M&W-Trading

Well said FMF. Way better than what I was going to post.

Muito obrigado Joao! You're another genius of SM method like FX-Trader. Thank you so much for the pics and the explanation. You're confirming my understanding and teaching me new things.

Indeed what really matters are simply the accumulation, the stop hunt, and the trend. Not level counting, not daily cycle, not weekly cycle, and other stuff that SM teaches us but rarely appears on the chart.

But it is identifying those 3 things accurately is what matters. What is seen on the chart as consolidation, didn't look like a consolidation during the beginning of it. That's why I often got it wrong. I also often make a mistake of choosing the wrong M&W. There are so many fake M&W and H&S patterns these days that I almost scrap SM method. Market maker methodology works, no doubt. It's about getting it right that we need to focus on.

I think we all together should focus on getting the market methodology right, regardless of who is teaching it. I really believe in the power of the goodwill this forum can create. Guys, let's this forum, particularly this thread be our "Master Mind" group. If you recognize that term than you know what I'm talking about. If you don't know about it, no it isn't the master mind of any mafia or terrorist group. It has nothing to do with it. I'm talking about the Master Mind group per Napoleon Hill's classic "Think & Grow Rich." Wouldn't it be very cool for a bunch of retail traders like us solving the forex puzzle together?

So let's focus our discussion on:

 

1. The theme and variations of the stop hunt.
2. The theme and deceptive variations of consolidation/accumulation.
3. The identification and confirmation of Peak Formations.
4. The indicators that help to understand all the above: like TDI, ADR, Hi Lo, EMA, pivots, etc.
5. The candle pattern/price action pattern theme and variations.
6. Other systems that help to understand all the above: like the volume spread analysis, the supply & demand concept, etc.

I think once you understand completely all the above, you'll trading closely with the market makers. And that's closest thing you can get to the Holy Grail as a retail trader using market maker methodology.

Ishtana, very good, teach us,

dan

Uh... I was thinking for other people to teach us. Why would you want a losing trader like me teaching you Dan? I've just got a real whack in the butt following SM last week.

But here's what I know to be true, and noticeable on relatively current charts:

 

1. M&W and H&S pattern are becoming less frequent and deceptive, and replaced by mini M&Ws and M&Ws with multiple legs (sometimes up to 4) and the legs often briefly violate the previous legs, indicating a very aggressive multiple stop hunts. They don't want anyone to go along with them as they make the trend.
2. Levels, peak formations, TDI signals are becoming unidentifiable and deceptive. This has been the topic of recent debate in this forum. Levels are subjective and unclear, the number 3 does not really represent anything. Shark fin with blood on the water is not reliable at all. But I remember Steve said that patterns are above ALL indicators. So yeah, maybe we should focus on the current and past pattern (trap volume) and forget level counting, peak formations, and TDI signals.
3. I do find 50 EMA, 200 EMA, and 800 EMA often to be quite a reliable dynamic S&R levels. So you want to keep an eye on it. In terms of static S&R, I find daily open and daily pivot to be somehow reliable too.

I had a feeling that the market makers may switch their strategy for this year.

Questions:

 

1. Anyone uses 1M chart like Jim does for entry and exit?
2. Can someone comment on government intervention in light of market maker methodology? Would they still able to do their cycle? Do market makers collude with the governments (as far as I know they do. The Feds got a cut from Wall Street)? Or are they separated that even market makers don't know what the governments will do next?

Muchas gracias.

Here's an interview with one of the 3 Myfxbook traders,

Tough trading day yesterday was =( Too many fake, illegit s****. Steve, why don't you come in to this forum and enlighten some of us here. / "I told you a thousandth time and I'm gonna tell you again, you only take crystal clear, pristine setups. How many times should I tell you that? You have to do your homework and send me emails." / Well, they all look like pristine setups to me Steve. And I did send you emails but I never got a reply =(

I saw the huge GU spike and expected a retrace from there. My S/L was 5 below the LOD, the entry, and TP are clear to see.

