Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

Not at all, big boys are just filtering in. Why do you think it got slapped after a stellar nfp number? Seems very odd to me , I was so close at pulling the trigger on E J and the fooker ran up 100 pips . Just shows buying on the dips. If you look at the fall in the yen pairs over the last few years and peiple are bitching about us rallying 1,000 pips hahha. The yen will be insanely low in a few years...

And albchr I only TRY predicting the future haha , haven't mastered it YET


Now back to my rum and coke, also had a person looking to invest, talk to me today might be opening a redifx account with goldman

Just to add to the confusion did a big seller(s) step in at the 144.75 level? The daily candle has a fairly big wick on it from the push down from this level.

Okay what's gained and lost this week?

My Oanda FX Trade account gained 3.5% which is great, my newly opened Oanda MT4 account gained 4.5% mostly due to GJ, that's great too.

What do I have left?

A 15 pip negative GJ trade.
Some underwater trades short UCAD (underwater in my def is more than 100 pips) but give it a few weeks and they will all be in profit.
A 13 pip positive Indian Rupee trade. For the purpose of gaining the 7.5% interest India is willing to give.

That's the balance as off now and I'm happy with it.

I've never seen the point in managing others' money. It's not worth it.

Not so odd really. A few years back when I was trading more actively I learned to never trade during big news events and especially during NFP. UJ is affected and GU is affected and by extension GJ is affected. After the big run up late in the week we had several hours of ranging at around 143-144. NFP drew closer and price creeped up and up and then fell after the announcement. Perfect example of buy the rumor and sell the news. After the NFP noise subsided we were back ranging where we started. I was on the sidelines through the news and picked up a few positions once the price came back to where it was prior to the NFP. Holding 3 longs through the weekend at 3.34, 3.19 and 2.89. Could have held out for some lower positions, but I missed those opportunity.

I don't see too many people are interested in Andrew's pitchforks here, but I think it's one thing to tame this beast for sure...

Lolz I was wondering why nothing was moving, then I found out it is Friday and markets are closed.
I thought it was Thursday

The location of that daily pin tells me it was probably more profit taking than "big sellers" coming in. Had that wick been completely above the 144.75 level you marked and then closed below it with that shape, I'd give it more weight.

I had planned to smart a small fund and llc, I am very excited I had a person approach me. Its not a huge amount but enough to get me started.

I will buy you a dinner if she goes south monday.

I have noticed this head and shoulders set up forming on the daily chart. It is something I will be watching next week to see if it fully develops. Currently it looks quite promising.

Zoom out on the monthly .... Got a long ways to go.

Well, good luck dude. I've done it in the past, but I've never found it to be worth my time, dealing with someone else, the compensation, etc. I'd just rather trade my own funds and keep 100%

Thanks, man. I will be using a forex copier so I wont have to worry about running multiple accounts to trade on. This is just to get my toes in the water, if it turns out to be something that I will hate then I will just stop. This person is very well aware of risks etc..

I dunno what forex copier is, but quick Google search explains it a bit. Make sure you've got something in place to get your profits debited to you automatically. The first time I managed someone's account, I did it separately, made him a BUNCH of money in the first month, then he just POOF was gone and didn't pay me out. Pissed me off!

After that, I required accounts to be setup with MBT as a managed account (need a limited power of attorney agreement to trade funds and that's about all). The nice thing was you could adjust the % cut and they'd automatically debit it out each month. The other great thing was I had it setup so that I only had to place trades in one account (my primary one) and it'd make the same trades in the other accounts with the percent adjustments for the equity.

For example, if my account was $100k and an investor account was $10k, they'd take the same trade in his/her account, but with a tenth of the position side.

For what you're doing right now, you'll probably be fine the way you're doing things. But if you want to scale it to where you're managing a fair number of accounts, you'll want a better solution.

Can you please upload your daily chart with the horizontal line?

Goodbye Mr Shirakawa and a Strong JPY


Masaaki Shirakawa chaired his last monetary policy meeting this week as governor of the Bank of Japan, but even before his departure tolerance of a strong JPY was already killed off by the new government. What follows now could be the next big leg down in the JPY exchange rate.

Haruhiko Kuroda, widely expected to be the new governor, uttered that now very familiar sentiment expressed by central bankers of doing “whatever” we can do to end deflation in Japan. He complained that the BoJ had failed to do enough monetary stimulus, suggested it could target longer-dated government bonds, start its aggressive monetary stimulus sooner than next year and should try to raise inflation to 2% within two years.

Next month Kuroda will have an opportunity to demonstrate his radicalism and may well start open ended asset purchases by the BoJ within months rather than next year. Such a commitment is likely to see JPY quickly crash through the USD/JPY 100 level mooted as a target exchange rate level by Japan’s authorities. Depending on the tolerance of other major central banks towards the BoJ’s policies, JPY could even reach USDJPY110-115 by the end of the year if not much sooner.

USD already breaking out against JPY
http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-conten...3-1024x642.jpg

The Oddball Of Central Banking

Shirakawa was considered as something of an oddity in central banking and financial circles and was out of tune with the more proactive approach epitomised by US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke of creating vast amounts of new money to counter deflation, to restart economic growth and to fight unemployment.

However, on reflection Shirakawa’s arguments for pursuing a less aggressive monetary policy are rooted in some quite sound arguments. The way he saw it Japan’s major problem was its ageing population. It’s not a particularly exciting argument, but it is a compelling one that deserves some consideration.

Nearly a quarter of Japan’s 128 million population is over the age of 65 and by 2060 that is forecast to rise to 40% with the population shrinking to 87 million people. Simple logic dictates that with household consumption comprising 60% of the economy, there is bound to be less growth and even deflation as the BoJ has often noted in its own research. People who are over 65 tend to spend less and their consumption patterns change.

Interestingly, Shirakawa also warned that the West now faces the same demographic time bomb that went off in Japan around two decades ago. Unfortunately, currency debasement is unlikely to turn the clock back on the consumption patterns of older people, something Shirakawa appeared to understand better than the rest of the central banking community.

The effects of demographic decline cannot be sustainably reversed by quantitative easing and infrastructure projects. A more sinister interpretation for the enthusiasm for aggressive QE is to erode high debt levels through inflation as sustained economic growth is not happening.

Until The Next Devaluation

If JPY resumes its rapid decline it is bound to stoke more tensions with Japan’s trading partners and rhetoric over currency wars. But in the short-term devaluation does reap rewards. US exports have been helped in the past by a weaker USD. Even in the UK with its ballooning current account deficit, a weaker GBP has helped exports grow outside Europe. The problem is its oversized financial sector – a sunset industry – and over-reliance on Europe.

Japan is now hoping to get some of that benefit as well, but it is likely to be temporary until another major trading country decides to weaken its currency in what is a zero sum game. The USD’s trade weighted index (USD value versus basket of other currencies) has been edging up recently – it’s quite possible that the Fed will seek to halt any long-term rally in the USD and if it does that will undermine the trade benefits gained by other countries from devaluing their currencies. But in the meantime, it sets up some nice trends for momentum and trend traders to take advantage of.

Interesting read Terry. Especially when you couple it with what Bob mentioned about the COT report.

All this noise about how short the YEN is makes me wonder. But that's just my inherent mistrust of the folks that put this kind of information out...LOL

Still, it tempts me to go all in shorting the sucker.

Thoughts.

thanks for the advice bro, its a pretty good amount I will be managing and I planned on the LPOA approach, along with a PAMM account. In the meantime I'm studying for my series 3, so if and when I can manage multiple large accounts I will have no legal troubles.