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  • #1,221
  • Edited 5:34am Mar 13, 2013 4:05am | Edited 5:34am
Quoting russss
Ishtana, you certainly have fired up this old thread! Well done!
You are understandably struggling to see the Peak Formations. Remember Steve says they are where the MM is being active so you expect for there to be big volatility. So anywhere where you see a MORE volatility of price there is MM activity and hence is POSSIBLY going to be a Peak Formation. If this is occurring at previous Support or Resistance ( or Supply or Demand, in Sam Seiden's parliance although they are slightly different..), the POSSABILITY this is a Peak Formation is increased....
Fire it up I will, burn it if I have to. We are a bunch intelligent and able people with a very powerful trading method. There is ABSO-F*****N-LUTELY NO reason for us to fail, to back down. So let us set aside our personal agenda and I can already see how we together can reach the peak. Work together as a team, push common goal, and WE WILL GET THERE!

Oh gosh, I'm so fired up after a 60 pips on 3 majors win today Too bad it's on the demo But I'm very happy regardless. Thanks you's all!

All I have to do is to cement the basics you all have generously shared, then never stop learning. And learn from my lesson today, you increase your chance of success exponentially if you work together with people of common goal (Master Mind principle).

Hmm.... Maybe I shouldn't get too fired up. The situation could've easily turned the other way around and I'm down by 60 pips. And I shouldn't get mad. I gotta emulate emotionless robot.
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  • #1,222
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:11am Mar 13, 2013 4:11am
Quoting Ishtana
Fire it up I will, burn it if I have to. We are a bunch intelligent and able people with a very powerful trading method. There is ABSO-F*****N-LUTELY NO reason for us to fail, to back down. So let us set aside our personal agenda and I can already see how we together can reach the peak. Work together as a team, push common goal, and WE WILL GET THERE!

Oh gosh, I'm so fired up after a 60 pips on 3 majors win today Too bad it's on the demo But I'm very happy regardless. Thanks you's all!

All I have to do is to cement the basics you all...
Hey Ishtana. You nailed it! Congratulations!
Don't feel bad it is demo. If you treat your demo account as if it was your live account, you are on your way.

Cheers!
  • #1,223
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:13am Mar 13, 2013 4:13am
I would like to post a trade on euro that I took today, to show how VSA and supply/demand analysis can help on our daily job.
Here is the chart: http://screencast.com/t/Om2ecluqb

It is showing only one principle of VSA but very helpful indeed.

It was the same trade that Ishtana took. I was looking to cable as well, as it had a nice setup but didn't take it. Aussie did the same today.
Well, just had a look on cable and it is bouncing back up. Good I didn't took it! :-)

Have a nice one!
  • #1,224
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:35am Mar 13, 2013 4:35am
Thank you kindly Joao I'm still far from even good. Looking at those trades, I realized now that only 1 was actually a valid trade, the EU trade. Purely because I was trading inline with the peak. With GU and UJ, I was trading against the peak, and as you can see now, price has reversed again. So it was 2 lucky trades, and 1 confirmed trade. Russs wouldn't be too happy with these 2 trades. LOL.

Very interesting VSA analysis. That's my next target once I've mastered MMM.
  • #1,225
  • Mar 13, 2013 5:02am Mar 13, 2013 5:02am
This is what I meant by confusing PFs. To me they look like confirmed PFs. But I was proven wrong twice recently on GU. I'm not picking on the dealers based on just these 2 examples. It happens a lot in the past in various currencies. This is why I need to develop chart vision to spot real PFs accurately.
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  • #1,226
  • Edited 6:30am Mar 13, 2013 5:26am | Edited 6:30am
Ishtana, I could be wrong in this but as I said, a PF is confirmed ONLY by price moving away from it with Vector (momentum) which means it is too late to trade it. Look for the PF not to trade it but to trade the ensuing level 1 or 2. If you do this, the mess that is your chart becomes irrelevant except as a pointer to the level 1.
  • #1,227
  • Mar 13, 2013 6:16am Mar 13, 2013 6:16am
That is a good tip Russ!
I will start to pay attention to it, cause simply looking for what looks like a PF without a hindsight indicator is pretty tough!
That will help.
Thank you.
build a better future. ForexNation dot Org
  • #1,228
  • Mar 13, 2013 6:22am Mar 13, 2013 6:22am
Quoting russss
Ishtana, I could be wrong in this but as I said, a PF is confirmed ONLY by price moving away from it with Vector (momentum) which means it is too late to trade it. Look for the PF not to trade it but to trade the ensuing level 1 or 2. If you do this, the mess that is your chart becomes irrelevant except as a pointer to the level 3.
I see. I had an impression that Steve only trade at level 3. I don't know his teaching is so vague. There is no definite step 1, step 2, and so on.

So generally speaking can we conclude the definition of PF as = high volatility, possibly with price pattern (M&W or H&S) + vector candle away from PF to confirm PF?

Thank you Russss. Learned something valuable today from you.
  • #1,229
  • Mar 13, 2013 6:32am Mar 13, 2013 6:32am
That's how I understand it Ishana. I made a typo on my last post and have corrected it there. PF is a pointer to level 1, not level 3 as I had it.
  • #1,230
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:42am Mar 13, 2013 11:42am
Quoting Ishtana
@FX-Trader: that's my attempt on trying to find the PFs. On live trading...
Russ is right let the peak formation confirm itself..... you need to have a short term bias if you don't you'll be whipsawed to death which is what your charts look like.
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  • #1,231
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:50am Mar 13, 2013 11:50am
Self explantory - comments on picture
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  • #1,232
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:58am Mar 13, 2013 11:58am
Quoting Ishtana
This is what I meant by confusing PFs. To me they look like confirmed PFs. But I was proven wrong twice recently on GU. I'm not picking on the dealers based on just these 2 examples. It happens a lot in the past in various currencies. This is why I need to develop chart vision to spot real PFs accurately.

