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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #1,881
  • Mar 7, 2013 10:51am Mar 7, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Geppy
Dude, I will be holding all I can carry
No you won't, you are much to careful to take that risk!
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  • #1,882
  • Mar 7, 2013 10:53am Mar 7, 2013 10:53am
This is what has me wondering about too much futher up. I have no idea how long they can keep weakening the yen but it's been respecting this lower TL for a few weeks now with a big 50% just below.

The pound is at a "fair" support point but obvioulsy not feeling too strong itself the past few weeks.

If both the yen and pound should turn, we could be in for some chop on GJ. The other possible combinations are obvious. Then there's last months bearish engulfing on GJ.....

It's like everything across the indexes is right at that point of...??? I think my head hurts...lol
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  • #1,883
  • Mar 7, 2013 11:04am Mar 7, 2013 11:04am
Quoting KillerWhale
No you won't, you are much to careful to take that risk!
LOL
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  • #1,884
  • Mar 7, 2013 11:19am Mar 7, 2013 11:19am
Finally everything is falling into place.
EU is up .......great
Ucad is going down .......I closed my longs@ 10321 and shorted from there. It's now 1.0290

The things I need now

1 Sleep
2 After sleep, a big filthy Dennys breakfast with too many eggs and too much grease and fat and cholesterol.
3 A dark haired lady with brown or green eyes
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,885
  • Mar 7, 2013 12:22pm Mar 7, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Finally everything is falling into place.
EU is up .......great
Ucad is going down .......I closed my longs@ 10321 and shorted from there. It's now 1.0290

The things I need now

1 Sleep
2 After sleep, a big filthy Dennys breakfast with too many eggs and too much grease and fat and cholesterol.
3 A dark haired lady with brown or green eyes
I like brunettes too my man.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #1,886
  • Mar 7, 2013 12:49pm Mar 7, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting KillerWhale
If we get to 141.50 I will definitely go big time long
same here, just closed my long, will open another if we see a pullback to 141.50
  • #1,887
  • Mar 7, 2013 12:56pm Mar 7, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting mlambole
same here, just closed my long, will open another if we see a pullback to 141.50
We are also at a good place to short, the 4H down trend could resume. I can't take both longs and short with MB trading, that sucks
  • #1,888
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:07pm Mar 7, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting mlambole
same here, just closed my long, will open another if we see a pullback to 141.50
Possible pullback to 141.5 and then up to 144.00?
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #1,889
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:13pm Mar 7, 2013 1:13pm
Hey Bro... Sure man...

Glad you made money... hope I see some vouches on that one... that is for those of you who stayed in it...

To answer your questions... Going into the week I ran a fib analysis on the EW sequences and basically did my best to derive the count and take the macro trend and apply it on a mico level and vice versa.... doing this allows me to see exactly where the next prediction is........ like for example.... heres my next trade....

My small count is hurtin a bit... the wave within wave shit can kill me sometimes... esp on no sleep... like which is wave 4 and will it test again... sometimes that small gets hard to see the forest through the trees....

But heres what I got for you guys next.... I am going to call these the Free Money Signals... because if you listen and use proper leverage... its free money... esp on this pair rt now...

As you know my target was 142.80 just below the 143 line... it corresponded with where other wave threes were going relative to their original position.....

Sooo... that said.... I see a nice shorting opportunity here... and for those of you looking for big money... this is a big money trade...

PA Should get itself up around 144.... and then.... drop like a rocking fock.... haha.... She may not make it that high - but prob she will... To be Safe... Scale in around 142.8 and see where she reverses... pretty sure we should see a tap of 144... before we see 132.....

Once we see 132... we are reversing for the HUGE MONEY Million Dollar Move....

So those of you that want big Money.... Heres the Trade.... Short around 143..... (*Ideally btw 143-144) I only say around 143 bc we havent gotten into the 143-144 range handle yet.... but we will....

To be on the safe side... 142.80-143 good entry points (143.7 if you've got patience and balls).... for our short down to 132....) .... leave enough room for her to run... stop at 144.60 (Shouldnt get there)




Quoting elhwaan
Hello Teddicus
nice prediction, Although all of us doubted in your prediction during the fighting in this pair during the last two days
can you give us hint how did you get this predition , technical or fundamantal analysis, Elliot wave analysis or option Barrier or what?
you got my vouch
  • #1,890
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:28pm Mar 7, 2013 1:28pm
Here is what I am doing given this... I am running whats called a hedge strategy.... Although my reads have been fairly on point lately.... the swings + my intention to make GOOD money using PROPER Leverage at the right time and in the right place.... has jepordized my ability to stay in the game... Mind you I'm not used to trading pairs that Move like this one.... All that plus that challenge of seeing the forest through the trees on the smaller timeframe wave sequences.... Has me now using....

Hedging Strategy... all you guys that live in the US and have a US Broker.... You can't do this... for that you can thank Barney Frank and Chris Dodd...

Basically I have a long and a short in the same pair running at the same time... leaving my leverage free to use on another trade if I wish... securing my account from ANY Fluxuation in the market (All I pay is the commission/spread/swap) and they move in tandem....

