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  • #1,561
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:40pm Mar 18, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting stevexyg
Across the EU all private bank savings of upto 100k Euros (80k GBP) per person, per institution, are protected with governmental/EU insurance scheme. There is no consensus anywhere to change that. This particular idea of taking a percentage of Cypriot bank savers deposits has apparently been largely proposed jointly by the ECB and Cypriot Government because 'Cyprus's banking structure [is] different from others in the eurozone, with fewer private bondholders, there [has] to be a tax on ordinary savers.' Now neither could be said to be socialist...
Socialist policies always hurt the ordinary person. The rich and powerful will always exempt themselves through either policy loopholes or by having their funds safely tucked away out of reach of the government machine. Only in a truly free capitalist society can the average person rise above their "station".
  • #1,562
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:43pm Mar 18, 2013 12:43pm
Glad you started this thread and specified the difference between support/resistance that's extremely subjective and coincidental (e.g. a random head and shoulders) vs. objective support/resistance, such as highs/lows, session opens/closes, fixes (not sure if you mentioned fixes actually but nonethelesss).


That being said, I'm surprised nobody mentioned that 1.2990 was last week's open. In addition to 1.2995 (circa, depending on your broker) as Friday's low. Lot of resistance, and the 12 EDT/16 UTC bar which happened to be the widest range bar (15m), making new daily highs... screamed short.

Quoting Seneca pilot
Socialist policies always hurt the ordinary person. The rich and powerful will always exempt themselves through either policy loopholes or by having their funds safely tucked away out of reach of the government machine. Only in a truly free capitalist society can the average person rise above their "station".
I realize this is your thread, but for the love of Jesus/Allah/Buddha/Flying Spaghetti Monster, please don't ruin your own thread by bringing up the socialist/capitalist stuff. Having seen politics discussed on these forums before, it's very clear that while there are many smart people here, few are actually educated enough to have a credible opinion on politics, and it will turn into a stupid argument!
  • #1,563
  • Mar 18, 2013 1:00pm Mar 18, 2013 1:00pm
said it at the start of the thread, but interesting video

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #1,564
  • Mar 18, 2013 1:16pm Mar 18, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting smittens4212
Glad you started this thread and specified the difference between support/resistance that's extremely subjective and coincidental (e.g. a random head and shoulders) vs. objective support/resistance, such as highs/lows, session opens/closes, fixes (not sure if you mentioned fixes actually but nonethelesss).


That being said, I'm surprised nobody mentioned that 1.2990 was last week's open. In addition to 1.2995 (circa, depending on your broker) as Friday's low. Lot of resistance, and the 12 EDT/16 UTC bar which happened to be the widest range...
I did mention the gold fixes and give the times but I have never figured out a way to trade them. If you have a method for them that is based on hard stats I would love to hear about it.

I don't focus too much on opens from previous weeks. We did talk about the Friday low. Price didn't quite reach it on my feed. I try not to have too many levels on the charts. The little testing experiment I suggested on Friday was an attempt to help people realize how little you need on a chart to be successful but very few responded with any test results. I know the numbers but find it sad that so few care to dig.

As for the politics I will probably regret ever bringing it up. We had a good thing going here in the US until Woodrow Wilson screwed it up.
  • #1,565
  • Mar 18, 2013 1:28pm Mar 18, 2013 1:28pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Socialist policies always hurt the ordinary person. The rich and powerful will always exempt themselves through either policy loopholes or by having their funds safely tucked away out of reach of the government machine. Only in a truly free capitalist society can the average person rise above their "station".
Bearing in mind smittens warning () I will only say that there is actually no support or actual manifestation of genuine/radical Socialism in European politics and there hasn't been for decades. All the major parties in power over the past 30 years whether of the 'left' or 'right' have actively sponsored or implicitly encouraged the free market, private investment, privatisation of publicly owned industry, unregulated international banking etc. Obviously that last one explains why Europe hasn't exactly escaped the global financial crisis! I'm in the UK and understandably am therefore UK-centric so can't be 100% on the ins and outs of Danish politics for example but here the UK 'Socialist Party' has probably 0.01% of the population as supporters and most of them will be reactionary students who when they get a job and a real life will end up voting for a main-stream party. Socialism died shortly after WW2. Well that's my view but I'm no expert on the specifics of when it died, but it is dead. It seems the luxuries of western civilization has made everyone in it a capitalist at heart.
  • #1,566
  • Mar 18, 2013 1:34pm Mar 18, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I know the numbers but find it sad that so few care to dig.
I'm still digging will pm asap. Thanks dude. Was Woodrow Wilson in the Beach Boys?
  • #1,567
  • Mar 18, 2013 1:43pm Mar 18, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting stevexyg
I'm still digging will pm asap. Thanks dude. Was Woodrow Wilson in the Beach Boys?
He was a President. I don't wish to go into this too much as Smittens is right, it can only lead to a bad place.
  • #1,568
  • Mar 18, 2013 1:58pm Mar 18, 2013 1:58pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
He was a President. I don't wish to go into this too much as Smittens is right, it can only lead to a bad place.
No worries, was just joking I knew he was a President. You should be reassured the fact the thread hasn't blown up already in a political free for all means it's populated with balanced level headed readers. That says a lot for the type of members you've attracted - there is a distinct lack of muppets here, myself excluded. You could just be lucky SP or maybe you are doing something right.
  • #1,569
  • Mar 18, 2013 2:39pm Mar 18, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting 60minuteman
said it at the start of the thread, but interesting video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoG3zC-rybk
Yes that's actually very interesting, he's apparently right in that most people see the open and close of the candlestick on even say a 5 min chart as the significant levels when infact it's just where price happened to be when the clock got round to the next 5mins? Surely the full width of the price movement is more significant?

