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The Really Useless Thread

  • #131,801
  • Mar 19, 2013 12:45pm Mar 19, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting sisse
Lol, you make me smile Lumesh. No offence taken

Well I don't quite understand where are you aiming with your comments.
[list][*]First, when I talk Fundamentals I usually heard crickets in FF except with well known exceptions (Piters, Gator, Ingmarforex, PT, Cloggie and a few others including yourself). People don't engage in exchanging views either because they are not interested (90% of traders around here just want a quick buck, they don't wanna see anything beyond that) or they are afraid to just say what they think. So you understand why...
I was waiting for this reply ... someone tried to sas sisse
you the man
  • #131,802
  • Mar 19, 2013 12:48pm Mar 19, 2013 12:48pm
Inserted Video
!
  • #131,803
  • Mar 19, 2013 12:58pm Mar 19, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting AllyB
depends on if you like butter or not
I do like a lot of buter, in this case
  • #131,804
  • Mar 19, 2013 1:02pm Mar 19, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting infinitus
I do like a lot of buter, in this case

good answer

been on here for 12 hours so hold that thought as i am signing off .... see ya
  • #131,805
  • Mar 19, 2013 1:09pm Mar 19, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting AllyB
good answer

been on here for 12 hours so hold that thought as i am signing off .... see ya


I see, the butter has to be placed - may I help?
  • #131,806
  • Mar 19, 2013 1:18pm Mar 19, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting sisse
Well I don't quite understand where are you aiming with your comments.

 

  1. First, when I talk Fundamentals I usually heard crickets in FF except with well known exceptions (Piters, Gator, Ingmarforex, PT, Cloggie and a few others including yourself). People don't engage in exchanging views either because they are not interested (90% of traders around here just want a quick buck, they don't wanna see anything beyond that) or they are afraid to just say what they think. So you understand why sometimes I need to engage in only TA chat.

[list][*]Third,...


Fair enough.

Anyways, you focused too much on the "being a technical trader" part.

My point was that back in the day (January to be exact) i basically had my head on the table saying that the euro's upmove was pretty much BS because the FUNDAMENTALS had NOT changed. I still stand by that. Yes, the tail risks have SEEMINGLY being removed but the underlying situation simply wasn't/isn't sustainable. I stand by the fact that it was a MONETARY POLICY short term move not a fundamental move. You can't argue with the fact that the eurozone's growth has gone worse (with the exeption of Germany)

If i was wrong about the fundamentals of eurozone, the euro wouldn't be trading below 1.30 after that extreme upswing.


Btw, You know, you're lucky to be that patient in trading. I don't have that quality. My occasional aggressiveness in trading and ignorance towards patience has it's up's and down's (which you could've simply exploited from my January's posts). But regardless, i was still near 100% confident i was right...fundamentally...eventually...which i was.



Quoting sisse
Lol, you make me smile Lumesh.
well, you know that saying: "a smile a day keeps the doctor away"
  • #131,807
  • Mar 19, 2013 1:19pm Mar 19, 2013 1:19pm
junkiesssssssssssssss

hope all well and in green

one for the road with shitty levels

still have a laptop slow like hell no virus no shitt and format c and still too dam slow
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  • #131,808
  • Edited 2:12pm Mar 19, 2013 1:47pm | Edited 2:12pm
looks like the gap will fill tomorrow
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Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #131,809
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:15pm Mar 19, 2013 2:15pm
sorry, i put my fat finger on buy lol
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #131,810
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:16pm Mar 19, 2013 2:16pm
oops. lol./ What's got everyone all riled up now?
  • #131,811
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:17pm Mar 19, 2013 2:17pm
Votes in - they voted no - Cyprus is bankrupt.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-8541257.html
  • #131,812
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:19pm Mar 19, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting stewrigh
Votes in - they voted no - Cyprus is bankrupt.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-8541257.html
Nice! Does this mean we can go back to where we were before the drama? lol
  • #131,813
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:21pm Mar 19, 2013 2:21pm
Idiotic algo's are fighting with each other.
  • #131,814
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:27pm Mar 19, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting lumesh

Anyways, you focused too much on the "being a technical trader" part. ...

My point was that back in the day (January to be exact) i basically had my head on the table saying that the euro's upmove was pretty much BS because the

well, you know that saying: "a smile a day keeps the doctor away"
Oh I see where you coming from now...no no problem at all I see what you mean.

Well the question is defining that thin line between being right as trader and being right as analyst (the best, is being right in both). For example going back to your case in December.

If you isolate the case as analyse without charts or trading context and taking a mid term perspective (minimum for an analyst) I agree and you were absolutely right FA wise. Things don't just fade without real changes and 100% Euro was not going to fly to the moon, it wasn't an option under any measure.

