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Daytrading/scalping with high leverage - my proven strategy

  • Linked: 1 Lot - 1.000 $ | Brokerage Account XXX82
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  • #201
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:16am Mar 13, 2013 11:16am
Woow this thread grew up so much in just a day!

I made some stats on EUR/USD. From Jan 1st 2011, 10 millions first ticks. For each and every tick I checked whether a short and a long would have been a winner or a loser. From these 20 millions trades I could get some meaningful statistics for a pure random entry.

Buying at the ask and selling at the bid, TP=5 pips, SL=100 pips. Net of spread. You either make 5 or lose 100. The TP is slighly higher than DNA's. But this doubles the R:R from 1/40 to 1/20.

The minimum required probability to breakeven is 95.24%. The results are much lower. In average a random entry has a win rate of only 92.5%! During the 5 first months of 2011, an up-trend, the long positions had a win rate of only 93.59% (91.8% for the shorts). So without some edge this strategy doesn't work long term. But by just adding a slight edge, it is certainly possible to have a positive expectancy. So YES the system is important.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #202
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:18am Mar 13, 2013 11:18am
Quoting dnabrasil
and what you think about the 160%?

does it makes sense to you?
doesn't mean much,
I got %700 in a week...

AND

3 days 160% profit in a RANGING MARKET
WOW

you are a trading guru

Quoting PipMeUp
So without some edge this strategy doesn't work long term. But by just adding a slight edge, it is certainly possible to have a positive expectancy. So YES the system is important.
much agreed,
this strategy will fail in so many ways long term
  • #203
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:36am Mar 13, 2013 11:36am
Of course it make sense, it is in the title: "scalping"!, 1.000.000 trades to have 1.000.000usd remember?
That is his take profit, if you do not understand or if you want to make it more profitable or you want to stay 1.000hours it is your call. He is happy with that!
Stop with BS lets focus on something constructive!


Quoting openyoureyes
look again mate, more carefully this time.
why is this trade closed?


potential max profit: 20 minutes / $190
actual profit: 6 min / $52
_

average trade duration : 2 hour

this doesn't make sense


http://www.picamatic.com/show/2013/0...8_1063x389.png
I know where the market is going to move next: to the righ! XD
  • #204
  • Mar 13, 2013 12:22pm Mar 13, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting fugio
Of course it make sense, it is in the title: "scalping"!, 1.000.000 trades to have 1.000.000usd remember?
That is his take profit, if you do not understand or if you want to make it more profitable or you want to stay 1.000hours it is your call. He is happy with that!
Stop with BS lets focus on something constructive!
IMO it is very constructive to prove a system wrong. At least to show the weakness. People have to understand that there will be massive DD and they have to have a system to enter the market, "flip a coin" won't work here.

If you want to play this game you shall understand that you will have very long strings of winners luring people that "it works". With the crazy leverage used you multiply the account in no time. But at some point you will lose more than accumulated.

The MM is especially reckless. If you bet a percentage of your account after 40 trades you double the account. Great. Therefore you now bet twice more. So the next loser will lose TWICE MORE than the 40 previous winners altogether!!

If the expectancy is negative, no MM will help. (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post6379487)
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #205
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:01pm Mar 13, 2013 2:01pm
hello fellow, good luck with your system.
  • #206
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:52pm Mar 13, 2013 2:52pm
Quoting caiobr
hello fellow, good luck with your system.
Luck. That's the word.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #207
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:57pm Mar 13, 2013 2:57pm
My analysis: To show how his strategy works although it would blow up your account one day.

Objective:
Maintain 1 lot for $1000
TP=10 pips, SL=100 pips
1 pips cost $10
Use stop out method with only $1,000 initial capital in trading account.

Outcome
Win 1 trade: $100. Lose 1 trade: $1,000.


