranging still in the red range. Of course this is just my own view of this in the intermediate. With such a bounce off of the 50 which, at least now, I am convinced, as I've said before that we will reach back to the top of the blue fib. It price is able to close above the 76 of the red, then we will likely see it get back to 147.955 in short order.

Now, pick it apart.
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  • #3,253
  • Mar 26, 2013 8:54pm Mar 26, 2013 8:54pm
Abe: Recent currency trend is an overall plus for the Japanese economy
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  • #3,254
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:12pm Mar 26, 2013 9:12pm
Abe: Excessive yen strength is beginning to be corrected




"Beginning"
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  • #3,255
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:13pm Mar 26, 2013 9:13pm
Isn't it usual that in general the yen gets stronger in the last week if March when they close their books?
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  • #3,256
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:15pm Mar 26, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Isn't it usual that in general the yen gets stronger in the last week if March when they close their books?
That was the fall we had, according to sources.
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  • #3,257
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:28pm Mar 26, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Abe: Excessive yen strength is beginning to be corrected




"Beginning"
Nice!
  • #3,258
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:35pm Mar 26, 2013 9:35pm
Quoting BobGnarly
That was the fall we had, according to sources.
Then we should see more down, until the first week of April I guess.
Anyway for now gj has trouble passing 143.60, which is good for short.
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  • #3,259
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:38pm Mar 26, 2013 9:38pm
Boy...alotta pages went by in two hours....Ian's wave count on the usd/jpy says a bottom should be in place.....I wonder though....one thing I can say though...one can trade a huge fast spike (like we see oh, once a month these days maybe) by reversing a 150 pip or so run that occurs in 4 minutes....and does an "impossible to trade fast spike at the end...22 seconds.....and back the other way 45 pips in three minutes....then a march in price levels, jumping up 15 pips within the first hour....

One can actually clobber the market if you only traded spikes, the aussie news spikes are give-aways.....but these big spikes, if you're watching when it happens....

Get this, have a look at IFR watch....what's their name.....thompson news , tomsom something....at OANDA on the tradestation. anyone have access? I'll go get a looky and be right back....I'll tell ya what i've found. right back
  • #3,260
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:47pm Mar 26, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Boy...alotta pages went by in two hours....Ian's wave count on the usd/jpy says a bottom should be in place.....I wonder though....one thing I can say though...one can trade a huge fast spike (like we see oh, once a month these days maybe) by reversing a 150 pip or so run that occurs in 4 minutes....and does an "impossible to trade fast spike at the end...22 seconds.....and back the other way 45 pips in three minutes....then a march in price levels, jumping up 15 pips within the first hour....

One can actually clobber the market if you only...



So when does the massive yen pair sell off start?



Or do you change your mind now?
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