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All Majors and Gold

  • #3,121
  • Edited Mar 10, 2013 3:01am Mar 9, 2013 11:07pm | Edited Mar 10, 2013 3:01am
While chasing 4-5 dolar moves , do not forget that 1,4xx's are yet to come .. QE could not last forever, and will soon be slowed .. Look at the bond prices across Europe .. They are slowly turning to normal levels. China exports are rising .. Gold was so highly valued because, we all were believing that financial system would collapse. It did not.

Even 14xx's are high compared to inflation, occured in last 10 years. I value gold around 1000-1200 dollars/ounce. That price needs time but 14xx's can very fast be seen. Be veeeery careful.

It has no sense to look at charts for the moment. Huge consalidation is to come, and it does not obey support levels or things like Bollinger, Fibonacci ... not even Spinachi ...

IMHO
  • #3,122
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:20am Mar 10, 2013 5:20am
Quoting serdarsil
While chasing 4-5 dolar moves , do not forget that 1,4xx's are yet to come .. QE could not last forever, and will soon be slowed .. Look at the bond prices across Europe .. They are slowly turning to normal levels. China exports are rising .. Gold was so highly valued because, we all were believing that financial system would collapse. It did not.

Even 14xx's are high compared to inflation, occured in last 10 years. I value gold around 1000-1200 dollars/ounce. That price needs time but 14xx's can very fast be seen. Be veeeery careful.

It has...

welcome and thanks for the post......
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,123
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:21am Mar 10, 2013 5:21am
something to read and very good explanation of what happened friday


What everyone must know about the US Dollar: Sea change coming?


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362879168

From thesensibleguidetoforex.com

http://www.forexfactory.com/resource...tory-quote.png

How, Why, and Other Details: It may be changing, but not because it moved up with stocks after the US jobs reports As we reviewed last week’s market action and its lessons for this week, we wanted to alert everyone to something very significant that may be happening with the US dollar and why it matters so much. One of the most potentially important charts of the past week came from Morgan Stanley’s currency team, which in essence suggested that the USD may be evolving from a safe haven currency into a risk currency. That means that how the USD both influences and is influenced by ... (full story)

 

 

  1. Comments

Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,124
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:32am Mar 10, 2013 5:32am
If you include all the costs of discovering and producing gold it costs in the region of 1300-1450 according to various estimates so I don't think it has potential to go below lower bound of this estimate. On the other hand even though economy is slowing china is buying record number of gold, Russia and Brazil are also buying.
With regard to QE. The slowdown has already been priced in in my opinion to a certain extend.

With regards to Inflation it has been low according to official figures...buying stuff feels much more expensive than it did even 5 yrs ago, at least in UK.

/i dont know where we will go from here but I dont think gold is that much overvalued.
  • #3,125
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:37am Mar 10, 2013 5:37am
About QE ... In my view, what I think will actually happen in anticipation of reduction in QE , people will start to front running the fed and dump treasuries, since increase in yields will lead to losses, this dump in treasuries will results in excess dollars floating around looking for a place to park and hence dollar will depreciate.
  • #3,126
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:38am Mar 10, 2013 5:38am
Quoting serdarsil
While chasing 4-5 dolar moves , do not forget that 1,4xx's are yet to come .. QE could not last forever, and will soon be slowed .. Look at the bond prices across Europe .. They are slowly turning to normal levels. China exports are rising .. Gold was so highly valued because, we all were believing that financial system would collapse. It did not.

Even 14xx's are high compared to inflation, occured in last 10 years. I value gold around 1000-1200 dollars/ounce. That price needs time but 14xx's can very fast be seen. Be veeeery careful.

It...
then i .m short from now...lol
  • #3,127
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:40am Mar 10, 2013 5:40am
fyi

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...tles_East.html
  • #3,128
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:54am Mar 10, 2013 5:54am
Quoting elekboy
then i .m short from now...lol
try to keep on laughing through the following week
  • #3,129
  • Mar 10, 2013 5:58am Mar 10, 2013 5:58am
Quoting serdarsil
try to keep on laughing through the following week
why not...? as a trader volatility is good....
  • #3,130
  • Mar 10, 2013 6:02am Mar 10, 2013 6:02am
Quoting lexazver
If you include all the costs of discovering and producing gold it costs in the region of 1300-1450 according to various estimates so I don't think it has potential to go below lower bound of this estimate.

/i dont know where we will go from here but I dont think gold is that much overvalued.
If you accept that production cost of gold did not change dramatically in the last two years. Gold industry wer on loss before than . As the prices wer always below 1100 .

