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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,121
  • Mar 6, 2013 1:32am Mar 6, 2013 1:32am
Quoting Vantage
EUR GU EJ 6 Mar

EUR - D closed positive in line with the short term bias up, still on lower high lower low cycle. No bias can go either way today.

GU - D closed a shooting star, lower high lower low cycle in tact. Bias down.

EJ - The tight sideways price action continues, no bias.

Very difficult trading conditions at the moment and it looks like entering as close as possible to the extremes of ranges will be more important than ever.
diff icult trading conditions ..MM Gees glad to hear you say that.. thought it was just me.. 13 trades to aussie day.. for 25 points..so easy last week..
  • #6,122
  • Mar 6, 2013 1:55am Mar 6, 2013 1:55am
2...... 4 hr pictures.. one EUUD.. and second.. EURX.. in my opnion just based on raw charts the EUUD is headed for hier ground.. just my opnion of course..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,123
  • Mar 6, 2013 2:20am Mar 6, 2013 2:20am
Quoting danc
2...... 4 hr pictures.. one EUUD.. and second.. EURX.. in my opnion just based on raw charts the EUUD is headed for hier ground.. just my opnion of course..
Yes agree 4 hr is on hl, D still on lh. The 4hr move up has not been that convincing so still think there may be some push lower, even if to complete a D double bottom/hl. Of course 4hr could just carry on up.
  • #6,124
  • Mar 6, 2013 5:07am Mar 6, 2013 5:07am
4 hr picture EUJY.. i reckon above 12206.. will go hier ground.. been 1 min trade for a few pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,125
  • Mar 6, 2013 5:18am Mar 6, 2013 5:18am
Quoting danc
4 hr picture EUJY.. i reckon above 12206.. will go hier ground.. been 1 min trade for a few pips
Above 122.06 yes it may go. I am completely about EJ at the moment. Obviously something has to give at some point but I don't see anything yet. Of course as you say we're not at 122.06 and would like to see solid candles to get there. Until then scalping is the way to go if thats your cup of tea.
  • #6,126
  • Edited 10:15am Mar 6, 2013 9:47am | Edited 10:15am
On hourly chart, doji followed by negative close ended the weak CT pre-US move. 15min lh entry short at 1.5084, moved stop to be at lows to see if we could break down but price came back up to stop me out.
Although the following hourly candle had a long lower wick price couldn't break above so took next lh at 1.5074 after 3-bar reversal at the weekly pivot, out for +23 when price stalled at the 50 level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu_20130603_oanda.gif Size: 35 KB
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,127
  • Mar 6, 2013 1:30pm Mar 6, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting matheszabi
Well, I have one. It is ranging, accumulating energy for breakout. This will push at least one major currency pair like 50 pip, if until that no major movement.

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1.3037 ->12983 = 54 pip

What a fail 0 Vouch trader I am , oh already got 1
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I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #6,128
  • Mar 6, 2013 10:12pm Mar 6, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting Ian
On hourly chart, doji followed by negative close ended the weak CT pre-US move. 15min lh entry short at 1.5084, moved stop to be at lows to see if we could break down but price came back up to stop me out.
Although the following hourly candle had a long lower wick price couldn't break above so took next lh at 1.5074 after 3-bar reversal at the weekly pivot, out for +23 when price stalled at the 50 level.
Very nice.

Mrs V's last trade of the day was this one. Didn't get the move you did which followed. 15 min lower high, 3 bar reversal back into trend, signal candle little/no lower wick.
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  • #6,129
  • Mar 6, 2013 10:24pm Mar 6, 2013 10:24pm
Quoting matheszabi
Attachment

1.3037 ->12983 = 54 pip

What a fail 0 Vouch trader I am , oh already got 1
Attachment
On this methodology as a general rule we try and enter on candles that have closed with little/no lower wick in direction of trade. The gravestone doji 2 candles before your sell and the lower high 3 candles after would be good examples.

You might have another strategy for entries which is fine of course, but I just wanted to make that clear.

Can you check your numbers please, 54 pips and your trade summary don't seem to agree.
  • #6,130
  • Mar 6, 2013 10:38pm Mar 6, 2013 10:38pm
Recap 6 Mar
EUR - View was: D closed positive in line with the short term bias up, still on lower high lower low cycle. No bias can go either way today.
A 4hr hour doji, double top that closed before London open set up a move down.

GU - View was: D closed a shooting star, lower high lower low cycle in tact. Bias down.
Bias down played outstarting with a 1hr 3 bar reversal going into London open which continued into US session.

