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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #2,081
  • Mar 9, 2013 6:31pm Mar 9, 2013 6:31pm
Long or short? Head and shoulders or resumption of a down trend. Maybe I just answered my last question...
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #2,082
  • Mar 9, 2013 6:32pm Mar 9, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting albchr
Interesting read Terry. Especially when you couple it with what Bob mentioned about the COT report.



All this noise about how short the YEN is makes me wonder. But that's just my inherent mistrust of the folks that put this kind of information out...LOL

Still, it tempts me to go all in shorting the sucker.

I try not to look at cot with much trust, but just doing my fundamental numbers, the yen is still way to high for what they are trying to reach.. If they reach 2% within 2 years they will be luck, and look at the dollar index as well, it's just now starting to turn upwards from a massive fall. That matched with amazing U.S numbers these past few weeks shows that we are starting to stabilize a bit

And yea, 100 pips, I see about 120ish for years end on UJ... that would put this around 180-190

Of course there will be pull backs along the way as expected, unless its like december of 08, this sucker went down 5100 pips! Maybe we will get a bull candle with that amount in the near future...
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  • #2,083
  • Mar 9, 2013 6:41pm Mar 9, 2013 6:41pm
If you want you can compare the current situation to the dot com boom.... It was easy money in front of everyone's eyes and they thought it was too good to be true.... I see the YEN situation being very similar. Of course I am not afraid to be wrong, I know when to cut losers but I do not see a reversal coming anywhere in the near future.
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  • #2,084
  • Mar 9, 2013 6:47pm Mar 9, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting albchr
Interesting read Terry. Especially when you couple it with what Bob mentioned about the COT report.



All this noise about how short the YEN is makes me wonder. But that's just my inherent mistrust of the folks that put this kind of information out...LOL

Still, it tempts me to go all in shorting the sucker.

Chris,

I wouldn't worry so much about the COT Report. Take a look at Oanda's Historical Open Position Ratios chart for USD/JPY. You will see that retail longs are still no where close to where they were for the majority of 2012.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions
  • #2,085
  • Mar 9, 2013 6:48pm Mar 9, 2013 6:48pm
Quoting deanbo
Long or short? Head and shoulders or resumption of a down trend. Maybe I just answered my last question...
USD/JPY just broke out to the upside again this past week so I see 100 in the cards in the coming weeks. Something to consider when looking to trade other JPY cross pairs.
  • #2,086
  • Mar 9, 2013 6:52pm Mar 9, 2013 6:52pm
Well, at least they "claim" they want 2% anyway...LOL

I don't trust ANY of these suckers which is why I do my best to just "follow" PA and not assume anything based on the noise. The USD numbers are BS and everyone knows it. 7.7 UP? PLEASE...LOL More like 14.2 in reality. 236k jobs? Sure but they don't mention the loss of 200k or the fact that another 300k dropped out of the job search do they. The reality is we've had about 22k new jobs each of the past two months. Now, does that mean those numbers won't cause the dollar (and Dow) to rise? Nope and in fact it's driving them higher as we type.

But it's been my "limited" view that once folks get comfortable "assuming" that's the trend, they yank the rug out and WHACK the retailers. I'll follow it as far as I can but in the back of my head I'm just waiting for the sudden change around the corner.

As far as I can see on the YEN, USD and GBP indexes, they are all at a point where turning suddenly is certainly possible.

Let's face it, the folks behind the numbers are NOT trying to help us....LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #2,087
  • Mar 9, 2013 6:58pm Mar 9, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting BobGnarly
If you want you can compare the current situation to the dot com boom.... It was easy money in front of everyone's eyes and they thought it was too good to be true.... I see the YEN situation being very similar. Of course I am not afraid to be wrong, I know when to cut losers but I do not see a reversal coming anywhere in the near future.
You're right, from a weekly and even monthly perspective we have a clear uptrend for ALL JPY cross pairs as well as obviously USD/JPY.

JPY already broke a 6 year trend line late last year! We aren't going back to where we came from anytime soon in my opinion.

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-19.png

In the chart above, you’ll see the yen making higher highs until around last November. Those highs happened on lower volume, which got my attention.

However, the top has taken a long time to form. It’s taken around a year for the yen to break its uptrend line. In fact, you’ll see from the red arches that it’s been forming a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern over the last couple of years which is another sign the yen has topped out.
  • #2,088
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:09pm Mar 9, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
You're right, from a weekly and even monthly perspective we have a clear uptrend for ALL JPY cross pairs as well as obviously USD/JPY.

