GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

Hello all,
this is my Euro update for a new swing long about to begin. In my humble opinion if you have still swing shorts you should close them.
I don't think all the bad news about Europe automatically signify lower prices, actually the opposite. At the moment it looks like everybody is buying Dollars and selling the Euro: a good environment for a solid chart-based and rule-based analysis.

As usual, use at your own risk.

As anticipated (see the previous analysis) the Euro corrected down into the 1.2900 area, stopping today at 1.2931. I anticipate a bounce higher now from the current price level. We still don't know exactly where the bounce will come from.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363219417

I have the two scenarios below:

Scenario 1. Price is now within an area in which we could see strong participation on the upside. Above 1.3030 (based on current lows at 1.2931) the confirmation of support will come and price will start a move into the 1.4080-1.41 area. The start of the move higher could come from lower levels at 1.2915 or even 1.2840, if price dips lower.

Scenario 2. There is still a possibility price could keep moving lower past the 1.2769 and 1.2712 level (the latter ist he line in the sand). Below 1.2712 we could have a very high probable retest retest of the 1.2130 area of monthly support. However my belief is that scenario 2 has low probability at the moment.

Let me know what you think.
Thank you.
-fibstalker

PS: the video for tomorrow will shortly be on my Blog

EU WEEKLY... STILL WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE BOX OF S/R FROM SEPTEMBER LAST YEAR, WE ARE CLOSING INSIDE SO WE WILL GO TO THE BOTTOM...

1st chart weekly MARKED THE NEXT 2 LINES, WE WILL HIT 1 OF THEM AT LEAST

2nd chart DAILY LEVELS FOR MORE SHORTS TOMORROW
..........................................................

EJ WEEKLY STILL SAYING LONG, HERES WEEKLY LEVELS BELOW WE'RE RETRACING DOWN TO FOR THE LONGS TO KICK BACK IN

EJ DAILY, GOT TO GO WITH SHORTS FROM ANY LEVELS ABOVE AIMING FOR WEEKLY LEVELS BELOW

................................

weekly and daily charts in that order

GU WEEKLY, CAN CLEARLY SEE THE HIT OF WEEKLY S/R ABOVE BUT WE'RE STILL GOING LONG... SO WE'RE BEING TOLD LONG BEFORE SHORT...

GU DAILY CLOSED LONG CONFIRMING UP PRESSURE IN CONTROL... WATCH YESTERDAYS HIGH AGAIN, THEN DAILY LEVELS ABOVE..

charts weekly and daily that order

Euro update, support?

Price hit the 1.2920 area of target related to the last short entry and resistance at 1.3070. Thus that move has ended. The next level of resistance in the daily short sequence comes in the 1.3000 area towards which we are currently retracing.

Two potential scenarios:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363271050

Scenario 1. Price is correcting towards the 1.3000 area, the next short setup. If price moves above 1.3020 the sequence of moves lower ends and support on the 1.2910-20 area is confirmed. In this case we could see price hit the 20-day SMA before a retrace, with price not moving below the 1.2918 level (current lows).

Scenario 2. Price respects the next short setup never piercing the 1.3019 level on the upside and resume the move lower into the 1.2880 level (1st target) that lines up with the 200-day SMA

Let me know what you think.
Thanks
Cheers
G.

Hello traders,
an update for the USD Dollar Index that can be helpful not only for trading the EUR/USD (52% of the Dollar Index) but also the other major pairs USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

We had a sequence a of two traditional measured moves higher: the first with long entry in the 82.30 area with target in 83. The second with entry in the 82.70 area and targets at 83.40 (today's highs). We now have a new (third) long setup in the sequence at the 83.00 area (check the picture below).

The third long setup just traded: support was shown at the 83.01 level. This long setup has a stop, and failure level, below 82.90. Below this level the sequence of measured move is interrupted and we could see the start of the move lower in the Dollar Index (Scenario 1)

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363277753

Here are my two scenarios, as usual:

Scenario 1. If price comes below the 82.90 level the sequence of measured moves higher on the daily chart ends and price could start its move towards the 20-day SMA (partial targets area). The move could then continue lower after a bounce.

Scenario 2. If the next setup long on the daily chart is respected, i.e. price of the index never moves below 82.90 there is the possibility of a continuation higher into the next target at the 83.60 area (1st target) and even higher.

Let me know what you think.
Thank you

PS: Euro FX futures just approaching the resistance at 1.3000 in my last analysis

Euro & Cable Update:

Lead/Lag race up to "7th Heaven" on again?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363313582

Posted by cdndollar
Cable showing some life..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1363170155

Hello all,
Euro going up as anticipated in past analysis.This is an update on the 4-hour chart.

By piercing on the upside the level I have indicated yesterday,i.e. 1.3020, price confirmed the 1.2900 area of support. It does not mean that area could not be retested, but with a confirmation, a potential retest should now hold.

The 1.3010 extension long setup on the 4-hour chart held yesterday and brough price into the 1.3060 area (1st target) and then the 1.3080 area (2nd target). Next support and long entry now at 1.3075

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363353467

My two scenarios as usual (see picture above):

Scenario 1. If the 1.3066 level is pierced on the downside there are two important level to watch where we could see bounces. The first level is 1.3015-20 area, while the second is the 1.2980 area. We don't know where price will stop and reverse. If we get this move lower now this is will be the opportunity for Program Trading to establish or add to longs. If we don't get the retrace now, we will eventually have a retrace. So don't rush to longs. (notice that sometimes even after breaking below 1.3066 the 'busted' setup can reach the 1.3120 area of target anyway, before correcting lower into the indicated levels)

Scenario 2. The next level of support and long entry is at 1.3075 with a stop below 1.3065. If price holds this long setup we could see the 1.3120 area hit (1st target) and then price hit the 1.3140 area (2nd target)

Let me know what you think.
Thank you
GL

Cheers
G.