EJ - View was: The tight sideways price action continues, no bias.
I had posted that I was finding EJ difficult to read at the moment, this did not change at all on the day.
  • #6,131
  • Mar 6, 2013 10:53pm Mar 6, 2013 10:53pm
EUR GU EJ 7 Mar

EUR - The moves up over the previous 2 days was a rally in downtrend and the D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. It does appear that we have divergence on D and 4hr. Price action would need to confirm this so to buy we'd be looking for a 1hr higher low to change flow upwards. There is a potential resistance level at last weeks low. We would expect the solid D negative close candle to follow through lower. Bias is down until flow confirms otherwise.

GU - Very similar picture to EUR with the D close and divergences. Again though bias down until flow confirms otherwise.

EJ - Not much clearer than yesterday for me. No bias.
  • #6,132
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:02am Mar 7, 2013 4:02am
Quoting danc
4 hr picture EUJY.. i reckon above 12206.. will go hier ground.. been 1 min trade for a few pips
as per post last night.. EUJY.. 4 hr.. just closed for 65
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #6,133
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:12am Mar 7, 2013 4:12am
Quoting danc
as per post last night.. EUJY.. 4 hr.. just closed for 65
Nice one. I must admit I struggled to read it earlier, good call.

After a few days of drift hopefully ej is now back and running as per usual.
  • #6,134
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:34am Mar 7, 2013 4:34am
V..have taken similar one.. based on 4 hr and 15 min but similsr settup.. NZJY..didnt post cause i know u dont follow
  • #6,135
  • Mar 7, 2013 7:48am Mar 7, 2013 7:48am
2 buys on EJ after missing out on some clean moves this morning (not in front of computer).

Buy 122.64 for +25 and 123.05 for +50. Will post charts later.
  • #6,136
  • Mar 7, 2013 9:30am Mar 7, 2013 9:30am
Quoting Vantage
2 buys on EJ after missing out on some clean moves this morning (not in front of computer).

Buy 122.64 for +25 and 123.05 for +50. Will post charts later.
Heres the chart for the 2 trades. Higher lows, 3 bar reversals back into trend, little/no upper wicks on set up candles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,137
  • Mar 7, 2013 10:17pm Mar 7, 2013 10:17pm
Recap 7 Mar

EUR - View was: The moves up over the previous 2 days was a rally in downtrend and the D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. It does appear that we have divergence on D and 4hr. Price action would need to confirm this so to buy we'd be looking for a 1hr higher low to change flow upwards. There is a potential resistance level at last weeks low. We would expect the solid D negative close candle to follow through lower. Bias is down until flow confirms otherwise.
We did have a 1hr higher low following divergence. The major move up was after the interest rates decisions/news conference.

GU - View was: Very similar picture to EUR with the D close and divergences. Again though bias down until flow confirms otherwise.
We did have a double bottom and move up after news.

EJ - View was: Not much clearer than yesterday for me. No bias.
Things cleared up quickly breaking the range higher and then gave clear higher lows on 15 min chart.
  • #6,138
  • Mar 7, 2013 10:36pm Mar 7, 2013 10:36pm
EUR GU EJ 8 Mar

Non-farm payroll today so as always care is recommended.

EUR - D double bottom, 3 bar reversal engulfing close after the divergence, good candles like this should follow through higher. Interestingly we stopped right on the previously identified resistance level 1.3120. 4hr broke above 1.3070 so the 4hr lower high lower low cycle is broken. 1hr now on higher high higher low. As the D chart has completed a double bottom over 6 days we have a valid D reversal pattern. Bias up.

GU - D closed a doji and divergence could still play out. 4hr still on lower high lower low flow. 1hr latest is lower high lower low. We are below the RSI 50 level on the 3 main time frames. The D doji by itself is not a high probability reversal signal but a positive D close following would be. For now bias still down.

EJ - Bias up.
  • #6,139
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:03am Mar 8, 2013 2:03am
picture EUUD.. i am short 3082.. 15 min chart.. my initial stop is 3106.. but will prob bail before then.. if i think the situation has changed.. i have taken this position.. based on my take on the raw chart.. my own form of pivot lines.. the 20 ema on various time frames.. and what i see on the USDX.. which may be totaly wrong..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 61 KB
  • #6,140
  • Mar 8, 2013 3:23am Mar 8, 2013 3:23am
Quoting danc
picture EUUD.. i am short 3082.. 15 min chart.. my initial stop is 3106.. but will prob bail before then.. if i think the situation has changed.. i have taken this position.. based on my take on the raw chart.. my own form of pivot lines.. the 20 ema on various time frames.. and what i see on the USDX.. which may be totaly wrong..
Mrs V out of action this morning but if she had been in front of the computer I am sure she would have been totally fixated on EJ. A thing of beauty when she is running, EJ I mean.
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