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  • #1,681
  • Mar 25, 2013 8:54am Mar 25, 2013 8:54am
Quoting mkashifk
Hi SP,

Found your your rambling very interesting. Infact I had been trading london open but was not very consistent, but your ramblings have put me on the right path. Besides that I also got the hi/lo fadding thing as a bonus thanks to you.

Just to be sure that I have understood it correctly, I am putting my charts with my comments. Can you kindly go through them whenever you have time and put your comments.

I don't use gmt+5 as my open but use london open as my daily open as it fits my schedule and personally I think that most of the trading...
You are correct that the highest trading volume is during London. I use the earlier time for good reasons but the London open will work. You will miss some good moves but you will get some good ones too. Sometimes my daily open will have us on opposite sides of the trade. Sometimes you will win, sometimes I will win. The key is consistency, you must always do the same thing. Today you would have missed the powerful short off the previous week high, as I did, because your day would have started two hours later.

If you are set on using the London open to start your day you will find that the pound pairs will be more reliable for you. The Euro will work off that time but not as well.

EDIT: I just want to add that you have the previous day high marked at the Friday high. I don't do this. I use the weekend high if it is higher than Friday, as with this weekend. I view the weekend as an extension of Friday and start my new week after Midnight Eastern (05:00 GMT when on DST)

In looking at your charts it seems that you have the concepts down correctly and are looking at the right things.
  • #1,682
  • Mar 25, 2013 8:59am Mar 25, 2013 8:59am
SP, how good are you doing with your trading? Any statistics?
  • #1,683
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:16am Mar 25, 2013 9:16am
Quoting Seneca pilot
EDIT: I just want to add that you have the previous day high marked at the Friday high. I don't do this. I use the weekend high if it is higher than Friday, as with this weekend. I view the weekend as an extension of Friday and start my new week after Midnight Eastern (05:00 GMT when on DST).
Thank you SP.

Just to be sure i understood correctly your above point,

You take whole friday and high of monday till 05:00 gmt as a candle, meaning that you take friday as a 29 hr period, and use whichever is high or low (between friday hi/lo and 29hr period hi/lo)?

One more thing I wanted to ask is if I want to use the 1 hr timeframe should I use the weekly Hi/lo with 4 period atr and 4 period ema on weekly tf?
If this is the case, the trigger of full candles not touching the weekly open will still stand? Do you suggest to use monday london open as weekly open or should I stick to gmt 5 time?

Kind regards
Mkashifk
  • #1,684
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:44am Mar 25, 2013 9:44am
Quoting mkashifk
Thank you SP.

Just to be sure i understood correctly your above point,

You take whole friday and high of monday till 05:00 gmt as a candle, meaning that you take friday as a 29 hr period, and use whichever is high or low (between friday hi/lo and 29hr period hi/lo)?

One more thing I wanted to ask is if I want to use the 1 hr timeframe should I use the weekly Hi/lo with 4 period atr and 4 period ema on weekly tf?
If this is the case, the trigger of full candles not touching the weekly open will still stand? Do you suggest to use monday london...
This is correct. Friday candle ends for me at midnight Eastern or 05:00GMT during summer time.

If you want to use the weekly levels you can use one hour or four hour charts. Same principals apply. You want some separation from the weekly open then you can trade the retracement. You can take weekly highs and lows on the first bar of the week. (this week is a great example)

Stops on the weekly timeframe will be 4ema of 4week atr, you are correct.
  • #1,685
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:47am Mar 25, 2013 9:47am
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is correct. Friday candle ends for me at midnight Eastern or 05:00GMT during summer time.

If you want to use the weekly levels you can use one hour or four hour charts. Same principals apply. You want some separation from the weekly open then you can trade the retracement. You can take weekly highs and lows on the first bar of the week. (this week is a great example)

Stops on the weekly timeframe will be 4ema of 4week atr, you are correct.
Thank you, will put it in testing.
  • #1,686
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:53am Mar 25, 2013 9:53am
Some Mondays can turn extra-ordinary.
Today was great for me. I have let go, and i will wait for Uncle Ben's Speach.
Seneca Pilot.
  • #1,687
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:06am Mar 25, 2013 10:06am
Quoting kk007
SP, how good are you doing with your trading? Any statistics?
I gave the stats for the London breakout in post 80. Currently the win rate has increased a little now about 65%. The uncompounded returns are at 64%.

