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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

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  • #43,301
  • Edited 10:21am Mar 13, 2013 10:01am | Edited 10:21am
Quoting dswk
Good Evening.

GBP down ride was nice ...

Now take a look and take care (***warning it's a Weekly chart : NOT Intraday....***) :

Rules: We open a trade ONCE and only ONCE the pattern is completed by another NEW candle (the WEEKLY Candle).... not before. So be patient and check your graphs.
The pattern we track there is this Bull Gartley.. Remember we are on WEEKLY Graph...


We will play the correction but trend is down...so take care....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HFc6x_AtWs

...
And we buy there ... Cable 1.4914 MM engaged, stop of around 100pips.
will buy more if necessary later.
Will see you next month

Inserted Video




This is NOT a daily Scalper trade....

Last weekly chart on Cable :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #43,302
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:23pm Mar 13, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting smikester
I came here to tell Ingmar his Euro chart was spot on but now I've quite forgotten why I came here...
The Chonchy
  • #43,303
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:23pm Mar 13, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting dswk
And we buy there ... Cable 1.4914 MM engaged, stop of around 100pips.
will buy more if necessary later.
Will see you next month

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhrCMIG53XQ



This is NOT a daily Scalper trade....

Last weekly chart on Cable :
The Chonchy
  • #43,304
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:24pm Mar 13, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Ok supply line euro still holding finnaly a break of 1.2950 clearing lots of stops now lets see if just a stophunt and whe grind back again or whe gun for the 1.2870 thats also the place where i wanna go long before the summit so scenario 2 is canceled now i like a long 1.2870 with a 35 pip sl and a target of 1.3250 or i see earlier weakness i get out sooner. Still holding core short and if whe bounce it will be another change to add shorts

Charts are in the old post


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFLPyPnFk8s


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHYDA...JmJNHVxpjS2qMQ...
The Chonchy
  • #43,305
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:35pm Mar 13, 2013 2:35pm
hi chonchy hope your good, i still forgot what i was going to say lol and so has smikester, something to do with trading i think lol, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #43,306
  • Edited 3:00pm Mar 13, 2013 2:47pm | Edited 3:00pm
amaizing technology, wow 3D

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2013_swimsuit/video/
The Chonchy
  • #43,307
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:48pm Mar 13, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting billytt
hi chonchy hope your good, i still forgot what i was going to say lol and so has smikester, something to do with trading i think lol, be good

It happens to me all the time also...... I'm good Sir. billytt, how are you?
The Chonchy
  • #43,308
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:55pm Mar 13, 2013 2:55pm
......
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...o/3d-live.html
The Chonchy
  • #43,309
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:57pm Mar 13, 2013 2:57pm
Ing, I'm there if you want.......skype.......
The Chonchy
  • #43,310
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:11pm Mar 13, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Ok supply line euro still holding finnaly a break of 1.2950 clearing lots of stops now lets see if just a stophunt and whe grind back again or whe gun for the 1.2870 thats also the place where i wanna go long before the summit so scenario 2 is canceled now i like a long 1.2870 with a 35 pip sl and a target of 1.3250 or i see earlier weakness i get out sooner. Still holding core short and if whe bounce it will be another change to add shorts

Charts are in the old post


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFLPyPnFk8s


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHYDA...JmJNHVxpjS2qMQ...
.......A tremendous display of handling that bike, Ing, wow.......
The Chonchy
  • #43,311
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:12pm Mar 13, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting dswk
And we buy there ... Cable 1.4914 MM engaged, stop of around 100pips.
will buy more if necessary later.
Will see you next month

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhrCMIG53XQ



This is NOT a daily Scalper trade....

Last weekly chart on Cable :
.......can I speak with you some time?
The Chonchy
  • #43,312
  • Edited 3:49pm Mar 13, 2013 3:39pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting smikester
I came here to tell Ingmar his Euro chart was spot on but now I've quite forgotten why I came here...