For consecutive winning
10 trades : $1,000
100 trades: $10,000
1000 trades: $100,000

In order to work his strategy, the result cannot have many consecutive losing trades, and scalping has many consecutive winning trades. Therefore, based on the above outcome of 100 trades as an example, when he successfully make 100 trades (Bank in $9,000, to maintain the 1 lot for $1,000), then he lose on the next trade 101 (Stop out with $1,000), so he still have $9,000 and use $1,000 to make another trade, then again the subsequent trades are consecutive winning.
So this does work provided if you could survive in the early trades.


Solution/Improvement:
1. Improve the system even it is still bad/blow up of account
2. Find some statistical data to prove at least average losing streak and do some math accordingly.
3. Setup non random entry and exit in order to manipulate the result in according to statistical data proven.

Thanks.

Edit: He has mentioned that "when you reach red traffic light, you need to stop" ,so this is to avoid consecutive losing trade.
  • #208
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:23pm Mar 13, 2013 3:23pm
To get more earning, i have a solution to control game outcome no matter how does the market move. Meaning to say I can manipulate a series of game like this Lose-Win-Win-Win......... So now i would like to share this out.


This is not about how accurate the system. Is all about order formation.
Trade 1: Buylimit order with TP=5 pips.SL=20 pips
Trade 2: Sellstop order with TP=5 pips.SL=20 pips
Trade 3: SellStop order with TP=5 pips.SL=20 pips
Trade 4: same

The Sellstop order with TP must be inside the buylimit order's entry and SL price. So in order to lose buylimit order, you are guarantee to win sellstop order. So the result is Lose-Win-Win-Win.
Trade 1: Lose
Trade 2: Win
Trade 3: Win
Trade 4: Win

What if hit sellstop entry and it does not hit buylimit SL, one of the result might be
Trade 1: Win
Trade 2: Win
Trade 3: Win
Trade 4: Lose

Conclusion: You can manipulate the game, since from my previous analysis, this could be useful. You could make 4 trade into 1 game. So to give certain result. It can be improved.

Thanks.
  • #209
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:51pm Mar 13, 2013 3:51pm
Many (including myself at first) think that this method will eventually blow up the account in the long run. If you had a few rules in your method, I think this method could work.
Example:
1-Trade only in direction of daily, 60M & 15M trend (can use 5EMA & 20EMA to determine trend).
2-$5,000 account (can be any amount just easier to demonstrate with a larger amount)
3-Win=$250 (5 pips), Loss=$5,000 (100 pips)
4-If your 1st 20 trades were wins, you double the account & remove profits ($5,000) & start over. Ideally you would remove profits sooner but I'm just trying to make it easy for this example.

Now many say "What are your chances of getting 20 wins in a row?"
Look at the odds from the opposite angle.
If you had to enter a trade & go against the daily, 60M & 15M trends & use a 6 pip STOP loss with a 100 pip profit target, how many trades do you think you would need to have even one winner? You would have to pick the top/bottom in a trend & hit the top/bottom within 6 pips of the extreme & then have the reversal of trend go at least 100 pips before turning again & stopping you out. I think it would be very hard to do this.
This 6 pip stop with 100 pip target going against the trends is very similar to using a 6 pip target with a 100 pip stop which is approximately what dnabrasil is using with his method.
Just my thoughts.
  • #210
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:02pm Mar 13, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting ~bull.bear~
To get more earning, i have a solution to control game outcome no matter how does the market move. Meaning to say I can manipulate a series of game like this Lose-Win-Win-Win......... So now i would like to share this out.


This is not about how accurate the system. Is all about order formation.
Trade 1: Buylimit order with TP=5 pips.SL=20 pips
Trade 2: Sellstop order with TP=5 pips.SL=20 pips
Trade 3: SellStop order with TP=5 pips.SL=20 pips
Trade 4: same

The Sellstop order with TP must be inside the buylimit order's entry and...
I respect and I hope for your system very well, but I never deal without a good risk reward ratio.
  • #211
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:22pm Mar 13, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting caiobr
I respect and I hope for your system very well, but I never deal without a good risk reward ratio.
Sincerely speaking, i prefer good RR too. Since he has mentioned "open mind" in early post, i think he dare to try/get what does market provide, because of the high risk gives high reward. Myself think that IF somethings could be done or one solution to wipe out the weaken part of the system, it would be nice.

