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  • #1,221
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:33am Mar 8, 2013 8:33am
Quoting snail69
Seneca great !

Just got almost 2RR out of this. 51.8 pips 27 stop
Glad I could help, now don't do it just because I said it. Go do some digging this weekend and convince yourself.
  • #1,222
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:34am Mar 8, 2013 8:34am
Quoting diamonddbw
True selfless guidance in the works here. Thank you all.

Pulled some nice pips off EU drop, getting out of last portion near last weeks low.

Watching levels closely for opportunity to re-enter short. Will only do so if things line up nicely and also only small size, or nothing.
If you are shorting now plan to hold it over the weekend. We have moved over 180 pips already today.
  • #1,223
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:35am Mar 8, 2013 8:35am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Glad I could help, now don't do it just because I said it. Go do some digging this weekend and convince yourself.

No worries Seneca, no freshman.
  • #1,224
  • Edited 9:11am Mar 8, 2013 8:37am | Edited 9:11am
To All,

I hope that my response to dedoctor resonates with some of the others here in the thread. I believe that SP has been very generous with a lot of information he laid out for everyone. I don't know if he intended to divulge as much as he has, but there is more that has not been said if you will just take the time to dig into the some of the market conditions.

This is not a knock on SP whatsoever, but those who are trading based on some of the details laid out on SP's method based on his philosophy are his. Be careful using someone else's methods without understanding for yourself why you would do so. Trading without knowledge of what you are doing and trying to accomplish is just not a good recipe.

Regarding the NFP trade this morning, note where your signal was located at on the charts. I understand many of you will see that, but those who just took note of this type of trade yesterday traded somewhat blindly. Such is the reason I felt the need to post this.

Good trading to to you all, and don't stop searching for answers...
  • #1,225
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:37am Mar 8, 2013 8:37am
Quoting snail69
No worries Seneca, no freshman.
I can tell, it was also for all the other to read.
  • #1,226
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:40am Mar 8, 2013 8:40am
Quoting Seneca pilot
If you are shorting now plan to hold it over the weekend. We have moved over 180 pips already today.
Daily Pivot at 30659, is exact 61.8 retracement of this move....
  • #1,227
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:42am Mar 8, 2013 8:42am
Quoting TantumVerum
To All,

I hope that my response to dedoctor resonates with some of the others here in the thread. I believe that SP has been very generous with a lot of information he laid out for everyone. I don't know if he intended to divulge as much as he has, but there is more that has not been said if you will just take the time to dig into the some of the market conditions.

This is not a knock on SP whatsoever, but those who are trading based on some of the details laid out on SP's method based on his philosophy are his. Be careful using someone...
I think most of the ones who have been with the thread all along knew to exit at daily or weekly low. Your advice is excellent and I wish more would heed it. I have a philosophy about trading and have tried to convey it but I can't have everyone here in my office for a month to convey all the nuance. This is why I plead for people to spend a ton of time with charts to find their own way.
  • #1,228
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:46am Mar 8, 2013 8:46am
We have hit the low from last week and are way past ATR. If any of you haven't taken the hint yet you should be out of your NFP trade now.
  • #1,229
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:49am Mar 8, 2013 8:49am
Based on the last few reactions to news it looks as though the dollar might be moving back to being the risk currency for a while instead of the safe haven. Over the past couple of years the euro has benefitted from good us news. It seems that US assets are now benefitting from good news instead. Time will tell.
  • #1,230
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:50am Mar 8, 2013 8:50am
Seneca, this might be better to put into bold:

"This is why I plead for people to spend a ton of time with charts to find their own way. "
  • #1,231
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:55am Mar 8, 2013 8:55am
Quoting snail69
Seneca, this might be better to put into bold:

"This is why I plead for people to spend a ton of time with charts to find their own way. "
  • #1,232
  • Mar 8, 2013 9:00am Mar 8, 2013 9:00am
This breakout also works on EJ. It isn't quite as reliable maybe 80ish percent but today was fantastic. With my broker the spread on EJ is quite low too only around 1.7 pips.
  • #1,233
  • Mar 8, 2013 9:27am Mar 8, 2013 9:27am
Quoting Seneca pilot
All of this is in the thread. Please read it and come back Monday with your questions to clarify things.
I will do that this weekend. Have you taught of including the fantastic four in your strategy? This I mean 00, 20, 50 and 80. I have been studying price around these zone and is amazing their reaction. Forgive me in my last post if my question sound dumb. Cheers
  • #1,234
  • Mar 8, 2013 9:30am Mar 8, 2013 9:30am
Quoting Seneca pilot
If you are shorting now plan to hold it over the weekend. We have moved over 180 pips already today.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I'm not anxious to give anything back to the market, so I would need to see a PB to @ least 1.3115 area before I have any interest in re-shorting. That's above the daily S1& 38% retrace of entire move. But I like 1.3123 even better becuz of 50% retrace, recent congestion which shows up on M5 chart today, and hourly s/r area as well.

