Ramblings of a Forex Junkie | Page 72 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Forex Trading: Incorporating Price Behavior into a Forex Trading System 4 replies

Forex Training: What to Look for in a Forex Training Program 1 reply

The Journal Of A Macro Fundamental & Technical Analysis Junkie 26 replies

Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer 147 replies

Attachments: Ramblings of a Forex Junkie
Exit Attachments

Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #1,421
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:16am Mar 14, 2013 10:16am
Quoting dedoctor
Thanks for the answer. I have not seen much honesty in other trading threads as you post here. A good method is one that can recoup losses and mistakes made by trader and that is what you we see here. Although I have not started trading this method. Well done.
I am up just over ten percent for the month of March. I have made plenty of mistakes and missed lots of trades due to sleeping during the best market times. The method gives so much opportunity to someone who can trade it properly and stay awake and alert to trade it. Just the news trading can give good results if you are selective. Only trade high impact news. Today was a good example EU has already made 2/1 on the unemployment news.
  • #1,422
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:21am Mar 14, 2013 10:21am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I am the Marines when it comes to trading mistakes. I make more mistakes by 8AM than most people make all day.

Luckily I trade a method that lets me overcome the mistakes and make a profit. I actually took three trades last night and squeaked out a profit even with the GJ screw-up

If you guys are looking for trading perfection your on the wrong thread. You should be in the systems area where the traders only ever post their winners.
LoL. I stomached many mistakes on London Open too. the breakout on EU criss-cossed the range. but its always for the greater good. I had to relie on EJ and GJ. It has turned out to be a good day.Taking a rest.
  • #1,423
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:25am Mar 14, 2013 10:25am
Quoting diamonddbw
Much convo regard sup/dem levels. To my understanding, these levels tend to work the best when they are fresh. Meaning these levels hold up better upon the 1st visit back to them.

My question is regarding D-W-Monthly & Open/Close levels. Do they also work best on 1st retest?

My initial observations say no. It seems to me that they will totally fail one time and be solid gold the next. jmo

Thanks
Any level will lose some of its effectiveness if tested many times. The market mechanics are the reason for this. Each time a level is tested from below more of the sell orders are absorbed. Once all the sell orders are gone, presto the level is broken. As soon as the level breaks the orders stack up again, now though, they are from the buy side. Limit orders are the liquidity, they stop price. The resulting market orders that come in when players see that price has stopped cause the move to reverse away. If you guys have read the papers I linked you know this.
  • #1,424
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:36am Mar 14, 2013 10:36am
Quoting square1
LoL. I stomached many mistakes on London Open too. the breakout on EU criss-cossed the range. but its always for the greater good. I had to relie on EJ and GJ. It has turned out to be a good day.Taking a rest.
This has been a difficult week for the post 80 breakout method. Last week was good though and the odds are that next week will be good too.
  • #1,425
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:40am Mar 14, 2013 10:40am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Any level will lose some of its effectiveness if tested many times. The market mechanics are the reason for this. Each time a level is tested from below more of the sell orders are absorbed. Once all the sell orders are gone, presto the level is broken. As soon as the level breaks the orders stack up again, now though, they are from the buy side. Limit orders are the liquidity, they stop price. The resulting market orders that come in when players see that price has stopped cause the move to reverse away. If you guys have read the papers I linked...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks SP.

I attempted 7 trades today. I posted the GU Win & Loss.

The other 5 were BE +2 & 4 losses.

Just wanted to point out that the GU win covered 60% of the 4 losers. The better I understand this method the more likely it seems that this is one of the best ways to deal with market gyrations.
  • #1,426
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:56am Mar 14, 2013 10:56am
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks SP.

I attempted 7 trades today. I posted the GU Win & Loss.

The other 5 were BE +2 & 4 losses.

