Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

You come up with the best charts. Not sure where to place an order though

Thats me done, e/u started being stubborn but oil was a pure beauty caught it going down then going up, be good

Lao Tzu, 6th century BC

2975 above bought and now this setup is working out well 3008 is tp . and sl marked 2962

i guess that was not aimed at me, i do not predict lol

Hello all,
this is my updated view on the Euro.

The gap down in the morning due to news, coming from Cyprus, brought price right into that 1.2900 area where I anticipate long participation since a few weeks now. A few people think today's price action is going to change the Euro weekly patterns (those very same people could have their head handed over to them if they traded the news today), but the pattern will only change if price moves below the 1.2715 level. I am talking about swing trades here (those who read my post know that's my trading style).

Some people remain objective in the face of news and the emotions they bring about. I will keep trading my method that has served me nicely and I believe it will keep doing so. I am living for a planned trip abroad so I will leave my longer-term view on FF. I will return on April the 7th and will resume posting after that. I know some people don't like my style of analysis and trading (of course, could it be different? We are all different) and I am not going to argue with them. I write for those who want to have access to a slightly different read of the markets to entertain or help complement their own analysis.

Hereunder the chart and the analysis:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363624976

The scenarios I see are the following:

Scenario 1. This is the original scenario which is still up and running, besides yesterday's Cyprus news. This is the highest probability scenario.I believe the market knew already what was happening in Cyprus since a few weeks and this was reflected in price. I am more prone to believe that price has already discounted this, rather than the opposite. If this news was truly affecting the Euro currency, we would have probably seen price continue lower in the morning instead of reversing. Also Euro price tested the 200-day SMA, watched by a lot of retail traders. We have seen the Euro rally in the face of the hardest times in Europe in the last 3-4 years. Nothing to be surprised of. Of course, anything can happen, but I will stick to the long weekly pattern my method is giving me, until that pattern is invalidated. Swing targets in the 1.4090-1.4100 area.

Scenario 2. Should price keep moving lower and through the 1.2715 level (lower probability), I would then anticipate price moving down into the next long level participated by Program Trading, which is 1.2650. Here two different scenarios could open up: 2a and 2b.

Scenario 2a. Price could find participation into the next level of participation on the downside at the 1.3180 area; at this stage 2 more scenario would open up (2a,1 and 2a,2, see below)

Scenario 2b. Price could just keep moving lower and below 1.2515 a retest of 1.2140 would be possible.

Scenario 2a,1. Once at 1.3180, price could just continue higher above 1.3320; or

Scenario 2a,2. Once at 1.3180, price could continue lower towards its first target at the 1.24 area.

Good luck to you all and see you soon.
Cheers
G.

nop.. don't panic

just found this quote on my status.. [fb]

Im looking the same. Clearing [daily] 1.3090, and we are looking at 1.33, which If we close weekly above.. then .. we go for new attack on previous High..

a POMO a day keeps the ______ away

can never get enough of Piters, right boys

moar Piters, moar!

http://oneseasonnation.com/www/wp-co.../kyle_moar.jpg

.......good trading day for you ah sir. billytt, congrats.......

did you took profits already prashant7?

hello peters nice to see you around.......

no need to be embarrassed....you know me....just telling it like it is ;-/

very good analisis and scenarios, like usual fib........thanks.......

markets are gething harder and harder to predict lately and it will get worse me think, I'm trying to grab a few pennys just to keep in the game, but I'm afraid of the long time frames with those big stops and small stops are gething hit also, this yoyo action up and down hit all stops around, crazy out there.....good set ups are hard to find more and more, is easier to find a good pic than a good set up.....

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...43572548_n.jpg

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...04489343_n.png

Peter embarrassed?

http://oneseasonnation.com/www/wp-co.../kyle_moar.jpg

shy