Ishtana, I am sorry but it doesn't look like you have done the course. How many times have you watched the videos? How much backtesting have you done? i agree, the method is very difficult to master (I have given it up as I don't have the patience). You NEVER trade back into the peak formation! and there is little doubt that is a peak formation low since it is at a previous low (they are not a "line" but a "zone"). There is a distinct "W". Why look to short? Watch the Sam Seiden videos on Supply and Demand. Watch the Steve Mauro videos on Peak Formations.
Once the Peak Formation Low is formed you are only looking to buy! You do not need a "W" or "M" in this situation....Steve says this many times in the videos. All you need is a bullish candle pattern as you are trading WITH the MM once the PF is formed.
How close were your Stop Losses? These entries formed without a strong move (Vector?) out o the PFL so put your SL UNDER the PFL (25 pips will do it....that is still a 2:1 win:loss).
I studied and test traded SM for 1.5 years and watched the videos, some up to 6 times, and backtested stacks.......then tossed it in. This is not a hobbie. If I were Steve, I wouldn't waste my time with people who don't do the work either. Get serious or lose a lot of $.
I have been trying to trade Fx for over 10 years and am only just getting it. I know and share your pain! I have been admonished by many for the same mistakes of lack of commitment.
I do believe the method works, but requires a LOT of patience and study and for many, other indicators/strategies etc.
Sorry if this seems negative, but there are a lot of good aspects to the SM course, and good trades do come.

Ish - You really need to get back to basics. I would suggest hitting the attachements tab at the top and bottom and down loading the indicators for this method. For starters it would be much easier for you to follow the method. Next you need to mark you charts consistently with the right info. You are looking at every M&W which is wrong, you're looking at every direction which is wrong. Your confused b/c you're trying to much at once.

I have done a basic mark-up of today's AM London session, it played out to the T. Try to just mark your charts exactly the same. I am not in front of my MT4 to use the template so I did this on TOS with manually putting the template items on. You should know this stuff that well that even without the template in MT4 you can mark it up to look the same.

I think one of the main reason's people fail at trading in general is their unwillingness to follow directions. What I would like to see from you is change, change your mindset to follow directions, first by using the templates or at least marking the right components on the template. That is your first basic lesson. I only started turning the corner to break-even in trading once I finally did that myself and checked my ego and thoughts at the door. Don't think just do, look at the charts and be mechanical, if this then that.

Get in the habit of analyzing charts in the same fashion every day, 4hr, 1hr, 15m in that order, even if you see nothing just program looking at a chart in 4hr, 1hr, 15m. Do that over and over. Remeber for any method to work you must break it down to it's simplest form and undstand the mechanics.

Russs and FX-Trader, you have my sincere thanks.

I do remember clearly when SM says never trade against the PF, BUT his rule includes an additional disclaimer: "out of level 1 consolidation."

How would I identify a PF if level counting is not even valid? The thing is I've seen in the past what I thought to be a PF but was easily violated by the dealers. So that's why I'm confused.

Again, it comes back to identifying real PF, accurately. Something that I still cannot do and need some serious help with. A mere M&W or H&S does not make a PF, so what qualifies a real PF?

I'm ready to be corrected. I've put my ego aside a long long time ago. The market doesn't give a rat ass about what I think about it, at all. That's why I just follow their flow.

Both of you are right, I need to go to the basics again and I will.

Russ, my stop loss is at 15 from my entry on default, but if that is still within the previous high and low, I extend it further to be just outside the previous high/low. And I am fully committed to getting this right. I'd rather die than quit and regret.

Ok, let's have a look at EUR/USD for the past 4 days. How would you identify the PFs?

Switch to the 1 hr and have last week and this week so far in view, pick the highest point and the lowest point and repost the chart nothing else.

Hi Ishtana. I think the issue here is that we are trying to over complicate things.
As other guy said above, try to focus on what really matters and it is that the price movements are a function of liquidity.
The market is always in search for liquidity. When the price finds liquidity, than it enters in a consolidation phase, what looks like a box. But what is really going on there, is that buyers and sellers found a price where they mutually agreed to make business on.
And, when there is no agreement, the price will move to find the other party on a price where they will agree, again, to make business on.