The proviso being ofcourse, and especially in relation to this thread, is that the price level at a specific time is more relevant than a recent price range when that specific time involves a significant event eg Middle East and Russians opening their trading day (5GMT). Or simply when a specific time shows a statistical likelihood to cause a price reaction later (5GMT).

So can we conclude that price range is more meaningful than price point (in time) except when there is a significant time point involved? How does that effect candle body based trading decisions?
  • #1,570
  • Mar 18, 2013 2:42pm Mar 18, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I did mention the gold fixes and give the times but I have never figured out a way to trade them. If you have a method for them that is based on hard stats I would love to hear about it.

I don't focus too much on opens from previous weeks. We did talk about the Friday low. Price didn't quite reach it on my feed. I try not to have too many levels on the charts. The little testing experiment I suggested on Friday was an attempt to help people realize how little you need on a chart to be successful but very few responded with any test results....
Nope, nothing for fixes from me-- something I would love to see discussed in the scheme of things, though (for anyone who could comment). Options expirations might be another to throw in there (I believe options generally settle at specific and consistent times, but I digress).

Agree about minimizing levels, though. I use weekly open/close as a sort of pivot if we're on the same side of both (in today's case we opened below both, with the open being the first resistance of the day).
  • #1,571
  • Mar 18, 2013 4:45pm Mar 18, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting stevexyg
Yes that's actually very interesting, he's apparently right in that most people see the open and close of the candlestick on even say a 5 min chart as the significant levels when infact it's just where price happened to be when the clock got round to the next 5mins? Surely the full width of the price movement is more significant?

The proviso being ofcourse, and especially in relation to this thread, is that the price level at a specific time is more relevant than a recent price range when that specific time involves a significant...
yes Steve, and daily open, closes that are also at previous hi/low prices will be more potent...

The way I see it is the high and low represent the true s/r of the given period, the open close represent direction and sentiment...
tradewith60
  • #1,572
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:01pm Mar 18, 2013 6:01pm
Quoting 60minuteman
yes Steve, and daily open, closes that are also at previous hi/low prices will be more potent...

The way I see it is the high and low represent the true s/r of the given period, the open close represent direction and sentiment...
Yes. I like to trade the weekly open and close but I salivate when price is approaching a weekly high or low. Same for daily levels.
  • #1,573
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:24pm Mar 18, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting stevexyg
Yes that's actually very interesting, he's apparently right in that most people see the open and close of the candlestick on even say a 5 min chart as the significant levels when infact it's just where price happened to be when the clock got round to the next 5mins? Surely the full width of the price movement is more significant?

The proviso being ofcourse, and especially in relation to this thread, is that the price level at a specific time is more relevant than a recent price range when that specific time involves a significant...
Five GMT is the time that those players come into the market and that is important but I didn't tell the whole story. There are definate reasons that I chose that particular time. Often the draw down from my daily open trades will go to some other level. The thing you can't ever know is which level will hold sway on a particular day. My daily open though seems to most often fall into a range that includes many important prices. I find that the price I chose for my daily open will often be very near or the same as the US close/rollover and midnight, London close, Tokyo open, London midnight, etc. This stacking of price levels is really the reason for price turning at this point more often than others. There is nothing inherently special about 05:00GMT other than that it often is aligned with other important prices. Highs and lows speak for themselves.