The levels method gives me a hit rate just under 60% with a R/R about 1.8/1. This is after two years of trading the method in its current form. The hit rate is increasing as I am much more disciplined than I was when I started this.

I have had only a few losing weeks and no losing months. My largest floating draw down to date has been just under eight percent. My largest closed weekly draw down has been just over three percent. I win between two and eight percent in a typical week. I never consider taking profit before 1/1 and frequently reach 2/1 or more R/R. I am definately the tortise and not the hare.

I want to manage money. To this end I have started an account at myfxbook using my test account. I want to get verified results there and will consider what to do at that point. I will make that account public in three months and provide a link here. I am considering becomming a signal provider at fxbook or currensee or some of the other sites that offer that service. I am also planning to link an account to RAPA Capital. I need a legitimate track record as a professional money manager to get real funds but these are a good place to start. I haven't made the decision to go commercial yet but will make it in the coming months. Of course if I do I will announce it here and take my rightful place in the thieves forum.

The end goal would be a CTA and a fund. I live in a highly populated area with a lot of wealth. A good consistent CTA here can get a lot of money under management and do rather well. I am not interested in the SP services but if I can't get a bite from RAPA I will do it to start building a track record towards the goal of the CTA and fund.

So there it is. My dirty little secret I want to be a money manager. I want to do it right though, no Jacko here. None of you will ever get a PM from me asking for money. I will still maintain this thread and help for free as long as I have time. I am 42 now and the money management thing is a three year goal. By then I hope to be managing at least a couple million. Wish me luck.
  • #1,688
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:16am Mar 25, 2013 10:16am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I gave the stats for the London breakout in post 80. Currently the win rate has increased a little now about 65%. The uncompounded returns are at 64%.

The levels method gives me a hit rate just under 60% with a R/R about 1.8/1. This is after two years of trading the method in its current form. The hit rate is increasing as I am much more disciplined than I was when I started this.

I have had only a few losing weeks and no losing months. My largest floating draw down to date has been just under eight percent. My largest closed weekly draw down...
I wish you luck. Of course, i will diversify some of my A/Cs to you.
  • #1,689
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:49am Mar 25, 2013 10:49am
SP, Thanks a lot for your sharing!

Quoting Seneca pilot
I gave the stats for the London breakout in post 80. Currently the win rate has increased a little now about 65%. The uncompounded returns are at 64%.

The levels method gives me a hit rate just under 60% with a R/R about 1.8/1. This is after two years of trading the method in its current form. The hit rate is increasing as I am much more disciplined than I was when I started this.

I have had only a few losing weeks and no losing months. My largest floating draw down to date has been just under eight percent. My largest closed weekly draw down...
  • #1,690
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:18am Mar 25, 2013 11:18am
I don't like days like this. The one way action doesn't allow for me to get into a move after it has started and there are no retracements. If you miss the critical first entry like I did today you just miss out on the big move. I made one percent today because the only trade I could take was going to be a small mover from the beginning. No breakout trade either so not the best day for me even though it was profitable. If I simply wake up on time (I vaguely remember turning off the alarm) I catch the move short to at least the previous week close and possibly to the Friday low. None of the big four let me in off the daily open today. Only EU triggered from the past week high. big moves but no big gains for me.
  • #1,691
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:36am Mar 25, 2013 11:36am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I don't like days like this. The one way action doesn't allow for me to get into a move after it has started and there are no retracements. If you miss the critical first entry like I did today you just miss out on the big move. I made one percent today because the only trade I could take was going to be a small mover from the beginning. No breakout trade either so not the best day for me even though it was profitable. If I simply wake up on time (I vaguely remember turning off the alarm) I catch the move short to at least the previous week close...
I understand, I miss many good moves due to my full-time job. This week I am on holiday and today I managed to grow my account by 4.5%.
Actually, the opening range breakout on EU today was somewhat disappointing...