With that in mind, the charts are really a picture showing areas of agreement in the past. It also gives us hints on where the price is likely to move in the search for liquidity(basically, where stops are sitting. But not only that).
The good thing is that when we identify these areas, we are identifying price levels where, with high probability, price will react if and when it goes there again(depending on the anatomy of the price).
So, to be specific, if price goes back to a demand level, it is a good level to buy and, if the price goes back to a supply level, it is a good opportunity to sell, BASICALLY speaking.

I think you have to go back to these basics concepts and try to figure out it in your charts.

Sorry if it is confusing! I put a brief chart for your initial reference: http://screencast.com/t/VAzUFfKpnuQ
It is the gbpusd, 1hr chart as for today.

Go back in history, in other pairs and time frames and practice. Try to find these areas, where they formed and look how price reacted when it reached this area again.

As someone said before, it is very good to read Sam Seiden's post. You can get it from the "online trading academy" site and also from forex street site(http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f).

Simplify your analysis going back to the basics.

By the way, I don't know if you have a daily or weekly goal for profits but, think about what 10 pips or 20 pips per day can do for you.
Sometimes we think that we have to catch a home run everyday and it is not true. Just have a thought about it.

Don't be discouraged! Keep going, because you will get what you want.
Cheers!

@ FX-Trader: I still don't know the formal definition of a PF, so I simply couldn't identify them accurately. It is quite subjective and it must be something more than just the pattern (M&W H&W, half a batman, Evening/Morning Star). But I've attached the 1H for the 3 majors over the past 2 weeks.

@Joao: I haven't delved into Sam Seiden's S&D method. I don't have access to his training videos. But I will try to study his teaching and I will get to the basic per your suggestion.

Thank you both of you.

If you want Steve to answer your questions, you will have to join the DMR.

This is all I wanted you to do, Pick the highest point and lowest point on the visible timeframe over 10days - nothing more. No M no W's just the highest point and lowest point. Do you see that on the chart?

Remeber the goal is to build the house brick by brick one section at a time. Now do this SAME excercise on E/U and G/U identify the top and the bottoom of the last 10days there can only be 2 points on your chart nothing else. Repost to ensure you have that piece down. Then we'll do it again a few times and move on to step 2. You have to do it 3x for it to start sinking in, say it three times read it 3 times. Do it 3x, 3 times, three times.

Got it?

Well-meaning folks will give you a lot of suggestions, and point you to Sam Seiden's Supply/Demand lessons, Martin Cole's market maker method, Craig Harris' Natural Flow method, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), Gartley patterns, Elliot Waves, Fibonacci retracement/expansion/extension/projection, etc etc etc. The question is whether you should FOCUS your time to master one single Method (which means consistent practice and routine), or to go about researching other systems in the hope of finding a solution to your current problems. Every time you follow the trail of a new suggestion, you basically reset your progress to zero.

The funny thing is, the people from these other systems are also searching elsewhere for solution to their own problems. That's why we don't see any FF TradeExplorer or Myfxbook results, only pages and pages of threads with people giving people advise. Why did 1,147 students signed up with Steve Mauro paying US$5,150 each? Because whatever systems they previously followed didn't work. And now you are getting advise to look into these systems.

I have seen and used Sam's stuff, I tried trading with it and lost for several years and found many faults with it, the local office never offered me any help other than wanted to sell me a different asset class. What did finally work is my own research into the mechanics. That stopped the bleeding and the whipsaw. If you cannot see things yourself then taking someone's word blind isn't going to help you either. I'll say it again many people fail because they refuse to do the hard work of learning. To build a strong empire you need to build a solid foundation. I can sum Sam's supply and demand strategy up in short. When I reviewed my trade logs I found that on the 3rd or 4th trade I was right, so I stopped looking at his 1st and 2nd levels, the 3rd and 4th levels out were at more extreme's or TRAP points.