On the house
  • #1,574
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:40pm Mar 18, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Yes. I like to trade the weekly open and close but I salivate when price is approaching a weekly high or low. Same for daily levels.
yep, same here, it's just trading s/r, real s/r... but very rarely taught this way, the correct way... So hats off to you for doing it!
tradewith60
  • #1,575
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:14am Mar 19, 2013 2:14am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Five GMT is the time that those players come into the market and that is important but I didn't tell the whole story. There are definate reasons that I chose that particular time. Often the draw down from my daily open trades will go to some other level. The thing you can't ever know is which level will hold sway on a particular day. My daily open though seems to most often fall into a range that includes many important prices. I find that the price I chose for my daily open will often be very near or the same as the US close/rollover and midnight,...
I have also changed from Frankfurt Open(07:00 GMT/02:00 EST with Range from 04:00 GMT to 07:00 GMT) To London Open(08:00 GMT/03:00 EST with Range from 05:00 GMT to 08:00 GMT) as the latter doesn't give me clear results.

On my Platform(GMT+2), London Open(10:00 AM Open with Range from 07:00 AM High/Low to 09:00 AM High/Low)
  • #1,576
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:54am Mar 19, 2013 3:54am
Please people go back as far as you can and test the daily open 05:00GMT. What is the percentage of winners there at 1/1-1.5/1-2/1? Test the daily highs and lows. What is the percentage of winners there at 1/1-1.5/1-2/1? Is there any particular day of the week that loses more than the rest? Wins more than the rest? Can you trade successfully from just one of these areas each day? Can you devise a method where you use the three together? Do you need any other prices highlited on the chart?

Most of you won't do this. For those of you who will, please PM me your results. How many total trades? How many winners? How many losers? Average drawdown? Average winner? ......


Hello everyone!
First of all, Seneca thank you so much for sharing your valuable experience and knowledge.
With your thread I’m closer to say I was blind but now I see.
So really appreciate your help.

I started the project on EJ Daily open (only). I’m planning to test 2010-2012.
I finished 2010. I like the results so far. It´s really impressive the accuracy of how price react to those levels.
My current status (junior) doesn’t allow to pm you. However, I think you can send me an email (if you can see it, otherwise I´ll post it) so I can reply with the results.

Thanks,
bato

Sorry for my English, still learning.
  • #1,577
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:16am Mar 19, 2013 6:16am
Quoting bato
Please people go back as far as you can and test the daily open 05:00GMT. What is the percentage of winners there at 1/1-1.5/1-2/1? Test the daily highs and lows. What is the percentage of winners there at 1/1-1.5/1-2/1? Is there any particular day of the week that loses more than the rest? Wins more than the rest? Can you trade successfully from just one of these areas each day? Can you devise a method where you use the three together? Do you need any other prices highlited on the chart?

[i]Most of you won't do this....
Add in those highs and lows. You will like the results of that also.

Each of the four main pairs had a winning trade off the daily open today. GU bounced off the Monday low and went to the Monday high. Draw down on that trade 1.6 pips.

I wasn't awake for the GU trade up but I did catch this before bed. I took a quick profit here because I didn't think there would be much market movement until the savings theft vote later today.
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  • #1,578
  • Mar 19, 2013 8:53am Mar 19, 2013 8:53am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Five GMT is the time that those players come into the market and that is important but I didn't tell the whole story. There are definate reasons that I chose that particular time. Often the draw down from my daily open trades will go to some other level. The thing you can't ever know is which level will hold sway on a particular day...

On the house
Brilliant, that explains a question I hadn't but subconsciously formulated. So now I need to have a proper look at the Harris Trading and Exchanges PDF you posted. ;-)
  • #1,579
  • Mar 19, 2013 8:56am Mar 19, 2013 8:56am
Posted by Seneca pilot
Add in those highs and lows. You will like the results of that also.


After finishing 2011-12, I´ll start testing highs and lows. Just want to know the percentages separately.
Interesting how useful can be keeping previous (daily open) levels. For the test I kept them for periods of weeks.
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  • #1,580
  • Mar 20, 2013 2:04am Mar 20, 2013 2:04am
Trading the London Breakout on EU at the same time with news can be wacky. If you don't put stops. It was actually like a Frankie Fake.
It played out well on GBP pairs
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