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The Really Useless Thread

  • #131,441
  • Mar 11, 2013 5:05am Mar 11, 2013 5:05am
Quoting FibbinArchie
so true:

Trading is NOT Real Life

[color=#000000] In our Anglo-Saxon, Cartesian driven advanced industrialized world, facts rule. Whether you are a Google engineer, a designer for Apple or just a regular joe schmoe -- your life is governed by the physical reality of the world around you. As Nate Silver proved with his 2012 election call knowledge of facts is what separates winners from losers in modern society. (Are you listening...


well said!
these are the reasons why, I've drastically reduced my trading business . For months now I think that the big financial powers want to exclude small traders like us. To realize this, just look at the charts in recent months.
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #131,442
  • Mar 11, 2013 5:36am Mar 11, 2013 5:36am
Quoting FibbinArchie


Not so in trading. In trading facts don't matter at all...

In financial markets we don't trade facts, we trade feelings....

Remember in the financial market you can be 100% intellectually correct and still lose all of your money. That's because in trading you only make money when the market -- not the facts -- agree with you.
Kind of strongly disagree with you mate and with the prev poster.

1. Yes facts matter. Actually the only thing that matter. There is no value (in any financial instrument) without facts behind. Investors, traders, speculators can differ in the valuation of the underlying (they usually do otherwise charts will be at price equilibrium with flat charts) but facts via supply and demand (not your perceived value) are the ones the determine price value.

2. What you call "feelings" is what is call in economics/finance expectations. It has, it is and it always be the same. Investors, traders, speculators we TRADE expectations (either that the underlying is too high, too low or is in relatively equilibrium).

What would be the point for an investor to buy the actual value of an asset? ..you want the asset to go up or down (in general ...not talking options here) meaning you buy a stock because you think is undervalue or you have the expectation that will increase in value in the future, etc or a closer example DJIa goes to all time highs not because of the US economy is booming and unemployment is low and everything is perfect, but BECAUSE the potential expectations in the mid term that UUS economy will recover adn start posting strong numbers, etc, etc.....

You don't wait for the underlying to match the facts and the exact real current value (that when you actually look for an EXIT !!!). You buy/sell expectations based on your perceived potential value of an asset that is given by what you call FACTS.... We can be wrong in our valuation or analysis, or we can not even understand them in some cases, but markets DONT move via supra-natural force that ignore the fundamentals/facts behind an instrument ...it's simply not true.

3. Agree that your analysis can be 100% right and still lose all of your money. However, if you are right in you are analysis and you lose money is only because the technicalities of your trading plan are poor (entries, exits, r:r, money management, poor selection of instruments etc ,etc) not because "facts" don't match market... Market is the sum all facts ...and that's fact .....

In any case, no break shakes across the board for this week ....so nothing to do or see until then.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #131,443
  • Mar 11, 2013 7:47am Mar 11, 2013 7:47am
Every time you see 13000 EU buy or sell ...even better buy and sell with TP 3 pips

After the EU oscilated 33 times above/below 13000 level you will have 100 pips riskfree

Note: remember to set TP to 4 pips for the last trade
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #131,444
  • Mar 11, 2013 7:52am Mar 11, 2013 7:52am
Quoting Gleneagles
Every time you see 13000 EU buy or sell ...even better buy and sell with TP 3 pips

After the EU oscilated 33 times above/below 13000 level you will have 100 pips riskfree

Note: remember to set TP to 4 pips for the last trade

you know, that just might work
  • #131,445
  • Mar 11, 2013 7:55am Mar 11, 2013 7:55am
Quoting AllyB
you know, that just might work
or open a beer everytime it hits 3000..very soon you won`t care a damn about the lousy PA
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #131,446
  • Mar 11, 2013 8:04am Mar 11, 2013 8:04am
Quoting Gleneagles
or open a beer everytime it hits 3000..very soon you won`t care a damn about the lousy PA
a bit early here for that system but i will keep it in mind

the only thing i am going to get out of this PA is dizzy
  • #131,447
  • Mar 11, 2013 6:30pm Mar 11, 2013 6:30pm
Lots of euro bulls recently. Let's see if yen continues to weaken

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/7296/311a.png
  • #131,448
  • Mar 11, 2013 6:36pm Mar 11, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting Rolland
Lots of euro bulls recently. Let's see if yen continues to weaken
Stops above 126 are toast
  • #131,449
  • Mar 11, 2013 7:45pm Mar 11, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting Rolland
Stops above 126 are toast
Gottem!
  • #131,450
  • Mar 11, 2013 8:43pm Mar 11, 2013 8:43pm
Inserted Video
  • #131,451
  • Mar 12, 2013 2:49am Mar 12, 2013 2:49am
Quoting sisse
Kind of strongly disagree with you mate and with the prev poster.

1. Yes facts matter. Actually the only thing that matter. There is no value (in any financial instrument) without facts behind. Investors, traders, speculators can differ in the valuation of the underlying (they usually do otherwise charts will be at price equilibrium with flat charts) but facts via supply and demand (not your perceived value) are the ones the determine price value.

2. What you call "feelings" is what is call in economics/finance expectations....
Was always going to be courting controversy with that post Sisse... Not my words, they were quoted from Boris Schlossberg, but from my experience as a very short time-frame intraday trader they rang true to me... Intraday, I try to gauge order flow, large hedge fund managers, banks, etc. gunning for stops, etc. etc. trapping traders on the wrong side of order flow with head fakes and the like, etc... On the bigger picture and more long-term time-frames then I would be more inclined to agree with your good self... But we have already had this conversation regarding order flow trading...
  • #131,452
  • Mar 12, 2013 3:33am Mar 12, 2013 3:33am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Was always going to be courting controversy .... ....Intraday, I try to gauge order flow, large hedge fund managers, banks, etc. gunning for stops, etc. etc. .....conversation regarding order flow trading...
je je je ... I knew it ...