Thanks mate carefull with the yen pairs by the way i can be wrong but i am seeing top buying in the threads around here lol.

Quoting ingmarforex
Ok i am still short 30 yrs but whe are close to some support so might bounce. i know a lot of hedgies etc watching tom demark tdcombo and sequential for exhaustions. The spy is now on a weekly 13 sell, monthly 13 sell if whe close above (1530.94) and whe making in the countdown of a dailly 13 sell. Whe might get a copy of last year probally march chop. Then sell in may and go away kinda scenario. Wonder what your reason is for buying bonds fear? A break above 2% means people unwinding less fear allwel it might comeback on what i dont know what is gonna trigger something probally the debt issue.

Normally higher yields in the safe havens like 10yr means more optimistic about growth better economy improving better growth

What scares me if you look back at 1987 stock crash and 2000 techbubble crash the latest rise has the same angle. So i tend to agree with that guy faber whe gonna get a verry agressive crash allwel i think after that whe will make new highs again if the economy keeps improving the crash can be agressive if you look at history all angels like this in the stockmarket have a fast agressive drop. Then when fear spikes etc it is time to get in if the macro nrs keep improving. Also the pomo doesnt stop. and still 50% on the side lines in the markets. Maybe they suck in here some dumb money. i wouldnt buy here but i would wiat for that drop. And sell maybe in may and go away thinghy first then later the buy. In equities then and also in the yen crosses. and then later buy again when fear gets verry high again but there are some contradicting signals again.

Yen made a strong move broke the 95 handle looks like it is heading for 100 latest medium term rally to suck in the retail to buy the top threads on the yen recently become also verry populair here people scalling in agressive now no stops etc while they where fading the whole upmove mostly so whe could see some agressive move down again then in uy and the crosses what offcourse the retail will buy with lots of risk and no stops what causes some margin calls when that shit starts to happen with lots of fear time to get short the yen again buying crosses and long uy.

So would watch the yen for topping signs. I still got myself some shorts in the yen so long uy and some crosses but not adding here or even buying pullbacks ride them till 100 if it gets there and go short uy or the weakest 1 that can be gbpjpy i think. the drop can be agressive probally in the crosses the most. If whe have somekind of short crash. Just managing till they stop me out or i see a sign to get out . Actually i like the usd the most now We are seeing capital form in the US much like it did in Japan during the late 80s. If usd rates go up dollar will go up. If euro crisis dollar will go up If stocks go down bonds will edge back up in price and dollar.
So buying a basket against other currencies not just eurusd shorts diversify. eur has been coming down just lately while some usd pairs already where rallying and the usd didnt sold of much when eurusd whent up stayed more rangebound long term usd might head for 113. I know qe etc but if growth keeps piking up rates eventually also have to go up etc sayed sometime ago in pm to you that i like the usd but it has lots of bumps but if the risk on risk off thing finnaly tottally can break the usd is the winner why because if the shift is on growth usa is improving. There is a lot of capital going to the usa right now like in japan back in the 80ish.

short term for Eurusd might do what candaian dollar sayed chop around frustrating people whe have a summit comming this week http://www.european-council.europa.e...etings?lang=en the eurocrats will probally say all kind of beautifull things what gives a nice enviroment for hft and pancik sellers and buyers for nice spikes. when eu was trending down when whe where in crissis mode usually i liked to buy before a summit and then sell again 1 day or 2 days after the summit. The only guy who tottally change the trend was draghi not the summits it was something like this crisses deepens, they made a anouncement markets started to rise, summit underway markets peaked they anounced somekind of solution temporally relief. markets peaked again especially eur falled crisen deepens again and they started over again. anouncement of a meeting same blah blah. Now the crisis is mostly gone but they need to do something about growth wanna see those nrs this week from europe i expect if nrs are weak eu is gonna break that 1.2950 and whe drop to 1.2870 80 area where i probally go long then for some upmove in to the summit. if this scenario plays out i am still short this pair and see no reason to cover yet only technicals look for somekind of a bounce it is kinda oversold but i care less about techs. Cad might do well this week agains some other currencies i think.