I am here is to understand what does he think of, his mindset. No meaning to hurt anyone.
  • #212
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:27pm Mar 13, 2013 4:27pm
ok,

because of most comment, i've decided to show you
that it is possible, not only in demo account,
and starting with small account isn't a problem:

this is one of my real account, i solely use it to make some test,

today i tryed to gain a lot:

here the result:

http://gyazo.com/08f6d8b0ed58349f19782e0c9286a168.png

http://gyazo.com/a501cd5a8528d82cb879d9b6831dd596.png

this is 114% for today
  • #213
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:38pm Mar 13, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting dnabrasil
ok,

because of most comment, i've decided to show you
that it is possible, not only in demo account,
and starting with small account isn't a problem:

this is one of my real account, i solely use it to make some test,

today i tryed to gain a lot:

here the result:

http://gyazo.com/08f6d8b0ed58349f19782e0c9286a168.png

http://gyazo.com/a501cd5a8528d82cb879d9b6831dd596.png

this is 114% for today
Nice results!

Does this mean, you always aim for 10.8 pips per trade now?

And what timeframe did you use for entry?
  • #214
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:40pm Mar 13, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting dnabrasil
ok,

because of most comment, i've decided to show you
that it is possible, not only in demo account,
and starting with small account isn't a problem:

this is one of my real account, i solely use it to make some test,

today i tryed to gain a lot:

here the result:

http://gyazo.com/08f6d8b0ed58349f19782e0c9286a168.png

http://gyazo.com/a501cd5a8528d82cb879d9b6831dd596.png

this is 114% for today
Dna you are lucky! they wont take my a/c because I am in usa!
  • #215
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:41pm Mar 13, 2013 4:41pm
Quoting srt
1-Trade only in direction of daily, 60M & 15M trend (can use 5EMA & 20EMA to determine trend).
Now many say "What are your chances of getting 20 wins in a row?"
Experimentality I found 93.59% chance of winning when entering randomly (time) WITH the daily trend with and TP=10, SL=100. That makes the probability of winning 20 times in a row be... 26.58% only! Using TP=5 I think things won't be much higher.

Two losses in a row is only 0.41% but that's not 0%!

The idea of withdrawing momey from the account after a nice growth is strange. Why are you hiding money to your system? BTW it is exactly equivalent at reducing the leverage since you bet less in percentage of your total wealth. With a good system you increase the leverage instead... Sounds like there is a catch. The catch is that you don't know when the loss comes. It can be the 21st trade or the very first one.

With a good system why not. But the system must come first.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #216
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:46pm Mar 13, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Does this mean, you always aim for 10.8 pips per trade now?

And what timeframe did you use for entry?
just trying some different tP, i start with 10.8 and see what happen

TF 5M basically
  • #217
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:53pm Mar 13, 2013 4:53pm
Quoting behman8850
Dna you are lucky! they wont take my a/c because I am in usa!
why? they don't accept us?
  • #218
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:57pm Mar 13, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting dnabrasil
why? they don't accept us?
i tried this morning n they say on net that due to some rules they dont accept american a/cs? r u in us? how come u have an a/c? since when?
  • #219
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:59pm Mar 13, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting PipMeUp
The idea of withdrawing momey from the account after a nice growth is strange. Why are you hiding money to your system?
why you think that make and take money is strange?

why should i don't withdraw my money?

if i make 1.000$ a week, i could pay my bills, buy something, gasoline, car, holidays, medicine and so on...

i think there is something wrong here with the trading:

i've a question for all: why are you trading?

i'm doing this for gain money, but i know very well that be rich in little time is very difficult (but not impossible), so i do not want to become rich
i only want to gain money in order to not return to a "normal" work!!
  • #220
  • Mar 13, 2013 5:02pm Mar 13, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting behman8850
i tried this morning n they say on net that due to some rules they dont accept american a/cs? r u in us? how come u have an a/c? since when?
i'm not in us
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