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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #1,581
  • Edited 5:43am Mar 20, 2013 4:47am | Edited 5:43am
Minutes of BOE meeting evened up lagging EU and pushed it past the upside breakout, mean while GU with its bad news was over the roof, Its now viciously attacking its Previous Day High.
Now waiting for GBP Annual Budget Release at 15:30(13:30 GMT), US FED Interest Rates 21:00 (18:00 GMT) and FOMC 21:00-21:30(18:00-18:00 GMT).

Edit: If you are trading EU, remember it may be dependent on the the power of GU. If GU is resisted by some level/force up there and comes down, EU will follow through. Just my Opinion.
  • #1,582
  • Mar 20, 2013 6:22am Mar 20, 2013 6:22am
Hi All,

Not currently trading as I am still backtesting different instruments, but wanted to show GBP/JPY, a thing of beauty this AM .

You can see the drawdown was tiny and the R was substantial.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpym15.png Size: 29 KB
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #1,583
  • Mar 20, 2013 7:20am Mar 20, 2013 7:20am
If one uses only 3 lines: Daily Open, Previous Day High, Previous Day Low, as Seneca showed, it is sufficient for very successful trading.

Today's price behaviour across various pairs serves as proof.

Daily Open ----> Previous Day High

Daily Open ----> Previous Day Low
  • #1,584
  • Mar 20, 2013 7:37am Mar 20, 2013 7:37am
Question regarding Pre-London Range BO on EU M5;

Chart shows (blue circle & white dashed line) upper range of Pre London.

• In this case, has sufficient time (bars) passed to qualify this as a "Retest"?

• Am I asking the right question?

Thanks,
Darryl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2013-03-20 at 7.29.05 AM.png Size: 11 KB
  • #1,585
  • Mar 20, 2013 8:30am Mar 20, 2013 8:30am
Quoting square1
Trading the London Breakout on EU at the same time with news can be wacky. If you don't put stops. It was actually like a Frankie Fake.
It played out well on GBP pairs
The London hourly breakout on EU today was perfect. Only eight pips drawdown. Still in it, however I am fairly sure that it will stop me out during FOMC release later today.
  • #1,586
  • Mar 20, 2013 8:31am Mar 20, 2013 8:31am
Quoting diamonddbw
Question regarding Pre-London Range BO on EU M5;

Chart shows (blue circle & white dashed line) upper range of Pre London.

• In this case, has sufficient time (bars) passed to qualify this as a "Retest"?

• Am I asking the right question?

Thanks,
Darryl
Use an hour chart for the London breakout. If you get an hour close outside the range then trade the retest.
  • #1,587
  • Mar 20, 2013 9:39am Mar 20, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Use an hour chart for the London breakout. If you get an hour close outside the range then trade the retest.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



Right Question, Wrong set up... Sorry Dude!
  • #1,588
  • Mar 20, 2013 9:45am Mar 20, 2013 9:45am
Quoting snail69
If one uses only 3 lines: Daily Open, Previous Day High, Previous Day Low, as Seneca showed, it is sufficient for very successful trading.

Today's price behaviour across various pairs serves as proof.

Daily Open ----> Previous Day High

Daily Open ----> Previous Day Low

hey Snail,

Where ?
  • #1,589
  • Mar 20, 2013 9:53am Mar 20, 2013 9:53am
Here ya go.

Some ramblings from a real junkie!

How's tricks in here?

Inserted Video


Everybody having a good time eh?
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,590
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:13am Mar 20, 2013 10:13am
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



Right Question, Wrong set up... Sorry Dude!


Never be afraid to ask a question - especially here, you won't find any frustrations with SP, so far he deal with amateurs like you with good manners
(I am the biggest amateur on FF)
  • #1,591
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:13am Mar 20, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Seneca pilot
The London hourly breakout on EU today was perfect. Only eight pips drawdown. Still in it, however I am fairly sure that it will stop me out during FOMC release later today.
Absolutely. I am in it, too. Closed already half position at 1/1.
  • #1,592
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:19am Mar 20, 2013 10:19am
Quoting Seneca pilot
The London hourly breakout on EU today was perfect. Only eight pips drawdown. Still in it, however I am fairly sure that it will stop me out during FOMC release later today.
So if you don't get a 15min entry will you always look to higher TF? Is that because you have developed a bit of bias? eg you see 15m acting nicely, pulling away, but just no retrace to open line - or are you just following the bigger candles regardless of 15m action?