This just my view and can be completly wrong but he wtf do i know..



Got lots of reasons why i think the crosses are due for some good correction if 1 zoom out to the higher timeframes nikkei at mayor ressitance correlation us equities at mayor ressitance same. Now it doesnt say the uptrend is over but populair threads always come at the end of a move now as you look back in those threads when they started the bull was still in force and people faded the move now they buying so i see it as retail top buying if you look at the run whe had it is normal to have some good correction or yen crosses to comeback to the low of the range 118 or so for example ey gy 137 or so uy i am most bullish on it is still a correction but it is funny people trading there so called long long term monthly charts with 50 pips sl lol and buying tops. Always same shit will never change when gold was at the highs they bought and you see everywhere gold threads now gold is at the lows again less are intrested. If i wanna play longterm why do i wanna buy here yen pairs i rather sit and wait for deeper correction what margins out the pikers again and they get dissorientated again and start shorting. again whe buy lol lol. They will margin out or they lucky but changes are like 80% for option 1 then option 2 same for equities buying here is buying top especially if you longerterm patience sucks but then just spend time on other things

In the eurusd easy money is still shorting draw that supply line i have on the that charts i posted and short rallies in to it yes it overshoot sometimes a pip or 20 over it but wtf it tells me macrofunds are still shorting this pair and i dont see any signs yet that has changed same for cable think that sucker might visit 1.30 every idiotic upmove i will short more usdchf i like longs usdcad the same audusd i like short well whe could see some strength tonight if job nrs are good. and i like aud shorting the less becuase of the intrest and it slow movement because carry buying but for buying around parity might provide better options if china doesnt keep printing worse nrs nzdusd same as audusd also both this pairs lot of ay andny buying keeps lack of momentum to the downside in this to usd pairs.



My conclusion i did some lookback on the yen and and us equities correlation it seems on every yen depraciation whe see another surge higher in stocks.
since november 2012 the correlation is verry strong now on the downside this can be different 1 needs to see but if us stocks correct or even minicrash what could happen at this highs. Not saying that it will but risk reward is skew buying here. Whe could see the yen get a uptick what sends the crosses down the hardest because people go to cash usd mostly so uy will take the smallest hit but crosses more and usd is also a winner in that.


Also i dont think the euro crisis is over reason why is beacause it is flawed look at the recent trade surplus the core 1s are still growing A euro devaluation would only increase the power behind the German export steamroller. Currently, only 38 per cent of German exports go to other eurozone countries. The devaluation would not affect this intra-eurozone trade but it would blow up Germany’s massive trade surplus If anything, core countries needs a stronger currency not a weaker one.

For other eurozone countries, the situation is different. More than half of Spain exports for example go to other eurozone countries and about two thirds to other yuro members. A yuro devaluation would thus have a smaller effect on the Spanish economy although it could at least cut Spain large trade deficit with the rest of the world.

What the euro devalaution would not do however is correct Spain weaknes compared to germany. It would not make Spanish companies more competitive relative to their german busines rivals. it would not increase productivit nor would it reduce relative labour costs within the eurozone. But this is the one aspect of Spains external economic relations that need a fix

devaluation would make a lot of sense for Europes pigs . But in order to work these countries would need to devalue on their own not together with germany and the more productive euro core. So either germany departs from the eurozone and allows a new deutschmark to appreciate or the crisis countries return to peseta lira and drachma and let devalue against US dollar, Stirling and of course the euro itself.Or they spilt up in to 2 euros 1 for the northern and 1 for the south.

Now i dont think euro will crash but it will be in a dead strugle range merkel noted sometime ago she wants to see eu trade between 1.30 1.40 she is still calling the shots there so dont be suprised if eu falls bit more to see some jittery again to lift this thing up on 1 or another way.

