Euro/Dollar | Page 165 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

Euro/Dollar discussion 9 replies

Iran to replace Dollar with Euro 10 replies

Iran replace dollar with euro 15 replies

Syria Threatens To Abandon Dollar For Euro 3 replies

euro against the dollar 0 replies

Attachments: Euro/Dollar
Exit Attachments

Euro/Dollar

  • #3,281
  • Mar 9, 2013 10:30am Mar 9, 2013 10:30am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello Myo,
I like your thorough analysis and although I never try to read too much into fundamentals because we never know what is reflected and what is not yet and when fundamentals will start having a grasp on price, I have to say that it makes sense (not an endorsement).

Of course technicals are what counts and I agree with your analysis. Would not give too much meaning to the 1.30-1.40 range, because I believe deep pockets money are free to move price of the Euro for hundreds of pips. Indeed my analysis says that we could see...
you may be on to something here, G......

"......following the exclusive series of the Fed's direct bailout of European banks and, indirectly of Europe, will not be surprised at all to learn that in the week ended February 27, or the week in which Europe went into a however brief tailspin following the shocking defeat of Bersani in the Italian elections, and an even more shocking victory by Berlusconi and Grillo, leading to a political vacuum and a hung parliament, the Fed injected a record $99 billion of excess reserves into foreign banks.

As the most recent H.8 statement makes very clear, soared from $836 billion to a near-record $936 billion, or a $99.3 billion reserve "reallocation" in the form of cash - very, very fungible cash - into foreign (read European) banks in one week."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...g-us-past-week
  • #3,282
  • Mar 9, 2013 10:59am Mar 9, 2013 10:59am
Hi Myo,
it's saturday we are well into the weekend and I had no intention to start a fight. I abide to the same rules weekdays, too

Of course everyone starts from a different sets of beliefs and indeed, we trade our beliefs and not the markets. But your beliefs are different from mine, as well as, my experience with charts has been more positive than yours.
You will only be a loser if you feel it. I would only say that currently you are in the process of loosing, but you have all the powers to change that process.

Good luck.

Quoting Myo
Thank you, Fibstalker. Technicals vs. Fundamentals is clearly a can of worms - letīs not open it now, because Iīm not in a fighting mood. But since you got your shot in, let me state that, in a nutshell, I believe that technical trading alone can never work (quantative trading excluded). Charts have no predictive value on their own and big money doesnīt trade them. I have to admit that I tried to trade technicals in the past and failed, so maybe Iīm just an embittered loser (though I donīt feel like it).
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,283
  • Mar 9, 2013 11:06am Mar 9, 2013 11:06am
Hello Roro,
thanks for that. We will see. As you know I trade specific rules followed by Program Trading and I think I have demonstrated so far they have a very high reliability.
So they are '...buying the news'. We will see. My line in the sand for the Euro is 1.2700. Below that we can see a full retrace into 1.2130 and counting...

Also last year in July people and 'prestigious' institutions were projecting the Euro down at 1.13.We rallied from 1.20... and a lot of people have been selling highs and higher prices... It's always the same, so good luck with fundamentals... ;-)

I think the Euro is going to move to 1.41. Lot's of people think that is impossible in the face of the Euro-crisis. However, forex crosses always trade against another currency. Who says that the Dollar is going to be stronger than the Euro? On the other hand, if we trade below 1.2700 I will be happy to keep trading the Euro short. When a door slams, they say,an even bigger door opens... so why worry?

Quoting roro53
you may be on to something here, G......

"......following the exclusive series of the Fed's direct bailout of European banks and, indirectly of Europe, will not be surprised at all to learn that in the week ended February 27, or the week in which Europe went into a however brief tailspin following the shocking defeat of Bersani in the Italian elections, and an even more shocking victory by Berlusconi and Grillo, leading to a political vacuum and a hung parliament, the Fed injected a record $99 billion of excess reserves...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,284
  • Mar 9, 2013 11:13am Mar 9, 2013 11:13am
Quoting fibstalker
I would only say that currently you are in the process of loosing, but you have all the powers to change that process.

