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  • #3,121
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:16am Mar 25, 2013 10:16am
Quoting KillerWhale
Yeah, I also dropped my longs
high 142s would be a good short area. we'll see...
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  • #3,122
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:35am Mar 25, 2013 10:35am
gosh, alb is gonna come back and really hate himself for closing his shorts last night...
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  • #3,123
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:56am Mar 25, 2013 10:56am
Given the nature of this downmove, it looks more like a clean out of retail longs, I think we'll be back at 143.50 very soon, but we will see...
  • #3,124
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:59am Mar 25, 2013 10:59am
Quoting GDR3k
Given the nature of this downmove, it looks more like a clean out of retail longs, I think we'll be back at 143.50 very soon, but we will see...
We definitely could be, but this is a pretty significant move IMO. Some serious support has been broken and I think that, at least for the short to medium-term, shorts will be in play.

Shorts are safe below 145, I think that's becoming quite clear now.
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  • #3,125
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:09am Mar 25, 2013 11:09am
280 pips is a strange amount to travel(from the friday high of 144.79 or so.......215 is the usual and then 330 pips.....so if it crashes through my 137.84 ....look for longs 100 pips below...... or 200 pips below....that scenario plays all the time for a major reversal......it will make one think downtrend but alas.....we know it's a major uptrend till the end of time.....ha!!
that's the only way to shake out the longs in all the jpy pairs.....a massive downturn and make the charts look mid-term down, too.!

At that point....we'll prolly see intervention spikes ...even. Meaning a fast rise to cover ground before traders can catch up.
  • #3,126
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:19am Mar 25, 2013 11:19am
Quoting Geppy
gosh, alb is gonna come back and really hate himself for closing his shorts last night...
.... lol

But at least I saw this coming eh?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,127
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:23am Mar 25, 2013 11:23am
why the uptrend?.....back in september there was a small news article about the ecb changing it's policy back to how it was in the first half of 2007.....London controls the world finances......Washington is the military and Rome is the church.........so when I read that God told me to find a place to buy and hold to 314.xx......123.xx and 124.00's back then........so 137.84 isn't but a step to a target near the 163.xx in the big picture.
they changed policy back to how it was before the fall from 251.xx.....don't be sitting on your hands at 135.88.....give em a battle, you are warriors in the most important business there is.
  • #3,128
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:53am Mar 25, 2013 11:53am
Quoting albchr
.... lol

But at least I saw this coming eh?
haha, I guess that helps
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  • #3,129
  • Mar 25, 2013 12:05pm Mar 25, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting Geppy
haha, I guess that helps
I'm finding it to be the next evolutionary stage of development in my trading. "Trusting" what I see and then having the conviction to see it through. It's always hardest when bucking the overall direction that's been in play for a while. Although right after I closed them I did say it will drop, just not yet.

But those two longs I took that I set a 142.70 SL for hurt even more to come home to. Missing a trade is one thing. Making bad ones SUCKS! LOL
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  • #3,130
  • Mar 25, 2013 12:18pm Mar 25, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting albchr
I'm finding it to be the next evolutionary stage of development in my trading. "Trusting" what I see and then having the conviction to see it through. It's always hardest when bucking the overall direction that's been in play for a while. Although right after I closed them I did say it will drop, just not yet.

But those two longs I took that I set a 142.70 SL for hurt even more to come home to. Missing a trade is one thing. Making bad ones SUCKS! LOL
Did we loose the UP trend ?
  • #3,131
  • Mar 25, 2013 12:57pm Mar 25, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting netera
Did we loose the UP trend ?
Most likely
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #3,132
  • Mar 25, 2013 1:39pm Mar 25, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting albchr
I'm finding it to be the next evolutionary stage of development in my trading. "Trusting" what I see and then having the conviction to see it through. It's always hardest when bucking the overall direction that's been in play for a while. Although right after I closed them I did say it will drop, just not yet.

But those two longs I took that I set a 142.70 SL for hurt even more to come home to. Missing a trade is one thing. Making bad ones SUCKS! LOL
Yeah, I've been there... not fun, but it happens.

I've taken some shorts at 142.85/90 as I think we'll see more downside risk.

On a 1h chart, the 50ema is about to cross over the 200ema. The last time this happened was Feb. 13th and I warned the thread that I thought we'd see lower prices (most people weren't listening and were still very bullish).

