NZD/USD

Hello traders,
an update for the USD Dollar Index that can be helpful not only for trading the EUR/USD (52% of the Dollar Index) but also the other major pairs USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

We had a sequence a of two traditional measured moves higher: the first with long entry in the 82.30 area with target in 83. The second with entry in the 82.70 area and targets at 83.40 (today's highs). We now have a new (third) long setup in the sequence at the 83.00 area (check the picture below).

The third long setup just traded: support was shown at the 83.01 level. This long setup has a stop, and failure level, below 82.90. Below this level the sequence of measured move is interrupted and we could see the start of the move lower in the Dollar Index (Scenario 1)

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363277753

Here are my two scenarios, as usual:

Scenario 1. If price comes below the 82.90 level the sequence of measured moves higher on the daily chart ends and price could start its move towards the 20-day SMA (partial targets area). The move could then continue lower after a bounce.

Scenario 2. If the next setup long on the daily chart is respected, i.e. price of the index never moves below 82.90 there is the possibility of a continuation higher into the next target at the 83.60 area (1st target) and even higher.

Let me know what you think.
Thank you

PS: Euro FX futures just approaching the resistance at 1.3000 in my last analysis

AUD and NZD normally are pretty much in line with each other. Look at the date of any major rise or fall on a daily/weekly chart, and you'll see both pairs show almost identical price action on the same date. Yet this is the second time in three months one currency is deviating from the other - NZD is scraping against 8200 and 8150 support while AUD has just flown in the past few days, and isnt too far from .04xx.

Unsure what to make of this.

I wonder how the week will start. There is Westpac data coming for NZD soon.

NZDUSD:
BUY
If the price breaks through the level 0.82453 bullish movement will start. Targets of the bullish movement: 0.82760.
SELL
If the price breaks through the level 0.81546 bearish movement will start. Targets of the bearish movement: 0.80959, 0.80371.

it always works!!!

For NZDUSD I propose to SELL and take profit 0.82175 in this case stop loss will be 0.82595.

NZD/USD is still around its resistance at 0.8330 which is a big resistance point. If it passes which is touch to say it will it would lead its way up to at least 0.8510 and at that point we may see it come down its way back to 0.8161 to try and break resistance down below. It could be another of couple of months before it goes down to 0.7867.

NZDUSD:
My prediction for NZDUSD I consider that rather good choice is to BUY to target 0.83305 and stop loss at the level 0.83225.Have a profitable day.

+21 pips scalping.
as you can see daily pivot is holding strong.

closed my 2 shorts.
+20pips I could of hold on longer but not liking the fact PA just would not budge down so made me become cautious that up move still has gas in the tank.

Another +17pips
Starting to get lonely here making money alone.WTF where is everyone.

I would like to see it get up to 84.00 before shorting.

momentum is down.
It may not reach that high.

NZDUSD:
Well I think it is better to put an order at selling and take profit 0.83332 and stop loss will be at the level 0.83680.

+50pips

3 shorts
65,70,80
TP to be determined depending on Price Action

Same here Davit, sold quite a high volume at 0.8368, waiting for the dip

Hi
One way to assure great entry is utilizing limit orders.Most of my trades are placed on key numbers and I wait until filled.Stop loss 20pips
This way if there is spike you will get triggered at great price.
This pair is highly correlated with Aussie dollar so when Aussie falls almost always Kiwi falls as well.
Good trading

Let's just say, the recent fundamental figure from NZ was the trade balance, if I am correct, it was from the last quarter, when the NZD was quite low. This basically means that the RBNZ would try to push the NZD lower by verbal, so this is a good trade to hold onto.

I day trade only and will not hold trades more then few days most because of negative interest in selling.
Fundamentals are important but I look for current mood and momentum.