Good luck.
I put it in the wrong way. I donīt lose in the strict sense of the word, but with technicals alone, Iīm a breakeven trader. And to me thatīs the same as losing, after all.
  • #3,285
  • Mar 9, 2013 11:17am Mar 9, 2013 11:17am
It's a good result, very good. Just keep trying and you will make it.
GL


Quoting Myo
I put it in the wrong way. I donīt lose in the strict sense of the word, but with technicals alone, Iīm a breakeven trader. And to me thatīs the same as losing, after all.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,286
  • Edited 1:09pm Mar 9, 2013 12:57pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting fibstalker
It's a good result, very good. Just keep trying and you will make it.
GL
Thanks for your encouraging words, but (Iīm starting to sound like a negative nancy again - bare with me, itīs not who I am) itīs exactly why Iīm leaving it behind. Breakeven means nothing to me. I donīt see it as a "stage" in some well-trodded development path for traders; the last step on the ladder before you reach consistent profitability. In my opinion "trading breakeven" rather means, I could as well have flipped a coin for my entries instead of using TA and would have gotten the same results (and I tried all the methods, believe me). Thereīs just no edge in it (means: Based on my experience, I donīt see how somebody could possibly develop a consistently winning edge based on price action alone. I just donīt see it anymore.) Btw, I would love to see somebody prove me wrong. After all, TA is much easier than FA, lol.
  • #3,287
  • Mar 9, 2013 1:07pm Mar 9, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting fibstalker
Also last year in July people and 'prestigious' institutions were projecting the Euro down at 1.13.We rallied from 1.20... and a lot of people have been selling highs and higher prices... It's always the same, so good luck with fundamentals... ;-)

"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough."

Mario Draghiīs (now famous) words at an Investment conference in London, 26th July 2012.


You just made a point for fundamentals, because this is what sparked the rally and nothing else. Clear as daylight. Of course you could argue that price just bounced from the 50% fib drawn from all-time-high to all-time-low, or maybe some obscure MAs crossed on that day but, I mean, come on....when this stuff works, it works big time.
  • #3,288
  • Mar 9, 2013 2:22pm Mar 9, 2013 2:22pm
Imo only fundamentals drive the market - TA is used by institutional traders and cannon fodder in the retail section to execute the trade, big boys and long term investors don't even look at the charts, ask Rogers and others alike him.
Remember even the most reliable candle pattern can fail when somebody important open his mouth or numbers come up much worst/better then expected. You always have to be aware what is going on in the big picture in front of you, the longer I spend my free time in FX the more I am leaning toward FA trading,
Choosing your path depend on your goals as well but even if you are going for those 20 a day, you should know which direction to take and what is the motive behind the move,
And that is why FA cannot be ignored, it is just trying to be smarter than the market - that will fail in the long term.
swing it!
  • #3,289
  • Mar 9, 2013 5:18pm Mar 9, 2013 5:18pm
Floored

Inserted Video
  • #3,290
  • Mar 10, 2013 11:06am Mar 10, 2013 11:06am
Missing a piece, Myo, not only it bounced, but broke the sequence of moves lower first on the daily and then on the weekly. I always wait for confirmation... but look, you don't have to convince me. I am happy about it... and profiting from it, and when I am wrong there area always stops, like any other tool of TA....

Quoting Myo
"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough."

Mario Draghiīs (now famous) words at an Investment conference in London, 26th July 2012.


You just made a point for fundamentals, because this is what sparked the rally and nothing else. Clear as daylight. Of course you could argue that price just bounced from the 50% fib drawn from all-time-high to all-time-low, or maybe some obscure MAs crossed on that day but, I mean, come on....when this stuff works, it works big...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,291
  • Mar 10, 2013 11:50am Mar 10, 2013 11:50am
Wrong, if you are a break-even trader it means the overall reliability of your method is higher than 50% and you are doing a great job with MM.
Cheers!


Quoting Myo
Thanks for your encouraging words, but (Iīm starting to sound like a negative nancy again - bare with me, itīs not who I am) itīs exactly why Iīm leaving it behind. Breakeven means nothing to me. I donīt see it as a "stage" in some well-trodded development path for traders; the last step on the ladder before you reach consistent profitability. In my opinion "trading breakeven" rather means, I could as well have flipped a coin for my entries instead of using TA and would have gotten the same results (and I tried all the methods, believe me)....
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,292
  • Mar 10, 2013 12:12pm Mar 10, 2013 12:12pm
Hello,
what's the current correlation between the Euro and the S&P500? While I leave that question to intermarket analysts, this is my view on the S&P500 e-mini for next week. Let me know what you think.
Thanks!

Last week scenario 2 played out and price keep moving higher into the first target at 1,544 because the 1,489 area of support was already tested successfully. The second target is higher at 1,576.
The inner move on the daily chart had support in the 1499 area and price never moved below 1,493. This long setup hit both first and second targets, respectively at 1,530 and 1,546,last week.

The following two scenarios were identified (refer to the below picture):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362935379

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next extension long measured move on the daily chart and then resumes it's move higher into the first target at 1,554 and then into the second target at 1,564, helping price into the final target at 1,576.

Scenario 2. Price corrects deeper into the 1522 area and then resumes the move higher towards the 1,576 target.