After that, we dropped about 800 more pips before recovering. So I do think that this is a significant drop today.
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  • #3,133
  • Mar 25, 2013 2:30pm Mar 25, 2013 2:30pm
Rearing my head... to say... watch for that correction... down to 135-132....

Realized that I am not here to be right, not here to mooch analysis... trading to make $$$.

Seeing either a test then a pump up before the drop or just a pump and drop to correct...

JPY is a small country... so you guys are saying that all the toyotas being sold and goods exported from JPY are never paid for.... lets get serious... if only money goes out of JPY .... there is no economy.

So they are going to have to repatriate along the way - just to keep their own economy a float.

Again, small country... the FED Can Ease forever because its the Alpha Market.

Japan fits into the US several times and they are an export economy.

So keep that in mind before you start telling me that I have to look at fundamentals before the elliot wave.
  • #3,134
  • Mar 25, 2013 3:33pm Mar 25, 2013 3:33pm
I remember putting this chart up about 2 weeks ago. Here is an updated chart with comments
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpJpy-d-24032013-2030uk.jpg Size: 130 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,135
  • Mar 25, 2013 4:27pm Mar 25, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting Olu
I remember putting this chart up about 2 weeks ago. Here is an updated chart with comments
Thank you for the analysis. It definitely gives some food for thought toward a trend reversal. I have a different take on the recent drop. I do not see it as an indication of a trend reversal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_032513.png Size: 27 KB
  • #3,136
  • Mar 25, 2013 4:57pm Mar 25, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting Teddicus
Rearing my head... to say... watch for that correction... down to 135-132....

So keep that in mind before you start telling me that I have to look at fundamentals before the elliot wave.
Oh yes, another arrogant attitude here. Remember this?....

Quoting Teddicus
I feel like there may be some correlational relationship btw JPY and XAU....

I believe the yen was historically strong... when Gold was at its peak....

Gold finds itself at Some serious support and starting a potential correction as the GJ has weakend....

So personally I like a short GJ... One can't just exhale... A trend cant forever go in one direction.
It was back on March 12th. Great place to short if you wanted to deal with a 386 pip drawdown. Which (one) of your waves told you that? I can call anything today, wait long enough and it will come to pass. So fine, you believe in waves and that's cool. Others do not. But did you catch any of the almost 400 BULL pips before this fall? Some of us like to try and follow price to "make $$$" But we don't come in pounding our chest when a call we made weeks ago "finally" happens.

Please...look back and you'll see I was doubting anything much beyond 145 for almost a month. But sure made some BULL pips before now. Only difference is, I don't come here with the old "see I told you so" crap. Surf on dude....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3,137
  • Mar 25, 2013 5:04pm Mar 25, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting Olu
I remember putting this chart up about 2 weeks ago. Here is an updated chart with comments
Hey Olu,

Yep and a nice chart supported by others as well.

Quoting cortmann
hi all...

another point of view supporting your charts, albchr. on daily time frame I see we are falling from the right shoulder. when we will meet the median line seems to be a matter of time...
Could very well be the reversal some of us were thinking of. Let's see...
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  • #3,138
  • Mar 25, 2013 5:07pm Mar 25, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting albchr
It was back on March 12th. Great place to short if you wanted to deal with a 386 pip drawdown. Which (one) of your waves told you that? I can call anything today, wait long enough and it will come to pass. So fine, you believe in waves and that's cool. Others do not. But did you catch any of the almost 400 BULL pips before this fall? Some of us like to try and follow price to "make $$$" But we don't come in pounding our chest when a call we made weeks ago "finally" happens.

Please...look back and you'll see I was doubting anything much...
Couldn't agree more with this. Nice
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  • #3,139
  • Mar 25, 2013 5:07pm Mar 25, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting Oser
Thank you for the analysis. It definitely gives some food for thought toward a trend reversal. I have a different take on the recent drop. I do not see it as an indication of a trend reversal.

Attachment
Just be careful brother. This is one SERIOUS daily candle here and not to be taken lightly. Don't get "stuck" in any particular bias. We can make money just as easy selling as buying
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_daily.gif Size: 20 KB
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  • #3,140
  • Mar 25, 2013 5:12pm Mar 25, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Geppy
Couldn't agree more with this. Nice
I mean really...some people!

Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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