AUDJPY
longer term trend DOWN
longer term trend DOWN
Attached Image
Hi Mosaic,
Good to see your thread is still progressing.....
Remember the below? GBPAUD. Support, Resistance and Trend Lines worked perfectly.I'll be closing it shortly to walk away with a decent number of pips.
good luck with the long if you go ahead.
cheers
Good to see your thread is still progressing.....
Remember the below? GBPAUD. Support, Resistance and Trend Lines worked perfectly.I'll be closing it shortly to walk away with a decent number of pips.
good luck with the long if you go ahead.
cheers
Hi HTP,
Thanks...at least someone's reading this !!
Not sure I'm qualified to be giving advice...but I'll give my 2cents worth nonetheless.
If I understand you correctly, you want to go short gbpaud once market calms down after NFP. So maybe at 2.5100 (blue line) Limit at 2.4700 and stop at 2.6000 (red line).
Logic for the trade would be return to trend line. Bounce off of previous level of about 2.500 and also 2.5000 is a nice round number, which often creates levels of resistance/support.
I am not one to have definitive risk reward ratios...it all depends. But to risk 1000 pips for 400. Bit rich for my blood. Also I feel I would be picking a high having nothing to support it except the latter 2 reasons given above which I don't feel are that strong. I will probably wait till it gets back down to the trend line at about 2.47, start going back up and go long...so hopefully will be opening my long as you close your short for 400 pips !!(BIG triangle).
Certainly wouldn't short until I saw an obvious turn down below 2.5000.
Good luck.
Cheers
- #106
- Jun 12, 2006 2:25am Jun 12, 2006 2:25am
Hi Mosaic,
Good to see your thread is still progressing.....
Remember the below? GBPAUD. Support, Resistance and Trend Lines worked perfectly.I'll be closing it shortly to walk away with a decent number of pips.
good luck with the long if you go ahead.
cheers
Thought of your trade many times while watching gbpaud move sideways for awhile and then especially thought of your trade when it plummeted down and hit your limit so well !! Thank goodness I didn't take the long at 2.47...Would love to know how your s/r/tl indicated the possibility of the move down.
Well done !!!
Cheers
Morning Mosaic,
Thanks.
I entered the trade based on the following.
Both the Daily and 4 hour charts show that the pair had previously made three failed attempts to break through and base above the 2.5 price.
I don't have access to the charts this morning but if I remember correctly the first attempt was back in April 05, then end of March 06 and the 3rd more recently mid / late May.
This was the 4th assault and although the pair is experiencing a multi month up trend based on previous price action at this level a drop was likely.
2.53 ( approx ) also is a Fib level from a high June 04 and low July 05 which would help explain the resistance. I placed my stop above just above this level at 2.545
I do believe the up trend will continue and a 5th more vigorous attempt will be made but I prefer to short and will be staying out for the moment.
Problems with my charts this morning mean I can't attach anything to help demonstrate.....frustrating.
Enjoy the trading day....
HTP80
Thanks.
I entered the trade based on the following.
Both the Daily and 4 hour charts show that the pair had previously made three failed attempts to break through and base above the 2.5 price.
I don't have access to the charts this morning but if I remember correctly the first attempt was back in April 05, then end of March 06 and the 3rd more recently mid / late May.
This was the 4th assault and although the pair is experiencing a multi month up trend based on previous price action at this level a drop was likely.
2.53 ( approx ) also is a Fib level from a high June 04 and low July 05 which would help explain the resistance. I placed my stop above just above this level at 2.545
I do believe the up trend will continue and a 5th more vigorous attempt will be made but I prefer to short and will be staying out for the moment.
Problems with my charts this morning mean I can't attach anything to help demonstrate.....frustrating.
Enjoy the trading day....
HTP80
Hi HTP,
Would love to know how your s/r/tl indicated the possibility of the move down.
Well done !!!
Cheers
- #114
- Jun 12, 2006 9:09am Jun 12, 2006 9:09am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts
yeah, the x in terms of $$ or pips is a mind killer. i like your style and posts. it is impossible for me to sit with "slow and steady", however. trying to learn it from you.
Update...
instead of looking at graphs to see if they were signalling anything, I was trying to find a signal in the graphs. Read that again...its fundamentally different. Have let my great mentors (RB, PI and JH) down badly in the last few days, but will pick myself up and get posting. The slow and steady approach which is what this whole thread was about got nailed. Silly me.
- #116
- Jun 12, 2006 2:44pm Jun 12, 2006 2:44pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: itme in disguise | 26 Posts
Hi Mosaic,
Like another newbie in the learning process of forex trading , i appreciate your
display charts .It's a good lesson for us , newbie , to see where are the trend lines, where are the s/r lines .
Please keep display your analysis every day for us to learn .
Thanks again Mosaic.
Like another newbie in the learning process of forex trading , i appreciate your
display charts .It's a good lesson for us , newbie , to see where are the trend lines, where are the s/r lines .
Please keep display your analysis every day for us to learn .
Thanks again Mosaic.
- #117
- Jun 13, 2006 1:56am Jun 13, 2006 1:56am
Pleasure re the charts.
Just remember others may draw the lines differently, or on different timeframes
Have a look at this gold chart...not sure where to draw the daily trendline, but 2 of them seem to be about to be tested....
fib low also a bit arbitary
so I don't think this is necessarily a high probability long trade
Just remember others may draw the lines differently, or on different timeframes
Have a look at this gold chart...not sure where to draw the daily trendline, but 2 of them seem to be about to be tested....
fib low also a bit arbitary
so I don't think this is necessarily a high probability long trade
- #118
- Jun 13, 2006 2:19am Jun 13, 2006 2:19am
yeah, the x in terms of $$ or pips is a mind killer. i like your style and posts. it is impossible for me to sit with "slow and steady", however. trying to learn it from you.
We'll learn it together....but the mind killer thing is too true. Have also chatted to a very experienced and very succesful trader who has a limit regarding the trade sizes. If they get too big, then his mind plays games with him and emotion etc rule. Amazing... hence my first quote to myself (not that I necessary listen to myself) - make each trade inconsequential !! and that can only be done by using a very small capital risk (in my view anyway).
