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The 95% of losers, it's true?

  • #121
  • Mar 11, 2013 7:35am Mar 11, 2013 7:35am
I think that most newbie traders end up making money initially, but eventually lose their money by over trading. The most important thing in trading is discipline and money management, more than a good trading strategy.
  • #122
  • Mar 11, 2013 9:52am Mar 11, 2013 9:52am
Quoting tony_montana
I think that most newbie traders end up making money initially, but eventually lose their money by over trading. The most important thing in trading is discipline and money management, more than a good trading strategy.
A question for you:
An EA can be coded to adhere to strict money management rules, and (being a robot) it will trade with perfect discipline.
So, if strategy is unimportant, why isn't EVERY EA profitable?
  • #123
  • Mar 11, 2013 1:54pm Mar 11, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting kidlucky
Simple. An EA does not have emotions, it cant decide if today is a good day to trade, it doesn't know about current economic situations, it just does what it is told to do. Besides if there was a profitable EA taht works under every situation, we would never know about this.
Deciding if today is a good day to trade, weighing up economic situations, etc are strategic considerations. The previous post said that strategy was unimportant; all that mattered was MM and discipline.

My point is this: strategy is extremely important. Simply making random entries and exits, regardless of how disciplined the trader is in making them, will lead to inevitable loss.
  • #124
  • Mar 12, 2013 2:14am Mar 12, 2013 2:14am
Quoting valdor
A lot of people are losers in the Forex business and not because trading is particularly hard but because they have no discipline and very little capital to invest.
Correct
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #125
  • Mar 12, 2013 3:26am Mar 12, 2013 3:26am
Quoting Chi
Correct
No its not...

I am suprised that this bullshit is being spread over and over again.

1. to less capital

Trading with micro..nanolots or Oanda (no lots at all) there is no reason to say this.
the absolute trading size has NO influence on losing or not.

1% is 1%. Doesnt matter if 1% of $10M or 1% of $100. Period.


2. lack of discipline

Discipline is a basic requirement for success. But itself provides no edge. A roulette player is betting 1% of his bankroll on red. He always stick to his strategy no matter what. Plus he stick to his Moneymanagment and always risk 1%. He is very disciplined. But he will get broke sooner or later, just because his system has no edge.

The same applies for trading. If your strategy has no edge you will loose. Discipline will only let you stay in the game longer.


There are some very good posts about common Forex myths by hanover. Definitely a good read, just search for it.

One of the myth is "Moneymanagment itself provides no edge" and this is so true.
  • #126
  • Mar 22, 2013 11:04pm Mar 22, 2013 11:04pm
This percentage is equally bad in most other professions, so don't get alarmed....How many people succeed in sports?, Business?, Hollywood?...

Just like in everything else, the top 5% make the big bucks !
  • #127
  • Mar 23, 2013 5:03pm Mar 23, 2013 5:03pm
[quote=forexoz;6540311]This percentage is equally bad in most other professions, so don't get alarmed....How many people succeed in sports?, Business?, Hollywood?...

Just like in everything else, the top 5% make the big bucks ![/

Perhaps to help you understand, let's consider a real profession
I will find you 100 doctors in the phone book and not a single trader.
To compare trading with a real profession is a huge misconception and probably a delusion.
  • #128
  • Mar 23, 2013 11:11pm Mar 23, 2013 11:11pm
Quoting forexoz
This percentage is equally bad in most other professions, so don't get alarmed....How many people succeed in sports?, Business?, Hollywood?...

Just like in everything else, the top 5% make the big bucks !
I can assure, its not like this with all professions. That's not true.

And actually, we are talking about doing a living off forex, not about becoming millionaires. Let's be more realistic.

Who here did a living off forex, during the last 5 years? (yeah someone will say that doing a living is different for each person).

Ok, then, who did at least 30K per year, during the last 5 years, exclusivelly trading RETAIL FOREX?

I remember not long ago, I think it was a blog or another forum, someone offering 50K to the first person that could prove him that they could trade RETAIL FOREX and make a living for 1 year. He said that only a few took the offer, and all of them failed.