Again the Peak Formations should only be drawn on the 1hr/4hr, drawing them on the 15m will drive you nuts. Draw them on a 1hr and then change the chart to a 15m to see what it looks like it would encompass most of the junk you drew. Junk you should stay away from.
  • #1,233
  • Mar 13, 2013 1:58pm Mar 13, 2013 1:58pm
Hello friends, what means PF Low and PF High?
  • #1,234
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:10pm Mar 13, 2013 2:10pm
Quoting Trader MT4
Hello friends, what means PF Low and PF High?
PF = Peak Formation
  • #1,235
  • Edited 5:24pm Mar 14, 2013 3:48pm | Edited 5:24pm
Hello FX Trader,
please describe me (maybe with picture), how you identification PF Low or PF High,

what is I-HOD and I-LOD (initial?) That means H and L of Asia session?

(HOD=High of Day, LOD=Low of Day)

regards, Dan
  • #1,236
  • Mar 15, 2013 2:54am Mar 15, 2013 2:54am
Hi.
Here is my reading on this weekly cable structure: http://screencast.com/t/7Zwdvoof0E18
And here is the euro's one: http://screencast.com/t/jYTVtsk9

Of course, it is in hindsight, easy to see things. But I think it is good as homework to keep this picture in mind, as content is always the same but the form varies a lot.
Please, if you have comments, corrections to do or different readings on it, feel free to post.

Also, here is a chart showing how VSA can help and can be a complement to what is being discussed in this thread.
Here is the chart(cable 1hr chart): http://screencast.com/t/Isl4xVnL8

The principle discussed is that buying pressure always appears on down bars, when the price is falling, as we know. But here the volume(activity) shows it very clear.
Also, note that when we see a very high volume down bar, we mark the area between its close and low price. We do that because, if it is really buying activity, then we know that the price will go back and above this level, so the buyers can be in profit.
Here we see clearly how the price, after went back up that area, still there some time testing the area, to see if there is still any sellers present. Also, they take the opportunity to shake every weak holder out.
This principle applies to any financial instrument and in any time frame, as the markets are fractal in nature.
It is really interesting.

Cheers!
  • #1,237
  • Edited 7:50am Mar 15, 2013 7:26am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting Trader MT4
Hello FX Trader,
please describe me (maybe with picture), how you identification PF Low or PF High,

what is I-HOD and I-LOD (initial?) That means H and L of Asia session?

(HOD=High of Day, LOD=Low of Day)

regards, Dan
Lol! Dan, you sound like a troll. The past few charts discussed exactly what the PF low and high are.

Yes you're right in regards on the initial HOD and LOD. Basically what is created by the blue box.

This is the general definition that I've gathered in regards to PFs:

 

  1. Highly visible in 1H chart. Less in 4H chart. Do not use 15M chart to identify PFs.
  2. Involves high volatility to trap both sides. Big range movement.
  3. The formation may involve price pattern (M&W, A&V, H&S, etc)
  4. There may be confirmation in form of vector candles moving away from the PFs.

Ok guys I think we've got the PFs covered, now how do we identify real stop hunt accurately?

Thank you for the chart FX-Trader.

***Noticed something quite strange looking back at SM videos. Most of his charts have their dates at the bottom of the window hidden/cut out from view. Making them seem to be cherry picked and make it harder for us to find the same pattern on our own chart***

  • #1,238
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:23am Mar 15, 2013 8:23am
"real stop hunts"....difficult to see. Likely stop hunts: all to do with the candle patterns: pins, shooting stars, hanging man, dark cloud cover, etc, especially at significant levels: 50 mav, Mayo, LOD, HOD, etc. It is a game of probability and risk management.
  • #1,239
  • Edited Mar 16, 2013 3:06am Mar 15, 2013 9:48am | Edited Mar 16, 2013 3:06am
Yeah, I think this is where "variation of the theme" really comes into play. Based on Russss' answer we can make an initial identification as:

Specific price action (pattern, magnitude, length, and direction) on significant levels. And often the TDI would break outside the band.

I don't think it is time specific. SM says it is most often happens on London and New York opening. But looking even the past days charts, what I thought to be stop hunts happened almost randomly. I don't think you can rely on the shadow boxes for a brinks trade. If it does happen there, great, take it.

Question:

1) Should we strictly only trade the safety trade? Away from PF, and never trade any other time? Should we watch the pattern in the making, never trade during its making, and trade only when obvious PF has been confirmed?

This will no doubt reduce the number of trades significantly. Level 3 PFs might only happen once or twice a week. What do you guys think?

2) Can we have both valid PF High and valid PF Low at the same time, when both are not violated?

3) Must the stop hunt breaks the Asian range for it to be valid?
  • #1,240
  • Mar 19, 2013 11:59pm Mar 19, 2013 11:59pm
Here is my view on euro.

15 min chart: http://screencast.com/t/bx5fpPVccKeX

Daily chart shows the pair is well contained in this down channel: http://screencast.com/t/M4fv4DKBGO

Now for cable.
Cable is in a range, as we can see in this 15min chart: http://screencast.com/t/IIng09tdi
Because today is still Tue, I think this range will be broken. So, look for tests of the possible LOW and HOW and follow price action at that levels to see if the level will hold or break.
But, if we look at the 4hr chart, we can see that we have a pretty good base formed: http://screencast.com/t/nmTnoe3Wu5z
If the price drops, these are the levels to look for possible longs. But while the price keeps above that range, mid to long term view is long in this pair.

Of course, please give your comments, corrections and other views as well.

Cheers!
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