JPY already broke a 6 year trend line late last year! We aren't going back to where we came from anytime soon in my opinion.
I'm not sure how to read that chart Terry. I look at the index charts which for the YEN, is inverted meaning the higher it goes, the weaker the YEN. So moving down shows strength. I take it that's not what that chart is showing?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #2,089
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:14pm Mar 9, 2013 7:14pm
FXY is the yen ETF, FXY down = yen weak, pairs ending in /JPY up.
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  • #2,090
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:17pm Mar 9, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting albchr
I'm not sure how to read that chart Terry. I look at the index charts which for the YEN, is inverted meaning the higher it goes, the weaker the YEN. So moving down shows strength. I take it that's not what that chart is showing?
FXY is a Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust which is designed to track the price of the Japanese Yen net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited Japanese Yen..

Bottom Line: Late 2012 a 6-year ascending trend line for FXY was broken to the downside confirming a change of direction for the JPY.
  • #2,091
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:17pm Mar 9, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting whatever007
FXY is the yen ETF, FXY down = yen weak, pairs ending in /JPY up.
  • #2,092
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:17pm Mar 9, 2013 7:17pm
YEN index monthly. Yen has been falling fast since June 2012. At an interesting point on the TL and 50% fib. Now if it falls through that support this month, I'll be happy to accept it will likely keep getting weaker. But it seems to me like it's at a point where it could turn and get stronger. Especially given the last months bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lfxjpy_month.png Size: 34 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #2,093
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:21pm Mar 9, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting whatever007
FXY is the yen ETF, FXY down = yen weak, pairs ending in /JPY up.
Gotcha

Thanks whatever. I've never seen that type of chart.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #2,094
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:23pm Mar 9, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
FXY is a Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust which is designed to track the price of the Japanese Yen net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited Japanese Yen..

Bottom Line: Late 2012 a 6-year ascending trend line for FXY was broken to the downside confirming a change of direction for the JPY.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #2,095
  • Mar 9, 2013 8:01pm Mar 9, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
You're right, from a weekly and even monthly perspective we have a clear uptrend for ALL JPY cross pairs as well as obviously USD/JPY.

JPY already broke a 6 year trend line late last year! We aren't going back to where we came from anytime soon in my opinion.

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-19.png

In the chart above, you’ll see the yen making higher highs until around last November. Those highs happened on lower volume, which got my attention.

However, the top has taken a long time to form. It’s taken...
That chart was in an article by Sean Hyman back in November.

You should have sourced him dude or just put a link to his article.

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-news-for-ycs/
Trade at your own risk.
  • #2,096
  • Mar 9, 2013 8:15pm Mar 9, 2013 8:15pm
Quoting Fx3423454
That chart was in an article by Sean Hyman back in November.

You should have sourced him dude or just put a link to his article.

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-news-for-ycs/
Good work detective.

If you follow my "JPY Cross Pairs" thread you would notice that I ALWAYS link articles to their source.

**I only posted the chart, not the entire article so I didn't think it was 100% necessary. It's just a FXY chart with a trend line man...

Here you go Fx3423454, here is me sourcing Sean Hyman giving him credit: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post6409013
  • #2,097
  • Mar 9, 2013 8:33pm Mar 9, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Good work detective.

If you follow my "JPY Cross Pairs" thread you would notice that I ALWAYS link articles to their source.

**I only posted the chart, not the entire article so I didn't think it was 100% necessary. It's just a FXY chart with a trend line man...

Here you go Fx3423454, here is me sourcing Sean Hyman giving him credit: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post6409013

I didn't mean anything by it - anyway nice trade set ups for this week. I actually had the same thing in mind.

I was going to hop in there on Friday too but I decided to wait until Sunday, I like to wait for the Bullish 5/10 EMA Crossover which has already happened on the USD/JPY and the AUD/JPY on the H1.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #2,098
  • Mar 10, 2013 6:54am Mar 10, 2013 6:54am
ucad is losing momentum big time, Time for selling?
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  • #2,099
  • Mar 10, 2013 10:41am Mar 10, 2013 10:41am
It might be soon but i would hold off just a bit before shorting it
  • #2,100
  • Mar 10, 2013 11:57am Mar 10, 2013 11:57am
Quoting KillerWhale
ucad is losing momentum big time, Time for selling?
I bet the folks over the in CAD thread have more knowledge about it.
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