The problem is that not so much people start asking questions when they something that doesn't fit or something "strange", and when someone starts asking questions, a group of people try to discredit him. I have seen this over and over and over again.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #129
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:21am Mar 24, 2013 9:21am
Quoting hanover
A question for you:
An EA can be coded to adhere to strict money management rules, and (being a robot) it will trade with perfect discipline.
So, if strategy is unimportant, why isn't EVERY EA profitable?
EA's can not see the big picture, the trend or the trend reversal and they do not know when to stay out of the market, therefore they get burned also...
Only a Human or Alien can see the changing tides and trades need to be adjusted accordingly.........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #130
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:25am Mar 24, 2013 9:25am
Trading for a living is possible .............last weeks results............on 2 different accounts..........slow is steady and fast is fragile........
So get working on a system you understand...................!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Other Alien report.JPG Size: 492 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #131
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:35pm Mar 24, 2013 9:35pm
Quoting forexalien
Trading for a living is possible .............last weeks results............on 2 different accounts..........slow is steady and fast is fragile........
So get working on a system you understand...................!

Excellent, but the big question is, can you do this for a quarter? And then for a year? and then for 3 years?

If the answer is yes, then you are part of the very small percentage that profit in Retail Forex.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #132
  • Mar 24, 2013 11:19pm Mar 24, 2013 11:19pm
Quoting forexalien
EA's can not see the big picture, the trend or the trend reversal and they do not know when to stay out of the market, therefore they get burned also...
Only a Human or Alien can see the changing tides and trades need to be adjusted accordingly.........
Yes, exactly.

"Big picture" "trend" "changing tides" etc are strategic considerations, and the guy I was replying to said that discipline and MM were more important than strategy. EAs conquer MM and discipline by default, but those that fail do so because they're neither strategically intelligent nor adaptable enough. Therefore strategy IS important. That was the point implied in my question.

Anyway, 32 trades without a loss is a good start. Well done.
  • #133
  • Mar 25, 2013 3:06pm Mar 25, 2013 3:06pm
in long term profitable is under 1 %
sad but true
  • #134
  • Mar 26, 2013 4:08am Mar 26, 2013 4:08am
I think that in every business or sphere of our life when we do something at the 1st time, sure we do it like as blind kittens... And only time can change smth in good way
  • #135
  • Mar 27, 2013 12:32am Mar 27, 2013 12:32am
95% of traders lose their account in the first year, but I believe after that, in the next couple of year 99% of traders lose their account. Only a tiny fraction will become consistent profitable traders in the long run. Most of the traders lose forever.
  • #136
  • Mar 30, 2013 7:21am Mar 30, 2013 7:21am
Actually there is no exact number or percentage of the traders who are facing lose but they are in much excess than the winners. The winners are mostly the big traders.
  • #137
  • Apr 6, 2013 9:29pm Apr 6, 2013 9:29pm
5% survive seems litttle low. I would think more like 10%
  • #138
  • Apr 7, 2013 10:24am Apr 7, 2013 10:24am
Quoting Mike WFX
Actually there is no exact number or percentage of the traders who are facing lose but they are in much excess than the winners. The winners are mostly the big traders.
studies have been done. in the stock market only 0.27% of daytraders survive in the long run and they average 5% a year. no idea about swing/position traders but I suppose they do better. old saying: money is like soap - the more you handle it, the faster it evades.
  • #139
  • Apr 7, 2013 7:49pm Apr 7, 2013 7:49pm
The 95% number is not accurate.

Actually, for RETAIL FOREX, 99.6% of people lose money long term (at least 6 months)... The study was posted some days ago, and it was made by a PhD, based in actual information of live accounts in RETAIL FOREX BROKERS.

The 95% number could be true if you only take a period of 1 month.

And if you take a period of 1 year, it could be even worse.

In the actual FOREX MARKET and ECN, the numbers are quite different, but in RETAIL FOREX the numbers of people losing money are almost exactly the same as VEGAS CASINOS, hence why you see so much propaganda of RETAIL FOREX BROKERS all over the internet, but you don't see any PROPAGANDA at all about ECN. A serious business doesn't need to desperately search for clients. The clients go to them.

Everytime I post this message, nobody refutes me, because they know it's true and they can't said a thing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RETAIL-FOREX-CASINO.jpg Size: 92 KB
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #140
  • Apr 7, 2013 11:04pm Apr 7, 2013 11:04pm
Quoting andrei-irk
I'm newbie of course. I knew FX and forexfactory only 4 months ago. I read many of articles here and i have two very simple questions. Everywhere, we see this and make it as an alert: 95% traders go with the win each year, only 5% survive. These words appearred in 70-80 decades, now all the world we have indicators, patterns, autochartist, so this ratio is true untill now? if it's right, from where we have such many people participate in FX everyday ? The second question is that do you know what legends of the FX today? ( and the sum moneys...

if you trade by FF standards yes , you will have serious losses


unless your good with photoshop
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