MMaker is right don't jump from one method to the next, and certainly don't try to confuse things by piling on everyone elses info. Break things down to what you see and slowly build it back you will see a difference. Stick to one method and demo is for at least 40 real DEMO trades. And I'm not taking gun slinging trades be selective you should be trading no more than 4 or 5 of these setups a week, you might get only 2 in one pair if you are very selective. But if you get even 2 solid trades a week you're doing better then most.

Look at each piece of what's on the chart by itself and master it before moving on....
(Macro) Week 1 - High/Low - can you spot the High and low on any chart it's 2 spots no more?
(Macro) Week 2 - Asian range - can you create a box each day on the 15m chart that spans the Asian Range?
(Macro) Week 3 - Prev High or Low of the day - can you identify the prev H/L markers?
(Micro) Week 4 - Candles can you identify candle structures and patterns at key points on the chart?

As you look at this system or any system from a Macro level to a micro level you will better understand what you are looking at. and slowly you start marking up you charts better and get better at anticipating the moves. If you a wrong your TIGHT risk mgmt will save you, but since your in demo your pocketbook is safe.

If you look at a chart with a blank stair then you need to step back and clear your head and re focus. The goal here is not the method but the method at which you teach yourself to learn. No matter the method you need solid defined methods to absorbing the info otherwise you are a gun slinger and will do as well as the monkey's who throw darts at the paper.

To sum up the long winded message - sit down and develop your training roadmap and then execute on that roadmap. grading yourself and your knowledge along the way, if you fail or get low marks at any point, stop and re-review until you are proficient, then move on.

hey guys,,just joined this thread-seen the referances to steve mauro and am presently studing his way of trading --i am not a newbie i have been trading prob longer than some on this thread have been alive(not all forex) --doesnt make me good or bad --just the facts--is anyone on here from sw florida area?-really ready to kick my trading up bout 100 notches--forex requires A LOT of patientce=== i have little --cant even spell it right!!!lol--(not shure)--i have made a lot of $$$$$ trading ,,,,,,,,and lost a lot of$$$$$$ trading --ready to loose the 2nd part-steves stuff is good but it is not that simple--after the fact is easy--shit, anyone can see a half a batman after the fact--or a peak high or low---any way --am looking for a few who would like to study this method with me----good trading to all!!

@FX-Trader: that's my attempt on trying to find the PFs. On live trading, the result would be different because what I thought or seem to be a PF is often reviolated and I was proven wrong by the market by a couple of hundred bucks.

@Mmaker: I'm sticking with market maker methodology so I would listen to anyone teaching the concept. Steve and Martin are clear advocates. Sam, Craig, and VSA indirectly also support this concept. Gartley, Elliot, and Fibo maybe irrelevant with what the dealers are doing, but I haven't done enough research to filter them out.

I don't intend to keep jumping from one system to another. I'm focusing on this MMM and I will get it. The first step is always the hardest, the second can be even harder. But I'm willing to pay the price no matter how hard it is. I'm just not the smartest tool in the shed I admit. So it's gonna take a while.

Ishtana, you certainly have fired up this old thread! Well done!
You are understandably struggling to see the Peak Formations. Remember Steve says they are where the MM is being active so you expect for there to be big volatility. So anywhere where you see a MORE volatility of price there is MM activity and hence is POSSIBLY going to be a Peak Formation. If this is occurring at previous Support or Resistance ( or Supply or Demand, in Sam Seiden's parliance although they are slightly different..), the POSSABILITY this is a Peak Formation is increased. Perhaps it is occurring at yesterdays Low of the Day, etc. or at the Mayo, etc. There must always be other confuence. Even then there is no guarantee until the PF is "proven" by price vectoring out of the MM activity. That is why is is so difficult to trade the PF.....it is not a PF until it is too late. That is why Steve says just trade the safe trade out of Level 1. In this case the Safe Trade is the long out of level 1 away from the PFL where price touched the 50ema (which, btw, is above the 100ema just here too)
The attachment is prob going to mess up my cred. but there it is anyway to show what i am trying to say. Not my fault if it fails...I have given up on SM.
Once again Ishtana, good for you!