Have a great trading week.
Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,293
  • Mar 13, 2013 7:14pm Mar 13, 2013 7:14pm
Hello all,
this is my Euro update for a new swing long about to begin. In my humble opinion if you have still swing shorts you should close them.
I don't think all the bad news about Europe automatically signify lower prices, actually the opposite. At the moment it looks like everybody is buying Dollars and selling the Euro: a good environment for a solid chart-based and rule-based analysis.

As usual, use at your own risk.

As anticipated (see the previous analysis) the Euro corrected down into the 1.2900 area, stopping today at 1.2931. I anticipate a bounce higher now from the current price level. We still don't know exactly where the bounce will come from.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363219417

I have the two scenarios below:

Scenario 1. Price is now within an area in which we could see strong participation on the upside. Above 1.3030 (based on current lows at 1.2931) the confirmation of support will come and price will start a move into the 1.4080-1.41 area. The start of the move higher could come from lower levels at 1.2915 or even 1.2840, if price dips lower.

Scenario 2. There is still a possibility price could keep moving lower past the 1.2769 and 1.2712 level (the latter ist he line in the sand). Below 1.2712 we could have a very high probable retest retest of the 1.2130 area of monthly support. However my belief is that scenario 2 has low probability at the moment.

Let me know what you think.
Thank you.
-fibstalker

PS: the video for tomorrow will shortly be on my Blog
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,294
  • Mar 14, 2013 9:30am Mar 14, 2013 9:30am
Euro update, support?

Price hit the 1.2920 area of target related to the last short entry and resistance at 1.3070. Thus that move has ended. The next level of resistance in the daily short sequence comes in the 1.3000 area towards which we are currently retracing.

Two potential scenarios:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363271050

Scenario 1. Price is correcting towards the 1.3000 area, the next short setup. If price moves above 1.3020 the sequence of moves lower ends and support on the 1.2910-20 area is confirmed. In this case we could see price hit the 20-day SMA before a retrace, with price not moving below the 1.2918 level (current lows).

Scenario 2. Price respects the next short setup never piercing the 1.3019 level on the upside and resume the move lower into the 1.2880 level (1st target) that lines up with the 200-day SMA

Let me know what you think.
Thanks
Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,295
  • Mar 14, 2013 11:27am Mar 14, 2013 11:27am
Hello traders,
an update for the USD Dollar Index that can be helpful not only for trading the EUR/USD (52% of the Dollar Index) but also the other major pairs USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

We had a sequence a of two traditional measured moves higher: the first with long entry in the 82.30 area with target in 83. The second with entry in the 82.70 area and targets at 83.40 (today's highs). We now have a new (third) long setup in the sequence at the 83.00 area (check the picture below).

The third long setup just traded: support was shown at the 83.01 level. This long setup has a stop, and failure level, below 82.90. Below this level the sequence of measured move is interrupted and we could see the start of the move lower in the Dollar Index (Scenario 1)

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363277753

Here are my two scenarios, as usual:

Scenario 1. If price comes below the 82.90 level the sequence of measured moves higher on the daily chart ends and price could start its move towards the 20-day SMA (partial targets area). The move could then continue lower after a bounce.

Scenario 2. If the next setup long on the daily chart is respected, i.e. price of the index never moves below 82.90 there is the possibility of a continuation higher into the next target at the 83.60 area (1st target) and even higher.

Let me know what you think.
Thank you

PS: Euro FX futures just approaching the resistance at 1.3000 in my last analysis
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,296
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:25am Mar 15, 2013 8:25am
Hello all,
Euro going up as anticipated in past analysis.This is an update on the 4-hour chart.

By piercing on the upside the level I have indicated yesterday,i.e. 1.3020, price confirmed the 1.2900 area of support. It does not mean that area could not be retested, but with a confirmation, a potential retest should now hold.

The 1.3010 extension long setup on the 4-hour chart held yesterday and brough price into the 1.3060 area (1st target) and then the 1.3080 area (2nd target). Next support and long entry now at 1.3075

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363353467

My two scenarios as usual (see picture above):

Scenario 1. If the 1.3066 level is pierced on the downside there are two important level to watch where we could see bounces. The first level is 1.3015-20 area, while the second is the 1.2980 area. We don't know where price will stop and reverse. If we get this move lower now this is will be the opportunity for Program Trading to establish or add to longs. If we don't get the retrace now, we will eventually have a retrace. So don't rush to longs. (notice that sometimes even after breaking below 1.3066 the 'busted' setup can reach the 1.3120 area of target anyway, before correcting lower into the indicated levels)

Scenario 2. The next level of support and long entry is at 1.3075 with a stop below 1.3065. If price holds this long setup we could see the 1.3120 area hit (1st target) and then price hit the 1.3140 area (2nd target)

Let me know what you think.
Thank you
GL

Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,297
  • Mar 17, 2013 2:37pm Mar 17, 2013 2:37pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-sp-open-30pts

so what you were saying about fundamental trading?how situation in Cyprus fits to those perfect looking levels and robot trading?
There is always final decision between two people talking on the phone...
good luck
swing it!
  • #3,298
  • Edited 12:04pm Mar 18, 2013 11:49am | Edited 12:04pm
Hello all,
this is my updated view on the Euro.