I think on the next meeting whe also can expect somethign from the ecb bill gross is cutting his positions and the guy has huge positions in the bondmarket so he maybe knows something whe dont know maybe a rate cut next meeting.

Eurozone core 1s have enough room to act with somekind of stimulus to react to stumulate more growth especially in the weaker countries but they refuse to act and keep going with this austerity. Probally beacuase the germans are scared what happened back then in reichsmark http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsch..._1914_bis_1923 So they keep going this austerity program what rolls the deflationairy spiral only deeper.

Like soros says so nice deflationairy debt trap http://www.bloomberg.com/video/soros...NRqFBf_EA.html

Anyway enough of my rambling and bs


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  • #43,313
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:59pm Mar 13, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting chonchy
Ing, I'm there if you want.......skype.......
On skype now but not for long
  • #43,314
  • Mar 13, 2013 5:07pm Mar 13, 2013 5:07pm
Hello all,
this is my Euro update for a new swing long about to begin. In my humble opinion if you have still swing shorts you should close them.
I don't think all the bad news about Europe automatically signify lower prices, actually the opposite. At the moment it looks like everybody is buying Dollars and selling the Euro: a good environment for a solid chart-based and rule-based analysis.

As usual, use at your own risk.

As anticipated (see the previous analysis) the Euro corrected down into the 1.2900 area, stopping today at 1.2931. I anticipate a bounce higher now from the current price level. We still don't know exactly where the bounce will come from.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363219417

I have the two scenarios below:

Scenario 1. Price is now within an area in which we could see strong participation on the upside. Above 1.3030 (based on current lows at 1.2931) the confirmation of support will come and price will start a move into the 1.4080-1.41 area. The start of the move higher could come from lower levels at 1.2915 or even 1.2840, if price dips lower.

Scenario 2. There is still a possibility price could keep moving lower past the 1.2769 and 1.2712 level (the latter ist he line in the sand). Below 1.2712 we could have a very high probable retest retest of the 1.2130 area of monthly support. However my belief is that scenario 2 has low probability at the moment.

Let me know what you think.
Thank you.
-fibstalker

PS: the video for tomorrow will shortly be on my Blog
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #43,315
  • Edited 12:30am Mar 14, 2013 12:14am | Edited 12:30am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello all,
this is my Euro update for a new swing long about to begin. In my humble opinion if you have still swing shorts you should close them.
I don't think all the bad news about Europe automatically signify lower prices, actually the opposite. At the moment it looks like everybody is buying Dollars and selling the Euro: a good environment for a solid chart-based and rule-based analysis.

As usual, use at your own risk.

As anticipated (see the previous analysis) the Euro corrected down into the 1.2900 area, stopping today at 1.2931....
pff what i think lots of scenarios but which 1 you put your money on enough choices atleast but which 1 you take ???

Or you are a friend of
Inserted Video



Or you put your money on 1 scenario mate???

Just curious which scenario?? no offense
  • #43,316
  • Mar 14, 2013 1:23am Mar 14, 2013 1:23am
Hello Ing,
aha ah ah aa hah that was very funny

thanks for your fair comment. Given that I have nothing to show or recommend and I share my view as is, there is indeed lots still open in the specific case for the Euro. The way I do it is looking at the sequence of measured moves on the 15min and on the daily. If you read the analysis carefully I said that, at current lows (1.2931) the daily sequence will fail above 1.3030. After that support is confirmed and the entry in the long direction can be timed after a retrace.

In every timeframe there is a move up or down in place that I model with a sequence of measured moves. When that sequence is interrupted the move in the opposite direction starts (the reason for that is the presence of program trading on the EUR/USD in all timeframes). That is what I call Fibonacci Stalking, a timing technique, with relates to execution and not the analysis.

I only take swings, just check the "EUR/USD" with all my analysis and decide yourself...
For the rest it works for me, but I understand it may not work for everybody.
Hope that clarifies. If you watch the video, the whole process should be clear at least on the daily chart.
Thanks

Have a great day,
cheers


Quoting ingmarforex
pff what i think lots of scenarios but which 1 you put your money on enough choices atleast but which 1 you take ???