Given that strategy.... and for all you Int'l Traders out there...

The Lot size is identical... its taking both sides of the trade and playing the fluxuation... I caution against this unless you have levels and targets in mind...

So My long Target is 143.80 and my short has no target.... So as the Long Makes its way up to 143.80.... I make the profit that corresponds with the running loss and when it hits 143.80 *My TP*, the long will close, and Since I have Iron Wall Resistance up around 144 the figure.... The trade will close at 143.80.... run up around 144... then reverse and my loss disappears and runs into profit as the trade goes my way....

Much better strategy for me on a pair like this... and it insulates me from small count wave drops and I cant see because I have issues timing them... and I just close when they hit my targets and let them run as the market reverses.
  • #1,891
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:20pm Mar 7, 2013 2:20pm
Here are the potential Scenarios I see .... The Goal is the same... the way it gets there, well that may be a variety of ways....

Heres what I see making sense.... If we are continuing upward and our mid term wave isn't complete yet... we can see a drop down to 141.80ish (70's and change)..... which makes sense if we see this last boost up as a new wave 1.... prob is it looks like more of a wave 5 for me... and after it... idk how we will get to 144, but we will... so here is a scenario I see making sense as well...

We see a drop test of the wave 1 that ended in this recent wave 5.... Testing around 139.80.... Which corresponds with a trendline right there (fx is all about confluence).... and would make a perfect support level to bounce higher up to around where we are now... current wave frequency.... maybe a touch higher... before dipping down a bit lower maybe 141 and change on wave 4... before heading up to 144 then handle and ending our correction reversal... continuing the correction down to 132....

As I said my small count can be off... so I'm hedging... drops to 139.8 and holds... I close short and add longs up to 143.8..... Then I go short HEAVY from 143.9/144... all the way down to 132.
  • #1,892
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:47pm Mar 7, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting Teddicus
Here are the potential Scenarios I see .... The Goal is the same... the way it gets there, well that may be a variety of ways....

Heres what I see making sense.... If we are continuing upward and our mid term wave isn't complete yet... we can see a drop down to 141.80ish (70's and change)..... which makes sense if we see this last boost up as a new wave 1.... prob is it looks like more of a wave 5 for me... and after it... idk how we will get to 144, but we will... so here is a scenario I see making sense as well...

We see a drop test of the...

you see a 300 pip drop, what fundamentals would drive that?
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  • #1,893
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:51pm Mar 7, 2013 2:51pm
Quoting Teddicus
We see a drop test of the wave 1 that ended in this recent wave 5.... Testing around 139.80.... Which corresponds with a trendline right there (fx is all about confluence).... and would make a perfect support level to bounce higher up to around where we are now... current wave frequency.... maybe a touch higher... before dipping down a bit lower maybe 141 and change on wave 4... before heading up to 144 then handle and ending our correction reversal... continuing the correction down to 132....

As I said my small count can be off... so I'm hedging......
Sounds reasonable from the fundamental view, it's the end of the Japanese fiscal year when traditionally JPY strengthens. But on the other hand, all jpy crosses, UJ mostly look very bullish with no intention to stop here. Maybe 144 would be the key point. Appreciate your analyses, by the way.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #1,894
  • Edited 4:11pm Mar 7, 2013 3:57pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting Teddicus
Hedging Strategy... all you guys that live in the US and have a US Broker.... You can't do this... for that you can thank Barney Frank and Chris Dodd...
Lol. Hedging never was a big concern for me.

I see that you put a lot of weight in Elliot wave theory... But here's the sad reality. You can almost make it fit anything into whichever wave count you want it to be.
  • #1,895
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:26pm Mar 7, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Finally everything is falling into place.
EU is up .......great
Ucad is going down .......I closed my longs@ 10321 and shorted from there. It's now 1.0290

The things I need now

1 Sleep
2 After sleep, a big filthy Dennys breakfast with too many eggs and too much grease and fat and cholesterol.
3 A dark haired lady with brown or green eyes
And ....... I've got it all
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,896
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:34pm Mar 7, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Lol. Hedging never was a big concern for me.

I see that you put a lot of weight in Elliot wave theory... But here's the sad reality. You can almost make it fit anything into whichever wave count you want it to be.
Whatever dude. I have a 17.834ema that's supporting price right now... TIME TO GO LONG!!!!
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  • #1,897
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:35pm Mar 7, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting KillerWhale
And ....... I've got it all
oh jeez... trust me, I'm not adverse to the ladies (at all), but let's not turn this into the EUR/USD thread.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,898
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:36pm Mar 7, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting KillerWhale
And ....... I've got it all
Porno huh? LOL
Trade at your own risk.
  • #1,899
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:43pm Mar 7, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting Geppy
oh jeez... trust me, I'm not adverse to the ladies (at all), but let's not turn this into the EUR/USD thread.
ok
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,900
  • Mar 7, 2013 6:07pm Mar 7, 2013 6:07pm
Tempted to try some short here in the 142.80 area, but I don't wanna get burned

Gonna wait instead... I still think we see a retrace to at least the 142 area.
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