Just wanted to point out that the GU win covered 60% of the 4 losers. The better I understand this method the more likely it seems that this is one of the best ways to deal with market gyrations.
I see you live in the central time zone. Are you able to trade during the european and London sessions or do you do most of your trading during NY?
  • #1,427
  • Mar 14, 2013 11:07am Mar 14, 2013 11:07am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I see you live in the central time zone. Are you able to trade during the european and London sessions or do you do most of your trading during NY?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Adjusting my schedule to go to bed earlier so I can get up about 2 hours before LO. Yesterday worked fine for that schedule and good thing I did get up 2 hours early cuz had internet issues to deal with. But it's definitely a tough transition. Central time may be the worst for trading London, as the time is usually 2am here. Hawaii sounds better & better, except for EarthQuakes, Tsunamis & Volcanic activity...
  • #1,428
  • Mar 14, 2013 11:18am Mar 14, 2013 11:18am
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Adjusting my schedule to go to bed earlier so I can get up about 2 hours before LO. Yesterday worked fine for that schedule and good thing I did get up 2 hours early cuz had internet issues to deal with. But it's definitely a tough transition. Central time may be the worst for trading London, as the time is usually 2am here. Hawaii sounds better & better, except for EarthQuakes, Tsunamis & Volcanic activity...
Ok that should be good if you can adjust to the schedule. You probably know already that you overtraded today. Seven trades is too much. I take seven trades some weeks with the key levels method. I recommend to you that you take one trade on a euro pair and one on a pound pair during the european and London sessions. Once you are in those trades you can manage things and make changes where needed. Don't make the mistake I did last night and pick the entry you feel most comfortable with. Take the FIRST trade that is triggered for the day and manage from there. The only time you want to take additional trades is after a stop out or if you want to take a news trade later in the day after your first trades hit profit targets. The levels trades are my first priority and if you take a little time and investigate their accuracy you will see why.
  • #1,429
  • Edited 11:44am Mar 14, 2013 11:22am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Adjusting my schedule to go to bed earlier so I can get up about 2 hours before LO. Yesterday worked fine for that schedule and good thing I did get up 2 hours early cuz had internet issues to deal with. But it's definitely a tough transition. Central time may be the worst for trading London, as the time is usually 2am here. Hawaii sounds better & better, except for EarthQuakes, Tsunamis & Volcanic activity...
For the next two weeks London open is 3AM for you. Enjoy "sleeping in".
  • #1,430
  • Mar 14, 2013 11:57am Mar 14, 2013 11:57am
Quoting Seneca pilot
The method gives so much opportunity to someone who can trade it properly and stay awake and alert to trade it. Just the news trading can give good results if you are selective. Only trade high impact news. Today was a good example EU has already made 2/1 on the unemployment news.
Honestly I have never seen a better news method than the one here. All you hear is straddle this and that or jump in when the market is moving fast. Like you said, we don't have to make 100 pips on NFP or any other volatile news to be successful. This method killed the tension usually experience by traders during news. I will one day try it on demo and report here. I know a trader who trades only news and doubles his account monthly. If I have say $100,000 in my account oh my God, may be then I will take four trades a month with laser accuracy. But unfortunately, am still a $100 trader and with time and compounding, I will get there.
  • #1,431
  • Mar 14, 2013 12:10pm Mar 14, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
For the next two weeks London open is 3AM for you. Enjoy "sleeping in".
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks. Your sense of humor is almost as bad as mine...
  • #1,432
  • Mar 14, 2013 12:14pm Mar 14, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I am up just over ten percent for the month of March. I have made plenty of mistakes and missed lots of trades due to sleeping during the best market times. The method gives so much opportunity to someone who can trade it properly and stay awake and alert to trade it. Just the news trading can give good results if you are selective. Only trade high impact news. Today was a good example EU has already made 2/1 on the unemployment news.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I agree that the news strategy looks solid. Today both GU and AU responded in kind. I will explore how often this happens. Could be nice add on.

I have looked at this during London GU releases and it seems that GU M15 bars are the meat of many of it's moves.
  • #1,433
  • Mar 14, 2013 12:30pm Mar 14, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I agree that the news strategy looks solid. Today both GU and AU responded in kind. I will explore how often this happens. Could be nice add on.

I have looked at this during London GU releases and it seems that GU M15 bars are the meat of many of it's moves.

I focus primarily on the US news releases. It is the biggest economy in the world and the US news hits when London and the US markets are in full swing.
  • #1,434
  • Mar 14, 2013 12:53pm Mar 14, 2013 12:53pm
Ok London is closed. What happened today?

EU) This was an odd day for EU. The daily open triggered a trade long During the London open and it ran out of gas at about 1/1. When the price broke below the daily open there was no retest. A long at the Wednesday low was the trade of the day. The big engulfing news bar was the fuel to make price run up almost hitting the Wednesday high.