The gap down in the morning due to news, coming from Cyprus, brought price right into that 1.2900 area where I anticipate long participation since a few weeks now. A few people think today's price action is going to change the Euro weekly patterns (those very same people could have their head handed over to them if they traded the news today), but the pattern will only change if price moves below the 1.2715 level. I am talking about swing trades here (those who read my post know that's my trading style).

Some people remain objective in the face of news and the emotions they bring about. I will keep trading my method that has served me nicely and I believe it will keep doing so. I am living for a planned trip abroad so I will leave my longer-term view on FF. I will return on April the 7th and will resume posting after that. I know some people don't like my style of analysis and trading (of course, could it be different? We are all different) and I am not going to argue with them. I write for those who want to have access to a slightly different read of the markets to entertain or help complement their own analysis.

Hereunder the chart and the analysis:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_daily_trading_plan_20130318.png Size: 55 KB


The scenarios I see are the following:

Scenario 1. This is the original scenario which is still up and running, besides yesterday's Cyprus news. This is the highest probability scenario.I believe the market knew already what was happening in Cyprus since a few weeks and this was reflected in price. I am more prone to believe that price has already discounted this, rather than the opposite. If this news was truly affecting the Euro currency, we would have probably seen price continue lower in the morning instead of reversing. Also Euro price tested the 200-day SMA, watched by a lot of retail traders. We have seen the Euro rally in the face of the hardest times in Europe in the last 3-4 years. Nothing to be surprised of. Of course, anything can happen, but I will stick to the long weekly pattern my method is giving me, until that pattern is invalidated. Swing targets in the 1.4090-1.4100 area.

Scenario 2. Should price keep moving lower and through the 1.2715 level (lower probability), I would then anticipate price moving down into the next long level participated by Program Trading, which is 1.2650. Here two different scenarios could open up: 2a and 2b.

Scenario 2a. Price could find participation into the next level of participation on the downside at the 1.3180 area; at this stage 2 more scenario would open up (2a,1 and 2a,2, see below)

Scenario 2b. Price could just keep moving lower and below 1.2515 a retest of 1.2140 would be possible.

Scenario 2a,1. Once at 1.3180, price could just continue higher above 1.3320; or

Scenario 2a,2. Once at 1.3180, price could continue lower towards its first target at the 1.24 area.

Good luck to you all and see you soon.
Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,299
  • Mar 18, 2013 2:31pm Mar 18, 2013 2:31pm
Until COT is balanced once more and there is a fundamental reason to be bullish we are going down, no both direction scenarios,
no 1.40 by the 3rd quarter if ever this year,
I still see 2816 maybe tommorow, and have only lower targets,
We all have our methods, we all see market in the different way,
There is a visible flight of capital to safe heaven assets which can be seen in CHF,GBP,AUD, Dollar & as I stated yesterday in Gold,
With current situation I have absolutely no idea how someone can see 1,40 as a valid target for this year.
Current leg is not a retracement - we are in the downtrend from 1,37
swing it!
  • #3,300
  • Mar 18, 2013 3:27pm Mar 18, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting tomspin
Until COT is balanced once more and there is a fundamental reason to be bullish we are going down, no both direction scenarios,
no 1.40 by the 3rd quarter if ever this year,
I still see 2816 maybe tommorow, and have only lower targets,
We all have our methods, we all see market in the different way,
There is a visible flight of capital to safe heaven assets which can be seen in CHF,GBP,AUD, Dollar & as I stated yesterday in Gold,
With current situation I have absolutely no idea how someone can see 1,40 as a valid target for this year.
Current...
hmmmmmmm....remember this page 154 from Nov 16, 2012?.........indexes bottomed that day.....not long after the FED announced FLOW

Quote
Post by tomspin
Nov 16, 2012 5:58am

@ RORO..... about indices,
Footsie bearish until 5430
Dow bearish until 12315 and 1200 as a big barrier imo
CAC40 could bounce about 3290 but since its ranging more than others I would bet on 2885 possibly.
I would short any rallies.
0 traders viewing now