EURUSD & GBPUSD end of month Easter week Update..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1364126549

Cable leading cousin Euro..



Euro COT @03192013:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1364154681

the Big dogs had been covering some of their windfalls from last July.. their sentiment could change on a dime @ good risk-adjusted inflection zones..

Positioning

Plenty of room

do as u please

Being short G/Y atm is a fools game ?

Even U/J is moving up

A government with no majority or mandate.

A fiscal policy of deficit reduction which is not working. Weaker than expected trade balance data.

Industrial production had the biggest q/q fall ( 2.1% ) since Q1 2009.

Yes we are talking about the Pound.



A textbook break and retest of the low of 2012 and the similar low of 2011, to within a few pips on the weekly chart. Who traded this? Don't you wish we had hindsight binoculars? (Greece sailing).

Anyway I'm trading the down trend and will be entering each time I see suitable price action during London and especially at 9.30am UK time, this when Asia has not eaten all the pies. No doubt we will have a dead cat bounce at 1.5. I won't be waiting for a retest if we go through there.

I said what I wanted to say about the state of British politics here in January. But hey, they knocked a penny off the price of a pint (Currently about £3.00). I'm not impressed. No wonder Scotland will probably be leaving the Union and Ulster isn't allowed to fly the Union flag. Wales next? There's not much left in England except London and the financial centre we are protecting so vehemently is currently losing money.

I'm looking forward to trading this down to 1.42 and even lower, not being able to see much technical support until at least there.

Lastly, I hope I'm wrong. I have to live here!

Here's a chart of Gbp/Jpy:



Although this is a monthly chart, the engulfing monthly bar is not a good sign for bulls. It is off a Fibonacci level, albeit contrived, but longer term I would not be looking to buy this pair.

Here is a question. How can the Japanese make the Yen rationally weaker than the Pound?

Spot on brother.
Worth looking at the GY Daily and Weekly charts too. From a TA perspective, we have a reasonable H&S on the Daily as well as a bearish RD which hasn't played out yet. If GY can reach something like 132, then GU will likely be testing 1.4.

This monthly chart shows how we recently broke out of the wedge/triangle formation. The aquamarine line is the 200ma.



The weekly shows the break and retest of 1.5260 support level and also indicates we have a level of fairly strong support at 1.48xx.



The daily gives us a clear picture of this rejection and an engulfing (of 6 days) bearish candle.



The hourly shows us a double top with a break of the neckline at 1.51 currently being retested.

Anatomy of a Breakout:
state of the Euro mid-term ship @04092013

Hello all,
FibStalker is back (and who cares?). Okay enough for self-greeting! . Hope you all are well. My Easter trip was awesome!

Immediately back to business... I want to remind you all my latest reviews on the Euro FX currency futures I made before leaving:

post #6524356 and in my newsletter (last one sent on March 17th).

This is my up to date view of the Euro (daily chart):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1365577267



In the last weeks/months we have heard a lot about the Euro demise and lower prices projections. But the failure level indicated before leaving for my trip (1.2715 on the June contract) was never violated on the downside. The potential to 1.41 area is still intact and, indeed, this target will be confirmed if/when prices climb above 1.3360.

As usual my two scenarios going forward:

Scenario 1. The Euro is not likely to offer a throw-back at this stage and it is very possible that will just continue generally higher into the 1.3360 area (and higher) before we get a sensible correction. Such a move downwards could bring prices into the 1.3140 before a renewed move higher to the next level of profit taking (close to February highs). Congratulations to those who followed my advice and were not distracted by the heavily negative news!

Scenario 2. There is still a possibility that we get a retrace here, in which case we could see price back into the 1.3000 area where the 20-day SMA could be met and offer support. This would be a good long entry to those who lost the train.

If you lost the train now be patient. If we don't get scenario 2 (lower probability), you will need to wait for price to move higher into and above the 1.3360 area before a potential retrace into 1.3140. Good luck.

PS: if you find my analysis compelling and correct, as well as, if it helped you, feel free to vouch me!

All the best.

Cdndollar I wish I could get a handle on that decoupling on the 13th March - Eur/Gbp. I have been studying that but with limited success.


Hey Fibstalker thanks for the chart! I too suffer from "who cares?" but, of course, we can't acknowledge every post and logically, we wouldn't keep coming back if people didn't post charts. As for vouches, well, publicly I would say I don't give them out any more because there are too many good traders on these threads who haven't got my vouch. There are also many more clowns I would like to give a negative vouch.

Hello smikester,
thanks for your note. My "who cares?" was totally ironic of course, I don't suffer of being under-read . I post first and foremost for myself, to fix my analysis. If that can help someone, well can only be happy about it.

About the vouching, appreciate your honesty. Is not something I generally ask for, and I have not need of them to post and open threads (which is the most important thing). I just hope that consistency will be appreciated, but that is not necessary. What is important is that I keep growing my account.

Cheers
G.