It's looking as though the EU may not make it that high but that's ok too. I'll just grab my Sunday best clothes and head for Sears...

btw did anyone notice that today's 1st nfp break happened @ London & US opens?
  • #1,235
  • Mar 8, 2013 9:38am Mar 8, 2013 9:38am
Thanks Seneca!!...Yes it worked well on both- nice clean entry KISS principle in action





Quoting Seneca pilot
This breakout also works on EJ. It isn't quite as reliable maybe 80ish percent but today was fantastic. With my broker the spread on EJ is quite low too only around 1.7 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Entries in the wicks over and over **PVSRA rules!
  • #1,236
  • Mar 8, 2013 9:38am Mar 8, 2013 9:38am
Quoting dedoctor
I will do that this weekend. Have you taught of including the fantastic four in your strategy? This I mean 00, 20, 50 and 80. I have been studying price around these zone and is amazing their reaction. Forgive me in my last post if my question sound dumb. Cheers
They aren't reliable enough for me to enter trades using them. I sometimes use them for targets.
  • #1,237
  • Mar 8, 2013 9:43am Mar 8, 2013 9:43am
Quoting Seneca pilot
They aren't reliable enough for me to enter trades uaing them. I sometimes use them for targets.
That is where was my exit. Around 50.
  • #1,238
  • Mar 8, 2013 9:59am Mar 8, 2013 9:59am
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I'm not anxious to give anything back to the market, so I would need to see a PB to @ least 1.3115 area before I have any interest in re-shorting. That's above the daily S1& 38% retrace of entire move. But I like 1.3123 even better becuz of 50% retrace, recent congestion which shows up on M5 chart today, and hourly s/r area as well.

It's looking as though the EU may not make it that high but that's ok too. I'll just grab my Sunday best clothes and head for Sears...

btw did anyone notice that today's...
As you seem to love closes I want you to do a project this weekend. I have included a chart to get you started. I recommend this pair for trading London closes. Red line is Tuesday London close. Green line is Wednesday London close. Blue line is Thursday London close. Look at what often happens in the shaded boxes during Frankfurt and London. This is how you develop a trading method. Find something that happens more often than random, go back through as much data as you can get and validate the idea. Write down how far each trade goes. Write down how far each trade draws down. Get some averages and compare those averages to the daily ATR during the same time period. This will give you a good idea how large to make your stops and targets. Then you can devise a trading method that gives you a good RR.

Do this this weekend with at least one year of data. A one hour chart is fine. What would you use for a stop? What would you use for a target? What is the hit rate? What would your non compounded returns be? Please come back here on Monday and give the answers. If I had you in my office for a month of mentoring this would be how you spend your day. Our focus would be very little on trading and very much on learning how to devise a method you trust. That is the key to trading successfully.

This isn't just for Diamond, everyone reading this should do it, you will learn a great deal.

A chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj london close.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,239
  • Mar 8, 2013 10:00am Mar 8, 2013 10:00am
good day again and beautiful us open.Question,,, with the original breakout and reversal method mentioned in post 80, did you get busted. With the uk opening i came within half a pip of being busted but it went well. and the news breakout is another good old trading method
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,240
  • Mar 8, 2013 10:05am Mar 8, 2013 10:05am
Quoting billytt
good day again and beautiful us open.Question,,, with the original breakout and reversal method mentioned in post 80, did you get busted. With the uk opening i came within half a pip of being busted but it went well. and the news breakout is another good old trading method
Stopped out at BE, had moved the stop up from yesterday's long as soon as the one hour breakout occurred this morning. I would not enter it this morning as NFP was coming and I only trade the NFP breakout on this day.

Yes the NFP breakout I use is an old pit trader method. They used ten minute but I find that fifteen works better for forex.
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