Also re: SL on the 1H trade, are you going to use a bigger stop than on a 15m trade? You need to put a stop below the range right which could be lower than your ADR based 15m stop?

Steve
  • #1,593
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:26am Mar 20, 2013 10:26am
Quoting stevexyg
So if you don't get a 15min entry will you always look to higher TF? Is that because you have developed a bit of bias? eg you see 15m acting nicely, pulling away, but just no retrace to open line - or are you just following the bigger candles regardless of 15m action?

Also re: SL on the 1H trade, are you going to use a bigger stop than on a 15m trade? You need to put a stop below the range right which could be lower than your ADR based 15m stop?

Steve
A bit of confusion.

The levels trades for intraday are always off the fifteen minute chart. Daily open for example.

The breakout trade is the Post 80 strategy using one hour chart waiting for a close outside the three hour channel leading up to the London open then trading the retest of the channel boundary. I use this in a longer term account and hold the trades when possible for days. A few times a year we will get a nice long trend and these breakout trades can survive for several days adding on new breakouts along the way.

I don't mix the strategies or timeframes for the trades. In fact they are done in two different accounts.
  • #1,594
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:42am Mar 20, 2013 10:42am
Quoting Seneca pilot
A bit of confusion.
I'll say. Sorry that's my fault for asking a confusing question! Yes I know it's a different strategy but I guess you answered the question anyway. You just trade the two strategies regardless of what is happening with the other.

It's because I just noticed from todays EU there was no 15m entry north but as we see the breakout gave a lovely retrace entry at top of range. So the price is going up and you have two chances to get onboard. I was just wondering if you thought that way ie with price looking strong due to 15m looking to go up but it's not quite meeting the entry criteria do you have more faith in the range breakout in the same direction? But you have said before no bias = no faith.
  • #1,595
  • Mar 20, 2013 11:08am Mar 20, 2013 11:08am
Just an FYI in case people weren't aware, we are in the daylight savings transition period between the US/Europe, where there is only a four hour difference.

So if you are trading the London open based off of EDT, it would be 4AM EDT/8AM GMT, not the usual 3AM EST. The five hour difference resumes Easter Monday (April 1).
  • #1,596
  • Mar 20, 2013 11:14am Mar 20, 2013 11:14am
Quoting smittens4212
Just an FYI in case people weren't aware, we are in the daylight savings transition period between the US/Europe, where there is only a four hour difference.

So if you are trading the London open based off of EDT, it would be 4AM EDT/8AM GMT, not the usual 3AM EST. The five hour difference resumes Easter Monday (April 1).
sorry I didn't understand any of that.
  • #1,597
  • Mar 20, 2013 11:42am Mar 20, 2013 11:42am
Quoting stevexyg
sorry I didn't understand any of that.
clocks go forward next week
tradewith60
  • #1,598
  • Mar 20, 2013 11:48am Mar 20, 2013 11:48am
For 95% of the year, there is a five hour time difference between the US and UK.

London opens at 8AM, which normally translates to 3AM on the East Coast. However the US starts daylight savings before Europe, so there is a three week stretch (we are in the second week) where the time difference is only four hours.

That means from March 11 - March 29, the London open is not 3AM on the East Coast, but 4AM.

I hope most US traders took this into account when setting their alarm clocks, but my post was just a friendly reminder in case they didn't!
  • #1,599
  • Mar 20, 2013 1:49pm Mar 20, 2013 1:49pm
Am babysitting the breakout of the FOMC News Range. Its just tedious. I wanna Zzzzz....
  • #1,600
  • Mar 20, 2013 1:57pm Mar 20, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting square1
Am babysitting the breakout of the FOMC News Range. Its just tedious. I wanna Zzzzz....
The news conference is ongoing and price may bounce around for a bit.
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