Or you are a friend of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBozBcWZdN8


Or you put your money on 1 scenario mate???

Just curious which scenario?? no offense
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #43,317
  • Mar 14, 2013 2:39am Mar 14, 2013 2:39am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello Ing,
aha ah ah aa hah that was very funny

thanks for your fair comment. Given that I have nothing to show or recommend and I share my view as is, there is indeed lots still open in the specific case for the Euro. The way I do it is looking at the sequence of measured moves on the 15min and on the daily. If you read the analysis carefully I said that, at current lows (1.2931) the daily sequence will fail above 1.3030. After that support is confirmed and the entry in the long direction can be timed after a retrace.

In every timeframe...
Ok thanks for your explanations luckily you found the vid funny and no offense i was just curious how the way you traded it and you give a good explanation thanks.

You 2 have a good day will check what happens. Myself i am watching eu still 1.2870, 80 with a 35 pip sl for a buy and close all sells also because this summit thing comming up today so probally enough talk to move this pair around allwel then london needs to push it down there now so i can buy in front of the ny session to jack things up. But there is no real movement this morning so far in this pair so hoping for a kneejerk reaction or some comment or rumour or whatever to push price there or i might use your scenario then,
Lets see thanks for your explanation.. Where can i find that vid you talk about
  • #43,318
  • Mar 14, 2013 4:41am Mar 14, 2013 4:41am
We'll find out about the Yen today at 96.60, or a day close above 144 in the case of Gbp/Jpy. One is a previous high and gives a head and shoulders and the other is the fib level after a lower low (hikakke possible). I happen to think they may have a way to go yet but these levels sort out my sentiment for now. USA unemployment figures should sort out the situation. When SPX breaks 1576 it will fly and then drop to retest that level. That's when I renew Yen shorts.

I will put away my crystal ball now and carry on shovelling away at the coal face - ie M5 and M15 charts.
Gone to a better place
  • #43,319
  • Mar 14, 2013 5:07am Mar 14, 2013 5:07am
Quoting smikester
We'll find out about the Yen today at 96.60, or a day close above 144 in the case of Gbp/Jpy. One is a previous high and gives a head and shoulders and the other is the fib level after a lower low (hikakke possible). I happen to think they may have a way to go yet but these levels sort out my sentiment for now. USA unemployment figures should sort out the situation. When SPX breaks 1576 it will fly and then drop to retest that level. That's when I renew Yen shorts.

I will put away my crystal ball now and carry on shovelling away at the coal face...
nice call on your GBP/CHF, smikester....took it long from 1.42 yesterday so in the green..

also green for nzd/gbp......bought dips into 1.81 (gift that keeps giving)

green week for USTs 10s and 30s closed out noon yesterday, ing

long uj, cj gj bought PBs, and long usd/chf on the dip below 0.95

red on some on short copper, down on silver and a bit under on 2 Yr note

overall very green week

still long NG from 3.15 and Sugar from 18cents
  • #43,320
  • Mar 14, 2013 5:29am Mar 14, 2013 5:29am
Quoting roro53
nice call on your GBP/CHF, smikester....took it long from 1.42 yesterday so in the green..

also green for nzd/gbp......bought dips into 1.81 (gift that keeps giving)

green week for USTs 10s and 30s closed out noon yesterday, ing

long uj, cj gj bought PBs, and long usd/chf on the dip below 0.95

red on some on short copper, down on silver and a bit under on 2 Yr note

overall very green week

still long NG from 3.15 and Sugar from 18cents
Good for you Roro. I took the other side of the Gbp/Chf call so I am short Eur/Gbp from .8730. The Chf trade could go a long way so watch out for 1.48 before you move your stops. Once that is retested then you know what to do. Otherwise you may be stopped out tomorrow as I was wrong!
Gone to a better place
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