However, if you input context first. You can see that we recover from nearly complete collapse of the EZ to today's (outside of Cyprus the last 2 days). Bond market don't lie and there is no room for interpretation there. They have plunged and even Portugal was upgraded and they are aiming to renter the markets. I don't think anybody can't deny it. No even Dr Doom and even the almighty Soros now. This doesn't mean that the EZ is booming it just mean is not collapsing...

If you include trading and TA in perspective, the euro has move +1700 pips since then, sure Dec looks neutral now but in context is just a natural move back (so far) after such strong reversal in weekly and monthly. Btw, long term charts are still in downtrend but those levels are far from current market levels.

In simple words, the thin line I am talking about is that the first swing you mention from Dec 1.287x to 1.370x in my trading plan is unmissable because a 1000 tick move in 4 months is inside my swing range and my trading time. The same apply to the move back from 1.370x to the levels right now.

I will be wrong (trading wise) to just sit down and just say yes euro is going nowhere mid term and is going to be back to the same levels in 3 months, therefore I don't take 2 1000 ticks swings... Point is, that the mid term swing FA wise (the analyst part) was to ride the wave in December via risk on with whatever charts or tools you use and sell when risk has almost fade completely and equities start decoupling from risk (exactly US equities to all time highs move that started a few weeks ago).... T

The Cyprus issue is just risk short term and is not the one in play for the macro view in my books (except in the extreme case that creates panic and break up of the EZ, etc ).

In any case, watchout ECB on the wires .... and as we know... we only listen to them...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #131,815
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:36pm Mar 19, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting Venice
oops. lol./ What's got everyone all riled up now?
yea and the QueenB is happy
  • #131,816
  • Edited 2:47pm Mar 19, 2013 2:43pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting lumesh
I stand by the fact that it was a MONETARY POLICY short term move not a fundamental move.
Hi,

how about fundamental move caused by short term monetary policy? Btw, I aint sure half a year can be called short term. I was in bear camp as well, and didnt believe FED can launch unlimited easing in such a magnitude. But its not only FED, its CB union. Just take a look at ECB, BOJ or BOE they all print, and I aint talking about swap lines with FED. Back when I was at school, I ve been taught CB cant stand against market for long time, we were told they can survive like three month. And here we are, sovereign debt crisis is running for more than 2 years and Italian and Spanish 10y junk bonds are trading @ 5%.

I think I aint having crisis fatigue (Read "Can has been kicked down the road for such a long time, that it seems nothing is happening."), but it seems, that thanks to the CB union, monetary policy became quite powerfull tool. Balance sheets of CBs across the world are going hyperbolic and from technical perspective, hyperbolic move has no end. Ofc bubble will burst one day, but it doesnt need to be anytime soon.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #131,817
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:45pm Mar 19, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting sisse
Oh I see where you coming from now...no no problem at all I see what you mean.

Well the question is defining that thin line between being right as trader and being right as analyst (the best, is being right in both). For example going back to your case in December.

If you isolate the case as analyse without charts or trading context and taking a mid term perspective (minimum for an analyst) I agree and you were absolutely right FA wise. Things don't just fade without real changes and 100% Euro was not going to fly to the moon, it...

Can't seem to find anything i disagree with.

Btw, what's your take on cable, then ?
  • #131,818
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:51pm Mar 19, 2013 2:51pm
Quoting AllyB
yea and the QueenB is happy
i am also happy

i have a bank account in Cyprus

no i am not Russian

and last time i laundered money was when i forgot 2 x $5 bills in my pants and the washing machine ate both of them
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #131,819
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:00pm Mar 19, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting lumesh
Can't seem to find anything i disagree with.

Btw, what's your take on cable, then ?
Major break in play (also in Q if break hold 1,533x). Hammered 1/2 on purpose by the BOE (a.k.a currency war ....artificially devaluing Sterling to try squeeze some pennies from their European counterparts) and 1/2 everything upside down macroeconomic wise. Highest inflation in Europe, High unemployment, Austerity without expected result, poor manufacturing and services numbers and to put the cherry on top Osborn will fail again to meet deficit target (unbelievable really).

So a dark cloud there. 1.44xx naked mid term. Only dollar via FED can save the day in the next swing (with the Q close) and delay the unavoidable given the current number and conditions .... Q close is the only one left for bulls.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #131,820
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:11pm Mar 19, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting Gleneagles
i am also happy

i have a bank account in Cyprus

no i am not Russian

and last time i laundered money was when i forgot 2 x $5 bills in my pants and the washing machine ate both of them

totally speechless other than i am SO glad your happy
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