Do you really believe that cost of production is around 1300-1450 ?
  • #3,131
  • Mar 10, 2013 6:11am Mar 10, 2013 6:11am
Quoting serdarsil
If you accept that production cost of gold did not change dramatically in the last two years. Gold industry wer on loss before than . As the prices wer always below 1100 .

Do you really believe that cost of production is around 1300-1450 ?
i think gold should drop to at least 14xx but no lower but then again it might go to 1200...all we can do is wait and see...

as far as production cost i find it very wierd that it might be at 1100 as prices didnt start moving away from 300 until 2000....
but i do agree with sinclairs view of gold prices going to 4000. it's just logical that gold used to pay down debts and the easiest way to do that is increase price of gold. then they can print away as long as price of gold increases proportionally

my 2 cents....
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #3,132
  • Mar 10, 2013 6:22am Mar 10, 2013 6:22am
Quoting gnomoneey
i think gold should drop to at least 14xx but no lower but then again it might go to 1200...all we can do is wait and see...

as far as production cost i find it very wierd that it might be at 1100 as prices didnt start moving away from 300 until 2000....
but i do agree with sinclairs view of gold prices going to 4000. it's just logical that gold used to pay down debts and the easiest way to do that is increase price of gold. then they can print away as long as price of gold increases proportionally

my 2 cents....

I did not mean that cost of production is 1100 .. There was a reasoning there about 1100 .. Probably I am misunderstood ..

About 4000 tellers:

Until the end of 2012, almost all the big banks were talking of 2000 $/ounce level in 2013..

How about now ?

Goldman Sachs started saying 1200 $/ounce in a few years .. Those guys are total garbage .. No use ..

I will be keeping my 1 lot short from 1674 $, until 1475 $...
  • #3,133
  • Mar 10, 2013 6:48am Mar 10, 2013 6:48am
Quoting serdarsil
If you accept that production cost of gold did not change dramatically in the last two years. Gold industry wer on loss before than . As the prices wer always below 1100 .

Do you really believe that cost of production is around 1300-1450 ?
Yes I do.

the costs of production have rocketed in the last few years (speaking of no inflation) due to the quality of ORE- it has deteriorated.
  • #3,134
  • Mar 10, 2013 7:01am Mar 10, 2013 7:01am
Quoting lexazver
Yes I do.

the costs of production have rocketed in the last few years (speaking of no inflation) due to the quality of ORE- it has deteriorated.
fyi,
Attached Image
  • #3,135
  • Mar 10, 2013 7:10am Mar 10, 2013 7:10am
Quoting elekboy
fyi,
Oh I see .. Then since the price is @ 1578 currently, they are working for an "unacceptable profit"

I hope they do not have to work for an "very unaccaeptable loss" soon
  • #3,136
  • Mar 10, 2013 7:33am Mar 10, 2013 7:33am
Quoting serdarsil
Oh I see .. Then since the price is @ 1578 currently, they are working for an "unacceptable profit"

I hope they do not have to work for an "very unaccaeptable loss" soon
i think they wont pay the taxes or close the company....lol
  • #3,137
  • Mar 10, 2013 7:40am Mar 10, 2013 7:40am
Quoting elekboy
i think they wont pay the taxes or close the company....lol

Every report posted is made for people to buy a sh*t from 1600 $, which was 300$/ounce 10 years ago ..

From the graph I see that they have been successfull in that ..

Now the game is to rebuy this sh*it from 1000 $ and sell again from $3000 and so on .. Thats what happened in past and is gonna happen in future ...
  • #3,138
  • Mar 10, 2013 2:42pm Mar 10, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting serdarsil
Every report posted is made for people to buy a sh*t from 1600 $, which was 300$/ounce 10 years ago ..

From the graph I see that they have been successfull in that ..

Now the game is to rebuy this sh*it from 1000 $ and sell again from $3000 and so on .. Thats what happened in past and is gonna happen in future ...
Well said, and like all those scam or pronzi scheme must break at one top at some time .
I see one of my post in some forum in 2008 when gold was 650$ .
so will look forwards my level test 1032$ in future if true with lots adjustment readjustment in the whole world economy & prices , actually think they ( market prices ) will remain intact , revalue up at the pace gold down if not more now actually until an equilibrium again set up. so commodities & services remain up if not more up at the cost of gold down , may be average 2008 value back or nearer!!
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #3,139
  • Mar 10, 2013 2:50pm Mar 10, 2013 2:50pm
Feels like we are gonna start with 1575 ... Maybe 1550 will be seen during the day ... Lets watch ..
  • #3,140
  • Mar 10, 2013 3:23pm Mar 10, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting serdarsil
Feels like we are gonna start with 1575 ... Maybe 1550 will be seen during the day ... Lets watch ..
Hope not 1550$ unless another direct crush starts .1573/66 $ should be ok . lets see .
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 17 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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