Quote
I try to gauge order flow, large hedge fund managers, banks, etc. gunning for stops, etc. etc. .....conversation regarding order flow trading...

Wishful thinkinhg ... .as if all the big bastards in the FX world work in perfect synch, at the same time and always make money...have you check the last Q results of the major bastards in FX ... no much better than the the average poster in the RUT... (exaggerating but you will be surprise....) ...

ĪMO, real "order flow"is way larger and in higher Tfs than a few desk dealers/brokers running micro retail stops during London opening range...I have no doubt you can make a buck playing with that if you manage to read how small retail works (not that difficult to read small retail most of the time) but from them to think that markets move because of micro stops running .... I dont think so... Is misleading and not true guarantee that a large fund manager/Bank/CB/international trading company/ hedge fund/ Macro fund / Option player and Portfolio manager is running a micro pipet in M5 from Oanda stops before taking a FX position ....

I understand and agree to some extend on what you mean with intraday, as you know I just don't like the oversimplification of the so call intraday "order flow experts" in FX...

Equities (ES, DAX) they keep ticking the highs just less than inches from all time highs. The whole world (including mainstream media now) waiting for a trigger to make bulls trip on the highs meaning we may now get a even larger overshoot higher of all time highs in ES before a retrace ... way too many people trying to fade the highs and nobody willing to be the first one to raise the bid ...as long as the VIX keeps ticking down and dollar holds the current levels ...let the manic move continue until it exhaust itself ....

In any case, still no break, no shakes across the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #131,453
  • Edited 4:30am Mar 12, 2013 4:03am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting sisse
...let the manic move continue until it exhaust itself ....

In any case, still no break, no shakes across the board.

sisse
lol, gotta agree with you there... 24 hrs on and exactly where we were yesterday morning, to the pip...

point of interest- last night's short covering traded exactly to the upper mofu of the post nfp sell off range... faded the move for a few, closed out on the penetration below 3000...

And i actually took some cash out of my account and paid myself this week!!! First time in ages... (mr market still owes me a small fortune mind)... Lol, one of these days I will become a net profitable trader, by hook or by crook... 4 years of trying to learn this bastard market has left me with a little catching up to do...

edit- serious point about your post... unwise to totally disregard retail IMO, what percentage does it make up of total FX trade volume? (Not sure, but somehow I recall 20%, could be wrong mind), also larger players who manage speculative flows are experiencing the same emotions as retailers, probably a lot more so, as they are making or losing a lot more cash tick by tick...
  • #131,454
  • Mar 12, 2013 5:34am Mar 12, 2013 5:34am
Quoting Driver55


well said!
these are the reasons why, I've drastically reduced my trading business . For months now I think that the big financial powers want to exclude small traders like us. To realize this, just look at the charts in recent months.
thanks D, but not sure that they want to exclude small traders... the market needs a constant supply of losing traders... Zero sum game and all that...

Anyway, fibre getting choppy and momentum seems to have come right off the cable move, so calling it a day, a profitable one, now just need to maintain and try to build on this consistency that I've been experiencing lately...

catch you all later, have a good trade...
  • #131,455
  • Mar 12, 2013 12:15pm Mar 12, 2013 12:15pm
ES losing foot intraday for the first time in weeks, opening a further rally in dollar.

Euro cannot find a grip to break up the chop zone but TA wise very strong 1.293x S (yearly/Q and M) is completely naked intraday now with a tick below lows with extension to also very solid S 1.288x.(W/D). Break below those 2 very strong supports obviously will cause collateral damage in the mid term uptrend.... Tracking closely to see if we get a quick in and out trigger...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #131,456
  • Mar 12, 2013 1:14pm Mar 12, 2013 1:14pm
still waiting

Quoting pipper
waiting for the plunge on the 8hr
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.PNG Size: 31 KB
Attached Image
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #131,457
  • Mar 12, 2013 1:23pm Mar 12, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting pipper
still waiting
I don't know why I keep wasting my time with the euro trash haha. Aussie is actually playing nicely. Euro just keeps getting smacked down every time it tries to make an attempt northward. Was just trying to play a retrace but this is getting to be snooze city.
  • #131,458
  • Mar 12, 2013 1:27pm Mar 12, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
still scalping,,, sediment wise, i am against most until we pullback. apple screwed me last year after 493, it continued north before norm.. i kinda think, apple was rare. anyway right or wrong this is posted before any signs of any pullback according to momentum... pa wise w/o indies. i have us overbought using 2009 pa. that dont mean it will drop tomorrow or in the next month.. or ever.... still scalping myself.. eu is still in the chop..

the chart is the dow... s/p is in the same boat..
7 in a row is a hard one to top w/o a pullback also.. yen pairs usually follow. just a reason to be cautious. and another reason the eu will probably see 2909... and the old norm at 2894
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: red plane.PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: yen.PNG Size: 44 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #131,459
  • Mar 12, 2013 2:18pm Mar 12, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
7 in a row is a hard one to top w/o a pullback also.. yen pairs usually follow. just a reason to be cautious. and another reason the eu will probably see 2909... and the old norm at 2894
Looks like a done deal with the roll... let see how it pans out.

@pipper, excellent timing and nice call mate....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #131,460
  • Mar 12, 2013 5:26pm Mar 12, 2013 5:26pm
cheers mate. could be a quick dip. keeping an eye on sterling 485x level (S2 Year)

Quoting sisse
Looks like a done deal with the roll... let see how it pans out.

@pipper, excellent timing and nice call mate....

sisse
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
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