BTW, best of luck with your plans to become a CTA. I am very sure you will make it!
  • #1,692
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:41am Mar 25, 2013 11:41am
Quoting Olarion1975
I understand, I miss many good moves due to my full-time job. This week I am on holiday and today I managed to grow my account by 4.5%.
Actually, the opening range breakout on EU today was somewhat disappointing...

BTW, best of luck with your plans to become a CTA. I am very sure you will make it!
Thank you!
  • #1,693
  • Mar 25, 2013 12:22pm Mar 25, 2013 12:22pm
I took the long at the previous week low. Might stop out or might go up. The gap from two weeks ago still hasn't closed so the possibility always exists that the low could propel the price back up there. If not no big deal I will short a retest if it stops out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu trade.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,694
  • Mar 25, 2013 12:27pm Mar 25, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I took the long at the previous week low. Might stop out or might go up. The gap from two weeks ago still hasn't closed so the possibility always exists that the low could propel the price back up there. If not no big deal I will short a retest if it stops out.
Great, I am with you on that trade. Is your stop 24 pips? This would only be 20% of the daily ATR...
For the weekly high/low you once said you take the weekly ATR...
  • #1,695
  • Mar 25, 2013 12:35pm Mar 25, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Great, I am with you on that trade. Is your stop 24 pips? This would only be 20% of the daily ATR...
For the weekly high/low you once said you take the weekly ATR...
No the stop for this is 51 pips. The stop number on the chart is my daily number. I started putting it on the chart each day so I don't have to keep refering back to the ATR each time I set my stop loss. Sorry for the confusion.
  • #1,696
  • Mar 25, 2013 12:56pm Mar 25, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I took the long at the previous week low. Might stop out or might go up. The gap from two weeks ago still hasn't closed so the possibility always exists that the low could propel the price back up there. If not no big deal I will short a retest if it stops out.
Hi SP,

Really great stuff here, inspiring and you are a great teacher as well.

One question, seems like you ignored Fridays low (green line on your chart). Wouldn't you normal fire of a long trade when price is hitting this? (if you ignore all fundamentals/bias etc that is).

Or did I miss something?

Thx

PC
Less is more...
  • #1,697
  • Mar 25, 2013 1:09pm Mar 25, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting pipcruiser
Hi SP,

Really great stuff here, inspiring and you are a great teacher as well.

One question, seems like you ignored Fridays low (green line on your chart). Wouldn't you normal fire of a long trade when price is hitting this? (if you ignore all fundamentals/bias etc that is).

Or did I miss something?

Thx

PC
No I took it. I just didn't have the markers in the chart when I saved the other trade. I didn't go short on the retest because of the ATR and the weekly level just below. I knew I would be longing at the weekly level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu trade.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #1,698
  • Mar 25, 2013 1:30pm Mar 25, 2013 1:30pm
Hi SP,

Which levels would you look at if you are just trading off daily charts?

I assume it the monthly high, low, close and open?

Thanks
  • #1,699
  • Mar 25, 2013 2:19pm Mar 25, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting tradewiser
Hi SP,

Which levels would you look at if you are just trading off daily charts?

I assume it the monthly high, low, close and open?

Thanks
Yes monthly for highs and lows. Weekly or monthly levels require the stops to be adjusted to the appropriate timeframe and will mean a longer time horizon for the trades. I have never tested or traded monthly levels so I can't really help you on the proper trade management.

You can trade by just placing a pending order at each end of a daily bar and use the shorter term stops. This will give the benefit of only having to refer to the chart a few times a day instead of having to be at the computer all the time. You wouldn't be as profitable as someone watching for all the entries but daily highs and lows will win enough to be profitable.
  • #1,700
  • Mar 25, 2013 2:52pm Mar 25, 2013 2:52pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Yes monthly for highs and lows. Weekly or monthly levels require the stops to be adjusted to the appropriate timeframe and will mean a longer time horizon for the trades. I have never tested or traded monthly levels so I can't really help you on the proper trade management.

You can trade by just placing a pending order at each end of a daily bar and use the shorter term stops. This will give the benefit of only having to refer to the chart a few times a day instead of having to be at the computer all the time. You wouldn't be as profitable as...


Thanks, will check it out
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