EJ) No trade triggered off the daily open. If you sold the weekly open/close levels or the daily high you were left wanting more as the drop was not very enthusiastic. I think that as the yen nears 100 to the dollar that it will be tough to trade and I expect the dollar pairs to behave best for the coming few weeks/months.

GU) Another perfect day for GU. Daily open triggered and the draw down was minimal. This pair is on quite a winning streak this week.

GJ) I discussed my mistake with this one already today. The previous week close was touched almost to the pip today and I could have bought the low of the day here. I was in front of the computer when this entry hit. I had sold the London close and took profit at this touch for a quick scalp. Why I didn't enter long instead of waiting for the second trade I don't know. I broke a big rule with this as I insist that the trade I take is the FIRST level hit for the day. A big lapse in discipline but I am human.

Not a bad in all. EU was a little tough to trade but either of the pound pairs would have made up for any loss in the euro pairs. This is why I recommend taking one euro trade and one pound trade.

As a side note I have been looking at dollar swiss a bit of late. I haven't traded it before but it seems that it does well with levels and trades very nicely around news. Seems a little smoother and allows for nice tight stops.

I know we have weekly levels and closes and breakout levels all on our charts but I would like you guys to do a project this weekend. Go back as far as you can and eliminate everything but the daily open and the previous day high and low. Look at the trade every day with just these three lines. Take the first hit each day and look at how things work. You can trade successfully with just these three lines every day. The other stuff is nice but not absolutely necessary.

Hope it helps.
  • #1,435
  • Mar 14, 2013 12:56pm Mar 14, 2013 12:56pm
@ Seneca.

I have been watching and learning this method and am currently backtesting a non FX market to find my way of trading it. I have more backtesting to do, however the results look very encouraging and pip perfect in most cases. I am finding my own little nuances and am really enjoying working them out.

Once I am happy with my method, I will begin forward testing on a small live account. Just wanted to say thanks for demonstrating parts of your method.
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #1,436
  • Mar 14, 2013 1:15pm Mar 14, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I would like you guys to do a project this weekend. Go back as far as you can and eliminate everything but the daily open and the previous day high and low. Look at the trade every day with just these three lines. Take the first hit each day and look at how things work. You can trade successfully with just these three lines every day. The other stuff is nice but not absolutely necessary.

Hope it helps.
Seems you knew what I was thinking. Too many lines can lead to information paralysis. I will see how it goes. I like KISS - keep It Simple Straightforward or Stupid.
  • #1,437
  • Mar 14, 2013 1:29pm Mar 14, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting fisheggs
@ Seneca.

I have been watching and learning this method and am currently backtesting a non FX market to find my way of trading it. I have more backtesting to do, however the results look very encouraging and pip perfect in most cases. I am finding my own little nuances and am really enjoying working them out.

Once I am happy with my method, I will begin forward testing on a small live account. Just wanted to say thanks for demonstrating parts of your method.

This works well on all markets. Index, equities, metals, softs, Oil, pretty much anything you can think of. Of course the opens, closes, etc. will be specific to each product but the basic method is the same.
  • #1,438
  • Mar 14, 2013 1:29pm Mar 14, 2013 1:29pm
Seneca, I enjoy all three methods you described (levels, news and breakout) but the simplest of all by far is the opening range breakout. Whenever I have very little time during the day I only play the range breakout.

You said it, this week was a litte tough with a few losers...but today I took the retest off the range after the short trade was stopped out.
Closed half at 1/1, stop at BE. Let's see how far this one goes...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: breakout eu.png Size: 23 KB
  • #1,439
  • Mar 14, 2013 1:47pm Mar 14, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Seneca, I enjoy all three methods you described (levels, news and breakout) but the simplest of all by far is the opening range breakout. Whenever I have very little time during the day I only play the range breakout.

You said it, this week was a litte tough with a few losers...but today I took the retest off the range after the short trade was stopped out.
Closed half at 1/1, stop at BE. Let's see how far this one goes...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good going 'O'. I'm glad you pointed this one out 'cuz I did not notice it this late in the day.

Looks like you could have held on for nearly 3:1. When you open your own bank, let me know.... lol
  • #1,440
  • Mar 14, 2013 1:50pm Mar 14, 2013 1:50pm
SP, reading your daily updates has done me (and I'm sure others) a huge benefit. So glad you began.
1 trader viewing now